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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard Global ESG Select Stock Fund
    Vanguard Global ESG Select Stock Fund (VESGX) came to mind after viewing the clean/renewable ETFs thread. Wellington Management is the advisor for VESGX.
    The fund has performed well since its 2019 inception but this is a short evaluation period.
    It's unclear to me how selecting securities based on net zero targets will affect investment performance.
    Any thoughts?
    "Specifically, the advisor seeks to invest approximately 65% of the Fund’s assets
    in companies with net zero science-based targets by 2030 and approximately
    90% of the Fund’s assets in companies with net zero science-based targets by
    2040, with the ultimate goal of investing 100% of the Fund’s assets in
    companies that have reached net zero by 2050. The advisor reserves the right to
    deviate from these targets without notice."
    Observant1 in Fund Discussions
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Over the past six weeks it has been one after another breadth, volume and assorted momentum indicators kick in on the buy side saying the bear is dead. Today yet another one from Seth Gordon on Twitter. 90% of the S@P stocks are trading above their 50 day moving average. Since 2003 has occurred 14 times with a positivity rate of 94% and an average 12 month S@P return of 18%
    Junkster Junkster in Other Investing
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    What is the significance of a new high for the S&P 500's cumulative A/D line?
    Historically, has this proven to be a reliable indicator of future performance?
    Observant1 in Other Investing
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    SP500 cumulative A/D line is at a new high, https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1558147852202917891
    image
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • Small-caps at all?
    It is like the January-effect playing in Summer. Use anything SC, and IWM, IWO would be fine too.
    Major indexes from 6/16/22 https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p16477435900
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • Ping the Board

    Strategic Petroleum Reserve
    From: Fossil Energy and Carbon Management
    Excerpts from that site:
    SPR Quick Facts
    The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is a U.S. Government complex of four sites with deep underground storage caverns created in salt domes along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts.
    Highest inventory - The SPR was filled to its then 727 million barrel authorized storage capacity on December 27, 2009; the inventory of 726.6 million barrels was the highest ever held in the SPR.
    Previous Inventory Milestones
    2008. Prior to Hurricane Gustav coming ashore on September 1, 2008, the SPR had reached 707.21 million barrels, the highest level ever held up until that date. A series of emergency exchanges conducted after Hurricane Gustav, followed shortly thereafter by Hurricane Ike, reduced the level by 5.4 million barrels.
    2005. Prior to the 2008 hurricane releases, the former record had been reached in late August 2005, just days before Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Katrina emergency releases of both crude oil sales and exchanges (loans) totaled 20.8 million barrels.
    1977. First oil was delivered to the newly constructed SPR, 412,000 barrels of light sweet crude.
    Current authorized storage capacity - 714 million barrels
    Fill status - The SPR completed fill on December 27, 2009 with a cargo that arrived and began to unload on Christmas Day. The cargo was 493,000 barrels of Saharan Blend, a light sweet crude that was delivered to the Bryan Mound site. A sale and drawdown in 2011 reduced the inventory to 695.9 million barrels.
    Current days of import protection in SPR - At the end of CY 2021 (as of December 31, 2021), the SPR’s crude oil inventory was 594.7 MMbbl. This is equivalent to approximately 1,206 days of supply of total U.S. petroleum net imports.
    International Energy Agency requirement - 90 days of import protection (both public and private stocks). In past years, the United States has met its commitment with a combination of SPR stocks and industry stocks. The days of import protection may vary based on actual net U.S. petroleum imports and the inventory level of the SPR.
    Average price paid for oil in the Reserve - $29.70 per barrel

    Drawdown Capability
    Maximum nominal drawdown capability - 4.4 million barrels per day
    Time for oil to enter U.S. market - 13 days from Presidential decision
    Investment to date - About $25.7 billion ($5 billion for facilities; $20.7 billion for crude oil).
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Ping the Board
    This US SPR status from Twitter is from June and you may look for updated data from the IEA. There was also some recent news on changing the law on SPR buys from the current bids-system to buying in the futures markets or with forward-contracts, as appropriate. Realize that the SPR activities are not for profits but to stabilize the US oil supply-demand and prices.
    https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1539195742753116160
    image
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • Ping the Board
    Hi guys,
    So the strategic oil reserve is being taped 1 mil a day for 90 days. So some questions here....hope you can help. In no special order.....after a few longnecks, what's the point? lol.....
