4.3% nonCallable Cds have virtually disappeared for now. Doubtful they will reappear anytime soon. I had a Bank CD mature, and I decided to reinvest it back into a 12month CD at the same bank, at 4%. Schwab brokerage CDs do not look very attractive at all, so I am inclined to just place any maturing brokerage CDs into MM funds for now. You can get callable CDs at Schwab for about 4.5%, with the first call date being in about 6 months

Exited SOBO (spinoff from TRP) as part of EOY portfolio rejiggering.
Bought 250 NVO on the massive plunge today. Will be a candidate to add on lower prices over time.

Nice posts by @Anna. As her citations show, (a) without some adjustment, workers with some income from non-covered jobs will receive an unfair windfall, and (b) the formula used to make this adjustment (the best that could be done at the time it was enacted) has its own inequities built in.
The solution, as seen in proposals across the political spectrum, is to fix the formula.
(1) Add up all the earnings (not just covered earnings),
(2) calculate the percentage to be paid in SS benefits, and
(3) apply that percentage to the amount of covered earnings.
This is the same way states with progressive income taxes calculate how much a part time resident owes in taxes. H.R. 6489, the Social Security Reform Act of 2016 included this. Here's what the Chief Actuary of Social Security wrote to the House about this calculation:

Another way to describe the new approach is that beneficiaries will receive a benefit that reflects the replacement rate applicable for a worker with the same career earnings, where all earnings had been covered.
...
We estimate that enactment of this provision alone would reduce the long-range OASDI actuarial deficit by 0.03 percent of taxable payroll and would reduce the annual deficit for the 75th projection year (2090) by 0.05 percent of payroll.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/solvency/SJohnson_20161208.pdf
Two workers with the same lifetime incomes should receive the same percentage of the amount they paid into SS. Get rid of WEP, and one worker gets a higher percentage than the other. That's not fair. Here's a three line table illustrating this.
Yes, the source is the Heritage Foundation, the same people who brought you Project 2025. Sometimes they get the numbers right, even if their policies are, um, questionable.

Sold AOK (after 1 day) and reduced amount in LVHI. Created an ”Equity & Income” sleeve (18% of portfolio) with equal parts: LVHI, INCM, WEA, GGN. The last one focuses on natural resources and precious metals, but states its primary mission as generating income. Having vacated PRPFX recently, wanted to gain back a bit of P/M exposure. I’ve been stalking GGN for months. It has fallen back in recent weeks.
Couldn’t find a single fund I was comfortable with to occupy the one final sleeve among the 5 majors after selling TRTY yesterday - the reason I created my own fund-of-funds of sorts.
5 sleeves X 18% each = 90%, and 10% cash is where I sit (or sink).

And he avoids jail time.
As president to be,
He doth go free.
Remember OJ (If it doesn't fit, you must acquit.) He still lost money ($33.5M) in civil court.
Le Grande Orange (with apologies to Rusty Staub) is not absolutely immune to civil procedure (thank you Paula Jones). There are plenty of civil suits in progress, and he has more assets at risk than Giuliani.
The 2017 tax law included provisions especially favorable to the real estate business (including provisions that won't expire). The Trump Organization is real estate. Wih Speaker (?) Musk in charge, we might see a different set of priorities in the next tax bill - invest accordingly. Or perhaps sell investments if expecting an extended government shutdown.
As Yogi (the other one :-)) is often credited with saying, it's difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.

Just in case you had any doubt as to what Orangina's priorities are here....this morning he's totally down with shuting the government down "on Biden's watch" to get his way.
Orangina has no concern for the country whatsoever.

His loyalists (40% of the population) don't care about this. They allow themselves to be brain-washed - Biden is the sole reason for inflation issues, or so they now believe.
Orange is going to FIX EVERYTHING!!! LOL. Yeah. Tariffs, govt shutdowns and Project 2025. Then he just blames Dems for all the world's woes in the next 4 years.
And he avoids jail time.

IMO 2016-20 was a preview of 2025-2029 and had various guardrails around this town to help mitigate things a bit .... but if you thought it was crazy bad before, you probably ain't seen nothin' yet.

Like old times- Trump sends Congress scrambling to avoid a shutdown
From a current NPR report:

President-elect Donald Trump hasn't been sworn in yet but he's already running Washington again in his familiar style of upheaval and intraparty drama, starting with the decision to kill a bipartisan spending bill without a strategy to avoid a government shutdown.
House Republicans spent much of the day on Thursday working to salvage a plan to prevent a government shutdown that would would take effect days before Christmas. Members emerged from talks with House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., with an agreement amongst themselves on a stop-gap spending bill and a plan to rush the bill to the House floor for a vote.
Members wouldn't disclose many details of the agreement and staff admitted that Democrats have not signed off. Democrats still control the Senate and the White House and their buy-in will be necessary for any spending bill to become law.
Trump and his newest top lieutenant, Elon Musk, upended the bipartisan agreement on Wednesday designed to keep the government running into next year largely by mounting an opposition campaign on X, Musk's social media platform.

From a current report in The Guardian:

Donald Trump suffered a humiliating setback on Thursday when Republicans in Congress failed to pass a pared-down spending bill – just one day before a potential government shutdown that could disrupt Christmas travel.
By a vote of 174-235, the House of Representatives rejected the Trump-backed package, hastily assembled by Republican leaders after the president-elect and his billionaire ally Elon Musk scuttled a prior bipartisan deal.
Critics described the breakdown as an early glimpse of the chaos to come when Trump returns to the White House on 20 January. Musk’s intervention via a volley of tweets on his social media platform X was mocked by Democrats as the work of “President Musk”.
“The Musk-Johnson proposal is not serious,” Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, told reporters. “It’s laughable. Extreme Maga Republicans are driving us to a government shutdown.”
Despite Trump’s support, 38 Republicans voted against the new package along with nearly every Democrat, ensuring that it failed to reach the two-thirds threshold needed for passage and leaving the next steps uncertain.
The defiance from within Trump’s own party caught many by surprise.

