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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Some depends on what you need. Low-lying lake shore area here. Can’t pick up any of the locals due to nearby hills + forest - even with a substantial tower mounted antenna. I’ll bet most of you folks can receive your locals. Not that the locals are that great. But if you want the major networks / local stations out here you need to subscribe to something.
    I’ve gone from DirectTV (rooftop dish receiver) to Hulu / Disney / ESPN (internet based) to UTubeTV (internet based) over the past 5 years. Prices fell with each change. UTube TV’s live TV package just jumped from $73 to $85. But it’s a very inclusive package with ESPN, TNT and lots of other sports channels. No complaint. Don’t mind commercials for regular programing. Hate for movies. Rent an occasional movie from Amazon Prime for $5 or buy the CD DVD used from E-Bay. Also, you can buy movies at Prime, save in your library and view them as often and for as long as you like.
    I haven’t noticed any difference in the number of commercials among the 3 sources I’ve tried. DirecTV was horrible to work with. Glad to be rid of them. Hulu / Disney were fine to deal with. The Hulu / Disney package included commercial free movies. But you tire of the Disney branded eventually.
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    What changed?
    The Dow doesn't matter as much because the SP500 is a weighted cap index. The best performing companies take a bigger share which is based on the price.
    How many 401K have the SP500 or VTI and how many have the DOW Jones? I have never seen the Dow and I looked at dozens over the last 3 decades...and for a good reason.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I cut the cable cord early this year and save a bunch of money. Mostly the same programming plus more. My bill was cut from ~220 with spectrum cable to about 89+55=144 for Hulu+ and Greenlight for internet (faster fiber optics). And yes, commercial free for movies, series and DVR'ed programs.
  • Maturing CDs
    raq,
    That's correct if someone has risky stuff, DT doesn't. I respect DT decisions and his choices.
    When I used to own both stocks and bonds, my bond funds were never the "safe" ones. My first bond fund that I bought in 2010 was PIMIX. Then, I prepared for my retirement in 2018. By the end of 2017, PIMIX was over 50% of my portfolio.
    All my funds must be top performers ALL the time in their category based on risk-adjusted performance.
    RPHIX vs MM. I'm with msf. As I said before, when rates fall, and they will eventually, RPHIX would do better.
    But, why stop with RPHIX? Let's look at DHEAX+CLOI. For one year...VMFXX(MM) made 5.3%...DHEAX made 9.1%...CLOI 8.2%. Both volatility max loss was -0.5%. See chart (https://schrts.co/zbSQiQxp).
    BTW, I've not been in the TR camp for years now. My portfolio volatility is very low, but performance is still good. I'm not arguing about CDs or not; just offering another option. I understand that this thread started as a CD one, but why not discuss the next step, especially when there is not much to talk about CDs?
  • Backmarket.com
    The best way of capitalism is to bring prices down. Apple does the opposite.
    I feel the same about MSFT 365. I'm never paying them for this if I could, and why I use the free Libre Office.
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    mark: Oh man, the Dow must matter to someone otherwise why is it still a market marker after all these years? Also I'm not so sure there are any serious analysts but there are motivated ones.
    There are other market markers but any time someone says THE MARKET it is the SP500 or VTI.
    YBB:Correlation between DJIA and SP500 is 95%
    Correlation still doesn't mean equal. Example: One year (as of 12/22/2024)...The Dow = 14.7%...VOO = 27.7% (https://schrts.co/gIHYNViK)
    For 5 years: The SP500 doubled the Dow (https://schrts.co/INEenHhQ)
  • Maturing CDs
    What OJ said!
    4% guaranteed interest is our threshold vs bond OEFs. 5+% is pretty much nirvana.
    We SOLD ALL bond OEFs when CP CDs reached these ^ levels and have not (yet) turned back. We have a 5-yr, CP CD ladder still yielding a wee bit over 5%.
    With interest rates, all investors EVER know are the current rates and the current trends. About a year or so ago, CP CD rates were 5+% and the trend was DOWN.
    So we loaded up on them at that time, avoiding the reasonably predictable dilemma faced by CD investors with currently maturing CDs.
    Not saying we were right and they were wrong, just saying what our strategy was/is, and that it has worked out exceptionally well for us.
  • Maturing CDs
    For my measly 10% cash position I ended up splitting it 50/50 between Fido’s SPAXX and JAAA.
