Correlation between DJIA and SP500 is 95%. Of course, WSJ/Barron's/NWS and SPGI have interests in pushing DJIA.

I appreciate your interest in low stress places to put cash for 2-3 years. Different people have different objectives and that leads to different choices - as you said, that is okay.
2-3 year brokered CDs (callable) paying no more than 4.6%. A non-callable 2 year Treasury (coupon 4.25%) is expected to yield 4.3% at auction. In a taxable account, the Treasury note yields a similar amount after tax if your state has an income tax. And it comes without call risk.
Though the Treasury has reinvestment risk every six months on its coupon payment. OTOH, the CD has reinvestment risk on its principal if the CD is called. I find the former less stressful (not much cash is subject to reinvestment risk). You may feel differently - it's a matter of personal preference.
It is true that RPHIX did not return more than 4% before 2023. I suggest that a better way of looking at it is how much it outperformed cash. According to Portfolio Visualizer, it usually beat cash by 3/4% or more, with larger margins coming in years when cash returned under 2%. So it is not surprising that RPHIX has not exceeded 4% until recently. Cash has not exceeded 3% until recently.
Portfolio Visualizer comparing RPHIX and ^CASHUS.
The question becomes: what do you expect cash to do? You've answered that. You expect cash to be flat or drop slightly. (Not saying this is right or wrong - no one really knows - just restating your perspective.)
Cash (as represented by 3 mo T-bills) is currently (12/20/24) yielding 4.34%. Lop off another 1/2% (assume the Fed "aggressively" cuts rates), and we're looking at 3.8% next year. Conservatively, add 1/2% for the RPHIX yield. That comes to 4.3%. This is not the worst possible case, but a fair estimate of the worst reasonably possible case.
It looks like RPHIX won't do much worse than a CD and could do better. Should short term rates plummet beyond what I suggested above, then the CD will get called.
Either way, for me I find RPHIX less stressful. Fully liquid and no need for a plan B if the CD is called. You may not care much about those factors (i.e. they don't cause you stress) and find yield volatility vis a vis a CD stressful.
I just finished a 3 year electricity contract - no stress. I'm now on a 9 month contract - more stress. There's something to be said for locking in rates. Everyone is different, and each situation presents its own types of stress.
[CD rates from Schwab and Fidelity. Treasury expected yield from Fidelity.]

"10 consecutive days down"
The 24/7 media is always looking to make more than it is. The DOW was down 10 days.
Does any serious analyst look at the DOW? No, they watch the SP500.
When the DOW goes down over 1000 points, the media loves to say it was 4 digits down. mmm...what is 1000 points? less than 2.5%
Does 10 days matter? not so much, you got to look at much longer risk/reward.

Although this thread is about CDs, the bond oef RPHIX keeps getting mentioned as a viable alternative. I was a bond oef, momentum investor before I sold all my bond oefs in 2020. RPHIX produced a consistent TR of 1% to 3% almost every year before 2023. In 2023 and 2024, it had a TR of slightly over 5%. I invested in CDs during 2024 that made about the same as RPHIX. I still own a large number of CDs paying over 5%. As a previous bond oef investor, I do not believe RPHIX will make over 5% in 2025, but instead I expect it to have a TR in the 3 to 4% range. I can get that in 2025 wirh callable CDs with no stress, so I am not inclined to use RPHIX for my very conservative portfolio when CDs will produce comparable or better TR, with less risk. If I want a solid investment for the next 2 to 3 years of at least 4%, I will invest in a noncallable CD that pays 4%, not RPHIX with no history of making 4% except for 2023 and 2024. I am well aware that posters/investors who are opposed to CDs will likely not agree with me--that is okay!

"tariffs could add to the prices of imported goods"
While this is of course true, it's one of those boilerplate constructions that doesn't prompt one to think about the ordinary stuff used daily that has a large "imported" component. I'm thinking about that because I just read a report in The Guardian concerning Florida orange production. Here's an excerpt from that report:

"another hyperactive hurricane season, paired with the dogged persistence of an untreatable tree disease known as greening, has left a once thriving citrus industry on life support.
Only 12m boxes of oranges will have been produced in Florida by the end of this year... the lowest single-year yield in almost a century. The figure is 33% lower than a year ago, and less than 5% of the 2004 harvest of 242m boxes. It is also dwarfed by the 378m boxes expected to be produced this year in Brazil, the world’s largest grower and exporter of oranges."

