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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 9/20/25
    Several related articles prompted a return of this ad-hoc series only after a week.
    LINK1 LINK2
    UP & DOWN WALL STREET. Investment-grade CORPORATES (US & foreign) are now seen safer than respective sovereign debts. Global deficits, spending and debt servicing are rising. The assumption of risk-free Treasuries when US continues to print money is becoming shaky. Corporate spreads are tight because the baseline Treasury yields are rising, and corporate yields are lower due to high demand. MSFT AAA 10-yr yield (the only other genuine AAA is JNJ; ignoring tons of artificial AAA securitized credits) is now below 10-yr Treasuries. Some French corporates also have yields below French sovereigns. This phenomenon of negative spreads will become more commonplace. Many corporations are taking advantage of low spreads to issue new debt. US Aggregate Bond Index (AGG, BND; the so-called US total bond market although it’s only investment-grade) has 50%+ Treasuries (vs 21% in 2007). Just as SP500 has become concentrated in Magnificent 7, the (so-called) US total bond market has become concentrated in Treasuries. Options for low/no Treasuries include (true) total bond market (IUSB), corporates (LQD), etc. Central banks have also diversified and now hold more gold than Treasuries.
    STREETWISE. QUARTERLY or SEMIANNUAL reporting? It won’t matter if that’s made optional and then the market decides. Formal reporting requirement goes back to 1934 (regulators want to do something after a major crash) and quarterly reporting has been required since 1970 (there was a minor market hiccup then, but did that stop the big dot. com bubble and crash?). So, now there are 3 unaudited 10-Qs and 1 audited 10-K; companies can delay them with permission. President TRUMP made a similar proposal in 2018, but SEC then did nothing beyond holding public hearings – this time may be different (agency heads have rolled for lesser offenses).
    Nasdaq is favoring semiannual reporting citing savings. Of course, private-equity/credit saves LOT of money by infrequent or no reporting, and did you hear that it may be going into your 401k? US companies spend 37% on R&D vs only 17% for European companies – will that change by reporting frequency? In Europe, 50% of companies report quarterly, 50% semiannually, so what? Most people may instinctively react negatively to reduced investor information, but how many really dig through 10-Qs and 10-Ks? Reg FD forbids sharing of nonpublic information with selected groups, but some of that goes on and more of that may happen with infrequent reporting. Analysts would still be far off the marks as they are in their annual estimates, sometimes revised several times during the year. A study by Brown U suggested a split system – large companies reporting quarterly, small companies reporting semiannually. Journalist/humorist HOUGH recommends that the best would be no reporting at all, let companies save lot of money and let FOMO and mojo rule (-:)
  • OEF To ETF Conversions
    "Since 2021, 145 mutual funds have converted to ETFs, yet there are trade-offs.
    Most institutional retirement plans aren’t set up to allow ETF trading,
    so mutual funds that are offered in 401(k) plans can’t easily convert.
    Moreover, although there are certain 'semitransparent' ETF structures that allow active managers
    to conceal their portfolios, investors prefer full transparency.
    That means showing one’s investment cards every day."

    "Unlike mutual funds, ETFs can’t close to new investors—even if managers invest
    in illiquid securities and have limited capacity.
    For this reason, some ETF conversions appear problematic."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/your-mutual-fund-is-becoming-an-etf-what-to-expect/ar-AA1MN4Yc
  • QLENX and QMNNX are NOT closing to new investors on June 30
    You're welcome, no problem. Your original note about the Fusion Funds is 2025 vintage, tho. Even more AQR funds now ...
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Been transitioning from a sizable slug in BAMBX to a 50/50 blend of AGZD and IGHG. Figure if I want to ”tread water” may as well do it for an ER of .27% rather than 1.2%. Like @rforno, I’m doing some hedging. Not for tax purposes, but just to mitigate downside. Small ongoing allocations to TAIL & SPDN (2% each).
  • Our disappearance, 18 September 2025
    Hi, guys.
    MFO went dark for most of the day on Thursday, 9/18. OJ sent both a heads up and some diagnostics. My best understanding is that we had a corrupt database (and here I thought corruption was the new normal) which took us down. Following OJ's prompt (and her workday) Chip attempted to reboot us then contacted our hosting service. Their answer had three pieces: 1. we can fix it, 2. it's tricky and might take a while, and 3. some of your content might be irretrievable.
