Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Preparing Your Portfolio for Inflation
    The Changing Characteristics of Labor:
    ...by all accounts robots and other forms of automation are set to explode in usage. What this means is that trillions more “hands” will enter the labor force. Better yet, these “hands” will work 24-hours a day, 365 days a year. They’ll never call in sick, or quit either. Their immense productivity will enable human specialization that will render the present rather primitive by comparison. We’re amazed in modern times that there are professional video game players, and video game coaches, but in future decades the previously-mentioned professions will be ho hum compared to what people will eventually be paid to do.
    Forbe's Article:
    ignore-the-pessimists-the-baby-bust-is-a-bullish-market-signal
  • Best ETF or Mutual Funds for severe inflationary cycle?
    Bloomberg Article on Demand and Price Inflation:
    Mattress producers to car manufacturers to aluminum foil makers are buying more material than they need to survive the breakneck speed at which demand for goods is recovering and assuage that primal fear of running out. The frenzy is pushing supply chains to the brink of seizing up. Shortages, transportation bottlenecks and price spikes are nearing the highest levels in recent memory, raising concern that a supercharged global economy will stoke inflation.
    The World Economy Is Suddenly Running Low on Everything
    inflation-rate-2021-and-shortages-companies-panic-buying-as-supplies-run
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    I thought the original topic worth airing. Appreciate all the great input from members. Lots of great ideas on this and associated investment subjects.
    Bottom line for me (from the experience related above) is that none of the four fund families I deal with any longer appear to require the medallion for transfers under 50K or 100K (depending on institution). With my retirement distributions consistently coming out of TRP, I can continue to “feed the goose that lays the golden egg” as necessary without the added hassle. Amen. :)
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    We had a medallion signature guaranty run around with Vanguard. We had a joint taxable account that we were splitting into two individual trust accounts as part of an estate plan. Vanguard required a medallion signature on the transfer paperwork (even though the names were all the same and the money was staying at Vanguard). We went to our local credit union, but they only guaranty up to $50k. We went to Fidelity, where my husband's 401k is, and they said no because the paperwork wasn't for a Fidelity account. After many, many phone calls to Vanguard, they finally admitted that we could sign up for voice verification and then do the whole thing online. So, might be worth asking about electronic verification alternatives.
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    FAIRX added medallion guarantee requirements in the prospectus dated March 16, 2009. One can compare that with the March 31, 2008 prospectus that did not have those requirements.
    FAIRX went from $3.7B as of Nov 30, 2006 to $6.5B as of Nov 30, 2007 to $6.7B as of Nov 2008, to $8.2B as of May 31, 2009, to $10.6B as of Nov 30, 2009.
    Annual figures from 2010 prospectus
    May 2009 figure from 2009 semi-annual report
    There does not appear to have been a deep drawdown around the time the requirements were added. There were however at least a couple of other notable changes made that March.
    First, and my guess for why the policy was changed is that the fund changed distributors. For the past two years it had used Quasar Distributors (an affiliate of US Bancorp Fund Services). It switched to PFPC Distributors (an indirect subsidiary of PNC Financial Services Group).
    Second, the fund made a major change in investment policies regarding securities it could invest in. Previously it could invest "in securities of public companies including ... equity securities, such as common stocks, partnership interests, business trust shares, convertible securities, and rights and warrants [to purchase such securities]".
    After March 16 it would "achieve the Fund's investment objective by investing in a focused portfolio of equity and fixed-income securities." Emphasis added.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1096344/000094040009000260/fairhm77q1.txt
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    @Hank. I own FAIRX. At some point, FAIRX changed the rules. For selling more than $50K worth of shares, FAIRX now requires a medallion signature (ONLINE transaction not via postal mail). I think this is from when people were pulling $$ out of FAIRX in drove (a long while ago when FAIRX went from I think $16-18 billions to $5 billions and now $1 billion). I am not happy with that rule. However, I stuck with FAIRX. Don't ask me why?
  • When to take Social Security
    "But why stress over that choice? Whats the + or - going to be, $10k, 20k, 30k maybe? A piddly amount in the scheme of things?"
    Here's a quick look at the magnitude of the risk, worst case. According to SSA, the average retiree monthly check (as of Dec 2020) is $1,544. That is likely less than what the average PIA (primary insurance amount - amount one would get at normal retirement age) is, because so many people take SS benefits early. For our back-of-the-envelope purposes, $1600 seems like a reasonable amount to use for the typical full retirement monthly benefit.
    Someone born in 1954 retiring in 2021 (age 67) would receive 108% of PIA if they started benefits at age 67, and 132% of PIA if they waited until age 70.
    https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/1943-delay.html
    https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/planner/delayret.html
    So we can compare a benefit of $1728/mo for an extra 36 months to a benefit of $2112/mo starting at age 70. Worst case if delaying is 36 x $1728 = $62,208 (dying right before turning 70). If we use 100 years old as an upper bound on living, the "worst" case (living too long) of not delaying is:
    lost extra income over 30 years minus gained extra income over first three years =
    30 years x 12mo/year x ($2112 - $1728) - $62,208 = $138,240 - $62,208 = $76,032.