So my morning glass of orange juice may be expected to cost 25% more in a few months if our new improved executive branch has it's way. How many other "everyday" products have a significant import component, and how much knowledge of or attention to detail does anyone expect our new improved executive branch to actually have?
And inflation is going to go down??

PAAA. Per it's last distributions, it's close to 4.7% on an annual basis
That's about right when one takes the last monthly distribution yield and compounds 12 times (12 months/year). The figure is as of the end of Nov (record date 11/29, ex date 12/2). FWIW, I get 4.706%.
Fidelity shows FSIXX having a compound annual yield of 4.61% as of the end of Nov.
After subtracting state taxes (say, 5.29% for GA in 2025), PAAA yields about 4.46%. The Treasury MMF seems the better choice for now: higher after (state) tax yield, underlying securities backed by the US Treasury, zero volatility (stable $1 price).
When rates start to go down, MM/CD/treasuries will be far behind
It matter what you mean by "rates". As the Van Eck piece you cited says: "Since the current rate cutting cycle began in September, long term yields have increased ... as of [10/31/2024]."
Intermediate term rates have also been increasing since September (as noted in my post above).
It's mainly short term rates that have declined since September. And with them, so have PAAA yields. PAAA's latest div is about 20% below that at the end of Aug or Sept, while its share price has risen slightly - meaning that the actual yield has dropped more than 20%.
In comparison, FSIXX's divs have dropped just 14% or so over the same span. PAAA's (after tax) yield seems to be getting left behind as short term rates have fallen.
All of this could change as the Fed takes a breather on lowering the fed funds rate. Especially if inflation doesn't come down further. Food and energy price declines may not materialize and tariffs could add to the prices of imported goods.

DT: I qualified for SNAXX in 2020 in my IRA account, when I met the $1 million investment requirements, but have to use SWVXX for my taxable holdings because I did not have enough money to qualify for SNAXX

Easy solution. In 2020+2022 I held MM at Schwab. I purchased SNAXX in 2020 in my rollover(=trad) IRA. Then I transferred one share from TIRA to Roth IRA and from Roth one share to my taxable.
I actually also bought at that time SUTXX+SCOXX and transferred to all accounts because when risk is very high, I like the safer options.
=============
The older I get and more money I have, the more conservation I get, but no CD/treasuries for me so far. I still use MM when risk is very high and I'm out of market.
CLOs had one of the best opportunities I have seen for years. I still in them heavily. Great performance with very low volatility. I looked at PAAA. Per it's last distributions, it's close to 4.7% on an annual basis.
CLOZ, one of the lower-rated CLOs, made over 20% in just 1.5 years.
Portfolio Managers John Kerschner, Nick Childs, and Jessica Shill discuss why they believe the strategic case for AAA CLOs remains compelling amid Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
(https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/do-aaa-clos-still-make-sense-in-a-declining-rate-environment/)
Another CLOs link (https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/income-investing/why-clos-still-make-sense-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/)
RPHIX should be a no-brainer.
When rates start to go down, MM/CD/treasuries will be far behind.

alarm set for about 10 years
Now just 9½ years.
The public perception may have changed too about their fairness or unfairness.
It seems to me that it did, and in a rather curious way. Despite current antipathy toward "freeloading" government workers and government in general (there's a reason why Congress' pay raise was dropped from the CR), the unfair treatment of government workers was used effectively to garner support for eliminating WEP and GPO.
I find it interesting to compare the relative success (though it took years) in revoking these laws with the failed effort of Social Security notch babies to get more benefits for themselves. In both cases, it seemed that the loudest supporters of change were those who would directly benefit.
One difference is the size of the groups who stood to gain. Notch babies were just those workers born between 1917 and 1921. There are many more government workers. And they are still alive and apparently kicking.
Another difference is the matter of fairness. With WEP, most workers affected received less than their fair share of benefits. (Under WEP some high earners got more than their fair share, though less than they will receive now.) In contrast, all notch babies received more than their fair share; they just got less of a windfall than those born before 1917. That was their gripe.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/quinn/columns/030299.htm
Here's a paper with everything you wanted to know (and more) about the flaws in WEP and GPO and how two proposals could reduce (IMHO extinguish) inequities. TL; DR (19 page pdf).
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v79n3/v79n3p1.html (HTML format)
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v79n3/v79n3p1.pdf (pdf format)

Dec 21st Episode:

First Eagle Global Fund’s Matthew McLennan is finding value in unexpected places and holding gold for stability in an uncertain world.

https://wealthtrack.com/investing-in-a-high-risk-world/

I’d disagree that gold provides “stability.” 50% can lob-off the price of the metal in a matter of months. There have been 3-year stretches in our lifetimes during which miners have tanked 70% or more. And they call that ”stability”?
True - if man manages to annihilate himself gold would soar in value. But who would want spend it - and whatfor?