    Chip pressed them a bit (it's the nice thing about having a high-ranking IT professional in the family: she snarls convincingly in tech-talk) and they finally got us back.
    I'm hopeful that folks were not badly inconvenienced. We can't determine what it anything was lost but if there's a mystery blank space where an act of rhetorical brilliance once resided ...
    - - - - -
    A note on our discussion board applicants: it appears that six applicants in the waiting room are bots, three of them offering identical reasons for entry, two of them offering one-word reasons ("communicate") and one of them raising a red flag for Chip. If you have applied, or are thinking of applying, to contribute to the board, please try to say something fund-y like "I'm interested in WTF Gundlach is up to" or "fretting that my fund is converting to an ETF" or something that does not appear to be the same reason you used in applying to the crochet community, the bondage board or the developers' discussion group.
    Thanks!
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Watching this preferred offering with interest, new issue RITM-E will be 8.75% fixed rate. Currently trading with a temporary OTC ticker of RITMV.
    SEC link: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1556593/000114036125035419/ny20055726x3_fwp.htm
  • Hard Drives Make Comeback!
    AI has caught the attention of many investors.
    NVIDIA's returns in recent years have been spectacular—it's market cap is now over $4T!
    Who knew that companies marketing ordinary hard drives would catch fire?
    Chart courtesy of Spencer Jakab via his Markets A.M. newsletter.
    image
  • New SEC Standard Clears the Way for More Crypto ETPs
    A new SEC listing standard will allow quick approvals to list ETPs (Nasdaq, Cboe BZX & NYSE Arca) for commodities (including spot commodities) that have established futures trading. This may open a floodgate new crypto ETPs - only limited by the competitive marketplace.
    https://www.investopedia.com/sec-approves-standards-that-could-lead-to-a-flurry-of-new-crypto-etfs-11812612
    https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2025-121-sec-approves-generic-listing-standards-commodity-based-trust-shares
  • MFO Offline
    Trump and his minions were behind it, I just know it! It’s no coincidence that MFO going offline coincided with Jimmy Kimmel’s show being discontinued. And It also coincided with Trump’s puppet being the only Fed official calling for a 50 basis point cut in interest rates despite being on the job for just one day!
    On second thought, naaaw. Trump’s not that good. But it’s been fun to ponder!
  • Site issues most of the day today
    Trump and his minions were behind it, I just know it! It’s no coincidence that MFO going offline coincided with Jimmy Kimmel’s show being discontinued. And It also coincided with Trump’s puppet being the only Fed official calling for a 50 basis point cut in interest rates despite being on the job for just one day!
    On second thought, naaaw. Trump’s not that good. But it’s been fun to ponder!
  • Late day market update 9/18
    Yikes. I hope no one suffered financial loss owing to the hours long absence of mfo’s investment guidance Thursday. . If you’re on auto-pilot you’ll be glad to know the markets continued on their winning ways with several new records set today.
    Noteworthy - The Dow, S&P 500 & Russell 2000 all hit record highs on Thursday. The last time that occurred was Nov. 2021.
    After first falling, the 10-year treasury bond reversed direction and closed higher at 4.12%
    No. I don’t understand why most everything keeps going up. Some’s probably owing to the Fed’s actions & narrative yesterday. Did someone say bubble? Barron’s says small caps are taking off. Gundlach likes local currency EM debt. And Fleckenstein likes silver - though I wouldn’t touch the precious metals with a 10-foot pole at these levels. There was an important development in tech with Nvidia announcing a $5 Bil investment in Intel.
    Personally, my stuff doesn’t move much day-to-day or on days like this. About 25% equity. Lots of hedging. Slow Mo!
  • Site issues most of the day today
    Perhaps it’s been already noted, but the time stamp on posts is also off-kilter. Mine reads 8:05 PM as I edit, and it’s actually 11:52 PM. (EDT)
    Glad the board is back up.
  • Site issues most of the day today
    Evidently a problem developed with respect to the database which was in use. From information on the internet it can be inferred that WordPress is sensitive to this type of problem. One of the options for such a situation is to replace it from a backup which is known good. That would seem to be what has transpired today, using a backup from 9/13. I'm sure that when things have calmed down we will be advised of the details of the situation.
