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This is a conclusion I adopted in February 2019 ( Powell Put ). It became clear to me at that point the Fed had given up on reviving traditional interest rates. The Fed and the stock market are for now co-dependent and planning to live in a somewhat lower interest rate world. The pandemic and the Fed's more inclusive employment mandate have further solidified this change. My portfolio allocation to bonds was 37% on 1/4/19. It is 25% today. That 12% difference has been allocated to higher yield stocks (3%+ YOC). (Time will report to me on the ongoing benefit of that change.)Today the Fed (and other central banks across the globe) is part of the market.
June 15, 1992This is typical: A look through Fidelity's long list of equity funds finds only about six managers who have been managing the same fund for five years or more. A tenure of one to three years for one fund is much more common, though most managers have been with Fidelity longer than that, graduating from one fund to another.
For the Russell 2000 benchmark, leaving out the unprofitable companies means setting aside what for the past year has amounted to more than one third of the market value of the small-cap index, according to an analysis from Jefferies looking at earnings over the previous 12 months....
....Yet, other analysts say it’s misleading to present a valuation metric that omits such a substantial share of the Russell 2000. Investors who own the stocks in the index aren’t weeding out the hefty portion without earnings.
“You’re taking out like six, seven hundred companies from your calculation,” Steven DeSanctis, small- and midcap strategist at Jefferies. “If you took out all the Cs and Ds that I got in high school, I was a solid B-plus student.”
Metrics that include negative earnings show the Russell 2000 went from trading at 27 times its past 12 months of earnings at the end of March 2020 to trading at 238 times earnings one year later, according to data from index provider FTSE Russell. That multiple fell by nearly half over the following month, and as of July was down to about 70.
With loss-making companies removed, the Russell 2000’s price-to-earnings multiple was both lower and less volatile: about 14 in March 2020, up to nearly 25 in March 2021 and then down to 19 at the end of July.
Right. Seems to me D&C emailed me the link to the semi-annual within the past few days. But I could be wrong. Agree that the June 30 date on the D&C report is pretty old. Looks like the FT article is recent, bearing an August 25 date. Yet, when I look at the CNBC clip @Sven posted, it’s dated April 23. So, apparently, Giroux was already scaling back on equities and publicly stating that as far back as April.OEF reports are, annoyingly, usually at least 2 months old by the time they come out.
A couple, at least.@msf, in showing how wrong additive decomposition of factors is, are you also making a point about this conclusion?
That's interesting. The show took me to funds that have a large position in BRK.A or BRK.B. For example FCNTX owns both share classes.Lots of talk, a grand total of one stock as the "one investment," and never a word about mutual funds that own "quality."
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