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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BulletShares versus ibonds bond ladder
    Have you used these to any success? There is a yield to maturity calculator on their website and I wonder how accurate it is to what you return would be if you purchased on that date.
    I have some fixed expenses coming up in 5-6 years and I was thinking of using these defined maturity ETFs to pay for those.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 8/17/22
    For the week ending on 8/17/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (36.7%; above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (29.5%; below average); bullish remained the middle sentiment (33.3%; below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -3.8% (below average). The strong stock rally from mid-June lows continued. Investor concerns: Recession/slowdown; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed/FOMC; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (25+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil down, gold up, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=747
  • Sweater Cashmere Fund (VC Fund)
    Bloomberg shows the fund's Total assets at $8.5M as of 8-16-2022. How can you have Cashmere without the Cash?
    We really cannot be familiar with ALL the Asset Mgrs out there, and I'm not sure about these guys. I suppose a VC fund is probably just looking to get lucky with a major home run or two anyway.
    Interesting new product for small time (us non-accredited) retail investors. Will watch to see if it attracts any $. Fees are not cheap, redemption window is semi-annual.
  • Small-caps at all?
    @BenWP yes NEAIX is a very interesting one. Sold off a fair amount earlier this year but Great Owl and top decile performer over last 3 and 5 years. It's coming back. I'm also intrigued by BRSVX in small cap value. Held up very well this year.
  • CWS Market Review – August 16, 2022
    During the day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 poked its head above 4,325. That’s a place the index has not been since early May. The S&P 500 has now gained back more than half of what it lost during this year’s unpleasantness.
    The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index fell 6 points to 49. That was its eighth-straight monthly decline.
    The reason why this is so important is that 50 is the tipping point. Any number above 50 is considered positive, while any number below it is considered negative. Now we’re negative. Except for a brief period around Covid, this index hasn’t been negative in eight years.

    The broader economy is probably not in a recession at the moment, but its most important sector likely is.
    CWS
    crossingwallstreet market-review-august-16-2022
    Housing IS the Business Cycle
    https://nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w13428/w13428.pdf
  • Dr. Michael Burry making moves.
    @Crash,
    With his zero long, he definitely stands out among all the 13-Fs filed this month. Not sure what to make of it. Seems like he is not yet ready to short anything and does not see much upside to even buy calls. You can see a lot of the 13-Fs are slimmed down 50% or more on the equity side from a year ago but only he seems to be OK sitting on the sidelines and watching.
    I never pulled his 13-F before today or follow him, though I sort of know about him. It would be interesting to see his Q3 filing in November. Please do keep us posted about him.
    Thanks.
  • Investor Poll 2 questions
    1. yes is my guess based on 5yr-5yr break evens. I just add 75 bps to the current 10 yr rates for the QT and get to the 3.5% we saw, which is a reasonable approximation.
    2. do not know
  • Dr. Michael Burry making moves.
    Burry's portfolio may be $150-160 million. But he is mostly on the short side, is public about his moves and has made some good/lucky calls, so he makes news. In fact, Twitter is live with the news that he has liquidated 98% of his portfolio and this prison play is the only thing he owns now. Fodder for both bulls and bears.
    But the size of portfolio shouldn't matter. Exxon/XOM ignored Engine No 1 thinking of it as a bothersome fly that would go away. But look what happened.
  • Strategies for 10-Year IRA Drawdown
    I have ~ 13 - 17 yrs until retirement
    401k and trading accts 90% stocks and 2040 TDF /indexes /etf -10% bonds+ fixed incomes + cash
    2 yrs before retirement will changed redistribute to 55/45 and open -rolled ecerything to 401k. After take 5 -7% RMD out per yr until I part this Earth to limit tax situations (hopefully w social security 401k and rmd should be enough get by and travel retire)
  • Importance of Consecutive 90% Down Days ????
    Interesting to note the June 16 quote at the start of this thread caught the short term market bottom....
    VTI Chart
  • Investor Poll 2 questions
    1. Has the 10 year treasury peaked at 3.48% over the next 2 years? yes or no and why?
    2. Are we resting in a commodity super cycle over the next 5 years?
  • LSSAX. Loomis
    Perhaps M* read the prospectus.
    The amounts shown in the table are 0.00% to reflect the fact that the Fund does not pay any advisory, administration or distribution and service fees, and that Loomis, Sayles & Company, L.P. (“Loomis Sayles” or the “Adviser”) has agreed to pay certain expenses of the Fund. You should be aware, however, that shares of the Fund are available only to institutional investment advisory clients of Loomis Sayles and Natixis Advisors, LLC (“Natixis Advisors”) and to participants in certain approved “wrap fee” programs sponsored by broker-dealers and investment advisers that may be affiliated or unaffiliated with the Fund, Loomis Sayles or Natixis Advisors. The institutional investment advisory clients of Loomis Sayles and Natixis Advisors pay Loomis Sayles or Natixis Advisors a fee for their investment advisory services, while participants in “wrap fee” programs pay a “wrap” fee to the program’s sponsor. The “wrap fee” program sponsors in turn pay fees to Natixis Advisors. Participants in “wrap fee” programs should carefully read the wrap fee brochure provided to them by their program’s sponsor. The brochure is required to include information about the fees charged by the “wrap fee” program sponsor and the fees paid by such sponsor to Natixis Advisors. Investors pay no additional fees or expenses to purchase shares of the Fund. Investors will, however, indirectly pay a proportionate share of those costs, such as brokerage commissions, taxes and extraordinary expenses that are borne by the Fund through a reduction in their net asset value. See the section “Management” in the Statutory Prospectus.
