For readers and STB65. The gross expense charge is 2.02% but part of he fee has been waived and the current net fee is 1.25%.

@FD100, but what the idea is is to stay invested in a diversified balanced portfolio through the good years and exit automatically when a black swan event unexpectedly pushes you into some place you don't want to be, 20-25% loss. I don't think many retirees want to take more than a 10-15% loss on retirement money in an unexpected occurrence. With minimizing the loss you may not have any long term affect on your life style.
I agree though that if done, it should be a % of the total. But maybe a substantial %.

@Old_Skeet That article factors deflation into the equation, which I also feel is cheating in certain respects, too. The assumption is well everything is cheaper, therefore it only took X for the market, which is also cheaper, to recover. But If you had a 100k portfolios that fell to 50k but so did the CPI so everything was 50% cheaper, this article would have it that you broke even. While a valuable exercise in the abstract, I want to know how long it took to recover without this inflation/deflation legerdemain.

According to this NYT article that I have linked below it took only 4.5 years for the stock market to recover from the 1928 stock market crash. It goes on to say that the average investor recovered by mid 1932.
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html

Interesting slide from JP Morgan on the present valuations of US equities:
https://screencast.com/t/9j06Z89K5D

Acutely painful to watch.
https://twitter.com/alphaarchitect/status/1249705104795750400?s=20
or
https://alphaarchitect.com/2020/04/13/compound-your-knowledge-ep-28-bond-etf-discussion-with-jon-seed/

Hi @bee and @sma3
Bee, I recall you've long been aware of the possibilities of using EDV or related. Thank you for the link.
I place the below again from a March 20 post.
A few views from bondland:
DAY(March 20) / WEEK / YTD
--- MINT = -1% / -3.6% / -4.1% (Pimco Enhanced short maturity)
--- SHY = +.27% /+.24% / +2.5% (1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = +1.2% /+.7% /+5.2% (3-7 yr notes)
--- IEF = +2.6% /+1.5% /+8.4% (7-10 yr notes)
--- TLT = +7.5% / +3.6% /+18.1% (20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = +7.15% / -.23% / +19.8% (Vanguard extended duration gov't)
--- ZROZ = +8.93% /+2.27% /+22.3% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds)
***Other:
--- HYG = -2.24% / -12.9 / -20% (high yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- LQD = +1.6% / -13.25% / -16.2% (corp. bonds, various quality)
--- LTPZ = +12.3% /+4.3% / +3.5% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds
I had also previously noted that EDV, TLT and ZROZ can be very hot potatoes to manage and require a close watch and what may adjust their directions.
***** It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see. *****
Henry David Thoreau
I personally adjust this, for investments, to; it matters to me where I look, as I want to "see" actions of other areas where I may never invest; but need to know the actions.
Take care,
Catch

While the 70's stock market did not drop as much as the Great Depression market, it did creep to an end with Business Week proclaiming the death of equities, before bottoming out at a PE ratio of 6.68 later that year. If you had invested near the peak in 1961 you would have had to wait until 1991 to see that peak again.
If you invested in December 1894 you would have died before seeing that peak again.
We don't hear much talk of capitulation. Everyone is looking to buy the dip.
As of the last close, the PE sits at 20.59. Today, M* is claiming that the tech sector is "decently undervalued." The PE for the NASDAQ 100, perhaps not the best proxy, is roughly 22.09.
The Gods of the Copybook Headings keeps coming to mind. Especially the first and last stanzas.
AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
[ellipses]
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
Seems to me that the Fed is now dead set on making sure no one dies for their sins of leverage in the market place.
A less sanguinary description might be found in the last stage of Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis.

@FD1000 That "Large Cap Blend" category data is also wrong for that period of history because it can not include survivor bias of all the funds that went out of business that far back and there were many. Of the ones that did survive__ MFS Massachusetts Investors Fund (MITTX) 1924.
Putnam Investors Fund (PINVX) 1925.
Pioneer Fund (PIODX) 1928.
Century Shares Fund (CENSX) 1928.--I suspect they must have had bonds in their portfolio for that. Dividends I'm sure helped but who would have the mental fortitude amd/or financial wherewithal to reinvest in the market when it falls like that? In other words, the data you're providing shows large-cap blend funds falling about 55% when the market fell 89%. That cannot be correct for a pure stock portfolio even if you factor in dividends, which I believe peaked at 14% during the Depression.

@LewisBraham, I know that VWELX is not the SP500 and why I posted and included in the chart LC blend which is close to the SP500. I don't know many funds with history all the way to 1929 and M* chart includes dist.
One thing I'm sure we will not experience 1929 again because the Fed learned an important lesson but it's great to mention it as a selling point and why the media mentioned the Spanish FLU too.

A read I came across:
Fed's Kashkari paints gloomy view of coronavirus economic recovery
feds-kashkari-paints-gloomy-view-of-coronavirus-economic-recovery?

The usual, doom and gloom sell better and why you see a lot more headlines like that. Simple example: the DOW declined 200 points or triple digits, why not say 0.8%? because it's not catchy.
"It was not until Nov. 23, 1954, that the Dow reached its previous peak of 381.17."...that is another claim far from the truth. You must include distributions. See a (chart) of VWELX + LC blend since 1929

I am assuming by the tenor of the replies here most people believe the author of the initial article in Foreign Policy is wrong. Otherwise, why would one be in stocks at all? If this author is right regarding unemployment, GDP growth, etc., this will be worse than the Great Depression. Here's what Investopedia has stat wise regarding the Depression:https://investopedia.com/ask/answers/042115/what-caused-stock-market-crash-1929-preceded-great-depression.asp

Before this crash, which ruined both corporate and individual wealth, the stock market peaked on Sept. 3, 1929, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) at 381.17. The ultimate bottom was reached on July 8, 1932, where the Dow stood at 41.22. From peak to trough, this was a loss of 89.19%.
The price of blue chip stocks declined, but there was more pain in small-cap and speculative stocks, many of which declared bankruptcy and were delisted from the market. It was not until Nov. 23, 1954, that the Dow reached its previous peak of 381.17.

As I've said in previous posts, every day is different, but unemployment, GDP, earnings from the previous two, etc, have driven stocks in the past. If this author is right, then there really is no point in owning stocks at all. Declines like the Depression are unlike anything most investors have experienced in their lifetimes, and taking 25 years to recover exceeds most people's investment time horizons. It is far worse than what happened in the 1970s as referenced in other posts. So, I am hoping he's wrong. And I think there is evidence he could be.

I remember Cinnamon very well from years ago. His fund looked good when the market crashed and then it looks pretty bad. How long can a high % in cash works?
The following is from the last report. As expected PVCMX had over 92% in cash on 1/1/2020 and probably in 2019 too.
The Palm Valley Capital Fund gained 0.79% for the quarter ending March 31, 2020, while the S&P Small Cap 600 and the Morningstar Small Cap Indexes lost 32.65% and 31.61%, respectively. The Fund began the quarter with 92.4% of its assets held in cash and equivalents and ended the period with 52.0% cash.
I will pass on this fund..."fool me once, shame on you. fool me twice, shame on me."

This morning April 13th looks to be Give Back Monday as the stock futures are down here in the States but up in Europe as I write around 7:30 am ESDT. This is really not unexpected as the S&P 500 Index is at the top of its channel (2700 range) by my thinking and will pull back to the 2500 range and trade near term between these ranges

Howdy folks,
@FD1000 mentioned the revolution occurring in education. F2F to virtual. My Econ 101 Prof was so good they taped him in the early 80s and ran his tape for years. Why should I pay thousands in tuition when there's no classroom interaction. Even if I can video chat with the Prof it's not the same. Tuition needs to be cut by 50%. Oh, and scrap intercollegiate athletics once and for all and focus on education.
My huge fear on the k12 front is computers and internet access for all the kids. Damn, we already have to import educated workers and we have so many brilliant people that are simply not receiving the education. Another reason why we need universal education. A step in that direction would be to erase the interest and penalties on all the federal student loan debt. Have them pay off the principal.
And so it goes
Peace and Flatten the Curve
Rono

I worked over 35 in IT in several sectors and I can tell you there is still a lot to do and especially eliminating high paying jobs. Just think how many jobs were gone in investing where indexes, computers and simple to more sophisticated processes can do better LT.
Why a degree should cost that much? students who can learn via the internet, should pay a lot less. We can use the best professors to record the best courses, no need to use all these buildings from dorms to food courts, stadiums and more. We can cut faculty members and so on.
The last company I worked for ordered all the workers to work from home and they cut building rents from 4 floors to one floor. Most employees love it and saved on gas, clothes, driving time and work productivity went up.
We are just at the beginning of this process. Computers and robots will start taking away higher paying jobs.
Another idea that was implemented successfully only in a handful of companies. Cut your management by half. Managers are huge distraction and overhead by creating additional processes to justify themselves. Hire the best employees and pay them more. I have seen it so many times in IT, a great developer is cheaper than 2 mediocre ones and accomplishes more when you look at a project life cycle.
The stock market is looking months away, it's a pretty good indicator of the future. What we are seeing now is the above process speeding up. It exposes what are the real necessary jobs/businesses and what are not so much. CEOs are paying attention and will follow with it...unfortunately.

The entire investing world has been telling us to invest in short term bonds since the great recession. It pains me greatly to see how short term bonds have performed against long term bonds.
Of course I'm not invested in a fund that's returned 8% over 5, 10.5% over 10 and 8.5% over 15 years. Because I listen to reason and reason said if you owned long dated bonds in your portfolio then you are an idiot.
Well, fact of the matter is I AM an idiot, but for the exact opposite reason. As long as I do not invest in WHOSX, it will continue doing well.

It is hard to imagine a more backward conclusion than this. Who on earth does he think is offering active, non-transparent ETFs? Oh, yes, the mutual fund companies.
American Century, Fidelity, T. Rowe Price ... The mutual fund companies have faced two major impediments. One, an antiquated regulatory system designed in 1940 and periodically patched since then. That system imposes a series of direct and indirect expenses on OEFs (state registration fees and taxation of realized capital gains, e.g.) that ETF regulations do not. One fund company president who is looking to transition one of his smaller funds directly into a non-transparent ETF estimates that regulation and the fee structure for middlemen represent over half of all of the expenses his firm bears. Two, the "mutual funds are dinosaurs" mantra that caught on with the media, anxious for stories, and advisers anxious to "add value."
There are 656 ETFs that are three years old or less; dozens more were launched and liquidated or "repurposed" (the Drone ETF becoming the Cloud Economy ETF) in the same period. Of those 656, nearly 400 are no economically sustainable. That cutoff there, established by people who study ETF liquidations, is $30M AUM.
And whose funds are rolling in the cash? Looking just at these younger funds that have drawn $1B or more: JPMorgan, State Street, Vanguard, Deutsche, Franklin, BlackRock, Principal. Which is to say, old-line mutual fund companies. (As an aside, most also have a captive adviser workforce whose "recommended" list of ETFs are in-house products.)
Among the 25 largest newer ETFs, only two come from the upstart community: GraniteShares Gold (BAR) and GlobalX US Preferred (PFFD). Global X is owned by Mirae Asset, a Seoul-based firm that also owned Brown Brothers Harrison and the BBH Funds.
I don't know whether, a generation hence, PRWCX will be structured as an OEF under the '40 Act, an ETF under the Precidian Rule, both or neither. But I do know that the firms with the global reach, global recognition and multi-trillion asset bases that dominate the fund industry are more likely to cast the CNBC favorites of the world into deep shadow than vice versa.

This is what Marks said on March 3rd (link).
"These days, people have been asking me whether this is the time to buy. My answer is more nuanced: it’s probably a time to buy. There can be no unique time to buy that we can identify. The only thing we can be sure of today is that stock prices, for example, are a lot lower in the absolute than they were two weeks ago."
On March 3rd the SP500 was less than 7% down for year-to-date. Marks started buying way too early and what is known as falling knives. Marks claims that he is using intrinsic valuation, after just 7% drop for the longest bull market, how much intrinsic valuation can you find?
But my main problem that you will find anything you like in most of his memos. Do nothing, it's too expensive, buy now, prices can go lower/higher and many what ifs to cover any angle.
BTW, buying on the way down isn't recommended, IMO a better way if to start buying and keep buying only on the way up. When you buy lower and lower and the price goes down you will lose more money.
Do You realized that Marks hardly ever quantify his memos because when you do that you actually have to put the time and analyze the numbers :-)
I was trained from an early age at school that saying no isn't enough, you must come up with a good example or a solution. With that in mind, see below.
If you want to read great memos from a manager that actually manages money please read David R. Giroux who manages PRWCX. Giroux can invest in stocks + bonds and navigate market extremely well and why PRWCX performance for 3 thru 15 years is in the top 3%. The following (link) is PRWCX 12/31/2019 annual report. You will find so many specific ideas and additional numbers/estimates.