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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    David Giroux of PRWCX is only 47! He started with the fund when he was just 31 and for years people said that he was young and inexperienced but he showed them all.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_R._Giroux
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    @bee, Never owned VWINX. Been tracking it all year and am very impressed. Steady Eddy if there ever was. As of yesterday it was down less than 7% YTD. One compeditor, PRSIX i like to track is off over 10% at this point. I guess there’s a roughly .50% difference in fees, which accounts for part, but not all, of that difference,
    Just watching PRWCX almost since inception I would consider it too risky to use as the sole ingredient in a retirement / staged withdrawal plan. But I’ve been taking aim at it for couple decades now and it continues to defy my worst forebodings. Look at virtually any other fund run by T. Rowe and you’ll find periods of overperformance and underperformance. But not this one - yet. Just rambling here. Hats off to Giroux for the job he’s done. One wonders who might replace him some day.
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    I am little concerned w USA jobs market/ data Feds plans, recessions, uncontrolled inflation....
    I am more concerned w other parts of world - EU USSR and especially CHINA economy -housing bubble [??Lehman brothers 2.0) -c19 frequent recurrent Locks Downs -recession surely pull all of us down/sink whole global economy
    If that the case sp500 head toward 2900 Triple dip [april 2020, early 2022, and late 2022-2023)
    Sp500 severe resistance near below 3900 if breaks ...waterfall
  • Where is Randall Forsyth?
    He may be on vacation.
    Barron's new Editor has been doing lots of columnists rotations and Eric Savitz (normally, the Tech columnist) tried his hands on Up and Down Wall Street this week. He noted that this was his 1st time ever.
    Some columns have almost gone to alternate weeks - So, no Streetwise this week.
    Steven Sears is the lazy fellow for Options. He turns in his pieces Wed/Thursday and doesn't bother updating them whatever the subsequent news.
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    Despite the clobbering this week, most of the things I watch are still above the lows reached a month to 6 weeks ago. TROW is one good example, closing above $221 yesterday after bottoming around $213. While I no longer fiddle with DKNG, the current $16.00+ is well above the $10-12 where it bottomed 6-8 weeks ago. ARKK, too, is above its low for the year, even after falling around 6% yesterday.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    @bee, I modified your PV run also for initial 4% ($4K/yr) level, initial 4% ($4K/yr) inflation-adjusted:
    Strategy, Ending balance, Notes
    4%, $218.731K, Withdrawal amounts variable; details by @bee
    4K level, $251.433K, More like an annuity
    4K infl-adj, $231.433K, Infl-adj annuity is rare commercially
    MFO doesn't preserve spacing.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Using Mutual Funds for Retirement Income
    I have posed this question to myself... could a fund... or funds serve as a funding source for inflation adjusted retirement income?
    Withdrawal Scenario:
    If a retiree started taking a 4% safe withdrawal rate from a $100,000 investment in PRWCX, how would this fund and the income withdrawn over time fare (3, 5,10, and 15 year) later? Portfolio Visualizer can't predict future returns, but it does allow a user to look back over stressful and successful market conditions.
    To stress test this scenario using PV, I add a market hurdle where by the retiree starts withdrawing from retirement savings at the end 2006. They buy $100,000 worth of PRWCX (or a portfolio of these types of funds) and began taking a 4% yearly withdrawal each year, from 2007 going forward ( 15 year time frame). Over the first two years of retirement, the "annuity portfolio" experienced a 41% loss in value as well as absorbed the required 4% income withdrawals (4% annuity payment). That's stressful.
    Questions:
    Over those first two years of retirement (2007 - 2009), the $100,000 portfolio (stand alone portfolio of just PRWCX) would have dropped to $63,000. Could a retiree hang in there through these first two years? The retiree's withdrawal rate of 4% may have started at $4,000 (4% of $100K), but as the portfolio dropped in value, their next year's withdrawal dwindle to a little less than $3,000 (4% of $63,00) in 2008. Having a cash/ ST bond component to this portfolio might provide a buffer...especially at the start of retirement.
    We have had an investment environment over the last 15 years that has included both monetary stimulus (QE and lowering interest rates) and market shocks (GFC, Covid, Supply disruptions and the rise interest rates). ISTM that a collection of well managed allocation funds could help individual investors balance the risks of the day with the rewards of the day.
    PRWCX seems successful at this. VWINX and VWELX are two others that I run retirement withdrawal scenarios with. Do you have a favorite? Maybe a collection of these would be a better approach. It would help reduce manager risk and might diversify manager strategies.
    Here's a link to Portfolio Visualizer where you could run some of your own scenarios:
    PRWCX as an Annuity
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    Interest rate increases......of benefit to slow down inflation; OR whether that the FED had to do something to appear to be in control of whatever and doing it's work???
    --- What are the three tasks mandated to the Federal Reserve bank?
    It is the Federal Reserve's actions, as a central bank, to achieve three goals specified by Congress: maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates in the United States.
    AND there is the dual mandate, which is often mentioned:
    The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is “stable prices” and “maximum employment,” referring to inflation and unemployment. It sounds complicated but means ensuring that the prices you pay for goods and services remain relatively stable over time and that everyone who wants a job in the U.S. economy can find one.
    The dual mandate represents the two economic objectives empowering the Federal Reserve’s every move. In other words, the Fed uses the federal funds rate rate to steer the economy toward its dual mandate, while also looking at it as an indication of whether it’s time to attempt to prop up the economy with a rate cut or slow it down with a rate hike.
    'Course, as with the market melt/financial crisis of 2008; the FED may become wholly involved with fixes, as needed.
