Boy is valuation expansion a great phrase: no more punchbowl, greater fool, froth, bubble, overbought ... 4th-highest SP500 p/ ever and 2nd-highest Shiller. Party on.

As for me,,, I couldn’t imagine doing a 50/50 portfolio and planning on 4% withdrawals.

At Hank. “Adjusting portfolio to age” would be a great thread. As always it’s very personal. I have a close friend who has a chronic illness, is in an assisted living facility , is running out of money and claims to be 95% equity. Cognitive decline? Anyway that would be a very interesting discussion with lots of opinions.

Over at M* Larry Swedroe looks at AQR research.
I'll cut to some factoids he mentions:

For the 35-year history ended December 2024, they found that US equities outperformed non-US developed markets by 4.7% per year, with 3.8% attributed to relative valuation expansion, 1.1% to real EPS growth, negative 0.6% to dividend yield differential, and negative 0.3% to real interest rate differential.

They found that to justify current valuations, US equities would need 2.2% higher annual real earnings growth than non-US peers over the next decade—well above the historical 0.3% edge.

From the end of 2008 through 2024, the US dollar rose in value relative to the euro from 0.72 to 0.92, an increase of almost 29%.

Well, what's it all about? I suppose it depends on your feelings about recency bias vs. mean reversion. After all, US indexes are setting records ain't they?

Federal Reserve’s Waller says central bank should cut rates at next meeting
”A top Federal Reserve official said late Thursday that the central bank should cut its key interest rate later this month, carving out a different view than that of Chair Jerome Powell, who has been harshly criticized by the White House for delaying rate cuts.”
”Waller, a Trump appointee, has previously said that he would support a rate cut in July. Michelle Bowman, also a Trump appointee, has also spoken in favor of a cut. Minutes to the Fed’s June 17-18 meeting said that only “a couple” of the 19 members of the central bank’s interest-rate setting committee supported a cut in July.”
Suppose it’s happened before, but I can’t ever recall a member of the FOMC speaking out vociferously like this against the prevailing committee sentiment and (presumably) the position of the current Chair.

Well, he's one of the folks auditioning for the top job over there, so he's gotta appeal to the desires of Emperor Hirocheeto in his public remarks...

Anyone bought Capital Group International Core Equity ETF CGIC?
This is from Morningstar,
“The Best International-Stock Funds” by Tori Brovet
Jun 16, 2025
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/best-international-stock-funds

WABAC,
Ben states that research proves that you should be fully invested, use index funds and asset allocation to match risk profile. Of course I don’t listen to that after getting burned 45%, 50%, 25% in 2000, 2008, 2020, etc.

I've been known to post things to bump the conversation along. :) Plus, you find out who reads the links. ;)
Given the nature of his headline, I was surprised to read that he saw any virtue in dividends at all. But since he's Canadian, he has to deal with all the fans of their bank stocks.

WABAC,
Ben states that research proves that you should be fully invested, use index funds and asset allocation to match risk profile. Of course I don’t listen to that after getting burned 45%, 50%, 25% in 2000, 2008, 2020, etc.

Federal Reserve’s Waller says central bank should cut rates at next meeting
”A top Federal Reserve official said late Thursday that the central bank should cut its key interest rate later this month, carving out a different view than that of Chair Jerome Powell, who has been harshly criticized by the White House for delaying rate cuts.”
”Waller, a Trump appointee, has previously said that he would support a rate cut in July. Michelle Bowman, also a Trump appointee, has also spoken in favor of a cut. Minutes to the Fed’s June 17-18 meeting said that only “a couple” of the 19 members of the central bank’s interest-rate setting committee supported a cut in July.”
Suppose it’s happened before, but I can’t ever recall a member of the FOMC speaking out vociferously like this against the prevailing committee sentiment and (presumably) the position of the current Chair.

