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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    The contribution limit for 401k/403b/457 plans will increase from $19,500 in 2021 to $20,500 in 2022.
    The catch-up contribution limit remains $6,500.
    Contribution limits and catch-up contribution limits for Traditional/Roth IRAs are unchanged at $6,000 and $1,000 respectively.
    HSA contribution limits for single coverage will increase from $3,600 in 2021 to $3,650 in 2022.
    HSA contribution limits for family coverage will increase from $7,200 in 2021 to $7,300 in 2022.
    The catch-up contribution limit is unchanged at $1,000.
    Refer to the article for additional contribution/income limits.
    Link
  • Nvidia Stock Tops $750 Billion Market Cap. This Analyst Sees Giant Metaverse Opportunities.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvidia-nvda-stock-record-high-metaverse-51636044280
    Nvidia Stock Tops $750 Billion Market Cap. This Analyst Sees Giant Metaverse Opportunities.
    Updated Nov. 4, 2021 4:12 pm ET / Original Nov. 4, 2021 2:47 pm ET
    Nvidia stock surged to a record in Thursday trading after analysts at Wells Fargo raised their price target by about 30%, saying the videogame- chip powerhouse was well positioned to help build the metaverse.
    Meta
    Nvda
    One Trillion dollars industry soon!!??
    ? Next Apple Google 15 20 yrs ago??
    Can read whole article incognito
  • November Commentary is live!
    @hank
    Better keep and buy more bonds. They do have positive returns, even into the negative yield zone; as with German Bunds.
    Would be nice to be so prescient and and confident as the folks who are able to see into the future of 10 years, or whatever.
  • Women May Be Better Investors Than Men
    I didn't interpret your comment that way.
    Speaking from experience, sometimes doing nothing is the best option but it may be difficuilt not to tinker.
    I believe Jack Bogle said: ""
    Re; “Don‘t Do Something - Just Stand There!”
    David has used the expression with effect in one or more of his Commentaries.
    Bogle was a class act. Would like to have heard his take on today’s markets. While I tinker a lot, fortunately it’s with only 2-3% of assets - just around the edges. Enjoy it. But I’d have more money if I’d sunk 100% in PRWCX 25 years ago and followed with a “RipVanWinkle” act!
  • Some reads from Schwab _ Liz & company.
    And this,
    The SP500 keeps on making higher highs, as the effects of QE4 are still being felt in the banking system, and in the stock market. But there is a troubling divergence among some of the most liquidity sensitive investment vehicles, the high yield corporate bonds. Their A-D Line was leading the way higher ever since the December 2018 bottom, but not any more.
    It is a “condition”, not a “signal”. The wise traders will accept this warning, and use it to help them look for the final moment when the uptrend in prices is at its end. And those same wise traders will also remember that divergences can sometimes rehabilitate themselves.
    troubling_divergence_in_hy_bond
  • Women May Be Better Investors Than Men
    I've heard of the Fidelity "dead investor" study but it appears this study never actually occurred.
    I can confirm that a dead man would have done somewhat better than me on my last couple trades. :)
  • Updated MFO Ratings: March ... MTD Thru 25 April
    All ratings have been updated on MFO Premium site through October 2021, including MultiSearch, Great Owls, Fund Alarm (Three Alarm and Honor Roll), Averages, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, Dashboard of Launch Alerts, Portfolios, Quick Search, and Fund Family Scorecard. The site now includes several analysis tools, including Correlation, Rolling Averages, Trend, Ferguson Metrics, Calendar Year and Period Performance.
    Going forward, we should now be able to post month ending ratings within 2-3 days of month close, thanks to Refinitiv including latest month ending data in their daily drop.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    They started in December 2019 and were fulled deployed, ETFs and futures contracts being really liquid things.
  • 2021 capital gains distribution estimates (mutual funds and ETFs)
    Morningstar emailed a note about CG exposure today. Let me know if you think it warrants a separate post. It reads, in part
    Morningstar’s associate director of equity strategies, Christopher Franz today published the Capital Gains Roundup for 2021, evaluating distribution estimates for some of the largest fund families.
    Highlights include:
    • Based on preliminary estimates from fund families large and small, growth funds once again will make significant distributions, but this year resurgent value strategies will make some big distributions, too.
    • A confluence of another year of robust performance and the ongoing trend of investors swapping out of traditional active vehicles and into exchange-traded funds and other, mostly passive, vehicles have led many managers to realize gains to rebalance their portfolios and meet redemptions.
    • Many prominent T. Rowe Price funds will make meaningful distributions, and some are closed to new investors, which can cause managers to realize gains to meet shareholder redemptions instead of satisfying them with cash inflows.
    • Several Fidelity funds are expected to pay a distribution of more than 5% NAV; the large, widely followed, and Silver-rated Fidelity Contrafund expects to payout 8% of NAV on December 13.
