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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Why Gold Will Lose Its Luster
    Another clickbait article.
    The LT is great, but there are opportunities, and gold was one of them.
    Buffett often spoke critically about gold — and for decades, he took a similar stance on high-tech stocks. Yet eventually, he bought Apple, which at one point made up more than 40% of his portfolio.
    Quote:
    a dollar in the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested would have grown to nearly $1 million and small-capitalization stocks to almost $5 million.
    mmm...Since 2010, small-cap stocks have significantly underperformed compared to the QQQ — the Nasdaq 100 has delivered about 3.7 times higher returns.
    (https://schrts.co/vaYbxZFV)
  • Alert on Fund ERs
    BDC and REITs may have similarities for investors
    Isn't the point of publishing ERs in a prospectus to inform investors?
    but they have different business structure, so they have different treatments by SEC.

    They usually do not fall under the Investment Company Act of 1940 because of what they hold, not because of their structure. (If they hold enough securities, they will be subject to the Act.)
    https://www.troutman.com/insights/reits-investment-structures-and-investment-company-status/
    In any case, this says how REIT fees come to be excluded from AFFEs (acquired fund fee expenses). But it doesn't justify their exclusion. If there's a rationale for REIT fees to be excluded, the same rationale would seem to apply to BDCs. Conversely, if Zweig or others believe that BDC expenses should be included, that same belief would seem to apply to REITs.
    ==============================
    Warning - the remainder is legal gobbledegook of interest primarily to geeks.
    BDCs are RICs (registered investment companies) under 1940 ICA (Invest company Act).
    As a technical matter, BDCs are not registered investment companies. However, they elect to be subject to many of the regulations applicable to registered investment companies.
    https://www.investor.gov/introduction-investing/general-resources/news-alerts/alerts-bulletins/investor-bulletins/publicly-traded-business-development-companies-bdcs-investor-bulletin
    This election applies to tax regulations, not expense reporting regulations:
    Most BDCs elect to be treated as a regulated investment company (RIC), which provides for pass-through tax treatment of net income. BDC dividend payments to shareholders are not subject to entity-level tax on distributed income. In this manner, a BDC operates like a real estate investment trust (REIT) or master limited partnership (MLP) that offers access to the ownership of real estate assets and energy assets, respectively, and passes through investment income.
    https://www.blueowlcapitalcorporation.com/about-blue-owl-capital-corp/what-is-a-bdc
    See also: 12 USC § 1820a(d)(6) (registered investment company), Westlaw Glossary (RIC - regulated investment company), 26 USC § 851(a) (tax code definition of regulated investment company, BDC special clause).
    SEC Final Rule 33-8713 (2006) p. 40 is what creates the AFFE requirement. It applies to all investment companies, not just ones registered under the '40 Act.
    “Acquired Fund” means any company in which the Fund invests or has invested during the relevant fiscal period that ... is an investment company ...
    Form N-1A instruction 3(f)(i)
    So what's an investment company?
    “investment company” means any issuer which—
    (A)is or holds itself out as being engaged primarily, or proposes to engage primarily, in the business of investing, reinvesting, or trading in securities;
    (B)is engaged or proposes to engage in the business of issuing face-amount certificates of the installment type, or has been engaged in such business and has any such certificate outstanding; or
    (C)is engaged or proposes to engage in the business of investing, reinvesting, owning, holding, or trading in securities, and owns or proposes to acquire investment securities having a value exceeding 40 per centum of the value of such issuer’s total assets (exclusive of Government securities and cash items) on an unconsolidated basis.
    15 U.S. Code § 80a-3(a)(1)
    BDCs fit this definition even though they're not registered investment companies. But then, so can SPACs (pre-acquisition). Yet their costs aren't counted in AFFEs.
    The principal regulation for investment funds in the United States is the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“ICA”). It applies to any company that is “engaged primarily” in the business of investing in securities. Because SPACs invest 100% of their assets in securities prior to their acquisitions, many of them qualify as investment companies under this definition.
