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Stock and Bond Return Forecasts

edited January 2021 in Other Investing
While the "expert" forecasts are interesting to note, I wouldn't implement any major portfolio changes based on this information. True to form, GMO is pessimistic once again.
The firm's predictions will be correct one of these days!
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Comments

  • This is beginning of a new year and forecasting is expected. Soon there will be another round of roundtable forecasting from Barrons experts. I will stick to my plan this year.
  • GMO: Grantham, yes? I take what he says with a pound of salt.
  • GMO stands for Generally Miserable Outlook !
  • edited January 2021
    The economy will get back on solid ground when this pandemic is overcome by the vaccine. The rollout and getting them to the people has proven to be challenging, but it can be done. It was completely naive to say that everybody can get vaccinated by November 2020, or more like being a liar. It is about time to have the National Defense Authorization Act put forth. The sooner this pandemic is brought under control the quicker we all will return to our normal lives.

    The broadening of the market to other sectors in late 2020 indicated that US economy will return with the vaccine. China, New Zealand and Australia are already leading their recovery, so will US.
  • >> ... when this pandemic is overcome by the vaccine.

    I do not think that is how this is going to proceed.

    >. The sooner this pandemic is brought under control the quicker we all will return to our normal lives.

    man, I sure want to smoke and drink whatever you're having.
  • edited January 2021
    @davidrmoran - how do you think it will proceed? I actually think that getting the disease at least to a manageable level will be significant. Why do you disagree with that?

    Adding - FWIW I haven't a clue, just looking for other thoughts or opinions. I think that the only thing many can agree on was that the pandemic wasn't handled at all by the last administration.
  • Just that 'overcome by the vaccine' is probably not the way to look at it ahead, and will prove not to have been the right characterization of any inflection point.

    So perhaps different wording.

    Viruses get dealt with in any number of ways, combo cocktails (hiv), ongoing adaptive approaches (influenzas), near-eradication without many mutations (polio, rubella, zoster family, paramyxo, others), low incidence (dengue and such), with lots of others in the last group.

    We know a ton about this sars family, but not enough; and of course yes about process and enforcement and buy-in among the US live-free rubes.

    I haven't a clue either, but I strongly expect that this round of sars is, like Trump himself, simply a JV warmup, a practice game, for the real thing, not far off.
  • Crash said:

    GMO: Grantham, yes? I take what he says with a pound of salt.

    +5million @crash

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