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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • U.S. Government Defaults
    He left out the 5th, or first one, which occurred toward the end of the War of 1812. Lenders in New England were issued short term bills toward the end of the war. It was not possible to redeem them at the time the war ended, and for some years thereafter; there was nothing in the till (the notes had to be paid in gold and there wasn't any).
    IIRC, the notes weren't paid until 1820 or so, and by awarding shares in the newly formed 2nd Bank of the US, not gold.
    History buffs can read the Report of the Secretary of the Treasury for those years; look on FRASER or hathitrust.org
  • Tyson Foods Stock Slumps / Chickens on the Rise
    STORY
    Yuppers! The package pictured in the linked story is actually a decent product when you’re in a hurry and just want to pop something in the microwave. And chicken tends to be lower in calories than beef. However, been passing it up on trips to the grocery. A year ago the 22-ounce package could be had for between 6 and 7 dollars. Now it’s around $11 for same product. Expensive bird!
    I do know that table corn, which usually sells for 25 cents a cob this time of year, has been going for as much as $1 apiece this summer. And ISTM chicks like to eat corn (the cheaper “field corn“ variety). Why we invest - To maintain the purchasing power of our money over time.
    (It appears both Barron’s and the WSJ have more extensive coverage on Tyson. However, am unable to link them.)
    Related Story: Wacky Reason Price of Chicken is on the Rise
  • John Hancock Absolute Return Currency Fund changes
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1331971/000113322822005289/jhfiiarcf-html5301_497.htm
    497 1 jhfiiarcf-html5301_497.htm JHF II ABSOLUTE RETURN CURRENCY FUND_497
    Prospectus Supplement
    John Hancock Funds II
    John Hancock Absolute Return Currency Fund (the Fund)
    Supplement dated August 8, 2022 to all current Prospectuses, the Summary Prospectus and the Statement of Additional Information (SAI), as may be supplemented
    The following information supplements and supersedes any information to the contrary relating to all classes of shares offered by the Fund contained in the Prospectuses, Summary Prospectus and SAI.
    First Quadrant, LLC (First Quadrant), the subadvisor to the Fund, announced on June 16, 2022 that it has entered into an agreement with Systematica Investments Limited (Systematica), under which Systematica would acquire First Quadrant. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2022. Announcement of the transaction and the impending change in ownership at First Quadrant triggered an extensive due diligence review process by John Hancock Investment Management LLC, the Fund’s investment adviser, to understand the potential impact of the transaction on the Fund and the Fund’s ability to meet its investment objective. In connection with this process, effective after the close of business on September 6, 2022, shares of all classes of the Fund may no longer be purchased by new investors, except as noted below.
    1. Existing shareholders of the Fund as of the close of business on September 6, 2022 may continue to purchase additional shares of the Fund in their existing Fund accounts, and may continue to reinvest dividends or capital gains distributions received from the Fund.
    2. New accounts established with existing shares of the Fund by transfer, such as transfers because of a change in broker, transfer-in-kind, divorce, or death, will be permitted.
    3. Participants in group employer retirement plans, including 401(k), 403(b) and 457 plans, non-qualified deferred compensation, and health savings account programs (and their successor plans) (a “plan”) may establish an account in the Fund if the Fund has been approved by September 6, 2022 as an investment option under the plan (or under another plan sponsored by the same employer).
    4. Group retirement models or broker-dealer discretionary programs that include the Fund as an investment option, or have approved the Fund as an investment option as of September 6, 2022, may continue to make Fund shares available to new and existing accounts.
    If a shareholder redeems all Fund shares in his or her account, the shareholder will not be able to buy additional Fund shares or reopen his or her account.
    The Fund reserves the right to change or make exceptions to these policies at any time and may permit new accounts in the Fund to be opened by certain investors, including investors not identified above.
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Fund’s Prospectuses, Summary Prospectus and SAI and retain it for your future reference.
    Manulife, Manulife Investment Management, Stylized M Design, and Manulife Investment Management & Stylized M Design are trademarks of The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company and are used by its affiliates under license.
  • Your buy - sells July forward
    +1 Mark / 17.5% here. (5 or 6 different ones)
    But I think it all depends on the particular stocks and also achieving some balance between the sectors so they don’t all move in the same direction. I’m just a novice on that front, but I’m sure I have a few mutual funds - especially in the mining sector - that are way more volatile than most of the individual equities held.
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    ISTM Alternative funds occupy a bizarro corner of the investing universe. For lack of a better source, U.S. News does offer up a mixed platter of such funds. For those interested in return, checking the 5 year + return of some of these might give a clue as to what to expect over the next several years. (Better to look after a prolonged downdraft than when equity / bond markets are sky high)
    I don’t dwell on what any pocket of my allocation model will return. Total return over 3-5 years is the goal. At any specific time some assets giveth and others taketh away.