    Robert Jackson and Joh Morely, SPACs as Investment Funds, Wharton (July 14, 2022)
    SEC position on SPACs as subject to '40 Act ("it depends")
    https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2024/03/05/final-rules-on-spac-ipos-and-de-spacs/
    REITs, BDCs, SPACs. From an investor perspective, what's the difference? And fundamentally, should any indirect costs be explicitly reported, especially if they aren't included (except implicitly) in financial reports?
  • America needs to get SERIOUS !!! about China's tech rise dominance. Cranial/Rectal inversion in D.C.
    How China Powers Its Electric Cars and High-Speed Trains
    image
    In China, the longest ultrahigh-voltage power line stretches more than 2,000 miles from the far northwest to the populous southeast — the equivalent of transmitting electricity from Idaho to New York City.
    The power line starts in a remote desert in northwest China, where vast arrays of solar panels and wind turbines generate electricity on a monumental scale. It snakes southeast, following an ancient river between mountain ranges before reaching Anhui Province near Shanghai, home to 61 million people and some of China’s most successful electric car and robot manufacturers.
    That’s a single power line. China has 41 others. Each is capable of carrying more electricity than any utility transmission line in the United States. That’s partly because China is using technology that makes its lines far more efficient than almost anywhere else in the world.
    ==================
    Beijing’s expansion of its power grid contrasts sharply with President Trump’s “Drill, baby, drill” approach of doubling down on fossil fuels and rolling back federal programs to spur greater use of clean energy.
    In July, the Energy Department terminated its commitment to provide a $4.9 billion loan guarantee for construction of the Grain Belt Express power line to take wind power from Kansas to cities in Illinois and Indiana. That 800-mile ultrahigh-voltage line, which would have covered a shorter distance than dozens of lines already built in China, ran into criticism from rural landowners and Republican lawmakers.
    Many of China’s ultrahigh-voltage lines use direct current technology, which allows them to carry electricity for long distances with barely any of the transmission losses that affect most high-power lines in other countries.
    China’s more efficient power lines have broad consequences for the global race against climate change. They will help determine how quickly China can reduce its world-leading use of coal, a stain on the country’s clean energy track record. China uses as much coal as the entire rest of the world, and emits more greenhouse gases than the United States and the European Union combined.
    ==================
    China already consumes twice as much electricity as the United States. By 2050, China plans to triple its count of ultrahigh-voltage routes. The most recent public Chinese data, from the end of 2024, showed 19 lines transmitting power at 800 kilovolts. Another 22 lines operated at 1,000 kilovolts. One of them, the behemoth terminating in Guquan, transmits enough electricity at 1,100 kilovolts to power more than seven million American households or 40 million to 50 million Chinese households.
    To put the scale of China’s power grid build out in perspective, consider that the United States has a handful of 765-kilovolt lines and a few running at 500 kilovolts or less. The 765-kilovolt lines together total about 2,000 miles — the length of a single line across China.
    Construction of the power lines has helped China reduce its emissions of toxic air pollution and greenhouse gases. A University of Chicago analysis of satellite data, released in August, found that air pollution in China had plunged 41 percent since 2014. That added almost two years to the country’s average life expectancy.
    The above is excerpted from a current report in The New York Times. (Not a free link.)
    (Text emphasis added.)
  • Alert on Fund ERs
    WSJ has a feature on SEC allowing some funds with fund-of-funds structure (TDFs, others?) to EXCLUDE BDC ERs from fund ERs.
    Idea seems to encourage funding for young startups funded through business development companies (BDCs).
    But why just BDCs?
    There is concern that once an exception is created for BDCs, other exceptions may follow - private-equity/credit, etc. Then, the fund ERs may become misleading or unreliable. Supporters say that the info would still be in the prospectuses, but how many read those? And fund related websites may just report misleading headline ERs, not true ERs. Watch how this is handled by Morningstar (M*), Yahoo Finance, Portfolio Visualizer (PV), TestFol, MFO Premium (MFOP), etc.
