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https://marketbeat.com/articles/fed-chair-powell-says-will-provide-nearly-unlimited-lending-2020-03-26/Jerome Powell says the Federal Reserve would provide essentially unlimited lending to support the economy as long as it is damaged by the viral outbreak.
The economic rescue bill approved by the Senate early Thursday includes $425 billion that the Treasury could use to backstop the Fed. That would allow the Fed to boost its lending programs to an astronomical $4.25 trillion.
“Wherever ... credit is not flowing, we have the ability in these unique circumstances to temporarily step in and provide those loans and we will keep doing that, aggressively and forthrightly," Powell said.
When asked if the Fed would run out of ammunition to support the economy, Powell said no.
I agree. I notice muni money market now yielding 4% comparing to the typical 1% of federal money market funds. This is seldom observed.muni bond funds and high yield munis also lost big recently (and in 2008). Muni funds had huge increases today — 3-5% — which is unheard of for munis. Personally I think most of the recent bond fund drops were due to liquidity issues from traders selling bonds, after stocks dropped so much, and overwhelming the markets.
I just looked up MGGPX and can't believe it currently only lost 13% this year. Again, I thank Ted for that one :-)I am also looking at what to prune and what to add. Two global growth funds, MGGPX and BGAFX, have held up amazingly well. I own the former, but consider the latter to be its equal. As of last night neither fund had lost more than 15% YTD, with the Baron fund at around -9%. All this could change in an instant, but I could see jettisoning APFDX and cutting back on DSENX in favor of one or both of MGGPX or BGAFX. Kind of surprised the Baron fund is not a Great Owl.
https://cnbc.com/2020/03/25/negative-rates-come-to-the-us-1-month-and-3-month-treasury-bill-yields-are-now-negative.htmlThe one-month and three-month Treasury bill yields turned negative Wednesday.
“This is part and parcel of the whole flight to quality thing,” said Kim Rupert, managing director of global fixed income at Action Economics.
“Everyone is expecting the Fed to be lower for longer, and I mean longer. The whole bias is for yields to go lower. I would not rule out the front end of the curve going negative.”
In the article, he talks about government bonds which are usually Treasury bills, (there are Treasury notes, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS))This excerpt seemed worth noting:Automatically re-balancing (selling bonds that appear to be getting hammered right now as well) doesn't seem so helpful to one's portfolio.My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio in mid-February has now become a 51/49 portfolio, entirely on the basis of market action. This is very large drift in a very short time. Given the many trillions of dollars in assets that follow some sort of multi-asset class approach, the coming rebalance could well be in the range of a few hundred billion.
Automatically re-balancing (selling bonds that appear to be getting hammered right now as well) doesn't seem so helpful to one's portfolio.My back-of-the-envelope calculation shows that a 60/40 stock/bond portfolio in mid-February has now become a 51/49 portfolio, entirely on the basis of market action. This is very large drift in a very short time. Given the many trillions of dollars in assets that follow some sort of multi-asset class approach, the coming rebalance could well be in the range of a few hundred billion.
He just stated the obvious, after a 35% decline in the Dow, it's highly likely "the bulk of the declines have already occurred" and just to cover his AXX he added, "doesn't mean the lows are in by any means." :-)My conclusion from all these indicators is that, unless we are heading into another Great Depression (unlikely in my view with $4 trillion of helicopter money on the way), these extremely negative breadth readings are more consistent with a market in which the bulk of the declines have already occurred, as opposed to one where they are yet to come. That doesn't mean the lows are in by any means.
Long-Term Treasuries have both returned more in four weeks than they normally would in an entire year.
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