“In Schwab‘s recent earnings release, capital CEO Walt Bettinger noted that client activity exceeded anything the company had ever experienced. And some days, the brokerage firm handled as many as 10 million trades and 15,000,000 logins across its website and mobile platforms. The market volatility even attracted more investors - rather than scaring them away. A Schwab survey found that 15% of all current U.S. stock investors first began treating in 2020.”
(Schwab’s stock price has risen 27% YTD.)
From: The Striking Price: Sharp Swings Favor Schwab
Steven M. Sears, writing in Barron’s, April 26, 2021

https://www.financial-planning.com/list/bond-funds-with-the-worst-15-year-returns
Bond funds with the worst 15-year returns
By Andrew Shilling
All of the fixed-income industry’s worst long-term performers recorded gains over all time horizons, with only one in the red so far in 2021.
The 20 worst-performing bond funds of the past 15 years, with at least $100 million in assets under management, notched an average gain of nearly 1.5%, Morningstar Direct data show. Over the past 12 months, the same funds — all actively managed like those in last week’s top-performers ranking — had an average return of 2.28%.
With Treasury yields hovering around 1% over the better part of the decade, Amy Magnotta, co-head of discretionary portfolios at Brinker Capital Investments, says it’s no surprise that the industry's shortest-duration bond funds had a large presence.
“All of the funds on the list with the worst 15-year returns are short-term bond funds, both taxable and municipal,” Magnotta says, adding, “The yield on the one-year Treasury bill has averaged just 1.16% over the last 15 years, and it spent most of the time period below 1%, which is not an attractive starting point for returns of shorter maturity securities.”
For comparison, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG), which has a 0.04% net expense ratio, recorded a 15-year gain of 4.29%, data show. Over the past year, the fund had a gain of 0.60%. The iShares 2-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY), which tracks the ICE BofA 1-3 Year Treasury Index, had 1- and 15-year gains of 0.17% and 2.2%, respectively.
In stocks, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) have had 15-year returns of 10.30% and 10.32%, respectively. In the past 12 months, SPY and DIA had gains of 48.69% and 44.79%. The funds have net expense ratios of 0.09% and 0.16%.
Fees among bond funds in this ranking were higher than the industry average. With an overall net expense ratio of 0.58%, funds here were only slightly pricier than the 0.45% investors paid for fund investing in 2019, according to Morningstar’s most recent annual fee survey.
When discussing bond fund performance over any time horizon with clients, Magnotta says it’s key to also have a conversation about their role in a diversified portfolio.***
Anyone owe these lemons?

https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2021/04/24/1-vanguard-etf-to-buy-and-hold-forever/
Vanguard ETF to Buy and Hold Forever
This ETF can help you become a millionaire.
Katie Brockman
To be successful in the stock market, you'll need a long-term strategy. Investing isn't a "get rich quick" scheme, so the best approach involves buying good stocks and holding them for as long as you can.***
What is your longest holding etf(s) or fund(s) that you may keep adding or buying w limited selling?
For us
VGSTX/ SP500 ETF /VANGUARD2040 / VPCCX and BRK.B

@Old Joe, did you look at the graph in the article? I think you're right, in the sense that energy is a lot more volatile than food and is most responsible for CPI swings. Just googling around a bit for that info, it does look like food at least since 1968 has been pretty much one-way.
However, just an anecdote, I remember well several years back when dairy prices fell a lot in a short time and stayed there for a couple of years before rising, slowly, again. The happy shock was seeing the 1/2 gal organic milk we used to buy going from $3.50 to $3.00 from one shopping trip to the next - a 14% drop. Maybe something to do with price supports caused that, dunno.
Best, AJ

Updated filing as of 4/22/21:
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177321000800/c485bpos.htm

“Only 25% of U.S. equities are owned by U.S. taxable investors, with the remaining 75% held by people and entities not subject to capital gains levies, such as pension plans and other retirement accounts, endowments, and foreign investors ... (according to UBS).”
From Randall W. Forsyth - Barron’s April 26, 2021