    Right now, fund brokerage costs are not included in ERs - they are now found only in fund SAIs, not in prospectuses.
    Leverage, shorting and derivatives related costs are included in ERs - may be CEFs, leveraged ETFs and Pimco will lobby to change that.
    https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/congress-thinks-hiding-fund-fees-is-good-for-you-0e12c541?mod=mhp
  • I guess he didn’t learn from liberation day!
    Seriously,,, how many more bad days leading to bad decisions leading to worse and worse outcomes can this country take? Or,,,how long till the blind 45% open their eyes? Sure, he tells them it’s ok to hate the others but when they can’t afford healthcare and food will that snap them out of voting against their self interest? I don’t have a clue. But each week he gets worse.
  • American Century Small Cap Value will reopen to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/908186/000090818625000099/accpscv497-10102025.htm
    497 1 accpscv497-10102025.htm 497
    American Century Capital Portfolios, Inc.
    Summary Prospectus and Prospectus Supplement
    Small Cap Value Fund
    newaci_logoblkg97a.jpg
    Supplement dated October 10, 2025 n Summary Prospectus and Prospectus dated August 1, 2025
    As of December 9, 2025, the fund will be open to all investors.
    The following changes are effective on December 9, 2025:
    The first paragraph under Purchase and Sale of Fund Shares on page 5 of the summary prospectus and the prospectus is deleted.
    The section entitled Closed Fund Policies on page 18 of the prospectus is deleted.
  • 2025 Tax estimating tool
    As of a week or two, the main Dinkytown site has been updated for the $6000 Senior Deductiion. I didn't check to see if other sites that the Dinkytown calculator has been updated.
    I see it now, it’s called “Enhanced deduction for seniors” and separate from the standard deduction. Thx!
    FYI - Single or Head of Household: The deduction is reduced for a MAGI over $75,000 and phases out completely at $175,000.
    Married Filing Jointly: The deduction is reduced for a MAGI over $150,000 and phases out completely at $250,000.
  • Peter Lynch with Joshua Brown
    @bee
    I looked at material Check Capital sent about their returns since 2000 through 3/31/2025.
    They give cumulative and annualized returns for both of their fee programs, the fee based at 1% per year or the 10% of profits only
    Cumulative 10% has done a little better 590% vs 554% or 7.95% per year vs 7.72%
  • Trump officials cancel major solar project in latest hit to renewable energy
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Esmeralda 7 in Nevada would have produced enough energy to power 2m homes
    The Trump administration has killed a huge proposed solar power project in Nevada that would have been one of the largest in the world, indicating that the White House plans to attack not only wind power but all renewable energy.
    On Thursday, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) changed the status of the Esmeralda 7 project to say its environmental review has been “cancelled”, the climate publication Heatmap first reported.
    The super project in southern Nevada was set to cover 185 sq miles – a footprint close to the size of Las Vegas – and include seven solar projects proposed by different companies, including NextEra Energy Resources, Leeward Renewable Energy, Arevia Power and Invenergy. Together, the network of solar panels and batteries was set to produce 6.2 gigawatts of energy, enough to power nearly 2m homes.
    Asked to comment, the interior department appeared to leave open the possibility that at least parts of the project could be resubmitted for review. In an email, a spokesperson said: “During routine discussions prior to the lapse in appropriations, the proponents and BLM agreed to change their approach for the Esmeralda 7 Solar Project in Nevada. Instead of pursuing a programmatic level environmental analysis, the applicants will now have the option to submit individual project proposals to the BLM to more effectively analyze potential impacts.”
    In an executive order on day one, Trump directed a pause on new renewable energy authorizations for federally owned land and water. Then in February he appointed Kathleen Sgamma, president of the Colorado-based oil industry trade group Western Energy Alliance, to head the BLM, which manages a quarter of a billion acres of public land concentrated in western states.
