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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    I'm inclined to agree with @Baseball_Fan that multi-strategy funds are generally a bunch of spaghetti.
    Even if one does understand how each alternative strategy tends to work in isolation and even if one does understand how they interact, IMHO two wildly optimistic assumptions, one still does not have any sense of how they are being allocated/used. A fund saying that it "seeks to provide total return ... in both periods of strong returns and periods of market stress" tells me almost nothing about how it uses those alternative strategies.
    More studying of a fund may not make it any clearer. M* gave DBLTX a "not rated" mark for two years (2014-2016) because "when ... evaluating sophisticated bond strategies like DoubleLine Total Return Bond, publicly available information often does not suffice."
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/759331/why-were-moving-doubleline-total-return-bond-funds-rating-to-neutral
    Yet for most of us peons, public info is all we have to work with. And it's hard to deny that funds like BAMBX are employing sophisticated strategies, bond and other. FWIW, M* decided to change the rating of DBLTX from "not rated" to "neutral" because M* felt it was more informative to say that based on what they knew they could not recommend the fund ("neutral") than to say nothing.
    With respect to the BAMBX's portfolio, Lipper is showing net allocations. According to M*, the fund is comprised of 65% short positions and 165% long, which adds up to 100% of the portfolio, net. A lot of shorting going on.
    At a superficial level (i.e. just looking at the 165/65 figure), this looks like the 130/30 funds of a decade ago on steroids. Except that for BAMBX that's just a summary of its holdings and not its strategy. Here's a M* piece on the 130/30 funds of yesteryear, and the risks they carried.
    https://www.morningstar.com/articles/287718/article
    TMSRX is net 48% long in fixed income and net 6% short in equity, both of which should have helped its performance Friday, yet it dropped ½%. It's not so easy to figure out what these sorts of funds are doing. Even less so for BAMFX with a 500% turnover rate.
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Not everything was down Friday. DKNG, which has stunk up the joint for several months, sliding from mid-$50s to under $35, gained +1.29% yesterday - bucking the trend.
    I’ve long since ditched their stock, but with collegiate basketball and NBA in full swing … am using them for another purpose. :)
  • Barron's
    @hank,
    This past Friday was ugly. Mining stocks including NGLOY took quite a hit. GOLD took a dive too.
    In next several weeks we will learn more on test results on "Omicron". There was flash of fear reflecting the consequences of February 2020 when the pandemic started. Two possible scenarios: (1) Omicron is no worse than the Delta variant and there is no significant reduction on the vaccine's efficiency, and (2) Omicron turns out to evades all vaccines and the spread cannot be readily contained unless lockdown is being imposed. If scenario #1 plays out, there is already restricted travel imposed on African countries to EU and US and the spread is NOT widespread. Also there are advanced made with Merck's and Pfizer's antiviral drugs for treatment. Scenario #2 can be quite damaging to the world since there is no vaccine solutions (and it will take at least a year to develop and manufacturing new vaccine for the world population).
    To complicate the matter, the inflation, the timeline of Fed tapering, and rising rates are all taken place concurrently. COVID risk was reduced this year with vaccination, but now it is placed on top of everything else.
  • Blackrock Systematic Multi Strategy Fund (BAMBX)
    (Lipper* generally quotes from the manager’s description):
    “The Fund seeks total return comprised of current income and capital appreciation. BlackRock will invest the Funds assets through a diversified set of strategies that seek to provide total return comprised of current income and capital appreciation in both periods of strong returns and periods of market stress.”
    77% in bonds likely reason the fund was up a bit yesterday. Longer dated high quality bonds were up sharply.
    Since the asset breakdown on Lipper adds up to 100%, it’s unlikely they’re doing much (if any) shorting - which generally skews the total to something over 100.
    I tend to like Blackrock. Rock Rieder, one of their fixed income people, talks a good game. Bright and articulate.
    No fund is a “spaghetti bowl” if one is willing to invest the time and energy into exploring the contents. In the case of TMSRX I’ve not done the due diligence I probably should have, trusting in TRP whom I’ve been with for about 30 years to run that complex fund on the straight and narrow and not put my money at excessive risk. But that’s laziness on my part - not dereliction on theirs.
