AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/11/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (43.3%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (25.0%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (31.7%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +11.6% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget deficit, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (146+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (61+ weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks mixed (growth up, cyclicals down), bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 58.21% (positive). With several ECB rate cuts ahead, the dollar should remain stronger for longer. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1767/thread

Interesting re Israeli AI firm. I guess the IDF wasn't using them Oct 7th?
I am always bemused bu the multiple attempts over the years to replace MDs and their diagnoses.
AI may very well be able to read X rays and EKGs better than humans, but if I had a dime for every time "something" about they way a patient looked or the tome of their voice prompted me to ask the question that made the diagnosis I would be very rich.
Patients want human beings taking care of them, not a machine. AI may eventually stop disasters with poorly trained RNNPs ( like the one after an online course and 500 hours of preceptor-ship sent a patient with a blood sugar of 600 home to die per Bloomberg's report) but that will not solve the issues in medicine today- too much corporate profit.
Will only make them worse

@FD1000 - everything you say makes sense, but the sheer volume of data that is capable of being managed by companies (of all sorts) is increasing exponentially. And, I have to imagine that in short order the types of data that do much of the heavy lifting in forecasting and prediction (i.e., account for 98% of the variance) will be settled upon. So, gaining access to that last 1.5-2% isn't going to move the needle much for many investors. Or maybe imperfect data can be overcome with a super-rich model (as Bayesian maven Gelman says "Big Data Need Big Model").
Now, I guess the counterpoint would be that if JPM, DE Shaw, GS, and kindred competitors spend gazillions of dollars shaving 1/1000000th of a nanosecond off a trade execution time, they might find a way to convert that 1.5% information edge into some real money. I don't know.
I guess I can just see a point where there are fewer meaningful asymmetries to leverage. I think Charly Munger or Tweedy Browne (or etc.) said at one point that you used to have pour through pages of out of date trade journals to get a sense of companies' profitabilities and obligations, but now that can be sifted through readily by computers and databases.
So, again, while I was never all-in on indexing, I'm guessing that this spells the end for large chunks of the biz, with only a few super brains-in-beakers types of firms like Shaw or Guggenheim or etc. I don't see how First Eagle or Harris Associates or Wellington or FPA or Osterweis or etc. last another five years.

Discover what the 'big thinkers' were thinking in 2023 to 'guide' you, the investor, for the 2024 investing year. ONLY 4 minutes of your time. The whole video program is worth watching, but you may start just past the 5 minute mark, named PRICE TARGETS, for the good stuff.
ENJOY

The theory is that if AI figures out that NFLX is a great company, it will generate buys for many people.
Since the stock market movements are random, AI will not guess them properly.
As someone who worked in IT over 35 years. We used to say garbage in, garbage out. That means you got to feed it the right data.
What is the right data? That is what everybody looks for. Companies with the best analysts are still looking for it.
Final found it and why it's mostly unknown. (https://blog.grainstonelee.com/insight/who-is-final-israel)

For those interested in specific fund company distributions, that M* article has
Select Fund Company Distribution Projections
Unfortunately, it does not include the projected dates of distribution in case someone wants to sell before the ex-date.
Our own Shadow has the related pinned thread at https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/62752/2024-capital-gains-distribution-estimates-updated-vanguard-posted#latest
I do not own any mutual funds in my taxable account(s).

Per M*
Top 50 Capital Gains Distribution Estimates

Due to the Rule of 4/9, any of the 5 remaining Supremes can complain why they took some case? But such complaints are unusual.
"According to these rules, four of the nine Justices must vote to accept a case. Five of the nine Justices must vote in order to grant a stay, e.g., a stay of execution in a death penalty case. Under certain instances, one Justice may grant a stay pending review by the entire Court."
https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/educational-resources/about-educational-outreach/activity-resources/supreme-1

My daughter transferred some money from her bank to her brokerage account the other day. The stupid bank sent her a text with a link to confirm. She asked my opinion--Dad is still good for some things :) --and I told her to call the number on the back of her bank card.

Yikes! I would change banks....that is like 2005-era 'security' that EASILY could be faked by a baddie....

While McAfee name has lingered, late John McAfee (1945-2021; died by suicide in a Spanish prison) wasn't involved after 1994 - almost 30 years ago. Its owners since have been Network Associates, Intel/INTC, for a short while MCFE was listed on Nasdaq but was eventually delisted, and is now owned by Advent International, a private-equity firm.
John McAfee was indeed a colorful guy and he often expressed frustration on why his name was still being used in a product that he was no longer associated with. Apparently, he didn't protect the rights to use his name, and companies owning McAfee may have thought that any publicity (good, bad, weird) was good publicity - they could tell people in private that the product McAfee had nothing to do with that wild and crazy guy (apologies to Steve Martin).

