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  • People who spout financial and economic prognostications with certainty are rarely held to account so it's nice to see this.
  • @sfnative- Nice to see that there's at least two of us here!

    Regards- OJ
  • Some wonderful quotes from that article-

    • The ideologically-driven narratives of the ever-wrongs make for bad policy, poor economic analysis, and terrible investment strategies.

    • They continue to say things will happen that keep on not happening. They promise an immediate uptick in capital expenditures, but there has been none. They say job growth will improve, but it is actually worse than the prior few years.

    • A temporary GDP sugar high, a surge in stock buybacks and dividend increases, and a surge in deficits. All very foreseeable.

    And this absolutely right-on quote from Upton Sinclair:

    • “It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.”


    (Emphasis added.)
  • Like I keep saying to individual #1 "It's better to keep your mouth shut and just appear stupid than to open it and remove all doubt." Never listens.
  • As I recall, American corporations were sitting on the largest cash horde ever. (Not positive about the "ever", but it was at least huge.) So lack of cash was not an obstacle for capital expenditures.

    Maybe handing consumers more cash would have spurred demand, stimulating investment by companies. Handing that cash over to companies wasn't going to. This is not rocket science.
  • Loved this exchange from the Ritholtz article:

    Michael Dell was recently owned in Davos by MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson when he mused about where in the world – ever – such high marginal tax rates had ever worked:

    “No, I am not supportive of that, and I don’t think it would help the growth of the U.S. economy,” he said in response to questions from The Washington Post.

    When Dell was asked to explain why he thinks that, he said, “Name a country where that’s worked — ever.”

    Co-panelist and MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson jumped in to offer an answer: “the United States.”
  • yeah, this Davos stuff is getting a lot of play; look at (and drill down as interested) the last 30-40-50 exchanges here:

    https://twitter.com/paulkrugman

    I don't know what the future holds; it seems the odds of getting back to the spirit of grudging sharing of the 1950s and before are way low. Plutocrats have insane powers for holding onto moneys they do not need by any stretch of the imagination. Historical ignorance and miseducation are rampant.
  • Many super-rich people make the mistake of thinking they are super-smart, instead of super-lucky, and they act accordingly, with bravado and a false sense of certainty. (Warren Buffet might be an exception: my guess would be he considers himself super-disciplined.) This ties in with the observation about historical ignorance. So does something retired Justice Anthony Kennedy said the other day: “I am so concerned with the egocentrism that the cyber age has brought us. Our young people in the cyber age don’t think the past is important. ... If it’s not on your screen, it’s not important.” I don't think there is any reason at all to confine such an observation to "young people," as wilful ignorance is widespread among all age groups.
  • edited February 2019
    sfnative said:

    Many super-rich people make the mistake of thinking they are super-smart, instead of super-lucky, and they act accordingly, with bravado and a false sense of certainty. (Warren Buffet might be an exception ...)

    Other exceptions might be: Bezos, Dalio, Musk. (Lord knows the last has lots of other “issues.”)

    I’m not sure Individual #1 is all that rich. Really? Would like to have a look at his tax returns before concluding that. However, he’s clearly not very smart in the conventional sense of the word. But there are different kinds of smart. Some people are very astute at reading the feelings and reactions of others and in manipulating people using that ability (ie: threats, fear, intimidation, pie-in-the-sky promises). This they learn at an early age and - as they say - Practice makes perfect. It’s not a type of “smarts” I admire or value. But give him credit. He is quite smart in that regard.
  • even if they are supersmart and "deserve" every penny
  • sfnative said:

    Many super-rich people make the mistake of thinking they are super-smart, instead of super-lucky, and they act accordingly, with bravado and a false sense of certainty. (Warren Buffet might be an exception: my guess would be he considers himself super-disciplined.) This ties in with the observation about historical ignorance. So does something retired Justice Anthony Kennedy said the other day: “I am so concerned with the egocentrism that the cyber age has brought us. Our young people in the cyber age don’t think the past is important. ... If it’s not on your screen, it’s not important.” I don't think there is any reason at all to confine such an observation to "young people," as wilful ignorance is widespread among all age groups.

    Totally, utterly, terribly TRUE.
  • And check this out --- the econ reality of our US adult lifetimes, forfeiting moolah to the already wealthy

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/03/opinion/democrats-wealth-tax.html
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