    In July, as part of an attempt to win support for his tax and spending bill, Trump issued another order aimed at halting renewable projects, which called on the Department of the Interior to review its policies that affect wind and solar, and gave the interior secretary, Doug Burgum, final decision-making power on whether such projects could proceed.
    The following month, the president said his administration would not approve solar or wind power projects. “We will not approve wind or farmer destroying Solar,” he posted on Truth Social. “The days of stupidity are over in the USA!!!”

    Comment: In actuality, "the days of stupidity in the USA" are well under way.
  • Are PM prices near their peak?
    Howdy folks,
    The dollar has exhibited some strength but there is more at play with regard to the makeup of reserves of the central banks around the world. This has been something that is different this time. The dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades but the first crack in the armor was when Russia invaded Ukraine and the US froze some of their assets that were in dollars. The rest of the world said, "WTF!?!" and started looking at ways to reduce their greenback reserves, on the margin, relative to other assets. Note, there has never been a threat of a massive selloff of dollar reserves as it would crash the price and no one wants that. Also, there are a LOT of asset choices to choose from (e.g. other currencies, crypto, and gold).
    https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-10-09/brazil-buys-16-tonnes-gold-september-central-bank-demand-stays-strong
    and so it goes,
    peace,
    rono
  • trump threatens massive tariff increases on China
    @catch22 this is his second 'routine annual physical' of the year, which NOBODY in 'perfect' health would do. I'm thinking tests or scans like an MRI/colonoscopy since the WH medical unit can do pretty much anything else (eg drug infusions) except surgery. Of course they'll never tell us what's actually going on, because of Donnie's fragile ego and fetish for 'optics'.
    Hell, even if he dies, they'll put out statements about he's "entering a 'deep and passive meditative state' in solitude to develop amazing beautiful new initiatives to Make America Great Again" or some-such.
    re tariffs, Donnie Sundown doesn't understand how the modern world works. His mind is trapped in the '50s (19 or 18, depending on the issue) where 'manufacturing' was America's heyday, so in his mind the US is exceptional and doesn't need anything from anyone. Sadly, the world changed, but he didn't, or even bother to learn about it.
  • trump threatens massive tariff increases on China
    Love it - Love it - it will reduce our debt/deficit. Majority of the people don't know that tariff is paid by them in one form or the other. We don't need 50 dolls, just 5 is enough, ah will reduce the collection from dolls but very sure we will pay enough where the need is not discretionary.
  • trump threatens massive tariff increases on China
    Early and short article.
    Equities, of course; getting a head bang and 'most' bonds happy; at the moment.
    Active global ETF list for viewing through the day and for market closings.
    Two side notes: he is likely very dismayed with the Nobel Peace Prize award and his visit to Walter Reed for a 'checky-checky'.
  • Otter Creek Focus Strategy ETF will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811030/000089418925010867/ottercreekfocusstrategyetf.htm
    497 1 ottercreekfocusstrategyetf.htm 497E
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 033-12213; 811-05037
    Otter Creek Focus Strategy ETF (the “Fund”)
    Ticker: OCFS
    Listed on NYSE Arca, Inc.
    a series of Professionally Managed Portfolios (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated October 9, 2025
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    each dated February 28, 2025
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Professionally Managed Portfolios, based upon the recommendation of Otter Creek Advisors, LLC (the “Advisor”), the investment advisor to the Fund, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed to new purchases, except for purchases made through an automatic investment program or the reinvestment of any distributions, as of the close of business on October 9, 2025 (the “Closing Date”) and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on October 30, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    The Board approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated. Pursuant to the Plan and in anticipation of the Fund’s liquidation, the Fund will be closed to new purchases, except for purchases made through an automatic investment program or a purchase exception that is approved by Trust officers, effective as of the close of business on the Closing Date, after which the Fund’s assets may be entirely invested in money market instruments or held in cash or cash equivalents. Accordingly, the Fund will no longer be pursuing its investment objective. Any distributions declared to shareholders of the Fund after the Closing Date and until the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on the Liquidation Date will be automatically reinvested in additional shares of the Fund unless a shareholder specifically requests that such distributions be paid in cash. Although the Fund will be closed to new purchases as of the Closing Date, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund until the Liquidation Date, as described in “How to Sell Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date after the Fund has paid or provided for all taxes, expenses, and any other liabilities, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of Fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax advisor for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    The Advisor will bear all of the expenses incurred in carrying out the Plan.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 1-800-617-0004.
