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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    It is irritating. May be comical?
    Schwab has issued ANOTHER corrected 1099 in September involving the SAME short-term muni fund FLTDX from Nuveen/TIAA. Again, the changes are for transactional CGs (ST, LT), and not in reported income or CG distributions. As these changes are related to mutual fund cost-basis recordkeeping, the issue can be with Schwab and/or Nuveen/TIAA. The total underreporting of CGs is now $50 (vs $30 in August correction). I may not do anything still.
    If you didn't hold FLTDX, this won't apply to you.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Let’s hope that August’s CPI number releases on Tuesday, Sept 13 is lowered than than of July, peaking of inflation maybe the turning point of the Fed to slowdown the rate hike. Many said a 50 bps is more likely. Think I will buy more treasury after the rate hike and hold them to maturity.
    I have been trading commodity futures in and out several times this year. Winter is several months away. Energy and food may lead the market again.
  • Harbor Emerging Markets Equity and Money Market Funds to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312522242476/d384549d497.htm
    497 1 d384549d497.htm HARBOR FUND - SAI SUPPLEMENT

    111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
    Chicago, IL 60606-4302
    harborcapital.com
    Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2022
    September 12, 2022
    Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve Harbor Emerging Markets Equity Fund and Harbor Money Market Fund (each, a “Fund”). The liquidation of each Fund is expected to occur on December 9, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”). The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Funds on the Liquidation Date.
    Shareholders may exchange shares of a Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of a Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Funds’ prospectus, until the Liquidation Date.
    In order to ready the Funds for liquidation, each Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned Liquidation Date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that each Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective as stated in the Funds’ prospectus.
    Because the Fund will be liquidating, Harbor Emerging Markets Equity Fund is now closed to new investors. Harbor Money Market Fund was closed to new investors after the close of business on Friday, May 15, 2020 and will remain closed. The Funds will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on November 25, 2022. As of the Liquidation Date, the checkwriting privilege for shareholders in Harbor Money Market Fund will terminate. Effective immediately, check books will no longer be issued. Any checks written prior to the date of this supplement will be honored. Any checks written after the date of this supplement will be payable until the Liquidation Date.
  • AlphaCentric Income Opportunities - A Cautionary Tale
    Another piece of the puzzle, at least in 2021, last time I held any shares in it, was that a chunk of the distribution was ROC. At one point in the last quarter, the ROC for the year was 50% of the total distribution. The actual income was pitiful.
  • Wasatch re-opens six funds
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/806633/000119312522239572/d269934d497.htm
    The following funds are no longer "soft-closed":
    -Wasatch Core Growth
    -Wasatch Small Cap Growth
    -Wasatch Ultra Growth
    -Wasatch Small Cap Value
    -Wasatch Micro Cap
    -Wasatch International Opportunities
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    FPA New Income fund has done much better than majority of multi-asset bond funds this year, -2.6%. @AndyJ has a good point that money market funds now yield about 2%. After interest rate hike in September (expecting 50 bps), money market funds would yield over 2.5%.
    If liquidity is not an issue, short term CDs and treasury (3-9 months) are offering yields over 2-3%. When the Fed starts to cut rates, core bonds will become attractive again.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Edgar reports PRWCX's quarterly GE holdings as:
    12/31/21 25,143,114 shares, 4.41% of holdings
    03/31/22 21,712,776 shares, 3.80%
    06/30/22 21,005,868 shares, 2.93%
    GE stock is nearly unchanged since 07/31 (ignoring the 8¢ dividend on 08/25). It would have to be less than 2.19% of PRWCX assets to fall off the 08/31 top ten list. That's ~27% less than the 3.01% at the end of July, so it looks like a healthy fraction, if not all, was sold during August.
  • Quantitative tightening
    There is quite a bit of talk about QT and that it going full steam from mid-September at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries and -$35 billion/mo for MBS. This can go on for a while.
    Also mentioned is that the Treasury market is large and liquid and can handle -$60 billion/mo as roll off. But MBS market is not large or liquid enough and -$35 billion/mo cannot be achieved through roll off alone. So, that means that the Fed would have to sell some MBS. Impact of that would be felt in mortgage rates.
    What is less talked about is the indirect rate increase effect of QT and there are some guesstimates on it. But even the Fed isn't clear on this. There isn't much history on QE or QT (remember, QE was considered a new innovative tool). All one can say is that the mix of rate hikes and QT is a potent combo and its effects are underappreciated.
    As has happened in the past, monetary tightening tends to produce some financial accident, crisis or disaster (here or globally). We don't know if the collapse of speculative stocks and cryptos were those - so, keep your fingers crossed and be on the lookout for more disasters.
