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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Best ETF or Mutual Funds for severe inflationary cycle?
    Consider INFL ETF. It seems to follow a similar track to PRAFX, but since inception 1/11/21 to 5/3 it has come out ahead, INFL up 17.38%, to PRAFX up 13.34%.
  • Interesting view of TMSRX through Lipper Lens
    @hank : You said, " On a sharp equity selloff, I’d probably cut that back a couple %." With -1 on the short side of equity that should be a positive. Presuming the shorts & longs cancel out .
    Just wondering, Derf
    @Derf - Inquiring minds like to wonder … You are correct that the fund is pretty much neutral as far as equity exposure goes. The NASDAQ got whacked today. I’ll guess that’s mainly what the fund is shorting. So don’t be surprised to see it gain a bit today.
    What I meant was that if equities sold off sharply, I’d sell a couple percent of TMSRX and buy something more invested in equities - maybe add to PRSIX which has an ER about half of what TMSRX charges. TMSRX is 1 of 3 funds in my alternative camp. Combined they amount to 32% of holdings. Maybe drop it to 30%. We’re not taking about BIG moves here.
    -
    Lately, I notice that PRSNX has grown a small "short" position that wasn't there, before. (Morningstar's X-Ray.) Falling dollar, I suspect, is what's going on, in that case.
    @Crash - Here’s the Lipper breakdown on PRSNX
    -13% Cash
    111% Bonds
    2% Other
    0% Stocks
    Total Net Assets $1.50B
    Total Stock Holdings 1
    Total Bond Holdings 560
    % Foreign Stocks 0%
    Portfolio Turnover Rate 144%
    It’s not at all unusual for bond funds to hold short positions. Sometimes they’ll short the 30 year Treasury Bond. By doing so, they hedge losses in their shorter duration bonds when rates tick upward. Pretty sure DODIX has done that in the past. However, the short on a 30 year bond would only amount to a few percent.
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen says rates “may have to rise somewhat ….”
    LOL (click here)
    Markets reacted to the non-sensical statement, so am posting it. What in h*** Yellen is trying to achieve with a statement like that escapes me, unless Powell asked her to sow the seeds of rising rates in investors’ minds prior to the Fed moving.
  • Interesting view of TMSRX through Lipper Lens
    :) Thanks for chiming in guys.
    @MikeM - My less than expert take is that a lot of the cash / bond position is actually held in “reserve” to back the short positions. And that that method of displaying is to comport with SEC disclosure rules.
    As Mark implies, I think, funds that play in derivatives can post some pretty weird numbers. One commodities fund I once owned would typically display about 150% cash and bonds. Consider that your fund manager has no way to store crude oil or pork bellies. So the “commodity” exposure in commodity funds is achieved with smoke and mirrors (derivatives).
    If I can find another fund with weird numbers like that, I’ll post it here.
    My take on owning TMSRX - “Making the best of a bad situation”. That’s because of the super low prevailing interest rates along with what appear to me to be overvalued equity markets. So, by default, TMSRX has just north of 12% of my retirement assets. On a sharp equity selloff, I’d probably cut that back a couple %. With funds like that it boils down to a matter of trust in the fund’s operator not to gamble with your money.
  • Interesting view of TMSRX through Lipper Lens
    Hi @hank. I assume the accumulative short and long positions in equity sum to -1%, but how can the bond/cash/other percentages be correct if it uses the 35 stock positions as a total of -1% ? Very confusing. Seems equity positions, regardless of being short or long, would be some greater percentage than -1% which in turn would reduce the given % for bond, cash and other. given above.
    Very confusing to understand the break down of distribution. Or am I missing something?
  • Best Broad Market Funds to invest now?
    With valuations in everything so high, over 20% of the SP500 in 5 stocks, margin debt at record levels and volatility falling, I am sitting on the sidelines. Once the FED just "mentions" tapering, there will be a significant correction. I am not sure even then I will jump.
  • Interesting view of TMSRX through Lipper Lens
    Yes, the investor share at 1.22% is not cheap, but other alternative funds could cost even more. Don't recall that the fund ever took aggressive short equity position greater than 5%. Nevertheless 2020 drawdown was -8%, whereas Vanguard balanced index was down 2x as much. The fund did well by year end. The 100% turnover indicated very active trading of the positions in the fund. These days AI or machine learning algorithms is used in these type of funds.