    @Baseball_Fan - Could you share a little about your current investment approach? What do you like in addition to near 0% cash? I recall about 6-7 months ago you were buying Home Depot and also looking for inflation hedges. The problem with those inflation hedges is that a lot of other people caught the scent in the wind 6 months ago and chased. It’s a diverse lot. Some areas (certain industrial metals) are doing fine and may not be overpriced. But it’s a rough playing field as evidenced by the more than 6% drop in oil yesterday.
    *Link to BAMBX Lipper profile: http://www.funds.reuters.wallst.com/US/funds/overview.asp?YYY622_6m0GgCfSF7IkKdT1pfwHShuZTH3KwZb8EX/lL+8rQLcR/QKIWm+VprdhsazlKneG
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    bambx was my only positive fund. up for the day .19% up .48% for the week.
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    +1 hank I'll add SWAN, in a small position, to my etf toolbox, which includes JEPI SCHD and ESGV .
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Appreciate all the discussion above. I’m trying here to achieve a higher degree of accuracy than my preceding comments represented. SWAN is the type of ETF “futures investment” I was referencing - though the terminology I used wasn’t very accurate.
    Here’s a description of that strategy:
    “The BlackSwan ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the S-Network BlackSwan Core Index (the Index). The Index’s investment strategy seeks uncapped exposure to the S&P 500, while buffering against the possibility of significant losses. Approximately 90% of the ETF will be invested in U.S. Treasury securities, while approximately 10% will be invested in SPY LEAP Options in the form of in-the-money calls.”
    SOURCE
    It’s those “LEAP Options” that represent a levered bet (with a small amount of money down) that the S&P will be worth more in the future when the option closes. If it isn’t higher at that date, than the money paid for the option is wasted. But they figure that in that case their 90% weighting in Treasury bonds will profit from “flight to quality” and compensate them for the losses on the call options.
    I hope this is 75% correct. It’s a bit complicated to me. While “defensive” in nature (compared to putting 100% of your money into stocks) it’s also net-net a “bullish” market call. Some sources I follow have been pointing out for quite a while that there’s an unusually large amount of money being invested in these types of vehicles - enough that they may not be a timely / prudent investment at present. And, possibly, they may add to any downside market volatility.
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Portfolio down 1.01 % for the day , but 3 or 4 NA to report in.
    Try to have a good weekend, Derf
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Don’t know what REMIX is about - but a number of financial outlets, including Barron’s, have commented lately that the futures markets were overextended. While futures contracts can be used to hedge risk, they also represent a bullish bet from what I’ve been able to read. A lot of funds using futures got hit today. TAIL (which I own) which hedges with puts (seen as more bearish) did OK. Of course, all these gimmick funds are risky longer term.
    The inflation hedges, like miners, were whacked hard today. In the oil sector, both NYMEX & BRENT were down over 6%. Not much was spared that I can see. Real Estate & Utilities both hit hard - even as interest rates fell.
    Cheer up. I believe this underperformance on the inflation hedges to be only “transitory.” :)
    -
    For the benefit of mfo members, here’s how some hedge-type funds on my watch list performed today:
    SWAN -0.28%
    HEGD -1.83%
    DOG +2.47%
    NUSI -1.25%
    DRSK +0.14%
    SPDN +2.26%
    FTLS -1.84%
    DFND -0.10%
    TAIL (owned) +2.80%
    A couple mutual funds that are more broadly diversified than the above, but which employ some hedging techniques:
    HSGFX +2.44%
    TMSRX (owned) -0.47%
  • REMIX lost -5% today
    Yes-I'm glad I only have $1,000 invested in that fund. The 90 day clock(holding period) is running for me on this fund, unless they decide to emulate IOFIX and I have to pay the hostage fee to get out sooner !
  • Barron's
    (November 24) “Today I sold one, NGLOY, after a quick 14% run-up since they recommended it roughly 2 months ago. Still like it - but have been trimming risk wherever I can of late.”
    NGLOY lost 7.54% today.