  • The Lonely Bull
    Hi Sirs (Crash Hank Yogibearbull) been dca weekly sp500 and xlf great long terms good vehicles... Can't go wrong w SPY and XLF)
    Also 50 bucks monthly into bit coins btc-cash(BCHUSD) prob think sale once BTC get to 45 50k or so see how memontum turns in 12 24 MONTHS ....who knows may run up to 78k again w new bull cycles (may run 3 4 more yrs)... Also added lithium etf and SGML Chpt last wk. Musk think these will tripple in 4 5 yrs
    Also dca monthly into TNA SPXL TQQQ
    Maybe easier and more lazy way to do
    Lots pundits saying we maybe near bottom 8th of fear/bear cycle run (last 7-9 months) hard to say. Price may not be cheaper in 3 months
    Sometime no time to find good vehicles like you did weekly scalpings other wise/good finds will do more research.
    Rumors on Wall Street say Hedge funds started to buy small caps etf last wk or so thinking new bull cycles emerging/baby bull born??!!! ... We will find out in 7-12 wks... If Feds pivoting ease Qt Oct meeting
    Good luck.. Thank you for suggestions
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Doesn't seem like there's much of a case for that fund right now: distribution yield is right at 2%, with capital risk and bonds still under pressure, when you can get that or more in a money market fund (e.g., FZDXX at 2.21%) or T-bill held to maturity, without capital risk (just bought a 13-wk. bill at 2.965%).
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Price website shows Top 10 monthly. I suppose after admitting that he was frustrated and not happy with GE, he decided to sell - it is gone from Top 10 but he may be holding a small position. Here is the monthly status of GE (scroll to Holdings/Top 10 Holdings),
    https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/capital-appreciation-fund.html
    Date, %, #
    12/31/21, 4.41%, 4
    1/31/22, 4.59%, 4
    2/28/22, 4.67%, 3
    3/31/22, 3.79%, 3
    4/30/22, 3.22%, 2
    5/31/22, 3.38%, 3
    6/30/22, 3.05%, 4
    7/31/22, 3.01%, 4
    8/31/22, Gone from Top 10
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    I noticed on the TRP website for the portfolio of PRWCX dated 8/31/22 that GE is no longer listed as a top 10 holding. Don't know if this is due to trimming the position a bit or total elimination of it.
    Yes, and TRP is clunky when it comes to looking at a fund's portfolio beyond the top 10. In fact, I found it IMPOSSIBLE to find. Geniuses at work there, on their website. Clicking on the link labeled "See complete holdings" takes you around in circles---to nowhere.
    Dated 30th June, '22, from Giroux:
    "So why do we continue to hold GE? First, we have a large catalyst over the next 18 months as GE will be split into three companies. The health care business will be spun off in early 2023 and we believe this security will receive an attractive valuation given its mid-single-digit organic growth rate, margin expansion opportunity, double-digit earnings growth, and strong free cash flow. Second, the power and renewables businesses will be spun off in 2024. The leader who turned around the power business is now leading the renewables business and we have high hopes that it will be a mid-single-digit operating margin business by 2025–2026 under his leadership. Today, the market is effectively capitalizing the losses in renewables forever. The renewables business does not deserve to have an 11-figure negative value just because it is currently losing money. Third, aviation is a great business that should be poised for a decade-plus of excellent growth given how young its fleet of engines is (many have yet to go through their first or second overhaul). The sooner this business is freed from the renewables business, the better. Fourth, and maybe most importantly, even using conservative assumptions we believe the upside in GE is still substantial. When I look back over the last four years of GE, the company has had some incredibly bad luck between COVID, the supply chain, Russia, and a sudden decline in wind turbines due to a lack of renewal of the wind tax credit. But these haven’t been the only problems with our investment in GE; I have also made some process errors along the way. The range of outcomes and degree of predictability of GE has always been larger than many of our other large holdings, and as such it should have been a much smaller holding. While I continued adding to GE during periods of weakness, I was less aggressive reducing the position during periods of strength..."
  • The Lonely Bull
    image
    Just viewed Bloomberg’s Wall Street Week. Won’t link to it because there’s a running thread that someone updates weekly. And, also, wasn’t too impressed with the main guests - although Rick Rieder (Blackrock) is always fun and informative to listen to.
    E-Gads the overall tone in all the media is so bearish - even with the S&P off more than 15% YTD and the NASDAQ down more than 20%. I won’t state an opinion on market direction remainder of the year. Will say I’m more optimist longer term than 90% of the “experts.” I always find it odd that folks prefer to buy equities when they’ve been red hot rather than after they’ve cooled down and gotten cheaper. There may well be a recession out there somewhere. But this baby’s been the most over-predicted recession I can ever remember. Likely, stock and bond valuations have already experienced some heavy “discounting” in the eyes of the storm watchers.