Thanks @AndyJ for finding a current (less than 1 day old) write about this legislation. This article clears the confusion about the bill going back to the House for another vote. I wasn't able to finish viewing C-SPAN as to what took place.
We watched Gabriella Miller speak (on MSNBC) about her legislation, which I recall had 5 separate pieces. She had a large face slap for awhile, when this was removed. She doesn't operate a 'power house' organization for this; but more of a low profile, grass roots type of operation doing battle against the LARGE, opposition money.

ADD: A reported gauge monitored by the FED, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) slowed somewhat, may have helped support positive pricing on Friday for bond NAVs, via lower yields.
ADD #2: MANY BOND funds had distributions this week, which should be reflected in this weeks numbers, as provided by their sources.
ADD #3: This is directed towards possibilities into the new government period arriving January 20, and monetary/fiscal actions.
--- Bond vigilantes are investors who sell government bonds or threaten to do so to force policy changes and discipline excessive government spending:
--- Explanation
Bond vigilantes use their market power to drive up borrowing costs for the government. This can happen when they protest against expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.
--- Origin
The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in the 1980s to describe traders who sold Treasury bonds to protest Federal Reserve policies that were considered too inflationary.
--- Example
In the "Great Bond Massacre" from 1993 to 1994, US 10-year yields increased from 5.2% to over 8% due to concerns about federal spending. The Clinton administration and Congress responded by reducing the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to around 4% by 1998.
NOTE:

My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.

FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
W/E December 20 , 2024. Bond NAV's Another HEAD SLAP for most + distributions
--- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find most bond sectors HAD ANOTHER HEAD SLAP for this week's pricing. The majority of bond sectors were down all day, with FRIDAY being the exception day. All durations pricing were down every day of the week. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was mostly DOWN. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.
NEXT:
*** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 16 - December 20, 2024
***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.37% yield (Unchanged for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a negative .05 - .07% basis change in yield for the week.
--- AGG = -.66% / +1.37% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
--- MINT = +.08% / +5.77% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
--- SHY = -.04% / +3.66 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
--- IEI = -.45% / +1.63% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
--- IEF = -.82% / -.46% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
--- TIP = -1.00% / +1.64% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
--- VTIP = -.37% / +4.50% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
--- STPZ = -.45% / +4.07% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- LTPZ = -2.24% / -4.31% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
--- TLT = -1.66% / -7.03% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
--- EDV = -2.31% / -11.54% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
--- ZROZ = -2.69% / -14.46% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
--- TBT = +3.69% / +24.74% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
--- TMF = -5.66% / -33.51% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
*** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
--- BAGIX = -.72% / +1.95% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
--- USFR = +.12% / +5.31% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
--- LQD = -1.25% / +.99% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
--- MBB = -.59% / +1.29% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
--- BKLN = -.24% / +7.84% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
--- HYG = -.53% / +7.87 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
--- HYD = -1.40%/+3.49% (VanEck HY Muni)
--- MUB = -.73% /+.93% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
--- EMB = -1.21%/+5.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
--- CWB = -2.16% / +11.59% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
--- PFF = -.88% / +7.96% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
--- FZDXX = 4.37% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
*** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
Comments and corrections, please.
Remain curious,
Catch

Rep Mike Levine from California has a copy of a leaked slide from House GOP planning $2.5 Trillion cuts in " mandatory spending" in Medicare, Veteran's benefits, food stamps, school lunches etc to fund Trumps Tax cuts. BTW did you know the 2017 changes in tax code benefiting real estate do not expire, like most of the rest of the law ?
I wonder how parents of children with cancer felt about the GOP trying to remove additional funding for childhood cancer research?
Hope none of you have a pre-existing condition if GOP cancels prohibition of pre-existing condition coverage
Unfortunately a lot, a lot, of people are going to suffer badly

Thei would be good for all Americans. The market was tracking closely as the stopgap bill went through its ups and downs.
https://npr.org/2024/12/20/nx-s1-5235273/government-shutdown-disaster-aid-trump-debt-ceiling