    One way to look at it … If inflation over the next 5 years averages 3% than a total (annual) return of 5% over that time might be good enough. But if inflation averages 10% over those 5 years, a 5% annual return would leave you standing in the dust. What will inflation be? Only The Shadow knows!
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    - “I’m not against alternative funds perse … But when do these winning alternative funds get mentioned? When do they come into MFO attention? - when they have already made their money. That's my point.”
    - “I'm sure there are some here that are good at adding value to their returns with their buys and sells. I dare say, I've looked at past data and I am not one of them. But I keep trying.”
    @MikeM - Be careful with the term “alternative fund”. Almost by definition it’s not classifiable. That’s because the word “alternative” essentially means “not something else”. However, as commonly referenced in investing “alternatives” are investments other than conventional stocks, cash or bonds. For instance, precious metals are sometimes cited as an alternative investment. So are things like art, comic books, stamps, real estate. The fund industry has jumped on the “alternative” bandwagon and concocted hundreds of variations to stock or bond funds under the banner of “alternative.” I have no problem with them applying the name alternative to whatever exotic high cost product they wish to market. I’m just saying - be careful with that term. To your point … we both lived through the madness here 10-15 years ago with MFLDX, an early alternative fund that soared as its fame and popularity rose and than nose-dived as investors fled overnight it seemed.
    I like the concept of alternatives as part of a portfolio - but apply the term loosely to fit my needs. In my 45% alternative sleeve, I have: a conservative allocation fund that overweights commodities a bit (ABRZX); a style permea fund that spreads risk around among stocks, precious, metals, natural resources, bonds (PRPFX); a multi-strategy fund (BAMBX); and a long-short fund (NLSAX). The other components consist of 3 individual stocks representing distinctly different market sectors. As stocks carry no fees, their inclusion helps offset the higher fees of the alternative funds. As you can see, I define the term “alternative” very loosely to fit my own needs.
    As far as ‘high” expenses go, I hold virtually none of the most expensive asset of all - cash. With inflation at 8-10% annually, cash is a guaranteed looser. Total allocation to all types of income oriented investments is 20% at present. Most is in DODLX and PRIHX. A smaller sum in GNMA etf. Only a trace resides in money market funds or bank accounts. So my use of alternatives is a way of maintaining some level of portfolio stability as needed at my age without carrying much cash.
    -
    I dunno about why folks buy and sell a lot. But I’d guess the results vary depending on what gets bought or sold and when. Markets have been ugly. If you can grab off a quick 1K or so playing Cathie’s musical chairs or taking some other gambit and than reinvest that $$ back into your regular portfolio, why not so indulge? :) Especially beneficial if the winnings are inside a Roth.
    With me the spec money ranges between 5-10% … play money really. Right now it’s committed to a couple inverse funds as a hedge against some really nasty rainy day - an insurance policy. And there’s a bit in GLTR - for mostly the same reason. Than, there’s my predilection to lay more money on the table when stocks appear cheaper and than pull it back off after they rebound. Might be what you’re seeing in other individuals as well.
    Glad you like your Schwab Robo Advisor Mike! Has to be far better than many of the “low risk” conservative funds nowadays. (Check out AOK)
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    @BaluBalu, NONE were in the ball park of what you mentioned.
    Barron's data was to 6/30/22 and all 5-yr performances were in the range 4.34-6.43%. A fair comparison may be with a simple 60-40 index-based target-risk fund such as VSMGX that had 4.95%.
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    @yogibearbull,12% or higher permanent cash is expensive. Barron's info is behind a paywall for me.
    5 yr performance for PRWCX, FBAKX, and VWELX is 11.5%, 10%, and 8%, respectively, per M* performance tab. Mine is 11%. (I would not have guessed VWELX would be so much lower.) I would consider 9.5% (inclusive of cash) for Schwab Robo acceptable for me. Is it?
  • Matthews Asia - New CEO
    Exactly. All the portfolio managers that left have been Teresa's age or younger. Firm has lost an entire generation of leaders on the investment team. Teresa is not that old herself, she's <50 years old if I had to guess? It's a really bad sign.