    That's about 2.5x as big a variation as suggested. But that's not the key point. The key point is that by deferring benefits risk of a lower cash flow in very old age is being reduced, and risk reduction has real value. At least for the risk averse.
    (FWIW, one of my grandparents lived to near 100, and while 1 in 4 aren't the best odds, it's enough to offer hope and for me to use age 100 for my own planning purposes.)
    In short, the piddly (or not so piddly) variation in possible legacies may pale in comparison to the value of the risk reduction achieved should one have the "bad luck" of living a long life.
  • Barron’s May 17 Issue - A few take-aways …
    image
    (No luck cutting and pasting this week. So here’s a few take-aways from this week’s Barrons.)
    - There’s a lot of inflation discussion in this week’s issue. Randall Forsyth covers the story in his weekly column, as do some other writers. “Year-over-year” the latest month’s inflation figure came in at +4.2%. One home builder is quoted as saying that he can no longer obtain a firm price on lumber he orders. Prices are rising so fast that the lumber company he deals with won’t commit to a firm price until the day of delivery.
    - The most recent U of M consumer confidence survey fell slightly. Barron’s attributes that to worries about inflation.
    - There’s also a lengthy article about some new ETFs that allow investors to hedge against bond interest rate risk via various approaches. Several are mentioned. (As discussed in another thread here, Price’s Dynamic Income fund, RPIEX attempts to do the same by selling bonds short.)
    - One knowledgeable fixed income trader describes TIPS as “very expensive” and advises against owning them.
    - Somewhat curiously, Forsyth devotes considerable space to PRPFX which he views as a possible haven in light of mounting inflationary pressures and distorted asset valuations. Forsyth briefly references manager Michael Cuggino’s views on the current financial backdrop.
    This seems like an exceptionally substantive issue, which I’ve only half read at best. The value to me of Barron’s is that it causes me to think a lot about different approaches to investing and different types of investments. Barron’s is not a “how to invest” or “what to buy” guide. Just a great thought provoker.
  • CTFAX - COLUMBIA THERMOSTAT FUND ALLOCATION UPDATE
    Thanks @Observant1. I don't think that was well explained last year when they moved the floor from 10% to 50%. I assumed that was a "permanent" change to the funds mandate. Being able to make a floor change like that, within 1 year, still doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Their thematic approach is to adjust based on stock market valuation. Leave the floor at 10% and adjust per their value algorithms. Seems Columbia has over-complicated the funds philosophy IMHO.
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    Here's a similar thread I started a couple of years ago.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54511/administrative-nuisances-with-some-financial-institutions
    The policies and procedures of different institutions are all over the map. I think that a rational argument can be made for requiring medallion signatures in some cases, but not to the extent that some places do.
    To address @ET91's question about why a notarized signature isn't sufficient: A notarization validates your signature, but not the accuracy or even truthfulness of what you're signing. Consider a certified check. A bank will certify a check that you write only after if verifies that you have the money in your account and it puts that money aside to cover the check. Notarizing a check does not make it "as good as cash". Similar to check certification, medallion stanps guarantee that you do own the stated security in the stated institution.
    It's not unreasonable for the institution guaranteeing the document to review what it is guaranteeing and to keep copies for its records. I agree that it used to be easier to get medallion guarantees - at least to the extent that institutions weren't so restrictive about what they would guarantee.
    Then there are the banks .... I had a similar experience to what @catch22 described - with a relative for whom mobility (rather than distance) was a problem. No accommodation offered. Then there's the pettiness. The only time I've used BofA for a notarized signature (for which they require you to be a customer), the bank insisted on charging me the legal maximum for the service: $2! (I could have billed it to my HOA since I was getting a document notarized for the HOA, but I like to think I have better values than BofA ... at least $2 better :-) )
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    Fro @Catch’s Patriot Act link above:
    “What Banks Consider to be Suspicious Activity …
    “Another red flag for banks is when you have account activity that is out of the ordinary. For example, if you normally make $5,000 deposits into your business checking account every two weeks, making much larger deposits could trigger an account audit.

    “The Patriot Act does not require banks to notify you that your account is being investigated for suspicious activity. This means that your bank can freeze your account without telling you the reason. While you're in the dark about what is going on, the bank is most likely filing a Suspicious Activities Report with the federal government … .”
