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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Allocation Funds Are Back
    MAFIX portfolio is under Documentation
    MAFAX and MAFCX have low minimums at $2,500.
  • Ping the Board
    US SPR status update from Twitter.
    image
    Guy's got an agenda. But I won't argue with the chart provided. WOW. Lowest since '85. Not much reserve left to tap, then.
  • Allocation Funds Are Back
    Many variations are fund specific. Moderate-allocation (MA) funds may have many moving parts.
    PRWCX isn't really a moderate-allocation funds (despite its classification as such my M* and others). It is capital-appreciation and has more of HY (65.19%). Also may have unusual positions such as recently in utilities (but top sectors now are tech, healthcare, financials) and long-time position in GE turnaround (#4 holding).
    DODBX had a policy change and is trying shorting and had beginner's luck.
    VWELX also had an untimely policy change away from value into blend/growth just as that was losing momentum.
    FBALX and FPURX have been run hot with growth orientation and higher equity % sometimes approaching aggressive-allocation (AA).
  • Allocation Funds Are Back
    :) I wasn’t recommending bonds @BaseballFan. I’ve slowly shifted away from bond exposure over the past year or two, favoring equities (both funds and individual holdings) over them. Re bonds - I’m fairly certain you’re right longer term. It would probably take some accidental “overkill” by the Fed in their efforts to slow the economy for bonds to enjoy a temporary rebound. (Roughly only about 15% of portfolio resides in bond funds).
    To replace the modifying / dampening effect of bond exposure in a conservative portfolio, I’ve beefed up exposure to alternatives and am also dabbling in a couple inverse funds. In the case of the latter, the cure might turn out to be worse than the affliction.
    None of this is intended as investment advice of course.
  • Allocation Funds Are Back
    @hank
    I dunno Mr Hank...I am not an expert for sure but for certain I am not sanguine on bonds
    I anticpated the following possiblities, scenarios and potentially negative for bond holders
    * China, Japan continue to unload US Treasuries
    *QT
    *In reality, and all political narrative BS aside...inflation continues to go up, product/services continue to go up...gas sure a little cheaper but just wait until after the mid-terms when we replenish strat stock piles at even higher prices
    *Did I mention mid term elections? I did. Wait for it. The cancelation of student debt, so more money to buy weed and shitcoins and sporty event gamblings.
    * Wait for it...next and unlike the prior statement I totally agree with, the discharge of medical debt
    * Wait for it....a complete debt jubilee once the weathy cannot pay the note on their overpriced crappy $675,000 starter homes
    *Who and how is anyone paying on the half empty commercial buildings
    *WAYYY too much debt created over the past dozen years.
    I can see laddering Tbills, 3 month, 6 month, 12 months...but everyting else...dunno, not for me
    To me. Maybe a better allocation funds are the MAFIX, BLNDX...although I am not certain if they are just lucky with their timing, were in OIL/Energy, commodities, FX at the right time? MAFIX maybe better result but more balck boxy than BLDNX? Dunno. Maybe better 50/50 3 month Tbill and solid divy paying value fund, TWEIX like?
    Good Luck to all,
    Baseball Fan
  • Allocation Funds Are Back
    While there are formal definitions for allocation funds, my definition is any mix of stocks, bonds and alternatives. So, that is target-risk funds (static/strategic allocations CA, MA, AA, WA/IB), tactical allocation (TAA with variable allocations), target-date funds (TDFs with glide-paths), multi-asset funds (suddenly touted as new and potential replacement for traditional "balanced"), 529s (age-based glide-paths & others), robo-advisors, and really most personal portfolios. So, when I hear allocation funds are dead, I have to ask, did everybody die? (-:)
  • How to Beat the Stock Market Without Even Lying
    op cit
    Notably, we find that 1,050 out of 2,870 funds made a change to their prospectus benchmarks
    at least once over a 13-year period. Because we collect data on funds’ benchmarks beginning
    in 2005, the first year in which we can detect changes is 2006. The average fund in our sample
    reports 1.44 benchmarks per year and makes 0.84 benchmark changes during our sample
    period.

    I'm glad they did the research. But there are a lot of other red flags out there like cost, load, turnover, manager investment, whether the company is publicly owned, etc.
    Funds that make at least one benchmark
    change make an average of 2.27 changes during this period, suggesting that there is a serial
    component to this behavior. Funds making at least one benchmark change also report
    significantly more benchmarks each year (1.74) than the group of funds that never makes a
    benchmark change (1.23).
    Not surprising. I had some choices like that in some retirement plans my employers got us into.
  • Rondure Global Advisors - Chairwoman's letter
    Folks can we please try to turn down the volume here. I come here as do most others to engage in thoughtful investment discussions, not to deal with political vitriol. If you don’t like her political or social views then don’t invest in the fund. Simple as that. But Lewis is right her performance for her fund category is actually good. In the top 16% over the past 5 years. No need to go after the manager like that.
