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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Catastrophe Porfolio
    VWINX current duration is 8 years. So if rates increase 2% the bonds will drop 16%, taking the fund down 11%.
    The problem with comparisons to the 1980s is the SP500 started at very low PEs, so a lot of the return in VWINX was from the 30% equity portion. From 12/79 to 3/80 before the equity blast off VWINX lost 13%
    I would think you need something to hedge the rate increases if they come, along with faltering economic growth. Maybe real assets as mentioned, but that implies economic growth, which would also support equites.
    "this time it is different" may in fact be true today , as they has never been a comparable time with sky high equities valuations and sky high bond prices
    I worry that standard 30/70 funds will do poorly when both bonds and stocks get hit badly
  • Quality Growth: AKREX, POLRX, EGFFX
    I've held AKREX/AKRIX for a number of years and am very pleased with it. It's all about perception and expectation, I believe. If you want a LCG fund with FAANG stocks and other go-go stocks, then AKREX/AKRIX is not the vehicle.
    AKREX has performed superbly outside of 2020, when it was in the 87th percentile (-15% of LCG), BY FAR its worst relative performance.
    Unfortunately, 2020 skews its multi-year relative category performance ranking. Its annual ranks range from 1% to 29%; YTD 28%. Not bad as far as i am concerned.
    Its ten-year rank is in the 17th percentile (20.04%), again good with me. As Graust stated, its a good diversifier for other growth funds. I'll go a step further and say it's a good diversifier for most LCV and LCB funds, particularly S&P500 indexes which are top-heavy with FAANG.
    One last point, its Risk/Reward profile for all time frames is exceptional; it's also a GO fund. That's not so say there aren't better funds available, but AKREX/AKRIX is a fund to consider.
    Just one man's opinion.
    A good discussion, keep the thread alive.
    Matt
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    If there's nothing stopping one from gaming the system, one could then immediately combine those multiple accounts to meet the $50K Admiral share requirement.
    I only gave an existence proof that even if one is not a flagship customer, once one has multiple open accounts they can be combined. Combining them does not violate Vanguard's restriction on opening new accounts (which flagship customers don't have to follow, anyway). Nor does it violate Vanguard's restrictions on buying additional shares.

    Thank you for your use of the word "one" instead of "you" in your prior post.
    I am a long time Vanguard Flagship Plus client with Vanguard. Opening an account in a closed Primecap managed fund in multiple accounts was a suggestion of the Vanguard Flagship Relationship Manager. One Primecap managed fund in one account does not interest me and multiple Primecap managed funds in multiple accounts interests me even less.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    I do not own any shares in any Primecap managed fund.
    Flagship customers can open accounts, investing up to $25K in each. You don't see any reason why one cannot game the system and open[] additonal accounts at Vanguard with different account numbers and put $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year.
    If there's nothing stopping one from gaming the system, one could then immediately combine those multiple accounts to meet the $50K Admiral share requirement.
    I only gave an existence proof that even if one is not a flagship customer, once one has multiple open accounts they can be combined. Combining them does not violate Vanguard's restriction on opening new accounts (which flagship customers don't have to follow, anyway). Nor does it violate Vanguard's restrictions on buying additional shares.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    "But if you want to game the system, why stop at $25K/account? Vanguard allows shares to be moved from one account to another existing (not new) account. Sure, it took me over an hour on the phone with Vanguard years ago when I converted some shares in kind from a traditional to a Roth IRA (with existing positions in both accounts), but it can be done."
    I do not own any shares in any Primecap managed fund.
  • Vanguard Customer Service

