S&P is down over 16% as of Sept 2nd, will it reach a break even point by year end?

@Catch22

“[Red Notice] does for investing in Russia and the former Soviet Union what Liar’s Poker did for our understanding of Salomon Brothers, Wall Street, and the mortgage-backed securities business in the 1980s. Browder’s business saga meshes well with the story of corruption and murder in Vladimir Putin’s Russia, making Red Notice an early candidate for any list of the year’s best books” (Fortune).

and

Following his explosive New York Times bestseller Red Notice, Bill Browder returns with another gripping thriller chronicling how he became Vladimir Putin’s number one enemy by exposing Putin’s campaign to steal and launder hundreds of billions of dollars and kill anyone who stands in his way.

A Deeper Interview:

billbrowder.com/

Energy markets are reacting differently to several news items today - proposed European caps on natural gas prices and futures trading (expected), Russian stoppage of natural gas flows into Nord Stream 1 pipeline, small OPEC production cut of 100K barrels/day (unexpected).
https://www.cmegroup.com/

Adding to @orage comment on The Shadow’s Sept’s Commentary:

A whole series of Direxion ETFs, some modestly silly and others just very badly out-of-step with the market, hence unattractive to fickle investors, will be liquidated on September 23, 2022.
Direxion Daily Cloud Computing Bear 2X Shares (CLDS)
Direxion Daily 5G Communications Bull 2X Shares (TENG)
Direxion Russell 1000® Growth Over Value ETF (RWGV)
Direxion Russell 1000® Value Over Growth ETF (RWVG)
Direxion World Without Waste ETF (WWOW)
Direxion Fallen Knives ETF (NIFE)
Direxion Low Priced Stock ETF (LOPX)

This week's episode from YouTube:

From Bloomberg site:
https://www.bloomberg.com/btv/series/wall-street-week

RPIEX. 69% cash. Ta-gooch?????????

This was discussed in another thread. High derivative exposure explains high cash position. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152561/#Comment_152561

Global bond manager Jack McIntyre says central banks around the world are determined to stamp out inflation. Their success will determine the direction of markets and economies. He explains how he is investing for several outcomes.

Investments During a Period of Stagflation:

Stagflation is a period of economic stagnation combined with high inflation. When the economy stagnates, growth slows and unemployment rises. Demand for goods and services may decline as income levels drop. That in itself is bad enough but high inflation compounds the problem, as the income that people do have doesn’t go as far since prices are higher.

https://smartasset.com/investing/how-to-invest-during-stagflation
For a Global Bond choices, RPIEX, looks interesting
MFO Discussion Linked here:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152569/#Comment_152569

@hank @Old_Joe
Often no one notices the work we do...accepts the kids and sometimes the outside world.
Thank you for making a difference... much like my colleague whose life was cut short by COVID... Love you Tom...RIP... You made a difference in so many lives.
A Connecticut Story

Yeah - That right leaning “straight-from-FAUX” crap doesn’t deserve a reply.
To attribute what’s left of ARKK’s prior valuation to still gullible investors and / or shoddy accounting at this point in the game is to ascribe to those who initially ran up the valuation of these companies to their 2021 peak a degree of stupidity that I’m unable to comprehend. These are by definition highly speculative companies. But, trading at little more than 30% of what they were assessed at only a year ago, I think they are worth looking at on a relative value basis (ie compared to the broader market). But, perhaps Grantham is correct that the entire U.S. market is but a shaky house of cards. In that case, God help us.
And Heaven forbid that BBF is correct that retired public servants like @Old_Joe and myself are the underlying cause of all that ails the nation. In that case, all hope is lost.

Hi sir that is the 400billions dollars questions and so hard to answer
I Have lots time left +17yrs
Likely holding patterns for me for now for 6 8 wks??!!. No buys now... Hold everything
See how it goes next 4 6 wks... Maybe more pains more downturns fed trying kill tame inflation.... Likely more downswing
Friends say reach critical support levels ... Unclear if levels break next wk, if it does expect another 10-20% drop/next leg
Regardless I think in 24 months expect ?! +12-20% returns from these levels
Maybe too late to sale now for me so holding patterns and not sure when will bounce...
Should sold 2 wks ago but back then all pundits say breadth of stocks back and expect more up swings (unril uncle Powell killed the golden goose at Jackson hole speech) Think if feds slow down in 8-16 wks market will rebound (slow QT easing and slower rate cutdowns) ..
Lots small caps tech arkk severely low near bottoms but how far beyond will go/will drop nobody know... Add more techs tna in 8 wks?

ouch
https://materials.proxyvote.com/Approved/MC3609/20220826/SUP_515436.PDF
(probably already posted; could not find)
Lost about a quarter on RWGV, which I believe, could be mistaken, was well-ranked on MFOP once upon a time in the alt world
hold till end or sell Tuesday morning?

