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Uncertainty

Observant1
edited January 24 in Off-Topic
An interesting perspective by former economist Jim Paulsen.

"Among the daily whiplash of current events, careful what you wish for.
As shown below, ‘uncertainty’ has frequently been an investor’s best friend.
Historically, the best returns from the stock market have come when uncertainty was the highest.
Peace & stability may be emotionally attractive but could prove boringly unsatisfying
when it comes to investment returns."

https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/careful-what-you-wish-for

Comments

  • larryB
    That’s a great theory for my adult kids but not so much for us old guys and gals.
  • Observant1
    edited January 24
    Jim Paulsen made the following statements in a recent Barron's article.

    "For retirees, it’s natural to become more cautious when it comes to investing.
    'I think as people get older, you get more scared,' Paulsen, 68, tells Barron’s."

    "But don’t let fear put your portfolio into a defensive crouch.
    Retirees should have an asset allocation that 'takes them out of harm’s way,'
    Paulsen says, but once you have that set, you shouldn’t let the headlines sway you."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/top-stocks/uncertainty-got-you-down-it-may-be-the-ticket-to-stock-market-gains/ar-AA1UHV6p
  • larryB
    There are headlines and there is today. These are not times like any other. Short of the civil war these might be the worst of times for Americans who are paying attention. Imho
  • Observant1
    I dislike the Trump administration's policies and actions.
    In my opinion, Donald J. Trump is an illegitimate president because he fomented the Jan. 6 insurrection.
    Instead of "Making American Great Again," he has caused great harm—some of which may be irreparable.

    My distillation/interpretation of Mr. Paulsen's comments:
    1) Create a portfolio asset allocation which suits your individual needs and keeps you out of harm's way.
    2) Refrain from knee-jerk reactions to daily headlines.
  • CrashCrash
    edited January 24
    Observant1 said:

    I dislike the Trump administration's policies and actions.
    In my opinion, Donald J. Trump is an illegitimate president because he fomented the Jan. 6 insurrection.
    Instead of "Making American Great Again," he has caused great harm—some of which may be irreparable.

    My distillation/interpretation of Mr. Paulsen's comments:
    1) Create a portfolio asset allocation which suits your individual needs and keeps you out of harm's way.
    2) Refrain from knee-jerk reactions to daily headlines.

    Can't argue with any of that. Truly, in the eyes of those who live elsewhere, beyond the U.S. border, the very fact that the Orange Felon got elected TWICE is enough to make them wary, and tittering about American s-t-o-o-p-i-d-i-t-y. Then the Great Orange Poobah gets inaugurated and does all he can to SUBVERT the country and its institutions, creating instability, fear and DEATH. Uncle Vlad is jumping for joy.

    ...Meanwhile, back at the ranch...
    Ukraine's suffering is out of the headlines, along with EPSTEIN EPSTEIN EPSTEIN.

    Remember Alice? It's a song about Alice. (Arlo.)

    (Board of Peace that you BUY your way onto? I dunno whether to laugh or vomit.)
  • larryB
    @Observent1. I agree 100% with your points 1 and 2. interestingly they are right from Boglehead code of investing. As for me I have never been 77 before and never lived through headlines like these. This shit is not remotely normal. And as such normal responses may not be appropriate. But it’s true,,, over on Bogleheads,,, anyone who expresses concerns is told to stay the course. And never talk politics.
  • CrashCrash
    @larryB:

    This shit is not remotely normal. REMEMBER THOSE WORDS! And will there even be mid-term elections held? Will the Orange pile of Feces create a fiat emergency and declare himself the owner of some new Super Power that lets him CANCEL them?


    "...When evil is embodied in the policies and practices of the leaders of a nation, we are in a dangerous place. We again face a time when military might is glorified for the sake of war and material conquest, when rhetoric of anger and hate is actually public policy and flows from the lips of our nation’s leaders, and morality is reduced to the whim of an individual...The days ahead will not be easy..."

    ---Episcopal Bishop Robert Fitzpatrick, Diocese of Hawaii. (Jan. 9th, 2026.)
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