    1. How much can be drawn down before you have to stop?
    2. How much is in the reserve?
    3. I have heard that Australia and Britain also have oil in there. Are there more countries that have some in there?
    4. How long until you must replace the oil?
    5. How?....Is it in the budget or do you just print more money?
    6. Where does the oil come from: OPEC or U.S.?
    7. How often can we do this? Every year?
    8. Who is in charge of it? the President, or others also?
    9. Is it US refined and kept in the U.S.?
    10. Is it kept safe, say, like Fort Knox? Is it on military ground---no terrorists?
    Just some thoughts and thanks in advance for your help.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    Puddnhead Puddnhead in Other Investing
  • Welcome to the Club, JR, A New I-Bond Buyer
    M* JR compares I-Bonds and 5-Yr TIPS with T-Bills/Notes and reaches favorable conclusions under title, I-Bonds Forever? (Well, no, but still good).
    He used 2 long-term scenarios: 1st, since 09/1998 (I-Bond inception) and 2nd, since 01/1995 (when 5-yr TIPS issuance resumed).
    For I-Bonds, he used 2 assumptions - the initial 3.4% fixed/base rate and 0% fixed/base rate (to entirely remove that effect). So, this 2nd scenario only captured the CPI effect and actual I-Bond buyers did better than that bottom line.
    Unsurprisingly, his conclusions were that that the initial fixed/base rate was a give-away for then (1998) new I-Bonds and those did the best. But 0% I-Bonds also kept up with alternatives. He cautions about their limitations (annual limit, non-tradability) and to keep future expectations reasonable. But not to pass up a good deal, he has just now bought I-Bonds for both his wife and him. Welcome to the club JR!
    As has been noted here, these conclusions are not surprising because I-Bonds, and 5-yr TIPS held to maturity, have kept up with $$CPI.
    www.morningstar.com/articles/1108848/i-bonds-forever
    LINK
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22
    Really appreciate your opinion. Market rallied recently from softer July CPI number, 8.5% versus June’s 9.1%. Small additions, but nothing radical.
    Sven in Other Investing
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    "Speedometer." Ya... Early in the year, the talking heads advised against bonds. I took from bonds to add to stocks at the highs for the year in TRAMX and PRNEX and PRISX. I'm still underwater, though TRAMX is nearly back to the zero-line by now.
    My sole bond fund is TRP Junk: TUHYX. Still down YTD by -10+%. I've added a bit to my TUHYX pile, buying de-valued, unloved shares. (Cost basis!)
    I'm in retirement, but can afford to invest for the heirs, so the move to overweight stocks doesn't make me itch so very much. Method? Steer clear of bonds, as instructed. But I did not go to ZERO in bonds. Don't put all your eggs in one basket, eh? I'm at 21% in bonds today. Another ingredient in my "method" is to stay overweight in PRWCX. It was down by -12%, now down by -5%. I added to it a couple of times in the past few months. If I'm fortunate, it might turn positive by year's end. We'll see. The expected Recession is technically here, after 2 Quarters of negative growth. But in practical terms, this does not feel like a Recession, yet. I still think things will get worse before we climb out of the present circumstances. Method? Cut losses before they get to be utterly unpalatable, re: my single stock positions. I can't make the Market love the stuff I own. I can sell, and then re-deploy. ...And all of this does not violate my sense of risk-tolerance.
    Crash Crash in Other Investing
  • Tyson Foods Stock Slumps / Chickens on the Rise
    Costco has their giant rotisserie chicken for less than $5. Of course that up front membership fee can be an issue.
    And the hot dogs are still $1.50. Which reminds me of when the new CEO was contemplating raising that price:
    When Costco's current CEO Craig Jelinek once approached Jim Sinegal, then CEO, about raising the price of the hot dog, Sinegal told him, "If you raise the [price of the] effing hot dog, I will kill you. Figure it out."
    https://www.businessinsider.in/retail/news/costcos-founder-once-told-the-companys-current-ceo-if-you-raise-the-price-of-the-effing-hot-dog-i-will-kill-you/articleshow/78240301.cms
    PRESSmUP PRESSmUP in Other Investing
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Howard Marks - Which Way Now?