    Edit 11/27 (To be completely honest here) I moved the proceeds from NGLOY into an existing holding, GLFOX. It lost about 2.4% yesterday - so am only two thirds as smart (or lucky) as might at first appear. :)
  • Old_Skeet's November 2021 Market Briefings
    Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Investment Insights Section ... for posting on the MFO Board.
    This briefing is for the week ending November 26, 2021.
    The Index Review
    For the week the major equity indices finished down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -2.71%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index declined -2.34%, the Nasdaq Composite retreated -3.14% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -4.98%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were utilities -0.24%, consumer defensive -0.48%, and health care -1.35%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.29% and is up year to date 22.33%; but off its 52 week high by -3.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.82% and for the week and lost -0.46%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -2.26% and is off its 52 week high by -3.32%.
    Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were EWZ (Brazil) +0.79%, SPY (US S&P 500) -2.29%, and QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) -1.95%.
    Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +2.53%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.72% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.25%.
    Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +6.54%, DBA (Agriculture) -0.25% and GLD (Gold) -4.08%.
    Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were REMX (Rare Earth Metals) +3.75%, SLX (Steel) +0.60% and LIT (Global Lithium) -0.93%.
    Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were FXY (Japanese Yen) +1.05%, UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.59%, and FXF (Swiss Frank) +0.24%.
    A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: Currently, Old_Skeet is a little underweight fixed income due to anticipated rising interest rates and a little overweight equity due to a seasonal stock trend via a special investment position (spiff). In the fall I generally increase my equity weighting and towards the end of spring I trim, or close, my special investment position. As I write, the equity spiff that I opened back in September, during a stock market dip, is up 3.42%.
    Articles of Investment Interest
    Wall St Week Ahead COVID-19 Fears Reappear As a Threat to Market
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/wall-st-week-ahead-covid-19-fears-reappear-threat-market-2021-11-26/
    Best Money Market Mutual Funds Of 2021
    https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/the-best-money-market-mutual-funds/
    Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links
    Stock Proxy S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY)
    Short Volume SPY ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
    Breadth Reading SPY ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
    SPY Price Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
    T/A Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
    Bond Proxy Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG)
    Short Volume AGG ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/AGG
    Yield Charting AGG ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=!YLDSPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75520805591
    AGG Price Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p07044822535
    T/A Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion
    Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    @bee - Thanks.
    Obviously something is screwed up there. Note that for 1 year the fund ranks 25th among its peer group, while for 3 years it ranks much better - 7th. So I’ll guess they haven’t updated their numbers on the chart you pasted to reflect the current year’s lackluster performance.
    However, if the fund’s potential “worst case” downside really is 65% as they claim, I’d suggest not buying it. Such a disastrous year would leave only 35% of the fund’ value remaining. Seems to me like you’d have to earn nearly 200% on that meager sum to get back to break-even the following year.
    -
    Added - I didn’t intend to recommend Ferris’ site. It’s just one of several I click on from time to time for a wide variety of views. Morningstar and Lipper are also helpful for broad overviews. For specific fund holdings and year-to year-performance it’s hard to top Yahoo. I buy very few new funds. Usually put candidates on a watch list and monitor for at least a few months before buying. MaxFunds seems to be the most critical in its assessments - for whatever reason.
  • Fixed income outlook from Schwab
    I established a partial position in PDI near the close today. The rest may be on/before Dec 10.
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    @hank, thanks for the link to MaxFunds. There seems to be some inconsisitency. The site reports POAGX as a long time wiiner with an 86/100
    image
    But when you click on the link it reports the fund as "Poor", linked here:
    maxfunds.com/funds/data.php?ticker=POAGX&pg=d
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    One of my go-to sites, MaxFunds, scores TMSRX somewhat favorably, giving it the lowest possible risk assessment of 1. Yet, curiously, it grades the fund as one of the worst (5) on its “Hot Money Index.” Pray tell me why a lame low volatility fund like this would be seeing huge investor flows in and out?
    Overall assessment = “Good” (73/100)
  • Time to sell TMSRX
    New Covid variant detected in S. Africa, so futures are down. US stock exchanges close early (1PM ET) tomorrow.
    I sold my TMSRX a while back. I think there is such a thing as "momentum" with some of these mutual funds - as if they suddenly lose their mojo, and you don't know if/when it will come back.