AAA longer duration bonds a bit better, U.S.T. issues, March 20, Friday PM close, watching..... I've removed the prior Dumbfounded title; as apparently the Fed. has fixed credit markets for awhile, and/or all of the folks who had to raise cash are about finished with that exercise; and the big selling is done. I'm sure a few of these folks are surprised at how low their stash of liquors or wine changed in just one week.
Many bonds acted a bit more normal today (March 20, Fri.), in relation to the equity markets.
Friday, March 20 close numbers; which will be reflected in your bond fund holdings or allocation fund; depending on sector exposure and percent mix.
In particular, AAA bonds to the longer duration were the benefactors on Friday.
Corporate bonds attempted a rally on Friday, but I suspect it was from short time traders and nothing meaningful.
Corporate and High Yield continue to behave as noted previous; as these areas will remain twitchy, IMHO. Too much corporate debt and likely very little or no growth or negative growth to support these bonds. An big ouch period has arrived.
A few views from bondland:
DAY(March 20) / WEEK / YTD
--- MINT = -1% / -3.6% / -4.1% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity)
--- SHY = +.27% /+.24% / +2.5% (1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +1.2% /+.7% /+5.2% (3-7 yr notes)
--- IEF = +2.6% /+1.5% /+8.4% (7-10 yr notes)
--- TLT = +7.5% / +3.6% /+18.1% (20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +7.15% / -.23% / +19.8% (Vanguard extended duration gov't)
--- ZROZ = +8.93% /+2.27% /+22.3% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
***Other:
--- HYG = -2.24% / -12.9 / -20% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- LQD = +1.6% / -13.25% / -16.2% (corp. bonds, various quality)
--- LTPZ = +12.3% /+4.3% / +3.5% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
Overview for higher quality, longer duration bonds/bond funds/bond etf's. Will the trend persist? I hope so, but I'll be watching next week with you. This area continues to rely on what's brewing in the under belly of the credit markets.
A the least for the quality bond funds one may have expects more to the positive side these past 2 weeks, but; in a way, these bonds did protect from a larger downside for a portfolio.
I watched the daily numbers for one of the most plain vanilla bond funds available; being BAGIX. The managers were surely scratching and clawing to determine were to place the money. The fund caved a bit this past week and is now at -2.24% YTD.
Let me know if you discovered a data error.
Ok. Nap time for me.
Take care of you and yours,
Catch
When to start buying re: 2018's Christmas swoon ... yes, I did some buying back then, mostly adding to existing positions. Nothing like what I've been doing these days, though.
I had some dry powder in my 403(b) that I normally use over the summer to invest into things when my employer contributions stop - but I deployed it 2x during the China spring swoon of what ... 201
5? and have used it a few times now to buy into my one mutual fund holding as it has fallen. The dry powder left in that account now is down to about the equivalent of a month's employer contribution.
In combo with rforno comments. Youngsters, does it make sense to hold some dry powder in your 401-k accounts to fire a shot or two at times like this ? Or would it be better to rebalance if 90-10 or 80-20 , before the downdraft ?
Just some Sat. morning thoughts running through my coffee induced head.
Enjoy your weekend, Derf
P.S.
@rforno did you
buy during 3/rd qter
drop 2018 ?
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if there are lawsuits over this one because as I've said before pricing of the underlying debt can be so difficult. How was it possible that on March 16th, a day when stocks lost 12% and closed-end funds for the same kind of debt crashed and Mr. Market was saying really non-agencies are worth X, this fund only fell slightly--from 12.88 a share to 12.58--relatively speaking? And then a few days later it falls 17.2% in one day. Anyone who sold the fund on March 16th where it claimed it only fell 2.3% probably got a lot more money than they should have and those who've sold on March 20th when it dropped 17.2%, even though the stock market only fell 5%, probably have gotten a lot less than they should have. Those still in the fund are left holding the bag.
When to start buying @Old_Skeet; Thanks for the comeback. Although listed as (10-30% allocation), equity % can go up to 90%. I'll mention also no load at Schwab.
5 stars rated .
Have a good weekend, Derf
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't just go slow and keep your required reserves in cash. For me that's 50% right now but mainly because my other allocations have shrunk do to price declines!
Yup. I've found the cash % of my portfolio rising significantly over the past month... since everything else has fallen!
I'm still too nervous to pull the trigger with my modest dry powder. I'm guessing we get a quick bump when stimulus passes, then another longer leg down. At least that's what happened in 2008.
When to start buying Hi
@Derf, Yes the fund is down ... I have CTFAX off its
52 week high by -11.1% and down ytd by -7.41%. In comparison, I have the S&P
500 Index (SPY, my stock proxy) off its
52 week high by -32.