    He suggests that rather than in/out or buy/sell, make portfolio adjustments according to own risk level.
    https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-video/market-commentary/insights-live-which-way-now
    Marks suggests investors center on a neutral risk setting (think of a speedometer) suitable for their age, goals, tolerance, etc. He also recommends varying that a bit with one’s assessment of market valuation / dynamics. Therein lies the difficulty.
    Since around the first of the year I’ve tried using a “sliding scale” of sorts - but only with about half the portfolio. The other 50-55% is quite static. Essentially, I try to raise or lower the allocation to fixed income. Raising the fixed component reduces the equity component. Been trimming risk lately. “Neutral” for fixed income is 25%. Was down to only 17-18% a month ago. Has since risen to 21% - less aggressive than earlier, but still substantially overweighted towards risk. Keep in mind that there is also a 50+% (moderate) allocation which remains static other than minor rebalancing.
    There are many ways to skin a cat. If others have some sort of “speedometer” (Marks’ term) I’d enjoy hearing how they implement it. From some of the posts a month or two back some here were ramping up their cash and conservative investments based on “Fed-Speak” and their own macro assessment. In hindsight, that might have had them leaning the wrong way. Points to the difficulty of putting Marks into practice, Lately, mining and some natural resources (not oil) have recovered from earlier year losses. (And the dollar has begun to weaken). Yesterday I trimmed a bit off real assets and bumped up cash.
    Amazingly - PRSIX, a 40/60 fund I watch closely, remains deep underwater at near a double-digit loss YTD despite the market rebound. Individual investors have a nimbleness and ability to react to changing conditions that a large fund does not possess. Than again, TRP never ceases to amaze.
    hank in Other Investing
  • Tyson Foods Stock Slumps / Chickens on the Rise
    Costco has their giant rotisserie chicken for less than $5. Of course that up front membership fee can be an issue.
    Mark Mark in Other Investing
  • PSTL. Postal Realty Trust
    You maybe right
    Sure $$
    It's like social security never default nor bankrupt
    Maybe buy 20 50 shares ABR PSTL once get paid ck next wk. Abr also solid company, good volume, stability, good fundament, forgot had it on my radar 2 3 yrs ago
    lol
    Good finds Good luck
    johnN johnN in Other Investing
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/10/22
    For the week ending on 8/10/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (31.2%; average); bullish became the middle sentiment (32.2%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -4.5% (low). With all Sentiments still in 30s, future flip-flops in ordering are expected. The strong rally from mid-June lows is at an important juncture. Investor concerns included recession/slowdown; inflation & supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (24+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down/flat, oil up, gold up, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=740
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • Tyson Foods Stock Slumps / Chickens on the Rise
    With respect to sweet corn, the prices are indeed much higher than in previous years. The market we use for meat and a few other products is noted for good quality but very high prices: sweet corn the other day was $1.29 PER EAR!!!
    For contrast, the sweet corn from the Safeway chain is locally grown, consistently excellent quality, and typically 50¢ per ear, with frequent sales of 3/$1.00. Over the July 4th weekend they really had a special: 10¢ per ear- limit of 6 ears.
    It pays to shop around, which is very easy using InstaCart. Yes, InstaCart's prices are a little high, but since we're both over 80, avoiding Covid and not carrying heavy grocery bags it's worth it. We typically source groceries from 3 or 4 different stores, including Costco.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    To clarify, 3055 shares of PSTL
    carew388 carew388 in Other Investing
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    +1 crash and hank Marketbeat reported that Director Patrick Donahoe bought 3055 shares recently so maybe he knows something?! Once I found out TROW had a 4% dividend, I couldn't resist it, so thanks for the info hank !
    carew388 carew388 in Other Investing
  • Amazing / TROW down nearly 40% YTD
    @Hank
    Good call sir
    Hood plummet from 60s to 5 then rebound little to 10.5 today
    I DID similar things and always kicked myself before or after since did not buy or sell too early
    Many small caps stocks -70% (even 80s 90s% like IONQ) since the carnage started after new-year/Ukraine invasion
    Add lots small caps past few wks
    TNA
    NVTA
    VRM
    Balu
    Qubt
    Bbby
    Also small dca into cryptos recently
    BTC
    ETH
    Xlmusd
    Sold out NVTA after closures massive gained today but very small portions 300 shares...bought at 2.5 bucks
    Pump dumped AMTD HKD last few wk 7% 10% gained here there but very little bought
    johnN johnN in Other Investing