Thanks, @bee, for that link to Finny, a site I did not know. One quirk I found re: RPGAX is that the fund’s holdings are characterized as 959 stocks and 0 bonds, whereas 6 of the top 10 holdings are clearly identified as bond funds. Apparently Finny can’t see a fund-of-funds for what it is. I’m so demoralized by M*’s computer-generated analyses that I’m willing to wander off the beaten path in search of substantive MF research. Nonetheless, Finny does not seem to be a competitor quite yet. I would not hold a fairly low asset base against a fund, either; in fact I seek out newbies or small funds, to wit: TMSRX, RPGAX, and DSTL. I have a hard time understanding M*’s new “Crowd Sense” metric. If the madding crowd is running towards a fund (i.e., ARKK), it may behoove me to run the other way.

Howdy folks,
First for brother Hank. Check around about masks. I see baseball players wearing them in the field, so there must be a way or type.
Inflation. It's been interesting to watch the supply disruptions due to Covid but also the changes in demand. Lumber is impacted by both as are many other products and services. I anticipate that official inflation will be measurably higher going forward but the street inflation is going to hurt. Any of you good people been buying groceries over the past couple of weeks? For somethings, you can almost see the price changes. I buy chicken breasts at GFS and the bag went from 15.99 to 21.99 in the past 6 months.
Shadow stats has real inflation running either 4 or 8 over the official CPI. You can like him or not, but we're all experiencing a much higher rate of inflation than the gov't suggests.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
Peeps getting their shots . . . or not. feh. 1. As more and more people are vaccinated without problems, many of the hesitant will get their shots. 2. More and more companies are starting to insist and some are offering incentives. 3. Final approval for the mRNA vaccines will give legal basis to a LOT of mandates. The military has about 33% that are hesitating. Er, only because it's an EUA. When it is approved, it's roll up your sleeves boys and girls. All of this should get us to 75-80%. Of the 20% antivax true believers, it's too bad but cripes, Darwin will take care of them. I believe the word is
schadenfreude, suggests rono's 'bad wolf' side, as he giggles at Palin and Nugent.
Employment and job vacancies and help wanted signs everywhere. Of course there are those that blame it on unemployment $, make working unattractive. Bad wolf suggests that if they were paid a living wage . . . That said, I'm curious about how many women (and men) between the ages of 18 and 40 are making more money with their onlyfans account than they would ever make at a restaurant or bar or any other job that pays under $20 an hour. Asking for a friend.
All y'all stay safe and take care,
and so it goes,
peace and keep wearing the damn mask,
rono

April 23rd Episode:

In addition to fine chemical manufacturing for pharmaceuticals and other products, India is also a contract manufacturer for AstroZeneca COVID vaccine. They are also developing their own vaccines, presumably using similar technology as J&J and AstroZeneca. Exporting COVID vaccines has been banned for local consumption, and they need many dosages. In addition, call centers for computer customer support is often located in India. In my opinion, India's contribution to the developed world and economy is sizable. The current infection rate and resulting death toll is unprecedented and it will likely to have lasting impact on their workforce and economy.
As an example, portfolio of Matthews India fund, MINDX is enclosed below.
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/composition/577130859

Indicators: S&P 500, 10y T, 30y T, high yield effective yield (on FRED), vix.
Funds: only 5? hmm, examples: credit/strategic income: ETSIX, DBLNX; allocation: CMAAX, LCORX; muni cef's: NVG and other Nuveen cef's across the risk spectrum.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/mit-researchers-say-youre-no-safer-from-covid-indoors-at-6-feet-or-60-feet-in-new-study.html?__source=iosappshare|ph.telegra.Telegraph.Share
HEALTH AND SCIENCE
MIT researchers say you’re no safer from Covid indoors at 6 feet or 60 feet in new study challenging social distancing policies
PUBLISHED FRI, APR 23 202112:15 PM EDTUPDATED 4 HOURS AGO
Rich Mendez
KEY POINTS
An MIT study showed that people who maintain 60 feet of distance from others indoors are no more protected than if they socially distanced by just 6 feet.
According to the researchers, other calculations of the risk of indoor transmission have omitted too many factors to accurately quantify that risk.
“We need scientific information conveyed to the public in a way that is not just fear mongering but is actually based in analysis,” the author of the study said.***

