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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • giroux m* update
    Why would anyone invest with TROW nowadays? This company is not what it used to be in prior decades. Their lineup of funds have lagged. And, PRWCX will not be what it has been in the past. It is hard for the firm to attract top talent. Just buy a super low fee S&P500 index and some BRK.B. Keep your costs low.
  • Starting a new thread: Bloomberg Real Yield. (Begin, 08/08/25) Hiatus starts 21 Nov. '25
    26 Sept, '25.
    Scarlet Fu again.
    High Grade issuance in USA and Europe is at a record, this week. $197B in the States. This week, Junk issuance is at a record, $48B. Busiest week in 5 years. There is a borrowing boom, surely on the heels of the recent FED rate reduction by 0.25%.
    There was an A.I. focused conversation and attention paid to Oracle, which issued a rare 40-year bond. Do you really want to own that? Or flip it?
    Long bond back in favor. There is a reduction in long-end supply. A lot of FED easing is already priced into 2026.
    Inflation is sticky, about 1% above FED target. No recession expected. Labor market cooling, not collapsing.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-09-26/real-yield-9-26-2025-video
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    I've taken a careful look at CBLDX but like Observant1 don't feel it is good in a core position. Rather, I could use it to stretch risk in my near-cash (0-5 year) sleeve. For that satellite role I find it a close call.
    Core has different meanings to different investors.
    If DODIX is considered core for many, I would invest twice in CBLDX as my core. I rather have a great manager, with small AUM that knows how to select bonds and navigate markets.
    BTW, I have been posting for several years about the following 3 funds managed by Sherman from less risky to more RPHIX(great "sub" MM), CBLDX, and RSIIX.
    3 year Sharpe based on MFO...DODIX=0..........CBLDX=1.8 and...RSIIX=1.25.
    5 year Sharpe based on MFO...DODIX=(-0.3)...CBLDX=1.8 and...RSIIX=1.4.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    I had fun with the query
    Exactly! That's a big motivator in commenting on some threads.
    I may have a sense of what Observant1 is looking for. As I tried to prune my portfolio I sought a reasonably behaved solid bond fund to anchor the fixed income side of my portfolio. Something that would return more than cash-ish or run of the mill short-ish funds. I don't look at long duration (these funds are more suitable for bets on interest rates than for long term, stable holdings). I'm willing to take on some credit risk but not sink into a junk-heavy portfolio. And preferably a core fund would have a long track record from a well regarded money manager.
    On the one hand, one can stretch boundaries a bit to avoid lagging. OTOH, one tries to avoid taking on fundamental risks regardless of how well behaved the fund appears to be. Performance, even risk adjusted performance is not the end all.
    In the interest of partial disclosure :-) I'll say that I've owned or do own more than one of the funds already mentioned. This is just to suggest that I've been looking around for what I think are similar reasons.
    I've taken a careful look at CBLDX but like Observant1 don't feel it is good in a core position. Rather, I could use it to stretch risk in my near-cash (0-5 year) sleeve. For that satellite role I find it a close call.
  • Time to sell Amazon ?
    @Derf- I just dropped $100 there today. Hang in there- I'll try to keep making up for the missing $2.5.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    If you are comfortable with the risk, then ICMUX looks better than CBLDX and RCTIX.
    CBLDX=I don't pay too much attention to ratings and a lot more to actual performance,risk,SD. Sherman proved it already.
    TSIIX lags CBLDX for 1-3 years. No go.
    WCPBX made just 10% in 5 years. No go.
    Anything VG bond funds is always a no-go for me, including VCPAX.
    BATPX: too volatile. No go
    LCTIX: higher SD than CBLDX, lower performance for 1 year. Higher for 3-5.
    ENIAX: similar to CBLDX
    ICMUX: more volatility but the best return for 1-3-5 years.
    Now, it depends on your allocation, style, and how long you hold. I always invested in bond funds with good risk/reward but also great performance. Never high-rated bond funds.
  • Time to sell Amazon ?
    My take is that any damage would already have shown up in the stock. It doesn't appear that much selling is occurring.
