Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Auto insurance
    @Derf,
    I remember the chip was at eye level on the driver side. It was 5-10 years ago. The fix has held up. The kits are sold by all chain auto parts shops (Amazon might have it too). You have to use it before the chip becomes a spreading crack.
    @Davidrmoran, So sorry for what you went through. I hope you make full recovery. I will keep the uninsured motorist insurance. I keep both bodily injury liabilities at $300/600k.
  • Auto insurance
    I understand it's about minimizing Insurance Cost $/Yr but
    What about Umbrella Insurance on top of Auto Liability coverage ?
    If due to Old age or any unknown reason you or spouse hit someone else?
    Lawsuit are always in Million$+,going nearby or going to say grocery store/errand or within 10 mile radius from home ? Don't need It ?
    Thanks.
    Majick
    Well. I got hit by a car a year ago, not horribly horribly serious yet well worth avoiding, but fractured my pelvis and was laid up for close to a month (meaning awful, awful leg muscle loss ffs). $190k total healthcare costs paid for MC and the various insurances. This all in a no-fault state.
    The driver's Commerce liability / injury policy is good for $100k, and that paper check less 30-33% for the PI atty comes to me next week. My own AmFam (Costco) policy (underinsured yada) is good for $250k less his $100k, so $150k less the PI cut is said to be in the works. (No Medicare lien yet, though always a possibility.) My umbrella was not involved, possibly a foolish choice in checking boxes.
    I mention this adventure because even in a 'low-value' case, much less one with greater injury and loss or death, these coverages help prevent the liable party from being gone after bigtime. As I understand it. This driver (elderly, meaning my age; clean record) has property and a summer place to boot, all jointly held, but my attorney told me in different / worse circumstances it might well be worth chasing, and different PI firms take different tacks. (Mine is classy and genteel, and my atty said she spends a lot of her time sadly explaining to families that, e.g., medical shit happens, or the other driver is from out of state and seriously underinsured and has no assets, and so on.)
    So: for self-protection and especially if one has a sense of ethics as to liability, it is probably smart to get as hefty injury coverages as is feasible. I'm kind of waving my hands here and at the limit of my insurance details knowledge; I hope others more informed weigh in.
    Everyone loves no-fault even if it means your own company is giving you serious moneys because it's fast and efficient and the common alternative is endless litigation at all amount levels.
    [As for details some might ask, I was in a crosswalk (local hospital parking lot, no less) at dusk and he was slightly speeding and in physical distress to the ER (where I was also headed, having just dropped off my wife). He did brake but I was thrown like 12' or more. All on security video, eesh. I was treated and then sent downtown for screwbolts and more. I discovered the complete heavenliness of fentanyl. No wonder it's such a problem.
    [A year of quad and calf / ankle PT, raises and half-squats and lunges and whatnot, has not been fully restorative. This following tedious recovery from serious pelvis and nerve pains. I can now climb stairs normal foot over foot but need a railing, and certainly could not carry an infant or a bag of groceries; and my general footing and stability remain subpar. Supposedly it'll come by fall. My personal goal is to be able to shoot a normal free throw. Seems far off still.
    [For the criminal part of the story, the state prosecuting in my behalf, the driver's idiot lawyer rejected initial judge summer offer of probation (onerous in Mass. to an extent) and opted for jury trial. Which they lost on all counts in a record half-hour. I coulda been crawling drunk in the crosswalk and he woulda been liable and so found negligent. (Unless you jump out from behind a bush, in other words.) The lenient judge sentenced him to 2 more months of no driving (totaling a year) and I think 18mos' probation w weekly check-in. No fines, some court costs. The asst DA told me the driver's dealings with his insurance company and then with RMV, including coursework and retraining, will be not pleasant. Plus if you run a stop sign, much less get some worse citation, you can be incarcerated promptly.
    [It turns out the full guilt findings and speed of verdict actually sway the insurance companies on the civil action side, which I guess I get.]
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    @davidmoran,
    The honest answer is that I don’t have a good idea of whether BND and VGIT can get 4% total return in 2025.
    After 3 rate cuts (a total of 100 bps reduction) in 2024, both BND and VGIT were disappointing with TR of 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively. Many bond investors include myself were hoping the rate cut would boost bond prices. However, the longer term treasuries went up considerably that negatively impacted the intermediate- and longer-term treasury prices. It appears the yield curve is slowly reverse its course. Here is Friday’s data on treasury yield:
    https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025
    Ironically, the short term treasury and corporate bond funds were affected to a lesser degree. Both VGSH and VCSH returned 4.0% and 5.0%, respectively in 2024.