  • How to Beat the Stock Market Without Even Lying
    Here is a PDF of the study Zweig referenced in his article.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    I’m not sure “thanks” are deserved here … @JohnN.
    Generally, I’d stick with a diversified long-term portfolio. What I’d argue against is trying too hard to “read the tea leaves” and making big changes (ie buying / selling) depending on what you think is going to happen (next week, next month, 6 months out etc.) Easy to get caught flat-footed. Some may have sold near the recent lows and than been caught off guard when the market suddenly turned around and jumped 15-20% in just a month or two.
    “Buying down” is dangerous. I still try occasionally. Best way is go slow. Put a set dollar amount into something and watch it. If it falls 5-10%, maybe buy a little more. Not for everyone, Buffett references “blood in the streets”. (Actually, it was Rothschild - my bad) Not all agree with that. Hard to know how much blood will flow and when it will stop flowing.
    I corrected earlier incorrect reference to Buffett.
  • Rondure Global Advisors - Chairwoman's letter
    Rondure New World, i.e, RNWOX has beaten its peers handily in the past three years with less volatility than them as well so I’m not sure what the grotesque attack on the manager’s supposed “virtue signaling” is for. If anyone bought this emerging market stock fund expecting its behavior to be comparable somehow to “a 5-year CD,” that’s on you. You shouldn’t be invested in emerging markets at all if you think that. The manager shouldn’t be blamed for the fact those markets are volatile. There’s a reason they have the word “emerging” instead of “developed” in their name.
  • Allocation Funds Are Back
    Allocation funds are back. Note that they rebound strongly after bad quarter(s). They were declared dead prematurely. Twitter LINK.
    image
  • Rondure Global Advisors - Chairwoman's letter
    Hard pass, no thanks, not for me.
    Used to invest a fraction of my portfolio, never had good results.
    Looking at some of the holdings....Sichuan Swellfun Co LTD, MatsukiyoCocokara & Co, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk PT...Huh? Quick, name what they do or where they are located.
    Whiskey Tango Foxtrot. GTFO. I'd rather invest in MSFT, CB, TEL, JNJ, EMR, PEP, JPM etc than those companies.
    Lady who runs the show seems to be on a Koombaya, virtue signaling jag....all the goods are there...I have found that whenever companies post all that stuff, their stock goes down the toilet bigly. Post stuff about carbon footprint?...huh, stop flying all over the world on the investor dime in the name of "research and boots on the ground" etc while you fulfil your wander lust...typical hypocritical virtue signalling bullshit.
    Focus on growing your business, providing a return for your investors over a simple FDIC insured 5 year CD.
    Don't lecture, don't tell us how inclusive and diverse you are...we can see the truth based on the photos of the folks who work for you.
    Baseball Fan
  • The bottom are likely in
    https://mobile.twitter.com/DeanChristians/status/1559532018299539458
    The bottom are likely in
    Good things maybe better 12 24 months from today
    Chance of another key leg down sp500 < 3650s in 4 8 wks minimal ( approaching 0 - 5%) base on previous historical models, but anything maybe possible
    Stay invested
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    In an interview with the WSJ, the Fed's James Bullard said that at next month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting he would lean towards voting for a 75 basis point rate hike. "He isn't ready to say that inflation has peaked and it remains important for the Fed to get its target rate to a range of 3.75% to 4% by year-end." To get price pressures back to the Fed's 2% target will take about 18 months. "The idea that inflation has peaked is, is a hope, but it's not statistically really in the data at this point," Mr. Bullard said.
    In a separate appearance, the Fed's Neel Kashkari reiterated that cutting interest rates in the next six to nine months isn't realistic. He expects the Fed to "raise rates to some point and then we will sit there until we get convinced that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%."
    Sorry, but it looks like the market is getting ahead of itself. If the Fed stands by its plans, the markets could experience some tough times down the road.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    ARKK is now down more than 60% for 1 year. Fell 5.92% today to close at $44.69 and than dropped about 30-cents more in after-market trading tonight, ending the week at $44.38
    Just listened to Wall Street Week’s opening 20 minutes. Two knowledgeable dudes to lead it off, Ed Hyman of Evercore and Bob Prince from Bridgewater, As far as the quagmire into which they see things devolving … “We’ve Only Just Begun” might be the song of the day.
  • Just one day, but more "red" than I've seen for awhile.....
    Hi folks
    What think about sp500 level around 12.25.2022
    ?? 4550 to 4650??
    So many bad things may go against this market -
    Inflation
    Covid resurgence in Usa
    Europe issues and energy supplies in winter/commodity issues with Ukrain
    Lack of supplies
    Feds bipolar response to market
    Sentiments
    China housing and economic concerns/china c19 policies/shutdown
    Recession world/Usa economy
    Sp500 Sideways consolidation stagnation, recession/downward spirals or moonshots +7 10%?
    Thankyou for any suggestion
    Jnn