    Inflation is global, yes? Two years of Covid impacted so many areas. A crazy Russian further impacted global inflation in the energy sectors. Climate extremes in many countries has also impacted food inflation.
    IMHO, it is an exaggeration to blame inflation on excessive fiscal support in the United States. Fiscal support was needed to "hand hold" our economic melt from Covid. Acting on its own, the FED can have only a limited effect on global prices; meaning inflation in the United States.
    Higher interest rates to force inflation to 2% ? How many portions of an economy will have to be broken to obtain 2% ?
    This is not Paul Volcker's inflation of the early 1980's. I've been there and done that, too.
    I remain skeptical of the FEDS plan.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Morningstar Discussion Groups: YBB Etal.
    They still exist. But many posters have departed due to repeated format/platform changes and increasingly user-UNfriendly nature of the M* forums.
    The M* TIAA forum is the only one going strong.
    M* DM/PM/Message system has been off for almost a MONTH now.
    Then, due to recent drastic changes in M* Portfolio (old) to terrible M* Investor (new), the M* forums now are full of complaint threads. I don't know if anyone at M* is even reading those.
    Investing https://community.morningstar.com/s/topic/0TO3o000001yV0JGAU/investing-forums
    General Layout https://community.morningstar.com/s/discussion-categories
  • Vanguard Funds Vs Vanguard Index Funds
    Nothing else is required
    Something rather important is required. The assumption that active management costs more than passive management. If I manage my portfolio myself, I am actively managing my assets with 0.00% assessed management costs. OTOH, if I invest passively, I'm paying someone something to determine what is in my passive portfolio and/or to execute it, unless I rely on a published index and personally buy and sell securities to track the index.
    The full statement by Sharpe was that:
    If "active" and "passive" management styles are defined in sensible ways, it must be the case that
    (1) before costs, the return on the average actively managed dollar will equal the return on the average passively managed dollar and
    (2) after costs, the return on the average actively managed dollar will be less than the return on the average passively managed dollar.
    These assertions will hold for any time period. Moreover, they depend only on the laws of addition, subtraction, multiplication and division. Nothing else is required.
    What may have appeared sensible in 1991 may not be so sensible in 2022. Now there are all sorts of esoteric high cost indexes and active ETFs having costs as low or sometimes lower than passive ETFs (e.g. the second and fourth lowest cost ultrashort term ETFs in M*'s table are actively managed - ICSH and VUSB).
    While it is likely true that actively managed dollars are still hit with higher fees (on average) than passively managed dollars, one can no longer show this merely by appealing to common sense as Sharpe did. (Though Sharpe did consider any fund actively managed if it did not cap-weight an entire market; thus, e.g. equal weighted index funds are by his definition actively managed.)
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    Short Term traders - bad sentiments, bearish, doom gloom/ shorts sales make sense
    Long term 2-5 yrs -maybe good time to add positions/buy more and you maybe laughing your ways to the bank 5 yrs from today if we do have market recovery/ bullish scenario
    Still waiting but i did buy more last 8 wks...
    Hang tight very volatile next few weeks -months, maybe another 7 10% leg down testing June's lows ( many gaps unfulfilled)
  • Vanguard Funds Vs Vanguard Index Funds
    Taking a wild guess : yes the return on a single dollar will be more on a low fee passive fund than on a active fund. But if the active fund nets 10% return in a year that its passive near-equivalent nets 5%, you're gonna make more money with the investment in the active fund. Am I missing something?
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    @hank- No, I don't think that the Fed is going to slam on the brakes... more like downshifting through about eight gears. My hunch is that this exercise will take about 18/24 months. If there's a significant worldwide recession that may take some of the pressure off the Fed.
  • Vanguard Funds Vs Vanguard Index Funds
    Vanguard is well-known for its passive index funds.
    However, it is also one of the largest managers of active funds.
    Vanguard's AUM for actively managed funds was more than $1.7 trillion as of February 28, 2022.
    Some of its mutual funds advised by Wellington, Primecap, and Baillie Gifford are quite attractive.
    Link
  • China’s Record Drought: What effect on world trade and environment?
    Barron's cover story this week is on global water crisis. The US has its own water crisis in Colorado River areas - Lake Mead and Lake Powell are below 30% capacity. Agriculture, semi chips and other production along the River path are affected.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/water-shortage-drought-investing-51661467637?mod=hp_HERO
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    I’m not buying it. Markets are still expensive perhaps. Maybe more downside next week. But I’m still optimistic 1-3 years out. Did a little after-hours buying with what little cash I stash in the Roth.
    Powell seems to think, from his remarks, he’s another Paul Volcker and that today’s situation remotely resembles that of the 80s. But Volcker’s 80s followed a decade or more of rising inflation - brought on largely by the ‘baby boomers” joining the job force and buying their first homes, new cars, etc. Than, there was that little budget busting “peace keeping” mission in Vietnam.
    Geez - Less than 2 years ago Powell and his Fed were trying to stoke higher inflation (when they weren’t busy trading the markets for their own personal gain). Now Humble Jerome intends to help the little fella by throwing him out of work. Having no income is a dandy way to “cool demand.” Yes Sir!
  • Vanguard Funds Vs Vanguard Index Funds
    Basic Math
    William Sharpe’s arithmetic of active management is admirably direct: “After costs, the return on the actively managed dollar will be less than the average passively managed dollar,” wrote the good professor in 1991. “These assertions will hold for any time period. Moreover, they depend only on the laws of addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. Nothing else is required.”
    But Many Vanguard managed fund quietly out perform many Vanguard ETFs