    Now you ask, what prevents me from opening additonal accounts at Vanguard with different account numbers and put $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year?
    My answer is nothing.
    My answer is that pretty much any fund from any fund company can reject a purchase order that it chooses. Sometimes this is phrased as "a trade that would be disruptive", sometimes not.
    Each Vanguard fund reserves the right to reject any purchase request—including exchanges from other Vanguard funds—without notice and regardless of size. For example, a purchase request could be rejected because the investor has a history of frequent trading or if Vanguard determines that such purchase may negatively affect a fund’s operation or performance.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p059.pdf?2210168823
    Given that Vanguard has limited the amounts one can invest so that purchases don't negatively affect a fund, it's hardly a stretch for Vanguard to consider gaming their rules disruptive.
    But if you want to game the system, why stop at $25K/account? Vanguard allows shares to be moved from one account to another existing (not new) account. Sure, it took me over an hour on the phone with Vanguard years ago when I converted some shares in kind from a traditional to a Roth IRA (with existing positions in both accounts), but it can be done.
    So open two accounts with $25K, move the shares from one account to the other, then convert the $50K to Admiral shares. Even if you get so far as to open multiple accounts of the same type (e.g. two taxable accounts) in a closed fund, I have my doubts whether Vanguard will then let you take the next step.
    Side note: Fidelity once initially rejected a purchase order of mine for a Fidelity fund because it might have been disruptive. (Upon review, Fidelity allowed it to go through.) So this is not a matter of Vanguard being different from other families.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    Exactly. Vanguard only allows cancel order early in morning. Other times are not okay even if you call their agents.
    I will talk with their Flagship service first to see if I can get into the Investor shares first. Afterward i can add up to $25k per year until reaching the Admiral requirement, $50K.
    As Flagship, you can. If you desire, you can purchase $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity between now and the end of the year, and then purchase $25K in each after the first of the year, and convert to Admiral Shares, assuming the total in each is 50K or greater.
    Let's have some fun with this and my guess is if you call Vanguard six times, you will get three different answers. This is my understanding:
    Let's say that you have your retirement accounts with Vanguard. A Roth, Inherited, and Rollover IRA. You can purchase $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year.
    Let's say that you have four taxable accounts with Vanguard, all with different account numbers. You can purchase $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year.
    Now you ask, what prevents me from opening additonal accounts at Vanguard with different account numbers and put $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year?
    My answer is nothing.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    Exactly. Vanguard only allows cancel order early in morning. Other times are not okay even if you call their agents. I will talk with their Flagship service first to see if I can get into the Investor shares first. Afterward i can add up to $25k per year until reaching the Admiral requirement, $50K.
  • Executives at Hedge Fund Renaissance to Pay $7bn in Back Taxes
    “Top executives of Renaissance Technologies and their spouses have agreed to pay about $7 billion (€5.9 billion) in back taxes and penalties to federal authorities in connection with trades made by the quantitative hedge fund in the largest tax settlement in US history, according to people briefed on the matter. Jim Simons, a mathematician and former cold war codebreaker who founded the fund about four decades ago, will pay an additional $670 million, according to a letter the group sent to investors, which has been seen by the Financial Times.
    Dispute
    The settlement put an end to a long-running dispute linked to trades made by the firm’s Medallion fund between 2005 and 2015, when several of its executives converted short-term capital gains into long-term profits, which are taxed at a significantly lower rate. Renaissance has also counted among its top executives Robert Mercer, who financed the far-right news website Breitbart and backed several Republican political candidates including former US president Donald Trump.”

    (Originally Published in the Financial Times) https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/executives-at-hedge-fund-renaissance-to-pay-7bn-in-back-taxes-1.4664159
  • Catastrophe Porfolio
    Did a little more checking. VWINX inception date was actually 6/30/1970.
    Here is a look at the 10-year treasury trend from 1973 to 1982.
    image
    And here is a look at VWINX performance from 1973 to 1982 compared to S&P500 and VWESX (Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Inv). That was the only bond OEF that showed up in a quick google search. (better comparisons are welcome)
    image
    Nothing definitive, but those two charts don't appear to rule out the process VWINX uses to deal with an extended period of rising interest rates.
  • Retail Investors Drive Summer’s Market / FT
    “Record levels of stock buying by retail investors have helped to keep US equities marching higher through the summer months, and been the “dominant force” powering a relentless rally in the market, according to analysts at JPMorgan. US retail investors’ net purchases of stocks and exchange traded funds surged to record levels during the summer, after posting substantial inflows throughout the year, according to a measure calculated by the bank to focus on retail activity.
    The S&P 500 index of blue-chip US stocks is up 20 per cent so far this year. Global equity fund inflows, which analysts view as another indicator of retail buying, have pushed past $689bn so far this year, smashing the previous annual record set in 2017”