Sold TRTY. Split the proceeds between LVHI & AOK. Each 8.5% of portfolio.

Making correction to my earlier posting.
Better: ARTKX -6.3%, FMIJX -3.8%, FPACX -2.3%, CGBL 2.5%, RSIIX +0.0%
Worse: BND -1.8%
This is more like a thought exercise. A 10 days performance varies quite a bit. However, I like to compare each fund/ETF to their benchmarks for the year. Additionally, tracking the fund’s ups and downs provide insights on its volatility.
RSIIX, for example, is the least volatile of all my bond funds and yet the YTD return as of 12/13/24 is 7.9%. Although BND is a broadly diversified bond index fund, its volatility is due its sensitivity to interest rates.

Here is more details from the funding bill mess. Quote from the article.

Musk didn’t seem to think a government shutdown would have significant consequences for the country. He responded “YES” to a post that read, “Just close down the govt until January 20th. Defund everything. We will be fine for 33 days.” Another Musk post said a shutdown “doesn’t actually shut down critical functions.”
But while essential functions would continue during a shutdown, there are significant real-world effects: Other government employees will halt their day-to-day work and miss paychecks. While Social Security checks will go out and mail will be delivered, agency shutdowns cause massive lost productivity. A five-week shutdown from 2018 to 2019 caused the economy to lose about $3 billion, according to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office.

https://politico.com/news/2024/12/18/elon-musk-false-claims-cr-00195252
Glad that I sold a good chuck of tech stocks in November this year.

List the fund/etf you thought did better than you would expect and worse than you would expect.
Please don't compare it to a benchmark thats too easy. Just personal opinion. Some managers consistently outperform benchmarks.
Better: BALFX -2.07%, PRCFX -2.07%
Worse: GQHPX -5.94%, SCHD -5.59%, LCORX -4.91%, FMSDX -4.02%

AAII Sentiment Survey, 12/18/24
BULLISH remained the top sentiment (40.7%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (27.9%, below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (31.4%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +9.3% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget, debt, inflation, the Fed, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (147+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (62+ weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 26.0% (oversold). Fed cut the fed fund rate to 4.25-4.50%. Government shutdown looms as the budget deal collapsed in DC. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1781/thread

Here is the active link above.
https://irs.gov/newsroom/401k-limit-increases-to-23500-for-2025-ira-limit-remains-7000
Another way to get additional saving is through their employer’s matching contributions, often at 4% or more of their salary. There are exceptions that not all employers provide matching and the $ amount varies. If you are the fortunate ones that matching is available, so much the better with this “free money” for your retirement funds. Compounded growth of retirement do wonder when you start early in your career.

There is a new memecoins, Fartcoin, that I got to get some….
https://nbcnews.com/business/personal-finance/memecoins-what-are-they-why-are-they-popular-cryptocurrency-rcna184223
We have been swapping more SPY for short term high yield bond funds since early November. Stock % is now lowered than those % of bonds and cash. High valuation is a headwind going into 2025 while there are ample unknowns.

We are likely to revisit a government shutdown as the one during his first term in 2018-2019. Can’t believe that Johnson is bending to his demands and he has not even swore in until January 20, 2025.

From Kathy Jones, head of Fixed Income at Schwab..."Fed Cuts Interest Rate, Projects Fewer Cuts Ahead"
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting?hss_meta=eyJvcmdhbml6YXRpb25faWQiOiA3NDYsICJncm91cF9pZCI6IDgzMzQ2MSwgImFzc2V0X2lkIjogMTkxMDYxMywgImdyb3VwX2NvbnRlbnRfaWQiOiAxNDAwNTQ5NjYsICJncm91cF9uZXR3b3JrX2NvbnRlbnRfaWQiOiAyMTI2ODQ3MzF9

Pain level here, from 1 to 10. = 1.5

Notes by YBB
(My PC decided to have an update around 1:00 PM, so the posting of some FOMC Statement links via phone had an incorrect date. This was corrected where possible.)
Rates: Fed funds cut 25 bps to 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate to 4.40%, discount rate to 4.50%. Treasury QT continues at -$25 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
Powell gave a long explanation to why the rate was cut today & why the pace of cuts may be slower in 2025 (maybe 2 cuts). We are closure to the neutral rate (an unknown) but it’s different for the short- & long- term. If necessary, rates may even go up but that seems unlikely now.
Inflation is sticky in the 2.50-3.00% range due to housing (via OERs) & insurance (delayed catchup), but it may be +2.5% in 2025, +2% by 2027. The Fed’s targets apply to the headline PCE, but core PCE is better for the Fed policy.
Tariffs’ & counter-tariffs’ impacts will be evaluated when they come. The expectation is that their inflationary effects will be one-time. There was a Fed study on tariffs in 2018 & that will be updated.
Mortgage & other longer term rates haven’t come down because those are affected by several other factors.
Labor market has cooled, unemployment rate is 4.2%, labor turnover is low. The public is unhappy with high prices, but lower inflation doesn’t mean lower prices. At some point, with wage growth remaining above the inflation rate, the public sentiment may turnaround. Further cooling in labor isn’t expected to make further progress on inflation.
Geopolitical risks are high but their impact on the US economy would be via the oil prices that have been weak.
There was a question about the level of the stick market, but Powell ignored it (markets fell sharply). He said that 2024 has turned out to be a good year contrary to the earlier projections and 2025 should also be good.
LINK