Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop through Friday, 26 September 2025. Monthly flow tools updated through August and the daily FLOW tool updated through Friday.

@WABAC, interesting that our oversea funds/ETFs far out-paced that of S&P500. Same goes for bonds too on dollar term. For now i will take a wait and see.

I no longer look at etfs for bond funds. PYGSX is about as close as I can get for the duration I'm willing to endure. I am caught between China exporting deflation and Europe running guns and butter with low rates.
I'm thinking about slowly building a position in EISIX in the IRA as long as the conditions I quoted above are in place.
I have enough foreign in the taxable thanks to VWIGX, SEQUX, and a few others.

I love my induction hotplate. It adds almost no heat to the environment, which is a consideration during an Arizona cooling season.
I also like the ability to fine-tune the temperature setting. So I'm currently cooking something at 175, and if I forget about it, the machine turns itself off after an hour unless I have programmed a longer time. In any event, it would never get hotter than 175.
My darling wife loves the blue flame on the gas stove at all seasons. She also buys stuff from Amazon. Otherwise, we all admit She is practically perfect in every way.
I would investigate noise, reliability, and the cost of running a new circuit before looking into going all in on an induction range.
Heat pumps are all the rage in our part of the world. "Older" homes still have gas pipes in place for running gas-fired air conditioners after the end of swamp-cooler season.
Talk about thread drift, yikes. :-D

@WABAC, interesting that our oversea funds/ETFs far out-paced that of S&P500. Same goes for bonds too on dollar term. For now i will take a wait and see.

So said Irving Fisher many years ago. Today I read that there is a new normal on Wall Street. Dinky linky.

strategists are rethinking what normal looks like for today’s market.
Bank of America equity strategist Savita Subramanian is among those making the case.
“Perhaps we should anchor to today’s multiples as the new normal rather than expecting mean reversion to a bygone era,”
/snip
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, told Yahoo Finance that while valuations remain elevated compared to long-term averages, they look more justifiable when measured against the past five years — a stretch marked by megacap leadership and strong fundamentals.
“Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 is trading at roughly a 40% premium to its long-term average on forward estimates,” he said. “But on a five-year basis, when mega-cap tech began to dominate market cap and earnings growth, that premium shrinks to a high single-digit range.”

1. I'm waiting to read the magic words.
2. It's really interesting to see what lengths people go to to find reassuring patterns in data.

A few thoughts come to mind . . .
I would like to see a breakdown of where that money is coming from. Is it some sort of flight to safety> Or is it wanting to get in on the AI boom?
I have a feeling that 30% of our equity market invested from overseas is going to be less sticky than money invested domestically, i.e., it might be likely to flee fastest at any sign of trouble.
Considering the political drift of this thread, this part of the article caught my eye:

While returns have been solid in 2025, at the index level, the purchases haven’t been as lucrative as they would have been if executed in other major stock markets. The S&P 500 has underperformed equity benchmarks in Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Japan and China, both in local currency and in US dollar terms.
The MSCI World Index has advanced 15% this year and is currently on pace to outperform the S&P 500 for the first time since 2017. The MSCI All-Country World Index with US stocks excluded is outperforming more sharply, rising 22% compared with 13% for the S&P 500.

Well. That's interesting. We're setting records, and all those sleepy country markets are whupping us.
So I asked my friend Perplexity to scrape the collective wisdom of the internet to learn when, and under what conditions, international equities have out-performed US equities. Perplexity does a nice job of showing the resources it scrapes for its answers.
The long answer is at the dinky linky. For now I'll skip the history lesson and quote the section on salubrious conditions since foreign beats domestic 40% of the time.