@Hank, so this is an extreme example of the absolute kookiness that has taken place over the past few years with the fed's balance sheet expanding by 10x over the past dozen or so years. Social media, media assisted in driving the sheeple to lose their money in this Schmuddel. I can see this fund getting cut in half once again from here. Who knows?
So ryhmed with the late 90's, no? Next generation of investors/sheeple done learnt their lesson, maybe?
So...question for the class...let's talke about GAAP accounting or maybe better said the lack of it pertaining to most/many tech companies.
Do they or do they not pay many of their assocatiates with stock...what about intangibles...is that on the balance sheet? What happens to their "earnings" if you put those "true" expenses back on there? Aren't some of those companies another farce similar to ARKK...Can some CPA/Finance expert explain Salesforce, CRM, the rollup of over 60 companies to me and what is really going on there. I have no idea but am wondering, asking for a friend? Compare it to MSFT who DOES report using GAAP, I beleive.
And now those of us who don't suckle of the teet of the public tax payer with a pension have to fund our retirement in this piece of sheet casino?
Baseball Fan

(They say that market bubbles can only be identified after they have popped ….)
ARKK is currently down 67.5% over 1 one-year according to CNBC. It’s off 56% YTD and about $5.00 above where it bottomed earlier in the year. This isn’t to rag on the fund and manager. But just to lend support to the idea that there certainly appears to have been a genuine “bubble” in this sector of the market.
What I’m unable to fully understand are the specific factors contributing to its continuing descent. I believe short sellers have a heavy hand here. And investors are discounting future Fed rate increases plus anticipation of a recession in their valuation of the sector. Since TSLA is its largest holding, investors to an extent may be discounting Elon Musk - a dangerous bet IMHO. @bee mentions in another thread how higher interest rates impact speculative equities hardest. Posted for whatever thoughts or insights it might inspire..
Disclosure: Am holding a very small amount of ARKK as a long-term speculative play. Off 6-7% since averaging in.

Another take on Tech and whether the bottom is in...not so fast:
‘more pain to come’ for the tech sector

Higher rates make growth-oriented companies’ future earnings less attractive. Tech companies, especially those backed by venture capital, tend to prioritize growth over short-term profitability.
“When those companies really start getting down to answering the investor question, the path to profitability, they’re not going to love what they see,” said Bravo.

orlando-bravo-warns-theres-more-pain-to-come-for-the-tech-sector

Today's action is algos at work - both ways - I would not read too much into it.

+1
Lots of moving parts.

I'm stepping out of bounds a bit, relative to the investing aspect of the post.
Kinda tangent........meaning the twisted thinking and actions coming from Russia, affecting markets and other.
Lukoil Chairman, dies after 'falling' from 6th floor hospital window
Note: the Chairman criticized the Ukraine invasion. You'll read about his 'cause' of death in the short write.

Right sir sorry thought you collect over 5k lol
Wonder why they charge > 5k extra for inflation issues...
Sometimes maybe better to get corp bonds least they give you ytm and final costs/ expected returns info /extra fees - no gimmicks.... Just need keep track (worries) that corp bonds do not file title 7 or 11 before maturity year.
Once things more stabilize if find more good corp bonds/start buy more will pm you.
I may call schwab or vanguard bonds desks they usually give lots info Tues or weds if have time

tuhyx. junk bonds. down -13.71 ytd.
premx. em. down -19.95
fnmix em. down -17.31
agepx frontier mkt. bonds. down -14.46
yup. i own tuhyx, not the others.

Well, $207 per day would be great, but since we're talking about $1911 return over 135 days, unfortunately that's only about $14 per day, right?

+1.