    Looking at the direction of the company, its not a surprise. Why stay on the proverbial sinking ship when your skill set is in high demand? Having felt the change there over the years, I'm not sure why matthews didn't make a leadership change sooner at the top. It almost seems too late at this point. You all might remember they brought in some outside leaders, but they ended up resigning or leaving after very short stints. Yu Ming Wang famously joined in 2020 as Global CIO/President, but resigned within 9 months. That is also a really bad sign and highly unusual. Actually I've never heard of such a thing happening.</i>
    https://www.pionline.com/money-management/matthews-asias-presidentglobal-cio-resigns
    @ProtonAnalyst33
    Hmmmmmm...... Through thick and thicker for all these years, Robert Horrocks remains. Is something he's doing driving everyone away?
  • Matthews Asia - New CEO
    i concur. and i had not heard about teresa kong's leaving. where did she go? does anyone know? I will take a look.....
    ...Found this. RETIRING???? She can't be that old.....
    https://citywireselector.com/news/a-rated-bond-boss-to-exit-matthews-asia/a2391349
    Or is the word being used here in a non-standard way?
    Exactly. All the portfolio managers that left have been Teresa's age or younger. Firm has lost an entire generation of leaders on the investment team. Teresa is not that old herself, she's <50 years old if I had to guess? It's a really bad sign.
    Looking at the direction of the company, its not a surprise. Why stay on the proverbial sinking ship when your skill set is in high demand? Having felt the change there over the years, I'm not sure why matthews didn't make a leadership change sooner at the top. It almost seems too late at this point. You all might remember they brought in some outside leaders, but they ended up resigning or leaving after very short stints. Yu Ming Wang famously joined in 2020 as Global CIO/President, but resigned within 9 months. That is also a really bad sign and highly unusual. Actually I've never heard of such a thing happening.
    https://www.pionline.com/money-management/matthews-asias-presidentglobal-cio-resigns
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    @BaluBalu, there is a performance table in Barron's for typical 60-40 robo-advisor portfolios. As expected, due to higher cash %, Schwab lost less (but not the least) for YTD and 1-yr, but lagged for 3-yr and 5-yr.
    Real reason for Schwab to have high cash % (12% from @MikeM was just an example) was to keep its fee literally "zero", but Schwab shifted that money to Schwab Bank, made money on it and split some of that with the brokerage. So, in a round about way, Schwab robo holders paid for the accounts. After the SEC settlement, the new ad disclosures just make this more visible and clear (previously, it was a small print in footnotes). And Schwab has also introduced a new version (SIP Premium) with more services and flat fees.
  • Your buy - sells July forward
    As I mentioned earlier, I swapped out GATEX with NLSAX in my alternative sleeve. I thought the reasons might be worth explaining …
    In late March of this year Warren Buffett agreed to purchase a stock I held in the alternative sleeve of portfolio. The stock is Allegheny (Y) and the price shot up 25% overnight. I immediately sold all my shares of Y at the 25% premium, leaving a hole in the alternative sleeve. Readers may be aware that I’m not one to hold much cash. So, somewhat in desperation I tried to come up with a suitable fund or stock to fill the hole. GATEX is a fund I’d owned years earlier and had researched more recently. So, the cash proceeds from selling Allegheny went into GATEX.
    The biggest drawback to continuing to hold GATEX is that, while hedged against market volatility, it otherwise uses S&P index stocks to represent its equity positions. I hadn’t realized that when buying. Since I also own a small speculative hold in SPDN (a fund that shorts the S&P 500) I found myself essentially shorting GATEX while at the same time owning it. Not a good position to be in. Decided to hang on to GATEX until something better for my purposes came into focus.
    That’s the long and short of it …
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    I have not delved into Robo-Advisors or their products.
    Since Schwab Robo is mentioned a few times, how does their performance compare against a moderate allocation fund such as PRWCX, FBAKX, & VWELX over a 1, 3, & 5 year period.
    I am always looking for passive, buy and hold options. If the Schwab Robo performance (inclusive of cash) keeps pace with a combination of the above three active funds, then Schwab Robo is attractive.
    What is Schwab's stated logic of keeping 12% permanently in cash?
  • Robo-Advisors - Barron's Rankings, 2022
    @MikeM, The Professor’s a true “buy and holder” from what I can recall. However, does make adjustments occasionally. I’m eager to hear his more recent take on TMSRX. (An alt fund?) I think he owned a fair amount at one time. I and a few others have entirely vacated this one over the past year.
    On another note, I think you’re just a bit harsh on those of us who use some “alternative” funds. What’s in a name? FWIW my “alternative” sleeve does contain some more traditional alt funds, but also included in it are 3 individual stocks representing 3 different (alternative) sectors: Insurance, a large regional bank, and a global food producer / distributor.
    Re the performance chasers, yes, I see what you see but would never call anyone out. And - there are those rare individuals who know and understand momentum investing. But, like you, I see some buying high and selling low.