    Going forward, there is uncertain how much the FED will cut rate (or few) in light of strong labor market and lack of signs of slowing of the economy. If inflation returns and rises above 2024, we may see a repeat of 2024 or worse.
    For income investors, floating rate treasury ETF, USFR should do better than BND and USFR; 30 days SEC yield 5.05% as of 9/30/24 per WisdomTree website. It may be a tad below 5.0% now.
    The other alternative is buying 1 yr Treasury note at auction that yields 4.313% (CUSIP 91282CMFS). If interested, you need to put in your order before midnight today at Fidelity.
    In light of the uncertainty, we will stay with short term bonds.
  • the January issue of MFO is live
    Hi, guys.
    A fairly miserable weekend for much of the nation (and for Steeler Nation, particularly). I hope we're able to bring some satisfaction to the end of it. Lynn encourages young investors to think in long-term terms. Shadow reveals what was in the shadows. We do a Launch Alert on Virtus KAR Mid-Cap, a way to access an really strong institutional strategy at a steep discount. Speaking of launching an ETF, this month, Charles shares, “You Too Can Start an ETF,” which attempts to highlight the burgeoning ETF marketplace and the challenges we, investors, and advisors face in understanding just who is behind the various strategies being offered. There's a longish piece on infrastructure investing, which makes me a little sad since half the reason that infrastructure might be profitable is that we've sort of screwed ourselves on climate change moderation. And again, dozens of reasons to be optimistic as we begin an interesting new year.
    A pessimist might say "99% of people are just in it for themselves." An optimist could reply, "well, that translates to 75,000,000 people worldwide devoting their lives to making the world a better place." And there's fair evidence that they're succeeding. We should take some comfort in, and offer what support we can to, their efforts.
    January Term starts first thing in the morning. Pray for my students!
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    If workable, legally sell the house to a relative or trusted friend & live on mortgage payments. Terms could be mutually beneficial.
    Except for the mortgage payment part, this sounds like the deal Harlan Crow made to buy Clarance Thomas' mother's house (formerly owned by Clarance, his mother, and his deceased brother's family). Gives a whole new meaning to "trusted friend".
    Thomas' mother got to stay in the house rent free by retaining a life estate. That's where she still owned (had exclusive right to use/occupy) the house until she died. Using a life estate as partial payment for the purchase introduces a couple of tricky items:
    - The holder of the life estate (being owner of the moment of the house) is still responsible for property taxes. Crow's company paid the taxes.
    - Since the buyer paid not only the dollar amount agreed upon but gave the seller(s) a life estate, ISTM the sale price is the dollar amount plus the value of that life estate (based on life expectancy). The Thomas sale was supposedly structured where the life estate was part of the deal. Alternatively, if the life estate is not part of the purchase price, then it is a gift from buyer to seller, triggering gift tax filings.
    Instead of using a life estate, the seller could simply pay rent. That often happens short term in real estate sales. The old owner needs a few extra days to move out, so they pay rent to the buyer starting on the closing date.
    Regarding capital gains on any seller financed sale, the IRS provides a nice loophole. (I learned about this just a couple of years ago when a relative looked into selling some property and financing the sale.)
    You and I might think of a seller financed sale as a completed sale (complete with recognized cap gains) plus a mortgage held by the seller. But the IRS looks at this as no different from an installment sale. As such, the seller recognizes cap gains in parts over the lifetime of the mortgage.
    https://www.sellerfinancedream.com/resource-center/seller-financing-tax-benefits-and-seller-financing-tax-implications
    This can help tremendously if the seller would have a large taxable gain (in excess of the $250K/$500K home sale exclusion).
  • Auto insurance
    We had to max the autos to get an umbrella policy.
    My experience is that they typically require 250/500 or 300/300. It doesn't matter whether your auto insurer offers higher limits or not, you just buy the min required. Admittedly, that amount is usually near the max even if it isn't quite there.
  • Auto insurance
    Lawsuit are always in Million$+
    A plaintiff can sue for almost any dollar amount, but if it doesn't bear some relationship to the harm done, it's a meaningless number. As far as actual awards go, though multimillion dollar settlements get the headlines, they are few and far between.
    https://www.gatewayinjurylaw.com/blog/average-personal-injury-settlement/#car
    Nevertheless they can happen so I do have an umbrella policy.