"...Nvidia’s suit, brought by Swedish investment firm Ohman J:or Fonder, centers on allegations that company executives, including CEO Jensen Huang, misled investors about the extent its sales depended on volatile cryptocurrency miners...."
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/5034515-supreme-court-nvidia-case-dismissed/

From my wee brain. A lot of 'Never Never Land' I do believe in our future. Hopefully, we'll be able to maintain our 40% equity/60% bond-MM positions properly.
I offer two quick area thoughts below. M&A can be played with some funds. I'm hoping that anything negative and widespread into U.S. equities, NOT HAPPENING, from whatever policies arrive after Jan. 20, 2025.
Kinda like being invited to a 'bonfire' and some folks keep piling more wood, and then you spy a 5 gallon can of kerosene sitting nearby and too close to the fire..... It's probably time to leave the area.
Tariffs:

Trump’s first stab at tariffs had a fiscal cost of $12 billion in federal farm aid in 2018 and $16 billion in 2019, funded using Section 5 authority of the Commodity Credit Corporation, according to the Congressional Research Service.

The 'CCC' is reportedly not favorable with Republicans and that they would prefer to eliminate its function.
The 2018/2019 losses in only U.S. soybean farmers was a reduction of exports to China at the rate of -74%, thus the subsidies required to farmers. China moved to South America for the product and still remains there.
M & A, mergers and acquisitions: If there is a lot less regulation, one might expect a more 'wild west' in this area.
LASTLY, I remain skeptical about the track records of the 'big houses/big thinkers' presuming they know what's going to happen in the next 12 or 24 months.

... I also moved a large percentage of my "taxable" Schwab account, in 2023, to CDs in a local Bank account--those Bank Account CDs can be sold before maturity, with a less "painful" early redemption fee. Also, with all of my Schwab brokerage accounts (taxable and IRA), I maintain MM accounts for liquidity purposes, such as RMD selling obligations each year.

When choosing between a 1 year CD and say, an 18 month CD in a taxable account, it may be worth keeping in mind that the 1 year CD (or any shorter one) might not be taxed until its maturity date. Interest is taxable as credited, which is why getting a CD that pays its interest at maturity makes the interest tax-deferred. The downside is that you don't get monthly interest payments if you need the cash flow.
https://www.seattlebank.com/about/updates/updates-detail.html?cId=84542
If you don't need the cash (possibly not the situation here), you don't need to liquidate IRA holdings to take RMDs. They can be taken in-kind. If the market is up this can be advantageous as you need to distribute (withdraw) fewer shares to meet your RMD requirements. And if the market is down and if you've kept some liquid holdings in the IRA, you can use those for the RMDs instead.
No matter how you take the RMD distribution you owe taxes on the value of the distribution. Unless you use the distribution to make

direct qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) to qualified nonprofit/charitable organizations.

msf, here is the key statement from my Original Thread Post regarding CDs that are maturing:
"I am wrestling with renewing at the 4.3% rate, with almost no stress, or jumping back into the more active investing options. Anyone else in a similar situation?
If you are a CD investor, with current CDs that are maturing, I would be interested in your response regarding your personal investing decision, about reinvesting the maturity back into CDs, or shifting to a different kind of investment.

Yes, Tom Lee is not that bullish on 2025 but his call is still up 8.6%. I fluctuate, just not in crowded elevators.

A 25 bps rate cut in December FED meeting is expected. Commentary from Nuveen.

Key risk:
1. Inflation fails to continue moderating as expected, weighing on asset prices.
2. Policymakers unsuccessfully juggle fighting inflation with supporting economies still struggling to gain traction.
3. Geopolitical flare-ups intensify around the world.

https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/investment-outlook/fixed-income-weekly-commentary?utm_source=sfmc&utm_term=&utm_content=317245&utm_id=487c7a11-9b5f-451e-b69e-c0b2b8c0805f&sfmc_id=221196836&sfmc_activityid=08eab76d-23d9-4047-8842-9a48e8115e98&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=us_nwre_subs_gnrl_emal_1224_02_na_na_weeklyinsights1209&sfmc_journey_id=487c7a11-9b5f-451e-b69e-c0b2b8c0805f&sfmc_journey_name=eWkeylnIishgst2_201402_9onSncFnoattcs&sfmc_activity_id=08eab76d-23d9-4047-8842-9a48e8115e98&sfmc_activity_name=sun_rw_eussbg_rn_lmela1_22_420n__aanw_eelkiysngith1s029&sfmc_asset_id=317245&sfmc_channel=email

Fundstrat's Tom Lee calling for 6600 S&P 500 by year end 2025 but it won't be a straight line up.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fundstrats-tom-lee-is-no-longer-one-of-wall-streets-biggest-bulls-why-hes-cautious-on-2025-8248c01f

When asked about the markets in 2025, online Magic 8 Ball came up with "Outlook good".
You can now buy with confidence.

The one I got from my broker said "Outlook Hazy: Please Shake Again" and charged me a commission....

When asked about the markets in 2025, online Magic 8 Ball came up with "Outlook good".
You can now buy with confidence.

Easy Sneezy / +10% on the S&P in 2025 according to Goldman Sachs (Not my favorite outfit)
Party on ..
Does make you wonder why anybody would invest in cash at 5%?

Sold JAAA from the IRA. After about a month of ownership I got tired of looking at names like Uncle Billy's Triple A Tranche and Aunt Martha's Well-Endowed CLO's.
I have taken the proceeds, along with some cash, and added to CBLDX and started a position in CBRDX. That will get me closer to 50% bonds. At the present time I am not buying bonds that ended 2022 in the red.
Equities are about 43%. I'm in no hurry to get to 50%.
Nothing shaking in the taxable but the leaves on trees.