    A large amount of what I have is in mutual funds, so no selling there. I bought a chunk in late 2022 around $85 share, and am hanging onto that as well. I believe gman57 is correct.
  • Re: the prospect of L. Cook's firing and obliteration of FED independence
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/26/trump-fed-cook-scotus-markets.html
    Trump's DOJ lawyers told the SCOTUS: "firing her would not create any Market disaster."
    ...Um.... These people passed the Bar Exam? What has any Market reaction got to do with the fact that the firing of Lisa Cook is inappropriate and completely illegal?
    VEXATIOUS LITIGANT.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    My question starts with why do you need a core bond fund?
    I looked at CBLDX and IMO, it's better than all the funds above.
    I checked from 1-1-2020 and it's number one.
    For one year it's not number 1, but it's still among the top.
    And it's the best risk/reward fund, AKA Sharpe.
    It still pays about 5.3% yearly dist based on last month.
    The manager's track record is known.
    Thanks, FD1000.
    To complement my equity holdings, I'm seeking a primary bond fund with the potential
    for higher future returns than DODIX or BCOIX without assuming too much risk.
    CBLDX is an excellent fund and David Sherman is a talented portfolio manager.
    However, CBLDX has a greater allocation to below investment-grade bonds
    than I'm comfortable holding within my primary bond fund.
    I am considering this fund as a potential satellite position
    with a considerably smaller allocation in a different account.
    I also like RCTIX and ICMUX for this role.
    CBLDX as of 06/30/2025 (M*)
    BB - 10.79%
    B - 24.24%
    Below B - 0.20%
    Not Rated - 26.75%
    RCTIX as of 08/31/2025 (River Canyon)
    BB - 14%
    B - 22%
    Below B - 10%
    Not Rated - 19%
    ICMUX as of 06/30/2025 (Intrepid Capital)
    BB - 30.8%
    B - 30.7%
    Below B - 7.3%
    Not Rated - 20.9%
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Here are several funds which are/were being considered ... WCPBX
    I was going to ask how you would purchase WCPBX, or in the alternative say wow, I'm impressed, $1M min in most places.
    But upon checking, I see that Vanguard offers it with a $500 min. Any other ways to access it?
    WABAC mentioned possible concerns over large amounts of securitized debt (presumably with its distinctive risk profile). DODIX holds 50% in securitized debt. Perhaps that is why its drawdown 8/1/21 to 10/31/22 (using monthly performance figures) was -15.11% (per M*). And its risk score (again, M*) is 16, which is a little high if one is looking for a moderately conservative bond fund.
    The point is that in stretching constraints a bit one can sometimes turn up an interesting prospect. (Mona made the same point.)
    With that in mind, TSIIX may be worth a look. Taking together both its junk rated (19.31%) and its unrated (5.57%) bonds, its remaining (IG) holdings are a bit under your 80% min target. And its securitized holdings, though less than those of D&C (3/8 vs 4/8) are still substantial.
    Counterbalancing this is its superior stability (3,5,10 yr std devs all around 4) and a max drawdown between 10/1/21 and 10/31/22 (monthly performance) of "just" -8.09% (M*).
    Personally I like the fact that its portfolio allocations can change significantly. But that does mean that you would run the risk of it meandering well outside your guardrails from time to time.
    Yes, I'll have access to WCPBX via Vanguard.
    I'm not aware of any other brokerages which allow access to this fund
    with a low minimum investment but haven't conducted extensive research.
    I'll look into TSIIX.
    Thanks!
  • Time to sell Amazon ?
    With 2.5 billion $ going to settlement, is it time to sell?
    As for myself, I'm waiting to see if I will be included in settlement.
    Read about it here;
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/amazon-set-pay-historic-2-5-billion-settlement-customers-able-get-piece
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    When I have responded to the OP in this thread I have tried to keep in mind that he just might know his own druthers better than I do.
    If I was looking to creep out on the duration limb I might look at similar constraints.
    But, you know . . .
    So I tacked CBLDX onto my query.
    I did not put a duration floor on my query, and it should go without saying that the funds mentioned below will have much less of it.
    I'm not making any adjustments in the ranking for multiple share classes.