    It's difficult but not impossible to get umbrella insurance without getting it from the same insurer that covers your home and/or car(s). Even if you get it through your current insurer, they may use a third party company. It's often better (read cheaper) if you can get a bundled plan where the umbrella part isn't outsourced.
    A few months ago, I got quotes from RLI (both standalone and through another insurer). All their polices over $1M would have cost me significantly more than $1K. Of course each person's situation is different. You can check out their rates yourself.
    https://www.rlicorp.com/personal-insurance/personal-umbrella-insurance
    within 10 mile radius from home ?
    Supposedly, most accidents occur within 10 miles of home. Here's one old (2015) study:
    Among 3,280 patients (2005-2010), 88% were injured within 10 miles of home (median 0.2 miles). There were significant differences in distance between residence and location of injury based on mechanism of injury, age and hospital disposition. The large majority of injuries involving children, the elderly, pedestrians, cyclists, falls, and assaults occurred less than 10 miles from the patient's residence. Only 77% of MVC [motor vehicle collisions] occurred within 10 miles of the patient's residence.
    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4375775/
  • H5N1 - bird flu pandemic for humans
    Not getting enough attention. Various betting sites give a probability of 13-24% of this becoming a pandemic in 2025. May be not scientific but more akin to sentiment. Sentiment is what moves the stock market. Those odds do not look trivial to me. Hopefully, with the new administration, with their promised light touch on regulation / governance, can stay on top the second time around.
    The world has not recovered fully from the after effects from the first one. If this gets into China, its economy may never recover.
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    Reverse mortgages have issues. They are expensive to set up. They may use only 50-60% of the equity to give the bank a margin of safety. It should be seen as a last resort option.
    If workable, legally sell the house to a relative or trusted friend & live on mortgage payments. Terms could be mutually beneficial.
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    Question: How many have turned to annuities or "annuity - like" strategies to increase your income spending?
    When I retired 13 years ago, I attempted to project my future spending needs. Over these years I have meet my spending needs with a combination of pension income (with a COLA), an Annuity Income (Savings that I converted to an Annuity), and some part time work. Since retirement, I have continue to contribute to my HSA and my IRA with contributions from part time work income. Recently I began managing one of my properties as a seasonal rental for additional income. I will work part time spending some of that work income and saving some into an IRA until age 73. My RMDs will then become a forced taxable event that may turn into an income source if needed or taxable savings if not needed.
    What type of a portfolio would you design as an "Annuity - like" strategy for yourself? Maybe a combinations of Balanced mutual funds/EFTs that distribute periodically? Am I describing the 4% rule?
    Shifting from a mindset of saving for retirement to a mindset of confidently spending in retirement is a huge challenge we all face.
    Sourced through Ron Berger's Weekly email Newsletter:
    https://robberger.com/newsletter/
    Working Paper:
    Retirre's Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings
    Abstract: The shift to defined contribution savings plans means that more retirees must fund spending
    from savings. Prior studies find that there appears to be a behavioral resistance to spending down
    savings after retirement in a manner that is consistent with life cycle models. We explore how lifetime
    income, wage income, capital income, qualified savings, and nonqualified savings are used to fund
    retirement spending. We find that retirees spend far more from lifetime income than other categories of
    wealth. Approximately 80% of lifetime income is consumed, on average, versus only approximately half or
    other available savings and income sources. Overall, the analysis suggests that converting savings into
    lifetime income could increase retirement consumption significantly, especially for married households.
  • FDIC Coverage Types
    FDIC Coverage Types from Bankrate has simple explanations and a useful table.
    Image (Table) https://i.ibb.co/Wz0SLjX/FDIC-Coverage-Types-Bankrate-010525.png
    Link https://www.bankrate.com/small-business/checking/fdic-and-business-bank-accounts
    Edit/Add. Bankrate's angle is for business account coverage, but it also mentions other coverages in passing. So, some details are overlooked - such as that the trust accounts (including POD/TOD) at the same bank are now limited to $1,250,000 as of 4/1/24.
    https://edie.fdic.gov/rulechange.html
    image
  • Updated MFO Ratings: March ... MTD Thru 25 April
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 3 January 2025, reflecting risk and return metrics thru December. Flows are also posted through Friday, 3 January.