Conditions Favoring Foreign Equity Outperformance
Valuation Discounts: Foreign stocks are often priced at substantial discounts to US peers, sometimes at as much as a 35% discount, making them more attractive on a forward-return basis, especially during periods when US valuations are elevated.
Currency Effects: Periods of US dollar weakness tend to amplify returns for US investors holding foreign equities. Conversely, a strong dollar often dampens relative foreign returns.
Cyclical Macro Shifts: International equities benefit when global economic growth prospects outside the US are stable or improving, particularly when the US is facing recessions, stagflation, or policy uncertainty (e.g., tariff shocks, higher US interest rates).
Sector Leadership: Foreign markets with strong sector tailwinds (such as renewable energy in Europe or manufacturing in Asia) can outperform when those sectors are globally competitive.
Policy and Structural Reforms: Governments outside the US with fiscal capacity and willingness to stimulate growth can boost earnings for local stocks.
US Market Headwinds: Foreign equities tend to outperform when US equities are affected by factors such as policy-driven uncertainty, overvaluation, or a narrow concentration of gains among a few mega-cap stocks. [In regard to that last insight I'll add that we've boiled our market down from a nifty fifty to a mag7]

Thought it was time for an update on tariff price impacts. In March 2025, I updated all our kitchen appliances from a local big box appliance store.
Refrigerator cost $2200. Now 6 months later $2900, same model $700 more.
Stove cost $1000. Now 6 months later $1200, same model $200 more
Dishwasher cost $1000. Now 6 months later $1100, same model $100 more.
Microwave cost $329. Now 6 months later $399, same model $70 more.
A 23.6% total price increase before taxes. Glad I bought before tariffs.
Anyone care to add their experiences, good or bad?

new slogan :
Vanguard proudly offers Agency cost at the lowest cost!
IVA 2025 review of ~50 managers :
22 : (more than half): $0 invested in their own funds.
7 : <$100k—effectively nothing for highly paid managers.
10 : Between $100k and $500k.
2 : $500k to $1 million.
2 —John C. Lanius (Federal Money Market, VMFXX) and Michelle Louie (Total
Stock Market Index, VTSAX)—have > $1m invested in one of their funds.
[check out that last high conviction allocation! where do these people actually put their massive salaries for decades @vanguard?]

Vanguard-employed portfolio managers could definitely be "eating more of their own cooking."
IVA also analyzed external portfolio managers' investments in their Vanguard funds.
"Portfolio managers from two firms—PRIMECAP Management and Wellington Management—
stand out for investing heavily in their own portfolios.
Managers from most other firms could do a lot better."
"However, remember that managers who live overseas can’t invest in U.S. mutual funds.
Other managers may, understandably, not want to invest in a fund watered down by other sub-advisers."
"I don’t say this to excuse their lack of investment.
Instead, the point is that while some managers may not be eating their Vanguard cooking,
they may be eating their own cooking, just off a different plate."

In the case of housing upgrades you’re looking at higher costs for insurance, heat & utilities, maintenance, property taxes, and probably other.
Housing extensions could very likely trigger higher taxes and insurance. Upgrades, maybe not.
One of these years we will have to replace our HVAC's condenser (cooling unit). When we do, we will upgrade to a heat pump. It will be more efficient resulting in lower utility bills. We might use the heat pump to replace our furnace as well.
We are just south of climate zone 5 meaning, in theory, we can do without a special cold climate heat pump. That may or may not lower heating bills (depending on how gas prices move relative to electric costs), but it would be better for the environment.
We're also looking at upgrading (renovating) our whole kitchen. That could include replacing our gas stove with an induction stove (for health reasons). If we make our home gasless (no gas furnace, no gas dryer, no gas stove), we can cut our connection to the gas company and save monthly connection charges.
I'm not suggesting that these sorts of upgrades are cheap. (This is how you spend down your investments.) But some of them have the potential of lowering utility costs. And they shouldn't affect property taxes the same way as adding on a room would.
Unfortunately others and various charitable and environmental organizations can enjoy what I have reaped after I pass.
I would like to contribute more than we do to various organizations now, except ...
LTC for 2 people can go through a sizable nest egg pretty damn fast. Two in LTC could be $200k+/year!!
And there are also family responsibilities assumed voluntarily - helping out with extraordinary medical expenses, education, and being available as a resource of last resort. Definitely not a complaint - I'm glad we're fortunate enough to be able to help out. But it is a good part of the reason we don't donate more now.

"There are so many media outlets, some posing as expert voices,
that paint everything in the US as if it’s going down the drain.
In my opinion, some people make investment decisions based on politics
and the grim stories the media feeds them."
Some people do make investment decisions based on politics — often to their detriment.
The subject is off-topic for this particular thread.
"Isn't the US the best place to invest LT?"
The U.S. has been the best place to invest over the past 15 years or so.
Will it be the best place to invest over the next 10, 15, or 20 years?
Frankly, my crystal ball is cloudy — I don't know the answer to this question.