@DrVenture. These funds have certainly held up the past few years. Since January 2022, beginning of the current Great Normalization market cycle, all returned about 6% annually despite drawdowns in 2022 from -3% to -6%. Since COVID in January 2020, most returned about 5% annually, but incurred drawdowns of -11% to -15%.
I expect Junkster (and FD1000), however, would exit once any of these rolled more than a percent or so, if that.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1527428/000158064225004322/arrowdwatintletf497.htm
497 1 arrowdwatintletf497.htm 497
ARROW DWA TACTICAL: INTERNATIONAL ETF FUND
TICKER: DWCR
A series of Arrow Investments Trust
Shares of the Fund are listed and traded on CBOE BZX Exchange
Supplement dated July 17, 2025, to the
Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”) each dated December 1, 2024
The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Arrow Investments Trust (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of shareholders to liquidate the Arrow DWA Tactical: International ETF (the "Fund"), a series of the Trust, following a recommendation by the Fund's investment adviser, Arrow Investment Advisors, LLC, and the Board has authorized an orderly liquidation of the Fund.
The last day of trading of the Fund’s shares on CBOE BZX Exchange, Inc. (the “Exchange”) will be July 28, 2025 (the “Closing Date”), which will also be the last day the Fund will accept creation units from authorized participants. Shareholders should be aware that while the Fund is preparing to liquidate, it will not be pursuing its stated investment objective or engaging in any business activities except for the purposes of winding up its business and affairs, preserving the value of assets, paying its liabilities, and distributing its remaining assets to shareholders. Shareholders may sell their holdings in the Fund prior to the Closing Date and customary brokerage charges may apply to these transactions. Authorized Participants may redeem baskets of shares for a pro rata portion of the Fund’s portfolio on hand through the Closing Date.
The Fund is expected to cease operations, liquidate its assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders on or about July 30, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). From the Closing Date through the Liquidation Date, shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Fund’s shares during this time period.
Shareholders remaining on the Liquidation Date will receive cash at the net asset value of their shares as of that date, which will include any capital gains and dividends as of such date. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of the Fund’s shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders may wish to consult with their tax adviser about their particular situation. Once the distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
For additional information regarding the liquidation, shareholders of the Fund may call (877) 277-6933.
______________________________________________________________________
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI each dated December 1, 2024 and should be read in conjunction with those documents. The Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI have each been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated by reference. Copies of these documents may be obtained without charge by visiting Fund’s website at www.ArrowFunds.com or by calling the Fund at (877) 277-6933.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500604/000139834425013268/fp0094263-1_497.htm
497 1 fp0094263-1_497.htm 497
Janus Detroit Street Trust
Janus Henderson U.S. Sustainable Equity ETF
Supplement dated July 17, 2025
to Currently Effective Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
The Board of Trustees of Janus Detroit Street Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate and terminate Janus Henderson U.S. Sustainable Equity ETF (the “Fund”), effective on or about October 14, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). After the close of business on or about October 9, 2025, the Fund will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Fund will be halted prior to market open on or about October 10, 2025. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to shareholders on or about October 16, 2025. Termination of the Fund is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the liquidation.
Prior to and through the close of trading on NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE”) on October 9, 2025, the Fund will undertake the process of winding down and liquidating its portfolio. This process may result in the Fund holding cash and securities that may not be consistent with its investment objective and strategies. Furthermore, during the time between market open on October 10, 2025 and the Liquidation Date, because the shares will no longer be traded on NYSE, there may not be a trading market for the Fund’s shares.
Shareholders may sell shares of the Fund on NYSE until the market close on October 9, 2025 and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Shares held as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed for cash at the then current net asset value. Proceeds of the redemption will be paid through the broker-dealer with whom you hold shares of the Fund. Shareholders will generally recognize a capital gain or loss on the redemptions. The Fund may or may not, depending upon its circumstances, pay one or more dividends or other distributions prior to or along with the redemption payments. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
Please retain this Supplement with your records.

The markets want to go up, and even Orange can't stop it. And he isn't going to fire Powell, its a diversion to distract from the Epstein files.
TACO boy is very adept at redirects.
And for every 50 bps that the market inches up, BS1000 will take some kind of warped victory lap.....even though the skeleton of Biden would have had us at higher levels.

"Stocks Drop on Report Powell Likely to Be Fired"
Reality. The SP500 made another 1% since the above.
The SP500 is at high for the year.

CA unemployment was down from 5.5% on 12/2024 to 5.3% for 05/2025.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CAUR

I'll provide this for now; as we have a 9 yo nephew bday party that can not be missed.
A new French mural. There is an arrow on the right edge to step through the images. OR select the red arrow at the left bottom for audio/video and wait for a short AD to play.

pbs (july 2025) interviewed an idaho farmer pleading to exempt his undocumented workers as raids affecting his farm economics. claimed these workers as "friends" he and his children had attended school with, but had no comment on the absolute brutality and illegal herding of workers nationwide.
remained unrepentant trump supporter (he actually bought into the farm\hotel pause trump promised) , but wished democrats could 'meet in the middle' to solve this issue.
cant fix stupid.

AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/16/25
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (39.3%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (21.8%, very low*); bearish remained the middle sentiment (39.0%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +0.3% (below average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (177+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+16 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed, bonds down, oil down, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 68.75% (positive). CPI +2.7%, core +2.9%; PPI +2.3%, core +2.6%. Crypto Week bills are moving in Congress. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2094/thread

Wow. Crazy. Can count about a half-dozen harrowing experiences in my long life that could / should have ended it. Escaped thus far. Was not aware of the shock hazard. Did a lot of foolish stuff with electricity as a kid but never tried replacing a tube. I do have a large bug zapper that even unplugged for several minutes retains quite a charge as I’ve learned the hard way. Suspect vacuum tubes may also be that way.
OMG - They make bug zappers too! See Ad