    Can’t get excited about cash, but understand the appeal to some. I’d have to have a much shorter life expectancy then I currently presume not to take a bit of risk in upper tier HY, convertibles, arbitrage, preferred, and short-intermediate duration IG corporates. I don’t like longer dated bonds. It’s not that I think they’re a bad investment. Just that unless you can tell me where rates will be a year or more out, it’s impossible to know what longer dated bonds’ prospects are. Becomes a question of: “Where would you rather assume some risk?”
    A great discussion. You guys really get “into the weeds” splicing and dicing the different cash options.
    Admirable.
    BTW - In case you haven’t looked, the 10-Year spiked sharply again today, now above 4.58%.
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    Correlation between DJIA and SP500 is 95%. Of course, WSJ/Barron's/NWS and SPGI have interests in pushing DJIA.
  • Maturing CDs
    I appreciate your interest in low stress places to put cash for 2-3 years. Different people have different objectives and that leads to different choices - as you said, that is okay.
    2-3 year brokered CDs (callable) paying no more than 4.6%. A non-callable 2 year Treasury (coupon 4.25%) is expected to yield 4.3% at auction. In a taxable account, the Treasury note yields a similar amount after tax if your state has an income tax. And it comes without call risk.
    Though the Treasury has reinvestment risk every six months on its coupon payment. OTOH, the CD has reinvestment risk on its principal if the CD is called. I find the former less stressful (not much cash is subject to reinvestment risk). You may feel differently - it's a matter of personal preference.
    It is true that RPHIX did not return more than 4% before 2023. I suggest that a better way of looking at it is how much it outperformed cash. According to Portfolio Visualizer, it usually beat cash by 3/4% or more, with larger margins coming in years when cash returned under 2%. So it is not surprising that RPHIX has not exceeded 4% until recently. Cash has not exceeded 3% until recently.
    Portfolio Visualizer comparing RPHIX and ^CASHUS.
    The question becomes: what do you expect cash to do? You've answered that. You expect cash to be flat or drop slightly. (Not saying this is right or wrong - no one really knows - just restating your perspective.)
    Cash (as represented by 3 mo T-bills) is currently (12/20/24) yielding 4.34%. Lop off another 1/2% (assume the Fed "aggressively" cuts rates), and we're looking at 3.8% next year. Conservatively, add 1/2% for the RPHIX yield. That comes to 4.3%. This is not the worst possible case, but a fair estimate of the worst reasonably possible case.
    It looks like RPHIX won't do much worse than a CD and could do better. Should short term rates plummet beyond what I suggested above, then the CD will get called.
    Either way, for me I find RPHIX less stressful. Fully liquid and no need for a plan B if the CD is called. You may not care much about those factors (i.e. they don't cause you stress) and find yield volatility vis a vis a CD stressful.
    I just finished a 3 year electricity contract - no stress. I'm now on a 9 month contract - more stress. There's something to be said for locking in rates. Everyone is different, and each situation presents its own types of stress.
    [CD rates from Schwab and Fidelity. Treasury expected yield from Fidelity.]
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    "10 consecutive days down"
    The 24/7 media is always looking to make more than it is. The DOW was down 10 days.
    Does any serious analyst look at the DOW? No, they watch the SP500.
    When the DOW goes down over 1000 points, the media loves to say it was 4 digits down. mmm...what is 1000 points? less than 2.5%
    Does 10 days matter? not so much, you got to look at much longer risk/reward.
  • Maturing CDs
    Although this thread is about CDs, the bond oef RPHIX keeps getting mentioned as a viable alternative. I was a bond oef, momentum investor before I sold all my bond oefs in 2020. RPHIX produced a consistent TR of 1% to 3% almost every year before 2023. In 2023 and 2024, it had a TR of slightly over 5%. I invested in CDs during 2024 that made about the same as RPHIX. I still own a large number of CDs paying over 5%. As a previous bond oef investor, I do not believe RPHIX will make over 5% in 2025, but instead I expect it to have a TR in the 3 to 4% range. I can get that in 2025 wirh callable CDs with no stress, so I am not inclined to use RPHIX for my very conservative portfolio when CDs will produce comparable or better TR, with less risk. If I want a solid investment for the next 2 to 3 years of at least 4%, I will invest in a noncallable CD that pays 4%, not RPHIX with no history of making 4% except for 2023 and 2024. I am well aware that posters/investors who are opposed to CDs will likely not agree with me--that is okay!