    I may have indirectly touched on that last point in a different post recently (See below.)
    -
    Relevant Excerpts:
    However, when I see & hear average investors trying to time buys and sells based on the most recent print or electronic pundentary (consumer sentiment / inflation / deflation / recession / depression / interest rate direction / Fed discount rate and Federal Reserve “projections” - duh), I think of the futility of it all.
    Do those concepts matter? Yes. It’s just that I think there are financial professionals making decisions based on those readings who are 2 or 3 steps ahead of most of us. We’re the guy showing up at the fire with a garden hose and shovel after the fire brigade has already arrived. Or the fella dipping a net in the lake right after the commercial trawlers have swept through.”
    Here’s the Thread
  • "too late to cancel."
    @Crash, I like the suggestion from David. Also, I’ve found nothing works as well as a carefully typewritten letter outlining your case and sent to a company’s customer relations department by certified mail. It serves notice that you’re a literate person who might just be willing to enlist your own legal representation, write nasty online reviews, or refer the case to regulators. No need to say that. Don’t threaten. They’ll infer as much if letter is well written. Doesn’t always work, but worth the effort.
    However, since you’re not intending to pursue this any further with TRP, I’ve linked some music to lesson your angst from the album “Too Late to Cancel” by Mitch Benn and the Distractions.
    Too Late To Cancel is the third album by Mitch Benn, released in 2004 under the name of 'Mitch Benn and The Distractions' and featuring his backing band composed of Kirsty Newton (of Siskin) and Tasha Baylis (of Hepburn). All songs were written by Mitch Benn. Several had previous versions feature in the radio shows The Now Show, It's Been a Bad Week and Mitch Benn's Crimes Against Music.”
    Track Listing
    "We Haven't Got A Clue" – 2:32
    "Never Went Through A Smiths Phase" – 2:17
    "Boy Band" – 3:13
    "I Want" – 1:17
    "Can't Do Disco" – 2:33
    "Lonesome Führer" – 2:43
    "Stinky Pants" – 2:14
    "Now He's Gone" – 2:51
    "Never Mind The Song (Look At The Stage Set)" – 3:22
    "Tea Party" – 2:39
    "One-Way System Blues" – 2:53
    "Hard To Shock" – 3:07
    "I'm Still Here" – 1:28
    "West End Musical" – 3:48
    "The Hardest Song In The World To Find" – 3:12
    "Please Don't Release This Song" – 3:05
    "The Interactive Song (Live)" – 2:58
    "Macbeth (My Name Is) (Live)" – 4:48
    "Baby I'm Sorry (Live)" – 3:43

  • Current New Issue CDs
    I think that you change (nonqualified) annuity carriers through 1035 Exchange. It is not a complicated form but just another layer of paperwork beyond normal account/money transfer paperwork. I found a sample 1035 Exchange form from NY Life. Inheriting annuity (or anything else) can be more complicated due to required proof of death and the legitimacy of beneficiaries; besides, there are different options for spouse and non-spouse beneficiaries.
    https://www.nylannuities.com/assets/documents/applications-and-forms/service-forms/1035 Exchange Form.pdf
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Don't you have the option to take your monies elsewhere after the 5 year term? And couldn't the APY go up if interest rates go up 5 years from now?
    YBB - so after you are 59.5 no penalty, to moving your monies after term expires correct?
    Generally no fees, correct? (I'm asking, I don't know)
    I do know when my wife inherited an annuity it was a colossal and I mean colossal task getting the monies from the insurance company...so many hurdles, BS was off the charts....from rather well known company.
    Thanks for the replies
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Local paper ad. 2yr annuity 2.85 , 3yr 3.35 , & 4yr 3.6 %. 100 k minimum .
    What happens if holder dies ?
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Keep in mind that once an annuity, always an annuity (until 59.5).
    So, that 5-yr term-annuity can only be rolled into another term-annuity to avoid 10% penalty before 59.5.
    So, comparison with 5-yr CD (bank or brokered) is not fair.
    Insurance co is counting on keeping that annuity money forever by offering 5-yr teaser rate.
  • Current New Issue CDs
    Team,
    Might be off topic but more adjacent to convo....
    Please talk to me and share opinions, experience with...Immediate Fixed Rate Annuities.
    Looking on bluprintincome.com...
    5 year, term, balance percent withdrawls allowed, Brighthouse, A rated, 4.30%.
    advantages, disadvantages, tax consequences, etc?
    Obviously not FDIC insured but....why would someone NOT do this rather than a 5 year CD?
    Thoughts?
    Best,
    Baseball Fan