Well …the current issue (12/23/24) doesn’t have much to offer.
Cover Story ”Shopping Addiction” Really?
Slim pickings inside this week.
- The O’Brien piece on preparing your portfolio for 2025 is downright insulting:
“Rather than plotting big moves based on tea leaves, make sure your mix of stocks and bonds is still aligned with your goals. Stocks’ big run-up means you could have a higher equity allocation than you bargained for, especially if you didn’t make any tweaks after the S&P 500’s 24% gain in 2023.”
Gosh - You’d think that would be covered somewhere in a college freshman econ class, if not a high school investment club.
- One worthwhile story touts (undervalued / under appreciated) value stocks which are poised to outperform next year. Where have I heard that before?
- NVIDA’s on hard times (their phrase - ”dead in the water”) being down 15% from its high. My heart goes out to those who bought two years ago.
- And Forsyth expects one of 3 possible interest rate scenarios for 2025: Good, Bad or Ugly. Take that to the bank folks.

Call Protected CDs of 1-5-yr maturities of just under effective yields of 4.3% are currently available on Fido's Secondary Issues market. To discerning CD buyers, the CP CD buying scale was recently tipped to Secondary Issues being preferable many times to New Issues.
FWIW, both of our recent CP CD BUYs and all 3 of same in accounts we manage were BOT on the Fido Secondary Issues market, and all 5 were slightly better BUYs than those available as New Issues. Smallish discounts, but still, discounts, are back. In markets where every interest penny counts, we always take the free ones. Well, OK, not totally free. Scoping Secondary Issues takes a few minutes!

@Sven, for FRN funds (USFR, TFLO), approx yield = 4.296% + spread - ER.
I am sticking with USFR too.

One can get better yields with Treasury only MMFs, but only through a limited number of brokerages (those offering access to institutional class shares). It's a tradeoff - more work to access but easier bookkeeping (no cap gains, wash sales, etc. with MMFs).
Merrill Edge offers FSIXX (4.40% 7 day yield, 4.49% APY, in 2023 94.89% state tax exempt) and UTIXX (4.39% 7 day yield, 4.49% APY, in 2023 99.25% state tax exempt) with $1 mins.
WellsTrade has similar offerings (including a slightly better share class of the Fidelity fund, FRSXX) with no mins.

Short term yields seem to have anticipated the Fed move. The 1 month yield dropped significantly between Dec 2 (4.75%) and Dec 12 (4.43%), but has been relatively flat since (now 4.43%).
OTOH, the 2 and 10 year rates started their most recent rise on Dec 6 (4.10% and 4.15% respectively) and have continued to rise to and through the Fed rate increase (now yielding 4.30% and 4.52%). Perhaps anticipating higher inflation?
Daily yield table, Dec 2024
One approach is not to be too greedy. If one is satisfied with 4.3% for three years, one can go with that and not look back.
Another approach is to go short term (giving up almost no yield at the moment), with the hope that longer term rates won't reverse course and drop. If that plays out and short term rates resume falling, one can switch horses (to multi-year bonds/CDs) and pick up the same (or better) rates as now.
This requires keeping a closer eye on rates and the economy so as not to get caught flat footed if rates drop across all maturities.
2- and 10-year treasury yields (since July)

2- and 10-year treasury yields compared with 1-month treasury yield (since July)

Junk still looks good. Also leveraged loans, bank loans. Stay very short on duration.

Ironically these higher risk bonds did much better than the safer investment grade bonds. As long as labor market stays healthy one can expect this trend continues in 2025, until inflation ticks upward. What would Powell do when fewer cuts are anticipated in 2025 ? Or will he kicks the can down the road for the next FED ?

Speaking of Schwab, I just purchased a Treasury (91282CAY7) paying 4.338 out to 11/30/27. There's also a fair number of similar offerings there on Schwab.
The purchase was financed by selling an equivalent amount of SUTXX, which was 4.92% on 9/30/24, but is now down to 4.39% and seems to be heading lower. Trying to maximize income is a fine balance between SUTXX which is presently paying a bit more (but is not guaranteed to continue that), and Treasury/CD, which is presently paying a bit less (but is guaranteed to maturity.)
Notes:
• The SUTXX percentages are 7-day yields at the times noted.
• Our Fixed Income ladder is now 52% Treasury and 48% CDs, extending out to January 2028.
• Fixed Income is now 42% of total income; MMKT Income is 58%.

4.3% nonCallable Cds have virtually disappeared for now. Doubtful they will reappear anytime soon. I had a Bank CD mature, and I decided to reinvest it back into a 12month CD at the same bank, at 4%. Schwab brokerage CDs do not look very attractive at all, so I am inclined to just place any maturing brokerage CDs into MM funds for now. You can get callable CDs at Schwab for about 4.5%, with the first call date being in about 6 months