  • Dr. Michael Burry making moves.
    For-profit Prison company. Wow. We have too many criminals, and I've been a victim too often. I'm all for more prisons, so the perps can be KEPT INSIDE. But for-profit prisons are unethical. The very concept. To say nothing of the way they abuse and extort admittedly GUILTY pig-sucking shit-bag criminals.
    https://www.reuters.com/business/big-short-fund-manager-burry-dumps-portfolio-buys-prison-stock-2022-08-15/
  • Taking Risk out of the Market...commentary
    Schrager is a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute-a right-wing think tank, so there's your explanation !
    yeah, she is a conservative (whatever that means anymore) macro economist, well-trained, but also in the past an FA, starting w DFA.
    She may be more famous now for having written a rather panned and seemingly obvious book An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk, which among many other things explains that street whores make way more than whorehouse employees, trading wages for risk reduction.
    A Frank Stein wrote [grammar-edited]:
    a primer on basic risk and reward analysis in economics. Most concepts, like the diversification of risk, the difference between systematic and idiosyncratic risk, the difference between hedging and insurance, will not be surprising even to those reading regular business news, but the treat here is the little stories Schrager tells to illustrate these ideas.
    Schrager shows how brothels pay their women less money, almost 50% less, than those women would earn on the streets, but these women trade off the income for risk reduction. The johns pay more for the safe experience though (up to 300% more, partially because both they and the women are affected by tax rates, which cuts wages and raises prices). She shows how horse-raising encourages high-risk, high-reward studs like War Front, who got $250,000 a mating session, or almost $25 million a year, even though the market leads to many failures and mass inbreeding (almost all thoroughbreds are descended from a single male in the early 1700s, the Darley Arabian. Another stud in the 1980s, Northern Dancer, sired most all of the next generation). She explains why paparazzi like Santiago Baez tried to organize "photogs" in the gold-rush era of the early 2000s, with each taking some percentage of the high-income photographs, but she also explains why incentives led most of these photogs to cheat and why the alliances fell apart.
    Etc.
  • Privacy and Cookies Policy
    I've seen that a million times, too. I believe you should leave them OFF if you DON'T want to be tracked and processed and sold.
    If you just want to get rid of the distraction:
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/fck-overlays/ppedokobpbdajgiejhnjfbdjlgobcpkp
    I have it and use it. But it does not work great. I find that I have to click, and only PART of the item is removed. I have to click again and again, which removes just a piece of the distraction, each time. I suppose that's due to the way the f*****g computer code is written?
    https://ktar.com/story/3632577/why-cookie-notices-are-everywhere-on-the-internet/
    *I don't "BLAME" the EU, though. The collecting and selling of my data is an unethical breach of privacy. I should not have to opt OUT. Neither should anyone else. Marketing geniuses.....
    Here's another one I just found. It's not really pertinent to your particular issue:
    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/disconnect/jeoacafpbcihiomhlakheieifhpjdfeo
  • Taking Risk out of the Market...commentary
    Nice @LewisBraham. I’m very worried about many workers dependent on 401-K savings for what could be 20, 30 or even 40 years of retirement. I’m fortunate to have a DB pension. But those are now few and far between. And, when it comes to managing / investing a 401-K, those who post on this forum possess better than average investment acumen. But in general few wage earners would appear equipped to manage a small fortune successfully and time the withdrawals so as to last a lifetime.
    Preventing workers from “borrowing” against their 401-K during their working years might be a start. Some retire with little if any left invested for growth. Perhaps limiting withdrawals to a set percentage or an amount that rises incrementally during retirement would help. As far as target-date funds go … the jury is still out on whether they’re the best approach as the default option. I know a few persons in their mid-60s who have already exhausted 100% of the money they contributed during 25-30 year careers. Suddenly they see their rent, fuel and food costs rising sharply. It’s really sad to witness. Maybe our politicians could stop throwing brickbats at one another long enough to address problems like this one.
  • 10 Investing Secrets I Wish I Knew When I Started
    One of the better articles I've read in a long time.
    Summary
    ° Investing is hard.
    ° After 20 years, I've made countless mistakes.
    ° My journey improved through a wide range of epiphanies over time.
    ° I've discovered along the way what I call investing "secrets."
    ° I hope sharing them can improve your journey.
    ARTICLE at SeekingAlpha