    Add: I now notice that the timestamp for this post bears no relation to the actual time of the post or the edit. The actual time of this edit is 19:51, PDST.
  • MFO Offline
    Evidently a problem developed with respect to the database which was in use. From information on the internet it can be inferred that WordPress is sensitive to this type of problem. One of the options for such a situation is to replace it from a backup which is known good. That would seem to be what has transpired today, using a backup from 9/13. I'm sure that when things have calmed down we will be advised of the details of the situation.
    Add: I now notice that the timestamp for this post bears no relation to the actual time of the post or the edit. The actual time of this edit is 19:50, PDST.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Giving some more thought to risk and needs ...
    Derivatives - in a sense, insurance policies are derivatives - they value depends on the state of the asset being insured. Insure a car against vandalism and the value of the car plus policy is constant (less deductible if the car is vandalized). The policy never adds risk. Just the cost of the insurance.
    Similarly, some derivatives act as pure insurance (reducing risk) and do not affect volatility. A put option on a security that has a strike price below the security price insures against the price declining below the strike price. Just as you pay a premium for your auto insurance, you pay a premium for your security's "price insurance".
    On the other hand, derivatives can also be used aggressively. I've been looking at CSHI - a 1-3 month Treasury ETF that uses an option kicker to enhance performance. It uses a short put spread on something totally unrelated - the S&P 500 index (SPX). It's a pure gamble - if the "market" (S&P 500) goes up or remains flat, the puts expire worthless and the fund pockets the difference between the premiums of the two puts (one sold, one purchased). If the market goes down, then it could lose some money, but that loss is limited by the put it owns.
    Seeking Alpha seems to like this ETF. At a superficial (numbers) level it looks like a tamer APDPX, returning half as much annually in exchange for 1/5 the volatility (std dev). Here's the Portfolio Visualizer comparison.
    A few observations:
    Numbers don't tell the whole story; it helps to dig below the surface as @dtconroe has been doing.
    Month-to-month figures can miss a lot (e.g. PV reports 0.0% max drawdown for CSHI). Right after the Seeking Alpha piece was written (March 2025), we had the intra-month April Liberation Day tariffs.
    APDPX -1.73% (April 2 - April 9)
    CSHI -1.52% (April 2 - April 8)
    CBLDX -0.93% (April 2 - April 11)
    BBBIX -0.45% (April 3 - April 11)
    RPHIX -0.31% (April 3 - April 9)
    Derivatives can be 100% safe or extremely risky depending at least as much on how they are used as on market conditions. FPNIX is a fine example of a fund that makes extensive use of derivatives but with an eye to minimizing risk.
    Different people have different needs - I looked at CSHI because I'm looking for where to put cash in a taxable account. Holding Treasuries wouldn't help (on taxes) in an IRA.
    Another observation on FPNIX - M* reports that the MBSs it invests in charge the underlying borrowers such low rates that they wouldn't refinance even if current mortgage rates drop. This allays some of my concerns about prepayment risk/negative convexity. Issue selection matters.
    M* just wrote up four ultrashort funds including BBBIX. Personally I like what it says about BBBIX being toward the risky end of ultrashort. I'm looking to extend beyond "ultra-safe" funds without taking on the risk of general bond funds (I have other funds for that). As always, YMMV.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (09/12/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing...
    00:00 Intro
    00:21 Topics
    00:37 Easy Money Is Back
    06:35 Ignoring Inflation
    11:48 Jobs Market at Inflection Point
    18:37 Easing Into a Mania
    25:11 Spending Like There's No Tomorrow
    29:50 Higher Real Wages, More Affordable Rents
    Video
    Blog
  • RA Cap-Weighted ETF RAUS
    What does this say when RA (the ultimate non-market-cap indexer with RAFI) comes out with a cap-weighted index & ETF RAUS?
    OK, there is a fundamental screen first & then cap-weighting. It's a way for enhanced market-cap indexing - screen(s) can be applied before or after.
    LinkedIn
    https://rafietfs.com/raus-etf/
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    Of course, HOSIX will not repeat last year performance.
    I traded APDPX less than 90 days and didn't pay the 2% fee at Schwab.

    Most of these funds have $49.95 TF.
    Do you have to pay or do you have special tier account?
    Do you have to pay? no.
