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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Small-caps at all?
    Thanks to everyone for your posts and for your suggestions above. Greatly appreciate it. I spent the weekend analyzing a number of funds and Virtus KAR Small Cap core seems to have the best risk reward stats in the small cap space. It's a Great Owl and also honor roll fund. To me the things that appeal are that it had a MaxDD of 18.3% back in March of 2020 and this year through end of June of that MaxDD was 15.7%. That compares quite favorably to other funds in the space and gives it a low risk rating on Morningstar. Also Beta is only .82. Combine that with top % decile performance in the past 1, 3, 5, 10, and 15 years. I also like the fact that the fund manager has conviction behind his picks with a concentrated fund. At any rate, I plan to purchase the fund. Thanks again for contributing. If anyone else has been following this particular fund, I'd love to hear your thoughts.
  • Vanguard Problems
    @Derf,
    I was unable to purchase Treasuries in May via Vanguard's website using Firefox.
    More info here.
    My guess is that Vanguard has optimized their website for Chromium-based browsers.
    Firefox uses the Quantum browser engine and is not based on Chromium.
  • Single Bond/Treasury ETFs
    If you have gotten used to single-stock ETFs, get ready for single-bond/Treasury ETFs. I suppose they make rolls easy although many brokerages (Fido, Schwab, etc) have auto-rolls for Treasuries. There may be other minor trading advantages for small ERs. Keep in mind that major brokerages already have commission-free trading for Treasuries.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/single-treasury-bond-etf-51660337288?refsec=etfs&mod=topics_etfs
  • Current New Issue CDs
    I believe that the credit union is required to publish a blended APY, combining 4% for 4 months and 1.65% (the current rate for the remainder) for the final 12 months.
    See Reg DD Appendix A. This is a stepped rate CD. Section B talks about blending rates, and Section C talks about using the current rate (1.65%) if the rate is variable.
    https://www.consumerfinance.gov/rules-policy/regulations/1030/a/#1B-1
    The credit union is advertising this as 4% APY without disclosing the blended rate. This may be violating Reg DD. Haven't researched but suspect it should not be necessary to read the fine print (though one should) if the institution is stating APY as required by law.
    I hope they get fu**ed on this.
  • Current New Issue CDs
    One has to read the fine print carefully as marketing tactics are often used to get your attention.
    Thus, the phrase: "Those bastards in Marketing."
    ****************************************************
    Must be a Trump operation.
    I plead the 5th.
  • Current New Issue CDs
    I believe that the credit union is required to publish a blended APY, combining 4% for 4 months and 1.65% (the current rate for the remainder) for the final 12 months.
    See Reg DD Appendix A. This is a stepped rate CD. Section B talks about blending rates, and Section C talks about using the current rate (1.65%) if the rate is variable.
    https://www.consumerfinance.gov/rules-policy/regulations/1030/a/#1B-1
    The credit union is advertising this as 4% APY without disclosing the blended rate. This may be violating Reg DD. Haven't researched but suspect it should not be necessary to read the fine print (though one should) if the institution is stating APY as required by law.
  • Vanguard Problems
    the threatened penalty for keeping VG mutual fund account is $20/yr/fund holding. [...]
    [...] people also got notices to switch to electronic statements to avoid $20 annual fee. [...] the previous threshold to avoid that fee was $50K in household assets, but it was suddenly bumped up to cool $1 million.
    In both instances (legacy mutual fund platform, brokerage platform), Vanguard was and is charging annual maintenance fees. In both instances the amount of the maintenance fees is not changing. In both instances Vanguard was and is providing ways to have those fees waived.
    Vanguard is making two changes. One is to increase the threshold balance for waiving fees from $10K to Flagship status ($1M), for both legacy and brokerage platforms. (There is a different $50K threshold for SIMPLE IRAs and solo 401(k)s that is not changing.)
    The other change is that Vanguard is eliminating electronic delivery as a way to wave fees on the legacy platform. Vanguard is retaining this waiver on its brokerage platform. The practical effect of this if you are counting upon using electronic delivery to have fees waved is to nudge you onto the brokerage platform. This has no impact on Flagship customers as they will continue to have maintenance fees waived.
    Apparently (I have not received communication from Vanguard), the new fee schedule for existing accounts goes into effect on Sept. 30th.
    Old fee schedule
    New fee schedule
    (Links "borrowed" from Bogleheads thread.)
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Wealthtrack podcast with guest Paul McCulley -
  • Current New Issue CDs

    That 4% is a teaser rate that only lasts for the first 4 months of the term. Thereafter, the rate drops to the higher of either 2% or their normal 12 month CD rate (currently 1.65%).
