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Market valuations

edited October 2021 in Other Investing
What measurement, metric, guide or guru (if any) do you observe?

I don’t have any particular monitor - except I follow trends by looking at charts and can’t help thinking about the half-dozen or so serious corrections I’ve witnessed in my lifetime. I try and listen to all the educated pundits. But they appear largely largely clueless. Opinions are all over the place. There’s long time bear Shiller, of course. And Howard Marks sounds concerned. Ray Dalio was big into gold (defensively) a year ago. It’s finally starting to move. Even David Giroux has voiced concerns.

Here’s an October article on the Buffett Indicator

Following the media is, of course, counter-productive. In a downward markets the general tenor becomes bearish and the bearish prognosticators get rolled out. But in an up market, reasons abound why the bull will continue. I do feel Barrons comes closest to providing an accurate perspective - though both bulls and bears appear there.

Biggest concern? All the sharp downturns I’ve lived through began with higher prevailing interest rates. This did two things: (1) It buffered the downside for investors who held some bonds and (2) It allowed for the monetary authorities (ie “Fed”) to stimulate by lowering rates. With rates as low as they are now, the game has changed.

A second concern is all the “hot” money that has entered in recent years thru forums like Robinhood. Could make things interesting in a 20-30% selloff. Could exacerbate the problem.

One thought that occurs to me is that ultra low bond yields have pushed everybody and his neighbor into riskier assets. (TINA). One possible “out” here. The dollar could depreciate sharply thereby making those “nominal” paper gains worth less in real purchasing power. - in a sense justifying the higher prices. In that case, investors would be well served hanging tight.

Comments

  • "The dollar could depreciate sharply thereby making those “nominal” paper gains worth less in real purchasing power."

    That's already happening... it's called "inflation", which our leaders would have you believe doesn't exist in the "core", whatever that is. Evidently this "core" doesn't include food, housing, or transportation because they are "volatile", but then, who really needs those anyway?

    Orwell would understand.
  • edited October 2021
    @OJ

    the second figure shows what you are pointing out

    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/15/opinion/us-economy-inflation.html
  • edited October 2021
    “What if the discount rate is higher or we lower the assumed yield to reflect the uncertainty surrounding buybacks? Today’s market would appear overvalued. On the other hand, perhaps the pandemic has temporarily depressed dividends and buybacks—and the buyback yield will jump sharply in the year ahead, making stocks seem relatively cheap.”

    Reminds one of the line about “a one-handed economist.”

    That’s a very thoughtful piece overall. And Yikes - Mentions that the S&P fell 34% in early 2020. I’d sure like another crack at those prices.

    @Old_Joe - What you say is true. But inflation’s probably averaged 5-7% annually in recent years. Equity prices seem way out ahead of that (by S&P and other averages). If inflation were to catch up to the market gains of recent years we’d be looking at much worse than present level.
    -

    One thought …

    I’ve been taught that in investing there exists a rough correlation between risk and reward. So how does one reconcile 1-2% returns on “safe” bonds now for several years along with double-digit gains in equities over many of those same years? Do today’s investors in the S&P index (or similar fund) really feel like they’re taking 5 or 10 times the amount of risk that’s inherent in an AAA rated corporate or government bond? That’s where I’m having some trouble reconciling all this. Risk / reward seems out-of-whack.
  • "Risk / reward seems out-of-whack. " +1
  • Age is one substantial factor in my sense of risk tolerance. Current expenses are another. I'm not getting younger, and my expenses are actually rising. Safety, rather than growth is my primary concern by now. Yes, bonds are paying next to nothing, and the safest of bonds barely pay anything at all. Looking at the big picture, I'll take the step into riskier bonds, which after all are not so VERY risky--- in order to produce SOME kind of measurable profit. PRSNX is barely holding its own. Weaker dollar. I suppose it's due to the expected reaction to the Demublicans' (sic) big spending plans? The stock market at these current price-levels is prohibitive. The monthly divs I'm still re-investing from my bond funds will be a lifesaver, if I ever DO need them to pay monthly bills. Inflation will NOT be so very "transitory." (Yellen, Powell.)
  • edited October 2021
    Here’s a colorful (albeit slanted) blurb from this week’s Barron’s under the title “The Striking Price: A Smart Trade for Heady Times” - by Steven Sears

    “Now, almost 100 years later, the market construct has seemingly changed. The shoeshine boy's figurative heirs have grown rich buying stocks, digital currencies, and other risk assets … The S&P 500 index just hit another record high, and activity has reached a fever pitch. The options market, which enables investors to magnify their stock bets at relatively low cost, has seen daily trading volumes rise to about 40 million contracts a day, up from maybe a million in 2000.”