  • Maturing CDs
    "tariffs could add to the prices of imported goods"
    While this is of course true, it's one of those boilerplate constructions that doesn't prompt one to think about the ordinary stuff used daily that has a large "imported" component. I'm thinking about that because I just read a report in The Guardian concerning Florida orange production. Here's an excerpt from that report:
    "another hyperactive hurricane season, paired with the dogged persistence of an untreatable tree disease known as greening, has left a once thriving citrus industry on life support.
    Only 12m boxes of oranges will have been produced in Florida by the end of this year... the lowest single-year yield in almost a century. The figure is 33% lower than a year ago, and less than 5% of the 2004 harvest of 242m boxes. It is also dwarfed by the 378m boxes expected to be produced this year in Brazil, the world’s largest grower and exporter of oranges."
    So my morning glass of orange juice may be expected to cost 25% more in a few months if our new improved executive branch has it's way. How many other "everyday" products have a significant import component, and how much knowledge of or attention to detail does anyone expect our new improved executive branch to actually have?
    And inflation is going to go down??
  • Maturing CDs
    PAAA. Per it's last distributions, it's close to 4.7% on an annual basis
    That's about right when one takes the last monthly distribution yield and compounds 12 times (12 months/year). The figure is as of the end of Nov (record date 11/29, ex date 12/2). FWIW, I get 4.706%.
    Fidelity shows FSIXX having a compound annual yield of 4.61% as of the end of Nov.
    After subtracting state taxes (say, 5.29% for GA in 2025), PAAA yields about 4.46%. The Treasury MMF seems the better choice for now: higher after (state) tax yield, underlying securities backed by the US Treasury, zero volatility (stable $1 price).
    When rates start to go down, MM/CD/treasuries will be far behind
    It matter what you mean by "rates". As the Van Eck piece you cited says: "Since the current rate cutting cycle began in September, long term yields have increased ... as of [10/31/2024]."
    Intermediate term rates have also been increasing since September (as noted in my post above).
    It's mainly short term rates that have declined since September. And with them, so have PAAA yields. PAAA's latest div is about 20% below that at the end of Aug or Sept, while its share price has risen slightly - meaning that the actual yield has dropped more than 20%.
    In comparison, FSIXX's divs have dropped just 14% or so over the same span. PAAA's (after tax) yield seems to be getting left behind as short term rates have fallen.
    All of this could change as the Fed takes a breather on lowering the fed funds rate. Especially if inflation doesn't come down further. Food and energy price declines may not materialize and tariffs could add to the prices of imported goods.
  • Maturing CDs
    DT: I qualified for SNAXX in 2020 in my IRA account, when I met the $1 million investment requirements, but have to use SWVXX for my taxable holdings because I did not have enough money to qualify for SNAXX
    Easy solution. In 2020+2022 I held MM at Schwab. I purchased SNAXX in 2020 in my rollover(=trad) IRA. Then I transferred one share from TIRA to Roth IRA and from Roth one share to my taxable.
    I actually also bought at that time SUTXX+SCOXX and transferred to all accounts because when risk is very high, I like the safer options.
    =============
    The older I get and more money I have, the more conservation I get, but no CD/treasuries for me so far. I still use MM when risk is very high and I'm out of market.
    CLOs had one of the best opportunities I have seen for years. I still in them heavily. Great performance with very low volatility. I looked at PAAA. Per it's last distributions, it's close to 4.7% on an annual basis.
    CLOZ, one of the lower-rated CLOs, made over 20% in just 1.5 years.
    Portfolio Managers John Kerschner, Nick Childs, and Jessica Shill discuss why they believe the strategic case for AAA CLOs remains compelling amid Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts.
    (https://www.janushenderson.com/en-us/advisor/article/do-aaa-clos-still-make-sense-in-a-declining-rate-environment/)
    Another CLOs link (https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/income-investing/why-clos-still-make-sense-when-the-fed-cuts-rates/)
    RPHIX should be a no-brainer.
    When rates start to go down, MM/CD/treasuries will be far behind.
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    alarm set for about 10 years
    Now just 9½ years.
    The public perception may have changed too about their fairness or unfairness.
    It seems to me that it did, and in a rather curious way. Despite current antipathy toward "freeloading" government workers and government in general (there's a reason why Congress' pay raise was dropped from the CR), the unfair treatment of government workers was used effectively to garner support for eliminating WEP and GPO.
    I find it interesting to compare the relative success (though it took years) in revoking these laws with the failed effort of Social Security notch babies to get more benefits for themselves. In both cases, it seemed that the loudest supporters of change were those who would directly benefit.
