https://www.google.com/amp/s/time.com/5828898/stocks-recovering-economy-collapses-makes-sense/?amp=true
Stocks Are Recovering While the Economy Collapses. That Makes More Sense Than You'd Think
" On March 23, U.S. stock markets closed the day after a multi-week plunge of nearly 30%. This drop coincided with a wave of lockdowns across the country, as well as similar moves throughout Europe, Latin America and South Asia. Since then, the U.S. economy has been in free-fall, with more than 26 million people filing for unemployment, waves of retail stores on the edge of bankruptcy, energy and oil companies teetering on the brink, travel grounded, and the GDP was down 4.8% in the first quarter and this quarter is likely to be much worse. The stock market? Overall, stocks are up across all indices more than 30% from that low point in late March."
Anyone have little concerns about massive money pumped into market by our feds/and other countries' central banks. Everything is hyperinflated/paper money. We have similar thoughts after 2009 crash but market kept going up and folks keep buying, central govt keep pouring the coolaids to allow parties to continue. Who knows, if 2nd wave indeed hit late summer/ fall, the parties may abruptly end.

SEC alleges willful violation and other funds were cited as well (Pimco etc.)

Outside of PIMCO, do you know of other bond funds inflating their early performance this way?
https://www.sec.gov/news/pressrelease/2016-252.html
The "willful" part wasn't exactly necessary. As the SEC pointed out, negligence would have been sufficient. It even referenced Steadman in this regard. There, the SEC said that "if we were to conclude that the [defendants] meant to defraud investors, we would have to believe that they did it for the sheer joy of it rather than for profit."
There were multiple problems with what both PIMCO and Semper did. Notably that they inflated performance figures and that they did not disclose this.
Lots of funds seem to do unusually well right out of the gate due to small size. If they can purchase small (odd) lots at a discount and actually resell them at full value, they can boost returns. PIMCO might have been able to do this for a short time, buying up small lots until it had enough to sell round lots. That would have made its performance figures legitimate but still misleading. That's why the lack of disclosure mattered.

It's so tempting to buy now IOFIX,VCFAX and especially EIXIX which I think is "safer" but I don't dare. These broken MBS might have a problem
[and later ...]
Corp bonds rated invested grade were down 13% from the top. Black swan is unknown ... Pimco top ones PCI, PDI lost 30-40%.

The funds you look at do seem broken. As corporates and MBSs recovered, these funds continued going down. Which is why, as Baseball_Fan wrote, it's important to know what you own, not just what their "stats" are.
Every once in awhile, a picture really is worth a thousand words. Here's a graph showing YTD curves for MBB (iShares MBS), PTRIX (Pimco MBS fund), VTC (Vanguard Total Corporate ETF), VCFAX, and SEMRX.
All dipped to varying degrees, but the first three recovered and are positive on the year.
VCFAX flattened and is down 13%; SEMRX continued to plunge and is down 22%.
SEMMX is negative over 1, 3, and 5 years. (It has not been around for a decade yet.) Next to that, DODIX looks pretty good. A problem with putting too much faith in volatility figures over a generally quiescent period is that one is blinded to latent risks.
These "black swan" events come almost like clockwork. 2020, 2009, 2000, 1987, 1974. Pandemic risk is unknown? That sounds like a politician.
"Over the past quarter century, warnings have been clear and consistent from both US government leaders, scientists, and global health officials: A pandemic was coming—and whenever it arrived, it would be catastrophic to the global economy."
https://www.wired.com/story/an-oral-history-of-the-pandemic-warnings-trump-ignored/

Majority may probably get better. Family was/[? from me? ]is heavily exposed (even w ppe and proper precautions working in medicine floor and sub acute setting]. She had stay home feel very bad few days....did not get tested because was long waiting at testing centers. Supervisor was understaffed and told us -we have come back work 3 days later instead of 14.
Even the infection disease physicians at facility changed the guidelines folks whom are well can return 3-7days instead of 14. We were hesitant/concerned but did confirmed reaffirmation with CDC guidelines and came back to work. We are doing extremely well now..We did discussed with the infection disease team, they state 70-98.5% gets it may have no issues [depending on different studies]
Unfortunately one 57 yo lady with many health issues passed away at facility. We do keep her in our prayers

Here is a little more info:

In the vast majority of younger adults, covid-19 appears to result in mild illness with the risk of more severe consequences rising with every decade of age. According to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data, 0.8 percent of U.S. deaths as of Apr. 18 were in people ages 25 to 34; 2 percent among those 35 to 44; and 5.4 percent among those 45 to 54.