    Makes me wonder if transferring a large sum (like $25,000) from a mutual fund to a bank checking account in anticipation of buying a new car or other major outlay would trigger this? Seems to me that if the government was serious about money laundering they’d impose some tighter sanctions on crypto.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show - with Consuelo Mack
    Tribute to Davis Swensen:


    The Persistence and Predictability of Closed-EndFund Discounts - Burton G. Malkiel:
    Unlike a regular (open-end) mutual fund, which sells new shares at net asset value (in some cases plus a sales charge) and also redeems shares at the net asset value (in some cases minus a redemption fee), a closed-end fund issues a fixed number of shares that then trade in the stock market just like an ordinary stock. Holders of shares who wish to liquidate must sell their shares to other investors. The shares are typically issued at net asset value (NAV) plus a fee to defray underwriting costs. Thus, the fund begins life selling at a premium. But typically, within months, the stock of the fund persistently sells at a discount to NAV.This persistent discount appears to violate the law of one price and constitutes the closed-end fund puzzle.
    www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Courses/956/Resource/CEF/MalkielXu.pdf
    Closed-End Fund (CEF) Investing: 14 Criteria For Better Yield:
    https://wantfi.com/closed-end-fund-investing-guide.html
  • Latest Medallion Signature Guarantee Requirements / FYI
    Snippets of rules and regs.....
    The below is from BOA, but typical of other banks:
    --- In order to add or remove an owner and add, remove or update a beneficiary on your Bank of America account, you'll need to schedule an appointment in a financial center. When adding an owner, all account owners will need to be present at the appointment and bring a valid government-issued photo ID.
    Example: Parent or parents want to add an adult daughter(s) or son(s) to their savings/checking account at their bank or credit union. A very good idea in the event of impairment or death of the parent/parents. Control of the account may be maintained for bill paying, etc.; by the daughter(s) or son(s). Account beneficiary(s) as well as a Power of Attorney is a separate matter for this discussion. SO.....mom, dad and adult son (who lives nearby) have to be present together to sign new documents. Later, let's add 1 daughter who lives 100 miles away. Mom, dad, son and daughter all have to be present to sign another new document. Still later, let's add daughter number 2 who lives 220 miles away. Mom, dad, son and daughter number 1, with daughter 2 all have to be present with a bank officer to create another new document.
    I asked a bank officer I know about this process. I asked about which provisions for all of this may be relative to the Patriot Act. She only stated that some policies of the bank were internal to their operation and that other policies were "noted" as a "follow the Federal rules" aspect.
    2005.....Patriot Act compliance, then and renewed/expanded since
    Patriot Act and banking
  • How much is enough??
    I recall an old pilot’s saying to the effect that you never have “too much” runway or altitude. The runway behind you or the sky overhead won’t do you any good if trouble arises.
    Suspect that’s somewhat akin to financial resources. The money you’ve already spent / squandered or the investment opportunities you’ve overlooked won’t be of help if an unforeseen need arises.
    Than there’s this.
  • How much is enough??
    From the Gambler, Frank, the loan shark, played by John Goodman...(I cleaned up the language a bit)
    "You get up two and a half million dollars, any arse in the world knows what to do: you get a house with a 25 year roof, an indestructible Jap-economy sheetbox, you put the rest into the system at three to five percent to pay your taxes and that’s your base, get me? That’s your fortress of freaking solitude. That puts you, for the rest of your life, at a level of freak you. Somebody wants you to do something, freak you. Boss pisses you off, freak you! Own your house. Have a couple bucks in the bank. Don’t drink."
    I dunno...I know retired attorney's who chase the little white ball around all day...learn to paint, travel to lands that I have no interest in seeing....seems kinda boring to me, what's the point?
    I think the real how much/wealthy are the one's who are healthy, their family is healthy and secure, they don't worry about affording groceries, live in safe neighborhood, low crime/dingbats/noise and they are happy working in jobs they enjoy and do not dread Monday mornings and have several weeks off during the year to recharge.
    To each his own, I guess..and we have to play the card's we are dealt, no?
    Good Health and Good Luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • What will you do if (when?)...."frothy" markets turn into a Scheisse Fest?
    Hello, @hank
    At the moment, my fund managers have me -6% in short positions. Cash and bonds.
    57: bonds
    39: stocks
    "other:" 3
    Net 4% in cash.

    @Crash Thanks for clarifying. Yep - you did specify RPSIX. I get RPSIX and PRSIX turned around all the time. I don’t hold RPSIX and haven’t for over a year. FWIW Yahoo shows it holding 4% in their Global Dynamic Bond Fund - Class Z.
    If I’m reading you correctly, you are net-short the equity markets. That’s remarkable considering RPSIX alone has a 14% weighting in their Equity and Income fund (PRFDX).
    Might work. Nothing I’d be comfortable with. Good luck with that.
    No disrespect to M*, but I haven’t used their analyzer in years. (Apparently, it’s widely used and respected among the community here.) I try instead to evaluate each fund in the portfolio on its own merits based on current holdings, charts, manager, investment style and expenses. Just different ways of attempting to determine potential risk & reward I guess.