I know why I don't' spend it down. I live comfortably and do mostly what I want but LTC for 2 people can go through a sizable nest egg pretty damn fast. Two in LTC could be $200k+/year!!

Long-term care is extremely costly to pay for over the years, and when you finally need it, you often face loopholes and delayed payments. Most people can’t afford it, and many who can don’t really need it because they already have sufficient funds.

Just a thought, but maybe some momentum to beat tariffs/inflation is still driving high-income spending? Either way, a big market drop might put an abrupt end to that spending.
My spending has been rather high for over 5 years as I address home maintenance/upgrades prior to retirement. The threat of tariffs accelerated that somewhat. Much of that comes to an end this year for us. Basically running out of things that need to be done/bought.

[snip]
There’s a group that loves to tarnish the US, and they did so from 2017 to 2021 and again in 2025.

This isn't about "tarnishing" the U.S. nor is this thread intended to be a partisan political discourse.

Where else would you invest LT?
There’s a group that loves to tarnish the US 24/7, and they did so from 2017 to 2021 and again in 2025.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/25/shale-oil-execs-say-trump-policies-are-hurting-investment-business-is-broken.html
Remember when U.S. energy independence was a priority and talking point? And much of that was due to the shale boom?
"Shale oil executives say President Donald Trump is hurting investment in the oil patch, and are giving a grim outlook for the future of the industry that turned the U.S. into the largest crude producer in the world.
But Trump’s push for lower crude prices, higher tariffs, and the resulting uncertainty caused by his “stroke of pen” policies are hurting investment, executives at independent oil and gas producers told the Dallas Fed.
Nearly 80% of executives who participated in the survey said they have delayed investment decisions in response to heightened uncertainty about the future price of oil and the cost of producing crude.
“We have begun the twilight of shale,” one executive said, pointing to layoffs by the thousands and industry consolidation under big companies like Exxon Mobil. “The writing is on the wall,” the unnamed manager said.

I was surprised by foreigners' enthusiasm for US stocks.
Perhaps they are just as captivated by the AI theme as we are?
"While data show that foreigners have scaled back on travel to the US along with some purchases
of US-made products, the American stock market has proven too enticing to quit.
Part of that owes to the dominance of firms chasing riches in artificial intelligence,
which has swelled the share prices of Nvidia Corp., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc., among others.
And while they have been buying stocks, foreign investors have sent the dollar sharply lower,
perhaps hedging exposure to the US."
"Foreign buyers hold some $18 trillion in US stocks, about 30% of the nearly $60 trillion market,
the most in data going back to 1945, according to Fed data cited by Bank of America.
The dollar value of their holdings has obviously appreciated with asset prices,
though the percentage of the total has climbed."
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2025/09/26/foreigners-buying-us-stocks-record-pace-despite-trade-war

I’ve been looking at foreign currencies as a dollar hedge and it led me to this map. IMO: (1) Highly democratic nations are more likely to govern by rule of law and therefore better respect property rights. (2) Democracies are better suited to having strong independent central banks which should bode well for their currencies. Just one source, but seems to be in agreement with others I’ve seen.
Currency etfs I’ve considered: FXA, UDN, FOXY, FXY. Already own FXF. Thread will likely end up in off-topic if investment related comments expire or cease to exist.

@gman57. Thank you! That’s why we don’t spend it down. We have a friend in a LTC facility and our next door neighbor with 6 days a week in home care. It’s real.

Alternative link for Barron's article

Thanks! I couldn't find it using the usual tricks.

If you can live comfortably off the income stream generated (or average annual return on investment) then why spend it down? Somebody said, if a man could have half his wishes, he’d double his troubles. In the case of housing upgrades you’re looking at higher costs for insurance, heat & utilities, maintenance, property taxes, and probably other.
No serious argument with the rest of @bee’s article. I think growth of principle on a reasonably consistent basis is what’s important, whether from fixed income / dividend paying stocks / or other. A retired 65 year old is going to view all this differently than a retired 80 year old.