    One difference is the size of the groups who stood to gain. Notch babies were just those workers born between 1917 and 1921. There are many more government workers. And they are still alive and apparently kicking.
    Another difference is the matter of fairness. With WEP, most workers affected received less than their fair share of benefits. (Under WEP some high earners got more than their fair share, though less than they will receive now.) In contrast, all notch babies received more than their fair share; they just got less of a windfall than those born before 1917. That was their gripe.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/quinn/columns/030299.htm
    Here's a paper with everything you wanted to know (and more) about the flaws in WEP and GPO and how two proposals could reduce (IMHO extinguish) inequities. TL; DR (19 page pdf).
    https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v79n3/v79n3p1.html (HTML format)
    https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v79n3/v79n3p1.pdf (pdf format)
  • WealthTrack Show
    Dec 21st Episode:
    First Eagle Global Fund’s Matthew McLennan is finding value in unexpected places and holding gold for stability in an uncertain world.
    https://wealthtrack.com/investing-in-a-high-risk-world/
    I’d disagree that gold provides “stability.” 50% can lob-off the price of the metal in a matter of months. There have been 3-year stretches in our lifetimes during which miners have tanked 70% or more. And they call that ”stability”?
    True - if man manages to annihilate himself gold would soar in value. But who would want spend it - and whatfor?
  • Anarchy Begins: Republican spending bill to avert government shutdown fails in House
    Thanks @AndyJ for finding a current (less than 1 day old) write about this legislation. This article clears the confusion about the bill going back to the House for another vote. I wasn't able to finish viewing C-SPAN as to what took place.
    We watched Gabriella Miller speak (on MSNBC) about her legislation, which I recall had 5 separate pieces. She had a large face slap for awhile, when this was removed. She doesn't operate a 'power house' organization for this; but more of a low profile, grass roots type of operation doing battle against the LARGE, opposition money.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    ADD: A reported gauge monitored by the FED, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) slowed somewhat, may have helped support positive pricing on Friday for bond NAVs, via lower yields.
    ADD #2: MANY BOND funds had distributions this week, which should be reflected in this weeks numbers, as provided by their sources.
    ADD #3: This is directed towards possibilities into the new government period arriving January 20, and monetary/fiscal actions.
    --- Bond vigilantes are investors who sell government bonds or threaten to do so to force policy changes and discipline excessive government spending:
    --- Explanation
    Bond vigilantes use their market power to drive up borrowing costs for the government. This can happen when they protest against expansionary monetary or fiscal policy.
    --- Origin
    The term was coined by economist Ed Yardeni in the 1980s to describe traders who sold Treasury bonds to protest Federal Reserve policies that were considered too inflationary.
    --- Example
    In the "Great Bond Massacre" from 1993 to 1994, US 10-year yields increased from 5.2% to over 8% due to concerns about federal spending. The Clinton administration and Congress responded by reducing the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to around 4% by 1998.
    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
    FIRST: NOTHING TO ADD/ALTER regarding 'Never-Never Land'. The pre-DC world shift of January, 2025 remains 'interesting' at this time! We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
    W/E December 20 , 2024. Bond NAV's Another HEAD SLAP for most + distributions
    --- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find most bond sectors HAD ANOTHER HEAD SLAP for this week's pricing. The majority of bond sectors were down all day, with FRIDAY being the exception day. All durations pricing were down every day of the week. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was mostly DOWN. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
    A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.

    NEXT:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, December 16 - December 20, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.37% yield (Unchanged for the week). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a negative .05 - .07% basis change in yield for the week.
    --- AGG = -.66% / +1.37% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.08% / +5.77% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.04% / +3.66 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.45% / +1.63% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.82% / -.46% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -1.00% / +1.64% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.37% / +4.50% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.45% / +4.07% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -2.24% / -4.31% (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -1.66% / -7.03% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -2.31% / -11.54% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -2.69% / -14.46% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +3.69% / +24.74% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -5.66% / -33.51% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -.72% / +1.95% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- USFR = +.12% / +5.31% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
    --- LQD = -1.25% / +.99% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- MBB = -.59% / +1.29% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
    --- BKLN = -.24% / +7.84% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.53% / +7.87 % (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = -1.40%/+3.49% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = -.73% /+.93% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -1.21%/+5.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -2.16% / +11.59% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -.88% / +7.96% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.37% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch