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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22 – 10/31/22 (A Guess)
    Howdy folks,
    Good discussion. If I bought an I-bond back in December 2021, am I able to purchase another one at this time? Should I? or should I wait?
    Thanks,
    peace,
    rono
  • While You Were Sleeping - FAIRX is #1 again
    Hi all, so I have owned FAIRX for a long time. I briefly bailed when Morningstar gave it a negative rating back in 2013 (I think) but came back. It has been rated negative by Morningstar for a long time now. I am holding on in the hopes that Fannie Mae preferred will eventually be good $. So far the court system (including supreme court) has been in favor of the gov and against hedge funds. More lawsuits are coming. TAREX owns preferred as well. Ackman owns Fannie Mae stock. Bill thinks that gov will eventually release them. However, since Dem and Rep can't agree on anything, not sure about Bill's thinking. Bruce lowered fees to 0.8 or 0.85 a little while ago and I am assuming that is still the case. Morningstar shows fee to be 1%. Bruce has been buying pipelines recently but FAIRX mostly in JOE. Bruce now publishes 3 paragraphs every 6 months (annual and semi annual reports). He went from talking a lot (TV, wealthtrack,..) to now just giving a 3 paragraph summary of the fund. Assets have held up at ~ $1 billion for a bit (more recently) since performance of JOE has been good. Not sure who owns the fund beside me (I am a very small time individual investor). Him and directors own ~ 20% I think. One FAIRX director retired or left recently. I also used to own TAVFX but bailed on that fund a while ago.
  • Another Absolutely Awful Day for Bond Funds
    Thanks Yogi for providing recent sales numbers. I still can’t get myself to mess with these. Maybe 15% would be enough. :)
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22 – 10/31/22 (A Guess)
    @Derf, it shouldn't matter for funds, so you can sell/exchange VG TDF 2015 whenever you wish.
    Individually held TIPS "pay" interest every 6 month from the issue date, like all Treasury bonds. However, the TIPS interest is not actually paid out but is just added to the principal, and all (principal + interest) is paid out on maturity. In the interim, the trading price of TIPS reflects principal and accumulated/accrued interest, but also depends on other market factors (current rate environment and inflation-expectations).
    TIPS funds are different. They have to payout inflation adjustment annually, whether earned or not, whether you like it or not. So, a fund may have to sell some TIPS to payout inflation-adjustment if it doesn't have enough cash on hand. Also, the fund NAV will reflect principal + interest at any point of time.
    There are problems with how the funds report 30-day SEC yield for TIPS funds. I have posted on this and will try to find the related link and add it here later via Edit.
    Misleading TIPS Fund Yields https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/301/thread
  • While You Were Sleeping - FAIRX is #1 again
    Agreed, but it is the one stock issue I'm referring to here when there are literally thousands of potential stocks to research and invest in worldwide, not to mention many more bonds, preferred stock and other securities to consider. The notion that only one of those should make up more than three-quarters of a fund's portfolio is bizarre. And then to pay several million dollars in fees each year for that one stock even stranger. For 1% in fees, I expect a manager to if not turn over every single rock, to turn over at least more than one. I have a hard time believing there aren't other attractive, perhaps much more attractive, companies to invest in.
  • I-Bond Rate, 5/1/22 – 10/31/22 (A Guess)
    @yogibearbull :: How do "generous inflation adjustments" get paid ? Why I'm asking. Vanguard will be rolling their 2015 TRF in the Retirement Fund. I thought about selling or exchanging into another fund , but don't want to lose the "adjustment".
    This will be done in July so have some time to figure out what to do. This money is in taxable account.
    Thanks for your time, Derf
    PS Off the topic,
    sorry about that.
  • While You Were Sleeping - FAIRX is #1 again
    $1.5 billion in assets X 1% expense ratio = $15 million annually.
    And in bad years, like 2020, when his fund dropped (47%)...Bruce still collected 1% in fees...$7.5 million-ish. But that's true with every fund manager. They get paid in both up and down markets.
  • While You Were Sleeping - FAIRX is #1 again
    $1.5 billion in assets X 1% expense ratio = $15 million annually.
  • PPI > CPI Means Margin Pressures
    Like in China earlier (PPI >> CPI), the US PPI > CPI too. This means that companies cannot pass on their increasing costs to their customers. Hence, the pressures on profit margins.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/13/producer-price-index-march-2022-.html
  • While You Were Sleeping - FAIRX is #1 again
    Seems more sensible to just buy St. Joe directly and avoid the potential tax hit of FAIRX selling some of its appreciated shares as well as FAIRX’s management fees. I sometimes wonder what it would feel like to be a manager getting paid millions of dollars for essentially a 1-stock portfolio. I think I would check my stock in the morning before the market opens, “oh nothing is happening to Florida coastal real estate, oh it continues to sit there.” Then I’d go fishing on my yacht shareholders paid for, bringing my phone of course. At noon I’d glance at the stock again—oh nothing is happening to Florida coastal real estate today, oh it continues to sit there.” Then I’d go back to fishing. To be more efficient, sometimes I wouldn’t even check my phone. I’d just look at the coast I’m fishing on and watch it continue to sit there. Occasionally, if I have the energy and am feeling generous, I might wave to the shareholders without yachts on the shore.