    • A few passive funds at Columbia Threadneedle, which are supposed to be more tax-efficient, estimate they will distribute gains of almost 10% NAV in December.

  • Women May Be Better Investors Than Men
    maybe women follow winners (he said, unsurprised)
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1064755/the-losers-curse

    I am thinking somewhat more of this has to do w the bull market than acknowledged ...
  • FOMC Statement
    "The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In light of the substantial further progress the economy has made toward the Committee's goals since last December, the Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook."
    Link
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    Vanguard ...
    Oh and another thing. They sense of "rounding" is illogical regarding how many shares they give you for whatever price even when you are investing nice whole $ amounts e.g. $1000.
    It seems every institution has its own calculation quirks that show up in penny differences.
    I just looked at a Fidelity brokerage account in which I have a single position (no cash or MMF, just a single equity fund). So the account totals should match the fund totals. But the account percentage increase for the day is 0.01% higher than the fund percentage increase. All the other numbers match.
    It could be that the fund line calculation is truncating the percentage increase while the account calculation is rounding it up. Not worth the effort to figure out what's going on.
  • This Risk Free Bond Now Pays 7.12%
    I'm a little surprised that one could circumvent the $10K limit per year by using a revocable trust. For tax purposes, revocable trusts are treated as an extension of the individual. That's different from irrevocable trusts which (except for grantor trusts) are independent tax entities.
    This is from an old Bogleheads thread regarding transfers of savings bonds into revocable trusts:
    The transfer to our Trust account transpired, but we received the following email
    "Your purchase exceeds the annual savings bond purchase limitation. Please be advised the limit is $10,000 per series and TIN per calendar year. Repeated violations mayresult in an action by this office; for example, a refund of account holdings and/or account closure may occur.
    From TreasuryDirect stating that $10K limit is per TIN:
    Effective January 4, 2012, the annual (calendar year) purchase limit applying to electronic Series EE and Series I savings bonds is $10,000 for each series. The limit is applied per Social Security Number (SSN) or Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN). For paper Series I Savings Bonds purchased through IRS tax refunds, the purchase limit is $5,000 per SSN.
    Is purchasing savings bonds in a revocable trust legal? Yes. Is it legal to use revocable trusts to circumvent the $10K/TIN/year limit? I have my doubts. It seems to work, but that doesn't mean that it is legal.
    From Nolo (regarding TINs for revocable trusts):
    A revocable living trust does not normally need its own TIN (Tax Identification Number) while the grantor is still alive.
    During the grantor's life, the trust is revocable and taxes are paid by the grantor as an individual, using the grantor's SSN (Social Security Number). In other words, when an institution requests an SSN or EIN (Employer Identification Number) for trust property, the grantor just uses his or her own SSN. When the grantor dies, the living trust becomes irrevocable and the successor trustee will get an EIN from the IRS to pay the trust's taxes.
    For shared property in shared living trusts, the grantors can use either person's SSN. When choosing which SSN to use, keep in mind that income on trust property will be reported through the SSN you select. This won't matter to couples who file taxes jointly, but it could make a difference to couples who file taxes with separate returns. For individually owned property in a shared living trust, use the owner's SSN.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    I have tried a number of different managed futures funds over the years, and find that AHLPX has the best track record. BLNDX has beaten it with about the same risk, but I assume that is because BLNDX can use equities.
    M* says BLNDX started in 1/2020 and lost 8% during Covid, beating other hedged equity funds like JHQAX and GATEX, as you might suspect. AHLPX made money that month, however.
    Another MFO hedging favorite CTFAX also lost 9%
    Lots of different ways to hedge the downside, but it is hard to predict in advance which one will be most effective.
    I rarely own Alternative funds but have again been scoping some recently. So please bear with me with this question.
    AHLPX is in the same Alternatives subcategory of "Systemic Trends" as PQTAX. Not sure of their respective managed futures exposures and portfolios could be significantly different,
    That said, if it were me deciding between the two, all performance metrics I usually review would point me to selecting PQTAX over AHLPX. Volatility is not as an important a metric to me as I subscribe to the axiom of a venerable, former M* who routinely reminded us, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth."
    Could/would you have time to compare/contrast these two funds, especially their holdings which are a wee bit above my pay grade, and state why you would/did select AHLPX over PQTAX.
    TIA and understand if not interested in responding.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    I have tried a number of different managed futures funds over the years, and find that AHLPX has the best track record. BLNDX has beaten it with about the same risk, but I assume that is because BLNDX can use equities.
    M* says BLNDX started in 1/2020 and lost 8% during Covid, beating other hedged equity funds like JHQAX and GATEX, as you might suspect. AHLPX made money that month, however.
    Another MFO hedging favorite CTFAX also lost 9%
    Lots of different ways to hedge the downside, but it is hard to predict in advance which one will be most effective.