    * * * * *
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • Otter Creek Long/Short Opportunity Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811030/000089418925010868/ottercreeklongshortopportu.htm
    497 1 ottercreeklongshortopportu.htm 497E
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 033-12213; 811-05037
    Otter Creek Long/Short Opportunity Fund (the “Fund”)
    Institutional Class – Ticker: OTTRX
    Investor Class – Ticker: OTCRX
    a series of Professionally Managed Portfolios (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated October 9, 2025
    to the Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information
    each dated February 28, 2025
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Professionally Managed Portfolios, based upon the recommendation of Otter Creek Advisors, LLC (the “Advisor”), the investment advisor to the Fund, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interest of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed to new purchases, except for purchases made through an automatic investment program or the reinvestment of any distributions, as of the close of business on October 9, 2025 (the “Closing Date”) and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on October 30, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    The Board approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated. Pursuant to the Plan and in anticipation of the Fund’s liquidation, the Fund will be closed to new purchases, except for purchases made through an automatic investment program or a purchase exception that is approved by Trust officers, effective as of the close of business on the Closing Date, after which the Fund’s assets may be entirely invested in money market instruments or held in cash or cash equivalents. Accordingly, the Fund will no longer be pursuing its investment objective. Any distributions declared to shareholders of the Fund after the Closing Date and until the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on the Liquidation Date will be automatically reinvested in additional shares of the Fund unless a shareholder specifically requests that such distributions be paid in cash. Although the Fund will be closed to new purchases as of the Closing Date, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund until the Liquidation Date, as described in “How to Sell Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date after the Fund has paid or provided for all taxes, expenses, and any other liabilities, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of Fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax advisor for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    The Advisor will bear all of the expenses incurred in carrying out the Plan.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 1-855-681-5261.
    * * * * *
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
  • Rick Rieder under consideration
    Typically, Fed Chairs also leave the Fed when their Chair term expires. But there have been some cases when Fed Chair stayed on as Fed Governor.
    Powell has not commented on whether he will stay on or leave after his Fed Chair term expires in 05/2026. His Fed Governor term is to 01/2028.
    BTW, Barr remained as Fed Governor after he resigned (01/2025) his Fed VC-Supervision position to make room for Bowman (confirmed 05/2025) - some say under pressure.
  • 2025 Tax estimating tool
    Speaking of underpayment - what’s the verdict if you pay quarterly some amount but then take an IRA withdrawal in December and up your estimated in December & March accordingly? I’ll research.
    Research shows - General rule: You can avoid an underpayment penalty for 2025 if you pay at least 100% of your 2024 tax liability.
    4th quater estimate is due Jan 15th of the following year. You can skip this estimate altogether if if you file your taxes (including payment) by Feb 1 (Feb 2, 2026 for this year's taxes).
    In the case of uneven income, you can pay estimates in each quarter according to the amount of income in the quarter. So if you take a large IRA distribution in December, you're allowed to make your routine 1Q-3Q estimates and only increase your 4Q estimate. That will entail filing a Schedule AI (annualized income) as part of your Form 2210.
    https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040es.pdf
    IMHO it's one of the more painful forms as you need to determine how much income you received each quarter. Your 1099s and W2s aren't going to help with this; you need to keep track of paychecks (including when bonuses were paid), interest (including short term CDs and T-bills that pay out all their interest at maturity), divs that vary monthly, etc. You don't just divide by 4.
    The 100% (or 110%) safe harbor requires you to pay the same estimate each quarter, or front load (pay more than required up front and then less later in the year).