    BTW, I also invested in it too since the inception. It will be interesting to see how this fund held up today as the market pullback.
  • Interesting view of TMSRX through Lipper Lens
    Lipper Holdings for TMSRX
    -1% Stocks
    68% Bonds
    30% Cash
    3% Other
    KEY STATISTICS
    Total Net Assets $205.82M
    Total Stock Holdings 35
    Total Bond Holdings 141
    % Foreign Stocks 8%
    Portfolio Turnover Rate 100%
    It’s hard to get a grasp on the inner workings of “alternative” (sometimes called black-box) funds. Actually, the layout above copied from Lipper is clearer than for many. Note the 1% (negative) holdings in equities (short position).
    Just wanted to share. I do own it. My bigger gripe is the near 1.3% ER. However, that’s in line with similar funds, actually on the low end. Obviously, the managers aren’t “high” on prospects for stocks at current valuations.
    my guess - The fund is long some stocks and short some others in roughly equal amounts. Net-net it’s 1% negative stocks. What about all that cash? Likely that’s to cover the short equity positions. Another oddity is that everything appears to equal about 100%. Funds that short equities and play in derivatives often have large cash / bond positions which laid out on paper display a total invested amount of 120% or greater / ISTM.
  • Best ETF or Mutual Funds for severe inflationary cycle?
    … just asking what % would most seem apropos, is it 10%, 15% etc.”
    For many years I kept 10% in my “real assets” sleeve - which always included a commodity & real estate fund - and occassionally a mining fund. I kept another 10% in international bonds which might shelter against inflation too - and rebalanced back and forth between the two.
    For many years I lost $$ on the commodities part as they went through a brutal decade+ long bear market. A year ago may have seen rock-bottom when they were literally giving oil away on the futures markets - hard as it is to believe. The real estate and gold funds did better over that time - helped along with some tactical buying and selling. But commodities stunk.
    Growing more conservative with age, I’ve curtailed the real assets sleeve to 8%. Most risk assets have been curtailed. Not what my instincts would prefer. But I have no control over the aging process.
    The above doesn’t take into consideration a roughly 10% hold in PRPFX - which spreads the money all around - and includes gold, silver, natural resources & real estate. It runs hot and cold, so I’d be loath to recommend it to someone today after a nice streak.
  • David's May 1 Commentary posted
    Hi, guys.
    And thanks for the kind words. They mean more than you know.
    Too, don't write us off just yet. At base, I'm looking for a path toward the fulfillment of two goals: (1) some better balance in my life and (2) new energy and fresh perspectives for MFO. In my ideal world, that might mean a partner to help set editorial direction, contribute to the writing and build more bonds within the industry. Assuming an interest on their part, I'd continue to contribute ... but maybe 3,000 words rather than 15,000?
    My current aspiration is to contact folks we've worked with in the past ... managers, media relations folks, newsletter editors, some of the fund trusts ... to see if they have creative ideas or leads.
    It's going to be an adventure!
    David
  • MFO May be Going Away
    @InformalEconomist- Thanks, I was just about to post essentially the same info in response.
    To all: Please address any further questions or comments to InformalEconomist's original posting, so that we don't wind up with two separate threads on the same subject.
  • Stocks Are Off to Best Start to a Presidential Term Since Great Depression - WSJ
    Jerome Powel is Trump's hand picked Fed Chair, one of Trump's "top of the line professionals".
    Nevertheless, Trump agreed with you that Powell was "foolish" and "crazy" However, Trump came to that conclusion when Powell raised interest rates. Trump felt rates should be lowered. That's just what Powell is doing now.
    Moving past the ad hominem remark, we get to Banana Republic, surely not the clothing store :-)
    Over the past century, “banana republic” has evolved to mean any country (with or without bananas) that has a ruthless, corrupt, or just plain loopy leader who relies on the military and destroys state institutions in an egomaniacal quest for prolonged power. ...
    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/is-america-becoming-a-banana-republic
    Rather than a banana republic, perhaps what you had in mind was the Weimar Republic?
    https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/commandingheights/shared/minitext/ess_germanhyperinflation.html
    At any time one can find conspicuous consumption in all age groups. That said, an objective account would show that Porsche was and remains a brand for males going through midlife crises.
    From Fortune, January 1995:
    The demographics of the Porsche owner are utterly predictable: a 40-something male college graduate earning over $200,000 per year.
    https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1995/01/16/201811/

    Plus ça change
    :
    The demographic of the Porsche owner, includes a college graduate, household income over $100,000, 85% male, and 15% female. The typical Porsche owner is 40 years old and up ...
    The age demographic rose from an average age of 48 in 2007 to an average age of 51 in 2012.
    https://www.stephenzoeller.com/targetmarket-segment-porsche/
    FWIW, what I saw in Silicon Valley at the turn of the century were stock rich entrepreneurs driving Bimmers, not Porsches. (Well, Larry Ellison drove a Testarossa.) Me, I was zipping down I-280 at 100+MPH in my MR2. 80% of the fun for 30% of the price (see 80/20 rule). Value investing.
  • Best ETF or Mutual Funds for severe inflationary cycle?
    @hank,
    Ha! I see what you did there...out in left field...apologies if I did not communciate my question clearly...did not mean to imply that I would put all or most of monies as an inflation hedge...just asking what % would most seem apropos, is it 10%, 15% etc.
    The Invesco funds you listed seem interesting, but...will admit I am shying away from derivatives, swaps and the like...do like the looks of the PRAFX T Rowe fund, I'm going to ponder it further...
    I could be wrong but I have seen info that equities at times are NOT a good inflation hedge contrary to what many beleive. Equities took it on the chin in late 70s early 80's.
    Real estate intrigues me, home prices going thru the roof (pun intended), multi-family housing growing like weeds. Home Depot, bought out HDS HD Supply, had large div who sells to multi family developers etc..(Disclosure: I hold a lot of HD stock)
    Gold...has worked in the past but maybe Bitcoin is the ultimate either farce or statement/ clever investment in which many believe too much central banks have grossly increased their balance sheets and money supply??
    Have to hand it to Fleckenstein...he's been consistent thru the years on his views, maybe wrong, but consistent...and I'm hoping he still has that good hair...
    Take care/Best,
    Baseball Fan
  • Franklin International Small Cap Fund will re-open to investors
    This fund is being completely changed. When it reopens, it will be with a new subadvisor, Clearbridge (Legg Mason, now owned by Franklin Templeton). Until then, the fund (with its 1* rating) will continue to be managed by Franklin Templeton.
    Based on the managers named, one may expect it to be a sibling, if not a clone, of 3* Clearbridge Int'l Small Cap (LCOAX). F-T is significantly reducing fees on the Franklin fund to roughly match that of the Clearbridge fund.
  • Stocks Are Off to Best Start to a Presidential Term Since Great Depression - WSJ
    Morning Class,
    Biden, Yellen, Powell...ya'll think these clowns have it under control? You have got to be kidding me...turning this country into a Banana Republic...bankrupting our future generations, debasing our currency, creating inequality up the ying yang, the "rich", meaning kooky Bernie Sanders and kooky Liz Warren get wealthier and wealthier while they "fog" and rail against "billionaires" to purposely obfuscate the real issues, meaning our number one export in the USA is and has been sending real jobs overseas, that is what causes all these issues, not whether we should pay a burger flipper $15/hr.
    @Tarwheel, respect your comments re the Trumpster (what a crazy mofo, huh?) but this all reminds me of the turn of the ceturury when the 20 something year olds were driving 911's, riding limo's smoking cigars in back...it all came crashing down.
    These clowns are going to put us thru an inflationary cycle which will make the 70's and 80's look like a day on the beach in LaJolla...
    Good Luck and Good Health to all regardless of your political views,
    Baseball Fan
  • Franklin International Small Cap Fund will re-open to investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1124459/000137949121001970/filing223986418.htm
    Excerpt:
    Franklin International Small Cap Fund
    The Fund will reopen to new investors on June 1, 2021. Prior to that date and since June 3, 2013, the Fund was closed to new investors, with limited exceptions that permit the following categories of investors to continue to open new accounts in the Fund: (1) Trustees and officers of the Trust; (2) members of the Fund’s portfolio management team; (3) 401k plans that have signed a letter of intent (dated prior to the Fund’s closure) to invest in the Fund; (4) participants in any 401k plan that is already a shareholder of the Fund or has provided Management with a letter of intent (dated prior to the Fund’s closure) to invest in the Fund; (5) clients of discretionary investment allocation programs where such programs had investments in the Fund prior to the Fund’s closure; and (6) other Franklin Templeton funds. The Fund reserves the right to modify this policy at any time.