5% and ytd down -28.48%. Interestingly, AGG (my bond proxy) is off its
52 week high by -7.7
5% and ytd down -1.67%. Since, CTFAX loaded equities on Monday and reduced bonds I am surprised that it is not down more than it is. Skeet
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't A nibble is definitely not 10% in one shot, way WAY less. I like to look at individual positions and the opportunities presented. My largest holding is VWALX at around 18%. Getting blasted but I doubt the muni bond market will collapse but it could go lower, I'd be a buyer slowly and the lower the price the fewer shares you need to bring your cost basis down. I always try and buy below my cost basis and now is the first time in years that I can. That said, at some point you also need to stop and wait for stability. Don't always need to catch the bottom...and if you do you're probably just lucky. If you're happy with your potions review them one by one and do some buying when your down and the market is down, just go slow and keep your required reserves in cash. For me that's 50% right now but mainly because my other allocations have shrunk do to price declines!
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't @wxman123; Thanks for your comments , always nice to hear what others are thinking.
What if say you're
50% cash,MM, or like: would a nibble be a
5 or 10 % buy on a
5 to 10 % down day ?
Thanks for any replies, Derf
When to start buying CTFAX - Appears to be down 10.1 % since 3/9 - high of $15.57. Good, bad, or ugly ?
I have no idea.
Derf
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't best of all, you could post about it here, like those who got out end Feb (or whatever) and went to cash etc etc etc,
unlike those down a half-mil in retirement
The idea of "going to cash" is pretty silly for anyone with real money outside of a tax sheltered account, and very dangerous for those even in a tax sheltered account. The getting out part is relatively easy except for the taxes involved. It didn't take a genius to know we are entering a down period towards the beginning of this month. It's the getting back in part that is so hard. I have used all kinds of charts and techniques over the years in many sectors (especially playing commodities) and have learned that "get back in" signals can be very false. You think the worst is over and get in...only to drop another 60% from there. Just look at natural gas, for example. Then you're afraid to get back in...only to see a massive (often unexplained) rip to the upside while sitting in your cash. Yes, some will win big with their great calls and will post here. The losers not so much. Every transaction in the history of every market had a buyer and a seller. I'd wager a lot that those who stand still will come out ahead over the long term...I suspect that those staying pat with things like vwenx, vwiax, btbfx, pimix will do fine with their likely "mere" 6-7% returns over the next decade or so after this mess clears. Of course this time may be different (highly doubt it) but I can't live on MM returns. My personal strategy is to always be 30%-
50% in cash and to nibble in down periods (especially killer down days) and to stand pat most other times. Down 13% YTD and consider myself "lucky." Good luck all, and stay safe!
When to start buying For those that want a mutual fund that throttles its asset allocation between bonds and stocks based upon the movement of the S&P
500 Index might want to check out a fund that I own (CTFAX). I bought this fund back in 2008 & 2009; and, it was one several of the funds I used to enjoy the ride back up ... and, I kept it as a member of my hybrid income sleeve to harvest profits from the stock market.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1Be sure to check out the Asset Allocation Update(s). It might give you some buying queues. Just this week it went from 1
5% equity to 60% equity and can go up to 90% equity should the stock market continue to decline.
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! Hi
@Crash. In response to fund managers putting cash to work. I own a fund with ticker symbol CTFAX that moves from bonds to stocks based upon the movement of the S&P
500 Index. Just last week, it went from 1
5% stocks to 60% stocks. In addition, I've got some other hybrid funds that throttle their equity allocation based upon their manager's call. I went into this mess with a sizeable amount of cash myself (20%) and I have been buying good dividend paying funds as the stock market pulls back. I have bought at the 8%, 13%, 19%, 27% and 29% decline marks. Come next week I'll be putting some more cash to work into CTFAX to play the rebound since it is now equity heavy at 60% and can load more (up to 90%) should the stock market continue to decline. Funds like this are out there you just need a community board like this to learn of them. Take care. Old_Skeet
Below is a link where you can learn more about this fund.
https://www.columbiathreadneedleus.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/Columbia-Thermostat-Fund/Class-A/details/?cusip=197199755&_n=1Be sure to check out the section about asset allocation updates.
Consider bond ladders for bear market peace of mind Https://www.dailycamera.com/2020/03/20/david-gardner-consider-bond-ladders-for-bear-market-peace-of-mind//David Gardner: Consider bond ladders for bear market peace of mind
By DAVID GARDNER |
To say the financial world has changed in the two weeks since my last column would be a vast understatement. A month ago we reached an all-time high in the S&P
500 large company index. There was a brief scare when it looked like China would not be able to control the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, but our stock market recovered after new cases started to recede. /
Anyone have experiences having 60/40 [but 40 have combined bond laddering portfolio]. Maybe all seasoned proof portfolio according to author
Would you buy a 50 year Treasury? No for sure! After 2% annual inflation, investors earn nothing on the 50 years treasury. Larry Kudlow is copy what the European is doing with their 100 years bond and knowing the investors will never live long enough to hold them to maturity.
When to start buying
I know about
50/200 but it's too late. If you look at my SP
500 (
chart) from 2008 to 2009. Price crossed the 100 MA on 04/2009 but the
50/200 crossed only on 07/2009.
I also learned that if many agree on the same indicators they will not work as well and
50/200 cross is one of them.