From: https://washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
Also, there seems to be a fairly strong link between having a severe case of Covid-19 and being obese among young people:

Young adults with obesity are more likely to be hospitalized, even if they have no other health problems, studies show.

https://nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-obesity-higher-risk.html

First of all, since when is below the age of 60 considered "young?" People in the their 40s and 50s are not "young." This is a nice way to skew the numbers. I live in Massachusetts and know all about the numbers in the state. Bottom line: It's a scandal for nursing homes and long term care facilities, where 50-60% of all deaths in the state are occurring. Average age of death from the Chinese Flu is 82 years old in Mass. Most people that die are in their 70s and older. Look at the Mass. DPH numbers and get back to me. If you are really "young," you have virtually nothing to worry about, other than getting a cold or flu-like symptoms.

SEC remedy:
https://www.sec.gov/enforce/ia-5489-s

@Charles - no doubt small comfort but IOFIX is up 10% over the last month.
With respect to the SEC filing against Semper this is an old issue about pricing of odd-lot MBS securities in 2013-2014.
The SEC states that 126 odd lots were priced according to round lot prices, leading to an overstatement of approx 3.5% of their value, and thus an elevated NAV during that period.
SEC alleges willful violation and other funds were cited as well (Pimco etc.)
It is not related to the most recent fund collapse.

I believe this is the SEC order:
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2020/ia-5489.pdf

Hello ... and, Good Mroning! Here in the States, as I write, stock futures are up across the board along with oil. Could be a good day for stocks. Treasury yields are up which means bond prices have declined as yields and prices generally move in an opposite direction of one another.
Inspite of the decline in the S&P 500 Index yesterday my portfolio did well due to a good number of foreign markets having an up day as I have about a 30% weighting to foreign. My three best performing funds yesterday were PMDAX +1.98% (a domestic small/mid cap dividend value fund) ... DWGAX +1.23% (a developing world dividend paying equity fund) ... and, HWIAX (1.11%) a deep value dividend paying hybrid fund). Seems some investors might be in the hunt for dividends, and value, now that equity valuations appear to be streached.

I'm in the SEMRX doghouse. Fortunately I'm down only $85, but now feel like a dope for buying this fund !

There are many different features that lead someone to prefer one financial institution over another. I came up with a number of relatively minor features that I personally place some value in. Haven't found a single perfect institution though. YMMV.
- individual 401(k): free, Roth option, in-service distributions, investment options (full brokerage or house funds). See The College Investor for other features and major providers. Some brokerages provide Roth options; Fidelity and Schwab do not. Vanguard and T. Rowe Price do provide a Roth option, but limit investments to house funds.
- Retail HSA account (not through employer): free, no min cash balance required to invest. Fidelity is the only brokerage I know of that offers HSA accounts directly. Lively (an HSA provider) gives you a brokerage window to TD Ameritrade. See The HSA Report Card for detailed analyses of HSA providers.
- Cash management (bank) services: bill pay, checking, good interest (relatively speaking), ATM access. Vanguard has high interest and checking, but no bill pay or ATM card. At Vanguard and Fidelity, if your core account does not have enough cash to cover a check, they can automatically draw from another (higher yielding) MMF. Many brokerages other than Vanguard provide bill pay and ATM access with surcharge rebates. These features are not so important if you employ a regular bank account.
Schwab's ATM card charges no foreign (international) transaction fee; Fidelity's sometimes charges a 1% fee. Others tend to charge at least this much and may limit surcharge rebates to US ATMs.
- Fractional share purchases of stocks/ETFs (e.g. $100 exactly of MINT). This is something Schwab promised. AFAIK only Fidelity has delivered. (Robinhood rolled out fractional shares earlier this month but it doesn't support limit orders.) Fractional shares is the only "yet to use" feature on my list. It should make buying ETFs easier - more like mutual funds.
- Donor advised funds:low min to open, low grant min, low maintenance cost, low cost funds, wide variety of funds. T. Rowe Price seems to have the lowest "all in" (admin + fund expenses) cost for actively managed funds, but not lowest if using index funds. Fidelity and Schwab have the lowest mins and are low cost. Fidelity has a small advantage on fund costs and variety of funds. Not that one needs many funds for this type of account. It's convenient if the DAF account is with your brokerage as that makes contributing easier.
This list of 74 DAFs is about a decade old, but still gives a good sense of costs and what's out there.