    Excerpted & edited for brevity from Financial Times September 6, 2021
    https://www.ft.com/content/d87c6631-55f0-4897-9634-bf0ad969e27d
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    @Sven, Flagship clients can simply enter the buy order of $25k or less in their Vanguard brokerage account and see the order in the order status.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    Flagship customers cannot initiate a position in VPMAX by investing money because that fund (share class) requires a minimum of $50,000. Even flagship customers can invest only $25K/year. However, flagship customers can open accounts in VPMCX.
    Anyone, whether flagship customer or not, can initiate a position in VPMAX by converting $50K+ from VPMCX. So an investor with an existing VPMCX account, or a flagship customer opening a new VPMCX account, could add $25K each year to VPMCX for a couple of years. Then, assuming the fund did not lose value, they could convert their shares to VPMAX.
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    According to the various prospectuses, flagship customers can open new accounts. The prospectuses don't describe the procedure.
    VPMCX:
    Vanguard PRIMECAP Fund is closed to new accounts for investors not enrolled in Vanguard Flagship Services® or Vanguard Personal Advisor Services®. Clients of these services may open new Fund accounts, investing up to $25,000 per Fund account per year as described in this supplement ...

    Several weeks ago, I asked Vanguard if Flagship customers can initiate a position in VPMAX.
    Their representative stated that this was not allowed.
    Either the Vanguard representative was wrong or the corresponding Supplement to the Prospectus (dated 2019) needs to be revised.
  • Harbor International Small Cap Investor HIISX/HAISX
    Actually, HAISX's largest outperformance in 2020 was in February, when it outperformed its peers by 2.34% (-6.57% to -8.91%). In no other month of 2020 did it outperform by 2% or better.
    In only two other months did it outperform its peers by over 1%, and one of those months was January. It paced its peers in March, -19.81% vs. -19.96%.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=HAISX
    From March 20, 2020 through the end of 2020, it underperformed its peers, gaining 66.42% vs. its peers' 75.20%. See M* chart here.
    66.42% is not chopped liver, so it's fair to say that it took off "after last major market correction". But it's not fair to suggest that it outperformed or even matched its peers because of the bounce.
    Regarding those five attempts: Between April 30, 2019 and July 31, 2019, the new management substantially overhauled the portfolio. This became in effect a new fund. The only holdings kept (if I read correctly) were:
    Senior PLC (aerospace), added 10%, totals 1.9% of fund
    JAFCO Ltd, Japan (capital markets), 2.5% of fund
    April 30, 2019 semiannual statement, HAISX portfolio
    July 31, 2019 quarterly schedule of holdings, HAISX portfolio
  • Re; Ed Studzinsky's September commentary