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    The news is that the WEP & GPO repeal bill will be signed on 1/6/25 (Monday).
    SSA also has put some information on its website. It says that after the bill becomes effective, the SSA will recalculate the benefits for those who have filed & had the benefits reduced due to WEP & GPO (so, those people should just wait and be patient). But those who didn't file because their benefits were completely eliminated by WEP & GPO should file online.
    https://www.ssa.gov/benefits/retirement/social-security-fairness-act.html
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    jan. 3rd, 2025. Earl Davis (BMO) is adding duration.
  • U.S. Treasury work stations hacked by China, December 8 + 9 telecoms
    Richard Forno, assistant director of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County Cybersecurity Institute, said the Chinese efforts were being directed at a variety of targets.
    "It's more generic information gathering, let's see what we can get into, and see what we can find," he said.

    UMBC. Once every blue moon while at school on Maiden Choice Lane, some of us walked to the Ratskellar at UMBC. See how the other half lives, LOL. I have a cousin who took her undergrad degree there. St. Mary's on MC Lane is gone now. But the retirement Apt. complex which moved in (Carrollton or Charles Town? I forget) has kept up the chapel. I toured it once. A lot more livable than when I inhabited the place.
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    @Sven, @FD1k, what's your guess as to whether BND and VGIT will gain 4% in 2025?
  • The American Worker Is Becoming More Productive
    The review provided in the attached article indicates AI helped American workers increase their productivity in 2024. Strong stock market returns in 2024 appear have been largely based that increase as well as AI's potential to significantly increase long term productivity growth.
    My dividend focused portfolio was 71% invested in stocks as of 1/1/24 and returned 15.7% in 2024. Per Fido, the largest driver of my 2024 returns came from the Information Tech stock sector which increased from 10% to 15% of my portfolio holdings during that time (AVGO is currently represents 39% of the holdings in that category).
    What will happen in 2025? The promise of AI remains alive and it appears that it continues to animate the stock market. I am currently tempted to let the 3% increase in the % of stocks in my portfolio during 2024 ride in 2025 as I suspect the stock market will probably cling to the promise of AI for a while longer (my investment portfolio is taxable so harvesting capital gains is a consideration).
    Any thoughts will be appreciated as I finalize my list of any beginning of the year adjustments. (So far nothing has made it to that list.)
    Increased Worker Productivity
  • Maturing CDs
    I see mostly men posting about the lack of financial interest from their wives. Individually find out the root cause for yourself and your role in it. As Yogi said, others can guess but can be wrong. If you need help, ask another woman for the cause. There may be a few in this forum.
    Great post YBB.

    I don't think it is a gender issue. I think is a marital relationship issue, and what is unique in that marital relationship regarding finances and investing.
    Per this source, um, it is at least part gender issue, or at least it can be stratified as such:
    https://www.newyorklife.com/newsroom/2024/survey-highlights-existing-financial-confidence-and-knowledge-gaps-between-men-and-women
    Excerpt (BOLD addded):
    NEW YORK - The latest findings from New York Life’s Wealth Watch survey provide insights into the existing financial confidence and knowledge gaps between men and women. Confidence is the top emotion that men report feeling toward managing their household finances (45%) while stress is the leading emotion for women (38%). The survey found that women report feeling the most knowledgeable about paying bills, maintaining good credit, and saving for emergencies. However, they report feeling significantly less knowledgeable than their male counterparts about building wealth, creating investment portfolios, understanding protection products like insurance, and legacy planning.
    Plenty of other stratified M/F data included in study for anyone interested in facts over opinions.
    That said, the data pretty much ties to what my 40-50 years of work and investing experience has taught me and what I've posted previously here.
    Aside: I worked in audit shops my entire career. By chance, the composition was generally skewed more towards women than men. Many were VERY bright people, including plenty of MBAs, CPAs and CAOs, with our reports going to upper mgmt and high level clients.
    I always wanted to discuss investments, portfolios and wealth management with anyone else interested, including auditees and those to whom we reported. So did the vast majority of the men I worked under/managed. Conversely, the women, many highly educated and certified in high level finance positions, were largely uninterested, uneducated and inexperienced in wealth mgmt.
    Puhleeease don't take these remarks as sexist. They are not and I am not. Take them for what they are: my real-life experiences in the financial world. These experiences are what convinced me the best way to tend to my wife's financial future if I pass first was to educate her as best I could on wealth management.