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    Listened to Summers again. He’s afflicted by the “ahh” syndrome which detracts from his speech delivery. These are known as verbal pauses. A good speech coach could correct that with some training. His delivery is also very slow. Such defects are perhaps irrelevant when he’s sitting in on a meeting with other college professors. Not so good on TV. For a sharp contrast listen to host David Weston whose delivery is virtually free of verbal pauses.
    None of this is to suggest speaking ability affects one’s financial acuity. It does not. But listening to LS for 15 minutes ought to provide a lot more information and insight than it seems to. In a sense, delivery does affect the end result.
  • ETF. Invesco solar. Ticker = TAN. Cute.
    Renewable energy is the cover story in the current Barron's. LINK1 LINK2
    COVER STORY, “Clean Energy’s Future Has Arrived/6 Stocks to Play the Rush for Renewable ENERGY”. AES, BE, FCX, LG Energy (S Korea), PLUG, RUN, etc; ETF TAN
    TRANSITION from wood to coal took200 years, from coal to oil 100 years, but that from fossil fuels to RENEWABLES (solar, wind, batteries, hydrogen) to be in only a few years? Global renewable power was 29% in 2020, and by 2030, may be 60% in Europe, 38% in the US, 38% in China. Both the US and Europe, each, are adding 30 GW of renewable power capacity now and that may be 80 GW/yr by 2030. There are transition TAX CREDITS/INCENTIVES everywhere. Russia-Ukraine war has set back some current efforts (coal has come back and natural-gas is scarce) but has accelerated the push for future transitions. Europe has committed $200 billion, the US Inflation Reduction Act will have $370 billion, and private investments will kick in $1.2 trillion. This may be the end of boom-and-bust energy cycles. Many countries have NET-ZERO carbon emission goals by 2050+. However, be very selective on companies in the renewable energy area. Besides the companies mentioned earlier, other beneficiaries may include VWDRY, NLLSF, XOM, CVX (old energy companies won’t be sitting still).
  • Bloomberg Wall Street Week
    There is an interview in the current Barron's from a China fan, LINK1 LINK2
    Virginie MAISONNEUVE, Allianz Global. An interview focused on China (VM has followed China since the age of 5, has degree in Mandarin, has worked in China, specializes in China ESG). China-Taiwan conflict is not in anybody’s interest. The US-China trade war was misplaced by the US concerns. Treat China as a separate asset class, not just a part of the EMs. China is often out of sync with the others, so that provides important diversification benefit. China offers opportunities in innovative/disruptive techs, biotech, digitization. Chinese equities are volatile but attractive on earnings and valuations. Her big themes include quality-value (i.e. not deep-value), quality-growth, high-impact global themes (energy, food, water, AI, cybersecurity), risk control with ESG (her “new normal” despite temporary criticisms/doubts now).
  • ETF. Invesco solar. Ticker = TAN. Cute.
    I presume you read through this recent thread.
    What is different about a sector "bet" versus a single stock position?
    MFO, August 9
  • Vanguard Problems
    @hank, the threatened penalty for keeping VG mutual fund account is $20/yr/fund holding. So, for someone holding 5 VG funds in an account, it is $20 x 5 = $100/yr for that account. Double that if both husband and wife have VG accounts. We actually have 5 distinct VG accounts (4 IRAs, 1 trust) and on us alone, VG could get a windfall (-:).
    In another forum, people also got notices to switch to electronic statements to avoid $20 annual fee. VG uses a householding system and the previous threshold to avoid that fee was $50K in household assets, but it was suddenly bumped up to cool $1 million. The deadline for that is also 9/30/22.
  • Vanguard Problems
    A family member has had some of her IRA invested in some Vanguard mutual funds for decades. She has been taking RMDs from these investments for some time. That all has worked smoothly. The initial investment(s) predated the existence of Vanguard's brokerage. Last week she received an email from Vanguard urging her to "transition" (is that really a verb?) her mutual fund accounts to the VBA platform or face the consequences. VBA turns out to stand for Vanguard Brokerage Account, not Very Bad Arrangement. The consequences are a yearly fee of $20 and a $60 penalty.
    Well, OK, she has no need for a brokerage but the method is said to be simple. Click right there in the email message, follow the directions that will appear as a website window opens and it will all be done in a few minutes. And if there's a problem (why are they anticipating problems ?) just phone this number. She clicked. She followed the directions. A few minutes later a message appeared saying it was all accomplished; transition complete. Next day she logged into her account and there appeared not one but two messages urging her to "transition" as soon as possible.
    Together we phoned the number. The recorded voice told us everyone was busy but if we leave a phone number we'll be phoned back in a few minutes. We did and we did receive a call soon after. The Vanguard feller was intelligent and competent. I received permission to join the conversation and he said he'd complete the process. It didn't work for him either. He said that in that case he would create a new account and put everything there and all would be well. He couldn't do it. The computer system told him there was nothing in her account eligible for transition. He told us he'd look into it and phone us back the next day. That was 5 days ago. He did not phone. There is no change in her account and no apparent transition.