SEC brings enforcement action against mgr of Semper MBS Total Return Fund.
https://twitter.com/syouth1/status/1255232240809922561?s=20

Hi @Crash, I'm thinking that S&P 500 pushing 3000 streaches things a bit. With this, I'm looking for it to trade sideways and range bound for a while. Again, earnings are going to have to come in around the $150.00+ range to support a 3000+ valuation. I don't think we are there yet. Perhaps, by late summer or early fall things will be somewhat sorted out by then with Q3 and Q4 earings looking better.

...And yet, the day's action fizzled. NASDAQ got killed. International was better, I hope, as I reach for a 2nd cup of Joe at 10:50 a.m.

Thanks for this info. I need to work through the app David linked. I imagine it’s similar to https://www.firecalc.com/
I like the idea of using the rates the IRS uses for RMDs - Which is discussed here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal
I am somewhat of a believer in the “Retirement Redzone” theory which says you need to be somewhat conservative in your investments in the last 5 years before retirement. But also in the first 5 years of retirement when you have 30 more years to go living off what you have.

Hi @Derf, Thaks for stopping by and reading along with your question concerning stock picking (active management) vs. Index funds in which you seek a yes (or no) answer. For me ... the answer depends ... and, I'll explain. Some actively managed funds will beat the S&P 500 Index while some will trail it. In looking back over my portfolio I have five activley managed equity funds that over a five and ten year period that have bettered the Index (SPY). Over a one and three year period I have six actively managed all equity funds that have bettered the Index (SPY). I also have some good dividend paying equity funds that pay a higher dividend than the Index and overall trail it a bit. With this, and in some cases the answer to your question is a yes and under another the answer is a no.
My thinking is that a lot will depend on how new money money gets invested. Under an Index format new money gets spread through the Index lifting all positions held. In a cap weighted Index it gets spread based upon a cap weighted basis with larger positions catching more of the money over smaller ones. In an equally weighted Index new money is spread evenly. And, in actively managed funds it gets invested upon the manager's call.
With this, there is not, from my perspective, a yes (or a no) answer to be found ... as it depends.
Skeet

Yep
The only question is will we have robust testing and contact tracing up and running when it comes back.
I strongly recommend Tomas Pueyo series for common sense and solid recommendations.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-how-to-do-testing-and-contact-tracing-bde85b64072e
Unfortunately no one in Washington is listening

@bee Sorry if I'm being dense. My wife has an HSA through her employer. I understand contributions are tax deferred and I also understand it converts to IRA after you retire, or if you lose your job. What I didn't know however is you can invest it right away. First, will find out if the HSA is even invested is some fund at her employer plan. Second, if possible to divert funds into external fund.
However, most important question. Isn't investing it risky? I mean what if fund tanks right about the time you need to pay doctor and you run out of cash? For us, HSA just started last year and we used a bit of it of course already, so not much there at this time.

We have had many thorough conversations here at MFO. Here's what I searched:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/search?Search=HSA
Just a few points I have gathered about how an HSA works:
HSA is triple tax advantage. Tax deductible when contributed (you have many contribution options...including mutual funds...Fidelity seems to be providing a great platform for HSA investment options).
HSA's grow tax deferred. If used after 65 for non-medical withdrawals you will pay taxes in the year you make those withdrawals much like an deferred IRA. There is a 10% penalty for non-medical withdrawals prior to 65. There is no actual RMDs, but if you plan on reimbursing yourself later don't leave tax free withdrawals on the table forever...HSA withdrawal rules change for beneficiaries after you die.
Medically qualified withdrawals are always tax free at anytime and withdrawals can be reimbursable at a later point in time (this could be many years later) if you pay out of pocket instead of your HSA. Keep track of medical qualified expenses for these reimbursements. Keep track of what you have already paid for and what you plan on being reimbursed for. Make a spreadsheet...save records.
Inheritable HSA provisions are completely transferable to your spouse as a Spousal HSA. If your beneficiary is a spouse it continues to have tax-free withdrawal status. A non-spouse inherits an HSA much like an Inherited IRA (taxable)...Inherited HSA. If your beneficiaries are non- spouse(s) make sure you reimburse yourself before you pass. In this manner you have made a tax free withdrawal (your withdrawal is tax free while alive). Even if you don't need this withdrawal you can at least pass it tax free to beneficiaries.

The staying power of Covid-19 will impact the investing landscape until a vaccine is widely available.

Chinese scientists say the novel coronavirus will not be eradicated, adding to a growing consensus around the world that the pathogen will likely return in waves like the flu.
It’s unlikely the new virus will disappear the way its close cousin SARS did 17 years ago, as it infects some people without causing obvious symptoms like fever. This group of so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday.

https://time.com/5828325/coronavirus-covid19-seasonal-asymptomatic-carriers/