    Barron’s 10/25/2021


    * Represents the views of one contributor. The publication contains both “bull” and “bear” case analyses.
  • edited October 2021
    Requoting from @hank's post -

    "The options market, which enables investors to magnify their stock bets at relatively low cost, has seen daily trading volumes rise to about 40 million contracts a day, up from maybe a million in 2000.”

    Thought worth repeating!
  • I believe the quote is 40 times that of 2000 ?
  • edited October 2021
    Derf said:

    I believe the quote is 40 times that of 2000 ?

    I checked. The quote is accurate. Of course it would be 40X as well - provided his numbers are accurate.

    Here it is again: “ … has seen daily trading volumes rise to about 40 million contracts a day, up from maybe a million in 2000.”
  • edited October 2021
    Crash said:

    Age is one substantial factor in my sense of risk tolerance. Current expenses are another. I'm not getting younger, and my expenses are actually rising. Safety, rather than growth is my primary concern by now. Yes, bonds are paying next to nothing, and the safest of bonds barely pay anything at all. Looking at the big picture, I'll take the step into riskier bonds, which after all are not so VERY risky--- in order to produce SOME kind of measurable profit. PRSNX is barely holding its own. Weaker dollar. I suppose it's due to the expected reaction to the Demublicans' (sic) big spending plans? The stock market at these current price-levels is prohibitive. The monthly divs I'm still re-investing from my bond funds will be a lifesaver, if I ever DO need them to pay monthly bills. Inflation will NOT be so very "transitory." (Yellen, Powell.)

    @Crash. I have quite a bit in bond funds myself. It’s definitely not a comfortable feeling.:) My model is about 35% growth, 30+% income and 30+% alternatives. I use DODLX and DODIX quite heavily on the income end. Also PRIHX which has been a steady-Eddy. Who knows? You need to allocate somewhere and equities don’t strike me as a bargain right now, nor a place where a 75 year old should be tying up all his money.


  • edited October 2021
    Here’s a good read on the subject.

    As stocks soar to historical highs, some experts say conditions ripe for correction

    Odd photo of Chairman Powell. Is he floating bubbles?

    image

  • @BaluBalu

    If this is true...and accurate...

    The options market, which enables investors to magnify their stock bets at relatively low cost, has seen daily trading volumes rise to about 40 million contracts a day, up from maybe a million in 2000.”

    With the subsequent increase by trillions more in notional derivative volume...We'd be fools to NOT own ICE (Intercontinental Exchange)....just sayin'....NOT a recommendation...just posting for entertainment value. I do not know you and do not know anything about anything other than MMT is the kookiest economic concept ever and will lead to the down fall of the USA if the current leadership in the US falls for it.

    Best,

    Baseball Fan
  • The last time I saw a pic like Powell staring into something was Gandalf looking into one of the seven palantir to try to discern the immediate future...
  • har

    now, that's called a standing hed
  • Howdy folks,

    @Hank can't say I disagree with anything. Is the market highly valued? Yeppers. Overvalued? Define overvalued. It feels very stretched. Yeah, it's the only game in town and the whole world is cash flush. How can it not be overvalued.

    Problems? You've got several Black Swans circling like vultures . . . and those are the ones we know about. The Fed is screwed. They're so far behind the curve on inflation and tapering that they have no power WSFever. Besides. with the insider trading scandal, I no longer will bet on Powell staying. Congress is a disaster as always so no help there.

    Be careful, this smells like bubbles I've enjoyed before. Perhaps most like 1999.

    and so it goes,

    peace and wear the damn mask,

    rono
  • Good discussion. Lots to consider. Paying attention to VIX, earnings and expectations, and treasury yields. Also looking at the ongoing rate of growth in GDP, the trajectory of the spike in inflation (and the related supply chain bottlenecks), and the course of the pandemic. Like @rono, starting to wonder if Powell's days might be numbered. But, I think the market want him to stay. Think its to early to conclude the Fed is at the end of its rope.
  • edited October 2021
    Appreciate everybody’s views. I added some DOG & TAIL today. Very small amounts (under 2% holdings). But may serve as a “speed brake” if things start getting crazy. Frankly, bonds aren’t likely to perform that function today. Obviously, not meant as long term holdings.

    I realize there are many different viewpoints here and among the pros. There is one school of thought that defined contribution plans coupled with target date funds being the “default” option have been artificially supporting the big stock averages - esp. the S&P. I don’t know. But think it’s possible.

    Metals popped today. Gold, silver, platinum all strong. You don’t need a lot of exposure to the miners to benefit on a good day like this.
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