    Vanguard is threatening fines and fees if customers don't comply with a system that does not work. I suggested to the Vanguard agent that perhaps the system was overloaded and it would take time to process the transition. He said that was possible but he just did not know what was wrong. I guess he still doesn't know.
    There are people here at MFO who are savvy and well-informed. Does someone have an idea what might be going on?
  • Morningstar Devolution
    There was a post at M* Discussions (long thread, post# 326, warning - needs lot of scrolling) yesterday that offered a ray of hope. https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o000066YnacCAC/does-anyone-else-feel-like-the-new-morningstar-investor-is-a-huge-downgrade-compared-with-the-legacy-portfolio-manager
    "Bill.Baranyk (Employee)
    21 hours ago
    Hello Investor subscriber,
    We're continuing to receive feedback from subscribers on the Investor experience, with an emphasis on the status of missing or incomplete features.
    We take feedback seriously and want to show how we’re using it to improve Investor. So, we’d like to lay out what you can expect over the next six to nine months.
    The status of legacy Portfolio Manager
    Legacy Portfolio Manager will not be retired until the features in Investor's Portfolio help you accomplish the same tasks as legacy: monitoring your portfolio with relevant data in customizable views, understanding investment performance, and reviewing Portfolio X-Ray analysis on your holdings. Our goal is to add features to Portfolio that support those tasks by the end of 2022.
    As we continue to build and release, you’ll see similar features to those in legacy, but you’ll also see new additions that improve how you research, analyze, and monitor investments.
    But rest assured: Legacy will not be retired until all those features are successfully up and running in Investor. We’ll communicate our progress along the way, and if we aren’t on track to hit our goal, legacy will remain until we are.
    Custom views
    Custom views are coming to Investor, and they’ll be similar to the My Views feature in legacy Portfolio. The launch of views will come in phases, with the first phase rolling out in early September 2022. This launch will include an improved process for creating, editing, and sorting custom views and around 80 additional data points to work with.
    The remaining phases will roll out throughout the rest of the year and will include expanded data points and more ways to control how you view information within tables. [We’re also determining the best way to bring over custom views you’ve already created in legacy Portfolio Manager.]
    We’ll notify you as each phase launches.
    Performance tracking
    In the fall, we’ll add performance tracking to Investor for portfolios that have manually added purchases/sales. This includes both data and comparisons to similar benchmarks. Watchlists in Investor will not include functionality for performance tracking.
    Investor will continue to evolve with the needs of our subscribers, so we’ll keep you informed as updates come. This approach may be a bit different than what you’ve experienced with Premium. It’s all in service of getting the right features into your hands, so you can focus on your investment goals.
    We can’t wait for you to see what’s in store over the coming weeks and months.
    Happy investing,
    The Morningstar Investor team"
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
    From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June low.
    Thanks.

    The 18% is from today. But many other such indicators kicked in long before today. For instance since 1946 we have had only 8 quarters where the S@P had a decline of 15% or greater. Average following 12 month return has been 26,1%. This past June quarter makes it a 9th occurrence. So we shall see. But so far so good.
    18% from today would make it approx 40% from June bottom. That is huge. If so, I could end up being one of the losers because today I sold all that I bought in 2022 and sitting in more than 40% cash. Still YTD portfolio loss - there was so much institutional pessimism about the 2022 swoon that I was not aggressive in buying in June. I think it was just a day or two around June 15, BoA revised their prognosis and said they see S&P 500 bottoming at near 3,000 with the year end target of 3,400.
    P.S.: My sell is not based on any technical analysis, except that we are still in a Fed tightening cycle. S&P 500 is only 11% below all time high while interest rates across the curve are much higher in a short period of time. It just felt right to sell. Of course, the back to school retail sales could prompt retailers to give good guidance next week, giving more reasons for the market to keep going up.
  • Vanguard Global ESG Select Stock Fund
    Consider them in light of the broad net-zero targets globally. Several developed countries have net-zero target as 2050, China 2060, India 2070. This phased approach by VESGX seems sensible, and a bit on the aggressive side.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
    From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June low.
    Thanks.
    The 18% is from today. But many other such indicators kicked in long before today. For instance since 1946 we have had only 8 quarters where the S@P had a decline of 15% or greater. Average following 12 month return has been 26,1%. This past June quarter makes it a 9th occurrence. So we shall see. But so far so good. Study done by Ryan Detrick.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Good info @Junkster & @Ybb.
    From which event in time is the average 12 month S&P return of 18% calculated? What is the date from which we are supposed to observe this gain? I had to ask because S&P 500 is already up 18% from its June low.
    Thanks.