    I should correct my earlier statement that ALAAX held some Oppenheimer funds in 2008. The symbol for ALAAX suggests it’s an old Aim fund that Invesco picked up prior to merging with Oppenheimer. In that case, it could not have included any Oppenheimer funds in 2008. Perhaps that highlights that care must be taken when comparing long term records, as funds can change substantially over a number of decades.
    FWIW, in 2008, ALAAX held:
    AIM Core Bond Fund 17.91%
    AIM Diversified Dividend Fund 14.08%
    AIM Floating Rate Fund 7.32%
    AIM High Yield Fund 14.19%
    AIM Income Fund 8.65%
    AIM International Core Equity Fund 4.67%
    AIM International Total Return Fund 5.07%
    AIM Real Estate Fund 0.00%
    AIM Select Real Estate Fund 6.66%
    AIM Short Term Bond Fund 6.20%
    AIM U.S. Government Fund 7.22%
    AIM Utilities Fund 8.24%
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/202032/000095012908004762/h58575nvcsrs.txt
    These in turn all changed name from AIM to Invesco in 2010. It took just 14 years after Invesco acquired AIM to make the change.
    https://www.invesco.com/pdf/BRAND-FLY-1-E.pdf?contentGuid=3841df8
    https://www.nytimes.com/1996/11/05/business/invesco-to-acquire-aim-for-1.6-billion.html
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    According to the various prospectuses, flagship customers can open new accounts. The prospectuses don't describe the procedure.
    VPMCX:
    Vanguard PRIMECAP Fund is closed to new accounts for investors not enrolled in Vanguard Flagship Services® or Vanguard Personal Advisor Services®. Clients of these services may open new Fund accounts, investing up to $25,000 per Fund account per year as described in this supplement ...
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/sp59.pdf?2210151539
    VPCCX (allowing flagship customers to invest unlimited amounts in existing or new accounts):
    Vanguard PRIMECAP Core Fund is closed to new accounts for investors not enrolled in Vanguard Flagship Services® or Vanguard Personal Advisor Services®. Clients of these services may open new Fund accounts, without purchase limitations
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/sp1220.pdf?2210151473
  • Harbor International Small Cap Investor HIISX/HAISX
    The Schwab reports once in 5 attempts in top 25% . It took off , like so many other funds, after last major market correction. Watch list here.
    Derf
  • Vanguard Customer Service
    @msf said:
    One cannot open a new account in a Vanguard PRIMECAP fund (Primecap, Primcap Core, Capital Opportunity) unless one is a flagship customer at Vanguard. As Vanguard closes other funds it usually (but not always) continues to make the funds available to flagship customers. Only flagship customers at Vanguard can add more than $25K/year to VPCCX.
    Correct me if I am wrong. I don't think you can open new account with closed Primecap funds. Do you need to talk with a representative?
  • Re; Ed Studzinsky's September commentary
    Good numbers. As an aside, you’ve shown that ALAAX currently holds substantially more fixed income than PRSIX.
    PRSIX = 41.21% fixed income
    ALAAX = 49.83% fixed income
    Difference = 8.62%
    Truth be told, a higher % in fixed income (ALAAX) would have led to somewhat lower returns in the period since 2008 as interest rates (even on junk bonds) have been mostly low single-digit while equities have been in a prolonged bull market (IMHO a reason to disavow them on occasion ).
    In saying that a fund with a higher percentage of fixed income would do worse when equities are soaring, you're assuming that more fixed income means less equity, that the investment universe is partitioned into fixed income and equity. That meshes well with a broad concept of fixed income as described by BlackRock:
    What is fixed income investing?
    Fixed income is an investment approach focused on preservation of capital and income. It typically includes investments like government and corporate bonds, CDs and money market funds. Fixed income can offer a steady stream of income with less risk than stocks.
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/education/fixed-income
    Here are the equity figures for the two funds, using this broad sense of fixed income:
    ALAAX "equity" (non-fixed income) =
    100% - 49.83% "fixed income" (narrow sense) - 5.17% "cash" (e.g. TRPXX) =
    45.00% "equity"
    PRSIX "equity" (non-fixed income) =
    100% - 41.21% "fixed income" (narrow sense) - 13.72% "cash" (e.g. TRP Reserve Investment Funds) =
    45.07% "equity"
    No difference, broadly speaking.
    When M* gives a breakdown by credit rating of "fixed income", it is using "fixed income" in a narrow sense. Recognizing that M* is using "fixed income" narrowly, perhaps a more complete calculation for ALAAX's junk bond holdings would be:
    "Fixed income": 28.31% junk x 49.83% = 14.11%
    "Cash":               0.00% junk x   5.17% =   0.00%
    "Equity":              0.00% junk x  45.00% =  0.00%

    Total portfolio:                             100%     14.11% junk