  • Another Absolutely Awful Day for Bond Funds
    @hank, I-Bond sales data are available as Excel download, https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_tdsecuritiesissued.xlsm
    Monthly I-Bond Sales
    10/2021 $0.23 billion
    11/2021 $1.07 billion (new rate 7.12%)
    12/2021 $2.78 billion
    01/2022 $3.26 billion
    02/2022 $0.91 billion
    As noted in the I-Bond thread, one can bunch up lot of buying as gift I-Bonds. So, let us say that you have 5 favorite relatives and friends (include me, if you want (-:)), then you can buy, say, $100K for EACH in gift I-Bonds to HOLD in your Treasury Direct account, and dole/DELIVER them out at $10K/yr/person over 10 years. That would be $510K total in I-Bond purchases NOW or ON 5/1/22, $500K in gift I-Bonds and "puny" $10K for yourself (-:). Well, this a hypothetical for those who complain about not being able to buy enough but think of the estate and asset transfer angle. Of course, you cannot have the gifted bonds yourself for any reason (actions are irreversible).
    What if the I-Bond rate collapses in a year or two? Well, then you still go through your estate plan but the receiver can sell them and buy something else.
    Edit/Add: Treasury Direct also has linkable history of Savings Bond sales, 1935-2012. Sales peak (including all types of Savings Bonds) were in 1944 ($16.04 billion; WW II time), 1978 ($7.96 billion), 1986 ($11.91 billion), 1992 ($17.70 billion), 2001 ($11.58 billion), 2005 ($22.43 billion). I am sure there is a good story behind the ups and downs in the Savings Bond sales. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/history/history_sbsales.htm
  • While You Were Sleeping - FAIRX is #1 again
    FAIRX ranks in the top 1 % percentile for Large Value funds (YTD)...rising from last in class...the fund's bifurcated performance over the last decade has been a very bumpy ride for shareholders. I exited the fund years ago. M* places FAIRX in the LV category yet describes it's investment style as Small Growth.
    77% of the fund is one company (St Joe = JOE) which probably was bought at a low in 2008. JOE's weight seems to skew it into the SG investment style while the other holdings (24% of portfolio) appears more LV. 42% of JOE is owned by Fairholme. For that privileged Fairholme shareholders pay a 1% ER. Ouch!
    Anyone use this fund in small amounts? Attempt to buy the lows, not the highs when it comes to the fund.
    image
  • Another Absolutely Awful Day for Bond Funds
    “Outflows from MM funds is an interesting phenomenon when total outflows from MM plus bond funds together constitute 50% more than the inflows into equity funds. And working folks are constantly earning new money and so, I expect MM funds to continuously have inflows. Are folks starting to draw down MM funds to fill their online savings accounts + buy (treasury?) bonds directly? or is there a bigger phenomenon such as private equity + venture investing + multiple home / rental real estate + alternate assets investing?”
    Is there a way to track inflows into these iffy I-Bonds? $10,000 ain’t much for 1 individual. But to coin an old song: $10,000 here … $10,000 there …and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.
  • Another Absolutely Awful Day for Bond Funds
    Only 1.2% of PRWCX was in TFAIX at year-end? But that is specifically a bank loan fund. ....In other news: I had 4 bond funds. Down to 2 now: PRFRX and TUHYX. Great timing with the HY, as ever. Doggy poopies.
  • What are you buying - if anything?
    @hank, as mentioned in my first post, I was enquiring about investment grade that is what I will be unloading. Not a big position, which I bought in 2013-14 and today when rates fell throughout the curve, Muni is the only sector that lost ground - answered my relative question. Even NVHIX was lower. I am not worried about defaults but market sentiment is an entirely different matter. I already bought IBonds for 2021 & 22 because it took less than a minute to do so. I am not going to use the tax overpayment to buy more as that requires more work and I already own them in six figures. I plan to hold them past the 5 yr mark.
  • Teach your children well,,,,,,,,
    @ Observant1…..i agree. She was lucky to get Vpmax, With no min purchase and it was generally closed at the time. Now I am encouraging her to jump on I Bonds. She is a medical professional and that low limit doesn’t seem to get her interest. Haha.