    At five years CBLDX would have given you the better Sharp, but BATPX would have returned 8.2 vs 6.1
    At four years CBLDX wins on Sharp, but is outperformed by BATPX, LCTIX, and ENIAX.
    At three years CBLDX still leads on Sharp. There are now seven funds ahead in performance one of which is ENIAX only .12 behind in the Sharp race.
    At 2.5 years CBLDX falls to 16th place on Sharp. It ties for 6th place on returns.
    At two years CBLDX drops down to 20th place on Sharp. It ties for 9th place on returns.
    At 1.5 years CBLDX is way down there on Sharp. It's down to 10th place on returns.
    At one year CBLDX falls to 29th place on Sharp. It's now back up to 6th place on returns.
    MFO Premium works on month to month numbers. If you have a way to track daily performance then your results may differ.
    I did the ranks by human-powered eyeball, so let me know if you see an error when you run the query as I have.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    Here are several funds which are/were being considered ... WCPBX
    I was going to ask how you would purchase WCPBX, or in the alternative say wow, I'm impressed, $1M min in most places.
    But upon checking, I see that Vanguard offers it with a $500 min. Any other ways to access it?
    WABAC mentioned possible concerns over large amounts of securitized debt (presumably with its distinctive risk profile). DODIX holds 50% in securitized debt. Perhaps that is why its drawdown 8/1/21 to 10/31/22 (using monthly performance figures) was -15.11% (per M*). And its risk score (again, M*) is 16, which is a little high if one is looking for a moderately conservative bond fund.
    The point is that in stretching constraints a bit one can sometimes turn up an interesting prospect. (Mona made the same point.)
    With that in mind, TSIIX may be worth a look. Taking together both its junk rated (19.31%) and its unrated (5.57%) bonds, its remaining (IG) holdings are a bit under your 80% min target. And its securitized holdings, though less than those of D&C (3/8 vs 4/8) are still substantial.
    Counterbalancing this is its superior stability (3,5,10 yr std devs all around 4) and a max drawdown between 10/1/21 and 10/31/22 (monthly performance) of "just" -8.09% (M*).
    Personally I like the fact that its portfolio allocations can change significantly. But that does mean that you would run the risk of it meandering well outside your guardrails from time to time.
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    My question starts with why do you need a core bond fund?
    I looked at CBLDX and IMO, it's better than all the funds above.
    I checked from 1-1-2020 and it's number one.
    For one year it's not number 1, but it's still among the top.
    And it's the best risk/reward fund, AKA Sharpe.
    It still pays about 5.3% yearly dist based on last month.
    The manager's track record is known.
  • Vanguard to Offer Crypto ETFs on its Brokerage Platform
    Not-the-mainstream-news media is reporting that "never-crypto" Vanguard is now considering offering crypto ETFs on its brokerage platform.
    Not on the mainstream media yet, but not denied by Vanguard either.
    https://coincentral.com/kraken-raises-500m-in-funding-round-valuing-crypto-exchange-at-15b/
    https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/575070-vanguard-bitcoin-etf/
  • "Core" Bond Fund Replacement
    I will transfer the pre-tax portion of my 401(k) to a Rollover IRA and need to replace the bond fund — DOXIX.
    DOXIX is a good fund which resides in the M* Intermediate Core-Plus category.
    I've expanded the search beyond Intermediate Core and Intermediate Core-Plus bond funds
    that many investors utilize for their primary fixed income positions.
    Desirable characteristics are listed below.
    at least 5 years of operating history but preferably more than 10 years¹
    short-to-intermediate term duration
    typically holds < 20% high-yield bonds
    typically holds < 20% EM bonds
    low/moderate volatility and max drawdowns
    expense ratio preferably < 1.00%
    Here are several funds which are/were being considered (~dozen others were reviewed).
    PFIIX
    PGBIX
    WCPBX
    GBOAX (too much high-yield, lots of EM also)
    DODLX (good trailing returns, low expenses, too volatile)
    I've read the posts in the Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs thread.
    I'm open to your suggestions — thanks in advance!
    ¹ Unless portfolio managers ran other funds with a similar strategy for > 5 years.