    Do you have a special tier account? yes
    I posted several times before about how you can pay just $10.
    I have a few shares in all the funds I like.
    First day, I buy $15 in HOSIX. There is no commission because it's too small.
    On the same night, after 9 PM but before midnight, I enroll in (under the tab trade click on automated investing). Find HOSIX and click enroll = set up a buy for the next day. I use frequency=monthly. The commission is just $10. The max to buy is $999,999.
    You must have the cash, not MM, in the account to see the buy order the next morning around 8 AM.
    Don't forget to unenroll.
    ==============
    HOTIX=NO
    The 3-month chart shows that HOTIX is a lot more volatile than HOSIX and HOBIX.
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hotix/chart
    ==============
    BTW, I brought HOSIX into Schwab more than 2 years ago.
    I contacted the mutual fund directly and talked with the manager and his staff, and I told them I wanted to invest at least $1 million, but I can't at Schwab.
    They worked with me and Schwab, and I bought it at that time.
    This year I no longer held HOSIX.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 9/13/25
    This ad-hoc feature returns after a while.
    Link1 Link2
    TRADER. Small-caps (SCs) have been strong since early-August. Lower rates and higher earnings may make this rally sustainable.
    INTERNATIONAL TRADER. EM DEBT is attractive – EMB ($ denominated), LEMB (local currency), etc. US tariffs haven’t impacted the EM bonds much because (i) several countries with high US tariffs (China, Brazil, India, South Africa) export less than 3% of their GDP to US, (ii) countries with higher exports to US (Mexico, S Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia) may be able to lower their rates as the Fed lowers rates, (iii) uncertainties in the developed world have benefited the EMs. Tariffs would cause a global economic slowdown that would be bearish for stocks, but bullish for bonds. BB-rated EM sovereigns (Turkey, Guatemala, Paraguay, Serbia, Albania) are attractive. Risk is that credit spreads are also tight.
    OPTIONS. If you want to chase a rallying stock that got away, use options – combine call-spreads with selling puts. WMT is used as an example, but it can be used for AI highflyers, GDX, etc.
    There is more on GOLD in STREETWISE, Link1.
    BEARISH. Small-caps (R2000 may finally make a new high since 11/2021; fwd P/E 16.1 (low), but 33 (high) if only profitable companies are considered; this may just be a short covering rally; notwithstanding positives stated elsewhere – lower rates, higher earnings, lower taxes; balances bullish SC stories elsewhere in this issue).
    FUNDS. Brandon NELSON, manager of small-cap (SC) growth CTASX / CTSIX (ER 1.30% / 1.05%; no-load NTF at Fidelity and Schwab) says that SCs will benefit from lower rates and improving earnings. He keeps winners but prunes laggards quickly. He watches credit spreads for indications of slowing economy.
    RETIREMENT & WELL BEING. Retirees can still find decent income from corporates (IGSB, VCIT), core-plus bond funds (OAKCX / OANCX) and foreign bond funds (GOBAX / GOBIX, IBND).
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I guess someone needs to get their eyeglass prescription checked. I don't see anywhere in DrVenture's post where it talks about owning PDI from 2023 to whatever. Also preparing for rate cuts does not equate to owning the fund either.
    You are absolutely correct. Thank you, Mark. My total return on my portfolio in both 2023 & 2024 was +25% each year, on an 80/20 portfolio mix. Not feeling like I missed out on anything. Not then, not now. I take risk, when I feel that risk is appropriate. And less risk, when I feel that less risk is appropriate. As I stated, I am now at 58% equities. I may go lower.
    Yet, we are not here to talk about the past, are we? PDI has smashed the S&P in 2025. Timing is everything. I expect CEFs to do very well going forward, for some time, until they don't.
    I certainly do not recommend anything to anybody. Or feel the need to pass on platitudes about the S&P to seasoned investors. I might add that I believe the S&P makes a great place to start. Still, my individually selected stocks portion of my portfolio (10%) beat the S&P by a significant amount in 2023, 2024 & YTD 2025. That, and some select sector funds, is how I beat the S&P with an 80/20 allocation in most years.
    Back on topic, for those unwilling to be at a high level of equities (which is likely most here), there is probably going to be good opportunities in FI. Especially if someone is willing to take a little risk, at the right time. That is only my humble opinion. And subject to revision.