    Psychology seems to go something like this: Dow falls 500 points from near 37,000 to 36,500 and a fella races in to “buy the dip.” A year later, Dow has fallen 5,000 points to 31,000 - 32,000 and now it’s something those (now reformed) dippers won’t lay a hand on. :)
    Interesting Observation: “With bullish sentiment having averaged a reading of only 24.22% in 2022, it is below the previous runner-up and record low of 27.29% and 27.08% in 1988 and 1990, respectively. That low average is thanks to twenty weeks so far this year where bullish sentiment has been below 25%.”
    SOURCE
  • Interesting “Portfolio Visualizer” App
    I was looking for a way to understand the risk characteristics of my total portfolio and well as sub-sets within the whole.
    This free app does all that. But it’s a “royal pain” to understand & use at first. I’ve spent close to 2 hours playing with it and inputting various portfolios. Handles funds and stocks. Easy to register. Use a nickname if you prefer and your choice of email for a confirmation code. Nothing else required.
    What I’ve been able to do so far:
    - Save 3 portfolios (the main one plus 2 sub-sets)
    - Compare multiple years’ performance / volatility (including current) on a variety of formats (bar, graph, etc.) to a chosen benchmark (changeable when desired)
    - By clicking “metrics” pull up a wide range of metrics applicable to a given portfolio. The benchmark selected defaults to a “beta” of 1. I found, for example, that my overall beta is about .95% of one of TRP’s conservative 40/ 60 funds. For those concerned about “drawdown” it calculates those numbers as well.
    - It’s possible ro run some tests before registering. I used my “Alternative Assets” sub-portfolio with just 7 holdings for that purpose.
    - Would be interested to know if anyone else finds this thing useful and in what ways.
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/
  • Single Bond/Treasury ETFs
    just looked at new issue auctions for Treasuries at Fidelity. the official schedule shows many bills 4 week, 8 week, 26 week etc for Tuesday, but the FIDO trading platform only shows 5 Bills earliest maturing Dec 2022.
    Can you access the full auction at FIDO or do they limit it?
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    September 9, 2022
    This weekend’s guest who recently reopened his fund to new investors because of the “improved opportunity set.” He is Tom Atteberry, now Senior Advisor to FPA New Income Fund having just retired, as planned, from his portfolio manager duties in July of this year. He had been Portfolio Manager of the fund since 2004.
    Atteberry will discuss why they have reopened the fund and where they are investing now. He will also share his current preference for asset-backed bonds over Treasuries and corporates.


  • Enbridge Line 5 court decision
    "Since 1999, Enbridge's Line 5 has transported nearly 80 million barrels of Michigan-produced crude oil. That works out to an average of approximately 14,000 barrels each day."
    But, then I found this:
    "The Enbridge terminal at Superior conveys western Canadian crude oil from various incoming pipelines (including lines 1–4) to Line 5 and Line 6, which go around the northern and southern shores of Lake Michigan respectively." (Wiki.) ...So, I expect the MICHIGAN oil is only part of the total.
  • Enbridge Line 5 court decision
    Anyone know how “product” is sourced into this pipeline? I assume in Duluth/Superior but that’s not clear. Edit - I think Wikipedia answers my questions.
    https://www.enbridge.com/projects-and-infrastructure/public-awareness/line-5-michigan/about-line-5
    “Line 5 supplies 65% of propane demand in the Upper Peninsula, and 55% of Michigan's statewide propane needs. Overall, Line 5 transports up to 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light crude oil, light synthetic crude, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are refined into propane”
  • Saver's Credit and HSA
    @MrRuffles,
    My Insurance plan is a government subsidized (due to my low income) HDHP ($6500 deduction) plan and is an HSA qualified Plan. Not all HSA owners are upper income.
    My question is pertinent to low income, young, healthy individuals who have an HSA as an option. The Saver's Credit is directed at the low income.
    But the ability to invest an HSA for the long-term as an investment vehicle for retirement only works if either: (1) you have little need for healthcare throughout your adult life or (2) you have enough disposable income to pay for your healthcare expenses out-of-pocket and don’t need to tap your HSA.
    HSA’s were sold as a means to lower the cost of health insurance through HDHP’s but give a tax break for medical expenses for people who couldn’t afford higher premiums. Of course, like everything else in our assbackwards US healthcare system, it turned into a case of the tail wagging the dog.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Thanks @Catch22,
    Not wanting to give the wrong impression, I did the math and ARKK currently accounts for 1.75% of portfolio. As stated earlier, a counterbalancing / parallel consumer staples stock is of roughly equal weight (3.5% combined). Per Mark Antony, “Bravery should be made of sturner stuff.” :)
    The best way to view my current take on risk (in a widely diverse portfolio) is to look at the % allocated to all forms of fixed income, including cash. My normal fixed income allocation is 20-25%. It is currently at 19%, putting me at a slightly higher than normal risk exposure. Should markets experience a prolonged uptick, I’ll increase fixed income / reduce risk.
    -
    The stated fixed income allocation is a “raw” number and does not include additional amounts that may be held inside allocation & alternative type funds.