  • How did your portfolio do today
    Yup. Come to think of it, I dunno why my 3 single-stocks have not been assigned negative beta! But they were up while all else in the portfolio was down. Overall, on 25th Sept, '25:
    down by -0.29%.
    Stuff can't go up in a straight line. Mr. Market continues to ignore the political craziness.... until he can't any longer. By then, we'll all be screwed. In a sense we ALL already are. And SWVXX is down below 4%, at 3.99% yield. Stinky poopies. Time has come, I think to begin to think of my junk bonds as my cash substitute. Yes, the bond fund share prices can fall. But my chosen funds seldom fall 2 or 3 cents before they gain it back. Biggest junk holding offers 6.92% yield. The other offers 7.3%, still. Even in that dreadful year ('21? '22?) I just rode them down and then back up. No hurry, no urgency.
  • Johnathan Clements
    My first investment book was Andrew Tobias’ The Only Investment GuideYou’ll Ever Need. Most memorable point was that if the stock market ever enters bubble territory you should sell everything and move to cash. I may now be in flagrant violation of Tobias’ advice.
    I didn’t know FD needed books. Seems to operate by Divine Inspiration.
    I read many investment books/articles and many papers trying to find how to have a better risk/reward performance. I found it in 2000.
    After 2008, when I lost 25%, the only year I ever lost, I did a lot more reading and research on how to do timing. I tested hundreds of scenarios but none worked. I had to invent it.
  • Low Risk Bond OEFs for Maturing CDs
    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD. In terms of returns, HOSIX performed in line with HY bonds, hence my reference to BGHIX. What is unknown is how HOSIX will do when the space gets hit, and it inevitably will. What concerns me most is even looking at the structured space, other funds experienced significantly more volatility (the SD for CLOZ was 3.07 compared to 1.25 for HOSIX...and the max DD was 1.35 versus .16). Was this the result of better bond selection at HOSIX or the possibility that HOSIX has hard to price bonds such that volatility is masked when the bonds perform? Again, no one knows. I think I will still with JSVIX for now. Those guys from Semper have seen tough times before and that provides some comfort. Separate from these bond funds, I've been pretty impressed with BUYW in terms of risk v. reward. Good luck all!

    What made HOSIX great to this point is its SD.

    Nope. Both performance and risk/SD were great. That's 2 knockouts.
    RPHIX has better SD than HOSIX but performance is far behind.
    This is exactly what I'm looking for. Performance + lower SD. It doesn't mean I get the best performance; I get good risk-adjusted performance funds.
    Remember, SD is based on monthly numbers and does not always show the volatility.
    I don't invest in typical HY or EM, and if I do, it's only for weeks.
    But if I'm looking for riskier funds, EGRIX, and APDPX would be top funds for me.
    See 3+ years of EGRIX, APDPX, BGHIX
    (
    link).
    You can also see YTD at (https://schrts.co/egqaVFzj)

    The fact is that since the inception of HOSIX its CAGR is 8.97 versus 8.01 for BGHIX. I get the comparison over the past three years of the funds you listed on PV...but if you go back past 3 years you can look at how HOBIX compares to BGHIX (surrogate for the HY space) back to 2016. While I get that HOBIX is not HOSIX, if I recall correctly it was still a fund heavily invested in the securitized space. It's not such a pretty picture for HOBIX as BGHIX performed better overall, and even better compared to EGRIX, which shows how different times can yield very different outcomes.
    You are concentrating on the wrong things:
    * DT doesn't care about ONLY performance. He cares a lot more about performance and volatility for his own goals. BGHIX would never be an option.
    * My style and goals are a bit different. I don't mind taking more risk/SD but only to a certain point. Investing in BGHIX long term for me would be rare. I'm looking for funds that have done well lately + very low SD. I'm also a slow trader. I don't care what BGHIX did 3-4-8 years ago. The fact remains that HOSIX did great during 2023-4.
    * If I was looking to hold several years from today, I would hold EGRIX, not BGHIX. Of course the future is unknown, which is why I have never committed to holding since 2000 while I see better funds.