From my recall relative to investing in biopharma and related, I searched again for current data and impacts from an economy and business sectors impaired by a large Covid outbreak. The pharma production area is my initial concern.
India is the largest provider of generic drugs globally. Indian pharmaceutical sector supplies over 50% of global demand for various vaccines, 40% of generic demand in the US and 25% of all medicine in the UK. India enjoys an important position in the global pharmaceuticals sector.Mar 22, 2021
India industry(s) overview
Sidenote: Modi was elected in 2014, and is a Trump like policy(s) leader. India broad equities investing peaked in Jan. 2018 and have not yet recovered those highs.

Sp500 Dji vwo Dogecoin gtbc

- S&P 500
- QQQ
- VIX
USMQX VONE MTUM PRBLX AKREX

Indicators / Indexes / Prices
- Dow
- Nasdaq
- 10-Year Treasury Bond
- Oil
- Gold
Funds
- VFINX
- TRBCX
- PRHYX
- TRREX
- HSGFX

https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-bitcoin-dives-below-50000-intel-snap-move-biden-capital-gains-tax-hike-plan-hits-market-rally/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-dogecoin-joe-biden-capital-tax-gain-075447840.html
The drop is due to the desire to raise the capital gains tax?
Hmmm... it has nothing to do with.... the 1.55 billion in bitcoin options that expire today?
I may wait just a little longer or by EOD to add to my tiny position.

Circling back to this... given what was said about HY bonds and inflation / recession related to the worry with FMSDX ... if you were trying to decide between adding more to FMSDX or FBALX right now... which would you prefer?

@JonGaltIII FBALX is the larger, more traditional fund. It has a MFO Risk of 4 with a 5 year maximum drawdown of -14.6 compared to MFO Risk of 3 for FMSDX with a maximum drawdown of -10.9. FBALX has 70% equity with a P/E of 36.4 compared to 52% equity with a P/E of 27.4. FBALX has twice the amount in Technology as FMSDX while FMSDX is more value oriented.
I believe that high valuations have pulled returns forward and increased risks boosting the returns of FBALX. For these reasons, I favor FMSDX going forward in the intermediate term as a conservative investor.
My next article on MFO discusses some of these reasons. Thank you for the great question.

I haven’t read everything above but I say cash is form of bonds. When I started investing in 1982 cash reserve funds were the high flyers. Of course conditions then were much different than they are now but still, cash reserves are ultra short bonds. Johnathan Clements discussed his thoughts on cash in a recent article in his Humble Dollar blog
At this point, half my bonds are termed “cash”. Another 25% are in a Stable value fund - neither true bonds or cash. Maybe I should advocate that we call all these bond like instruments “fixed income”.

I did and what I have done since I started investing and now at retirement. I'm fully invested at 99+%, only several thousands in cash at the bank. All my brokerage accounts have zero or close to zero in MM. I only go to cash since 2010-11 when I started planning my retirement, when I see very high risk, that happened about 2%. Since 2010-11 I started to change my asset allocation gradually from a very high % in stocks funds to mainly bond fund today.

@hank,
I believe you are a holder of PRPFX...a worthy all weather portfolio... that is better explained here:
https://optimizedportfolio.com/permanent-portfolio/
Using PRPFX's components as a guide (YTD):
Comparing PRPFX against its components TLT, CEF, and VTI
VTI - Rising - YTD up 6%
TLT - Falling - YTD down almost (-14%)
CEF - Falling - YTD down almost (-10%)
Cash - Flat
Look's positive short term for equities