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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • possible RR strike coming
    NBC and NPR also reported the same news too.
    https://nbcnews.com/news/us-news/biden-announces-tentative-deal-avert-us-rail-strike-rcna47850
    Excerpt from NPR,
    The deal also includes changes to workplace attendance policies that workers found overly punitive. Under the tentative agreement, workers will be able to take time off for medical care without facing discipline, the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen and the SMART Transportation Division confirmed in a joint statement.
    https://npr.org/2022/09/15/1123114110/biden-says-a-tentative-railway-labor-deal-has-been-reached-averting-a-strike
    Digging deeper into this story, there is a lot going on that the public is not aware of.
    https://npr.org/2022/09/14/1122918098/railroads-freight-rail-union-strike-train-workers
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/14/22
    Bearish sentiment is still very high, 1.57*SD above average. But less extreme than last week when it reached 2.32*SD above average. Overall, still very negative.
  • Fed's next increase
    Fed fund futures traders have the following probabilities: 74% for 75-bps, 26% for 100-bps (1%). Probabilities for 100-bps were 0 just a few days ago.
    https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
  • Fed's next increase
    CBS reported likely jump to 1%. Is this more idle chatter ? I'm in the ball game at .75 %, but what do I know !?
    Enjoy your day, Derf
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    The other contention - that the "IRA" is significantly inflationary - is kind of interesting to consider, given that it's $350 billion over ten years, compared to say the defense budget, which extrapolates from the current appropriation to about $8 trillion over the same time span.
    The trick is to cherrypick just the things you don't like in the budget and hang an "inflationary!" sign on them, and avoid mentioning the things you like, even if they cost more.
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    @Baseball_Fan
    without getting into a political debate...would you agree that policy could also drive inflation regardless of interest rates...i.e, increasing SNAP food program by 25% last October
    As soon as you make that statement, you've entered a political debate. If it "could also drive inflation," I don't care because I think feeding hungry people who don't have enough to eat is more important that whether I pay a little more for something I--and I know you too because you're on this board--can afford. But the optimal word in your statement is "could." It could drive inflation, but there are a thousand other things that "could" drive inflation, such as the fact we have very low unemployment and labor finally has leverage to negotiate wages, such as the fact that corporations see this period as an opportunity to gouge customers and jack up prices while blaming the government for the problem, such as the fact that there are still all sorts of Covid supply chain logjams and a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine that is causing fuel prices to rise. Not to mention the fact that the Fed and Treasury bailed out the stock and bond markets in 2020 with massive stimulus to help rich folks recover from their losses, but also increased the money supply significantly. Not to mention the $953 billion Paycheck Protection Program passed in 2020 by the previous administration to bail businesses out. It's a complex topic and blaming the weakest and poorest members of society for needing food stamps as the primary driver of inflation is absolutely a political statement.
    As for the amount of debt out there, it is a risk, but the risk could just as easily be deflationary as inflationary. Namely, defaults occur. Prior to 2008 there was a tremendous amount of debt outstanding in multiple sectors of the economy. A few defaults changed the scenario pretty quickly. As rates rise, companies and businesses and individuals that are overextended start having problems. There is also the prospect that the government could raise taxes to pay down the debt on the federal level. That would be deflationary, too, and fine depending on how taxes are raised and on whom:
    image image
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    @LewisBraham has it right. I’d add that for as long as I’ve been following markets (25+ years) there’s been a “push / pull” between the notion that the economy might teeter into either (1) a deflationary spiral or (2) runaway inflation. A debate old as time. And not an inconsequential one. We came damn near deflation during ‘07-‘08 if we are to believe top Bush Treasury officials at the time.
    I’ll agree with @Baseball_Fan if he’s saying the Fed (mainly Powell) have oversimplified the situation. I myself hope they’re not really glued to the notion of 2% constant inflation because ISTM a good way to muck up the economy and possibly throw us into a deflationary spiral. (Sounds like something “central planners” inside the former Soviet Union might have concocted as their prescribed economic officialdom.)
    Someone commented elsewhere there is “no deflation”. May I suggest that depends where you look? Stocks in companies are an “asset” valued in dollars as are milk and houses. When you saw off 15-25% of their value in short order, that’s a form of deflation. In fact, the resulting “lost wealth effect” typically causes consumers to pull back on spending which could lead to deflation in other areas.
    I’ve said before that the worst conceivable scenario for retirees would be (1) to loose a substantial portion of their invested assets during a deflationary collapse and than (2) be hit with double-digit inflation shortly thereafter.
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    @LewisBraham, on point comment and without getting into a political debate...would you agree that policy could also drive inflation regardless of interest rates...i.e, increasing SNAP food program by 25% last October, the inflationary, inflation reduction act etc. Not debating whether the policy was just or what your opinion on them is, just asking you if you would agree that policy decisions/proposals could noticeably increase inflation and negate/cancel out/override any rate hike?
    From my perspective, to me it is almost laughable that many/some? think that inflation will be reduced quickly. So much debt out there. From a professional standpoint, I am seeing nothing but cost inputs continuing to increase.
    Best Regards,
    Baseball Fan
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Three excellent funds tailored for conservative investors that I track tell the story. All are YTD performance figures (from Fidelity) as of last night.
    VWINX -10.24%
    TRRIX -12.26%
    PRSIX -12.86%
    If you really want to freak out … Dodge & Cox’s global stock fund (DODWX) is outpacing all of the above with a -8.5% return YTD. Board favorite PRWCX is also doing better than the three noted above. Probably many more exceptions.
    Franklin might have said, “When bonds go dry we know the worth of ballast.”
  • Gundlach: DEFLATION???
    For a guy born in 1959, I think he is naive about inflation.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    There are very few safe haven today. S&P 500 is down 4.3% and BND is down 0.5%.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Jalisco Star Mexican cerveza.
    Bushmills.
    MacAllan Single Malt.....
    I already had a headache, woke up with it from yesterday. (Not hung over)
    I guess I WILL look forward to my SS "raise" at the New Year.
    TUHYX junk bonds were down less than my stocks.
    If PRWCX dips below $33.00, I will buy some more. ($33.05 today.)
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I’ve never seen such carnage across both stocks and bonds this far into a year.. No place to hide except cash. PRWCX had an unusually rough day - off nearly 3%. No longer own. Just a watcher. Banks were hammered again today. Many major banks are now down 25-30% for the year, off 5+% today alone. We used to rag on Cathie Wood when her fund was down that much. (Last I looked ARKK was off 60-70% for the year.)
    Somehow it feels as if the damage YTD is worse than what the major indexes reflect. Not sure why. Might be that bonds of every stripe have been hit. Might be the damage in the financial sector which ISTM was more of a safe “value” play in the past.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    We are approaching September 6 levels. That was just a week+ ago.
    1-day decline is the worst since mid-2020.
    It was 95% down-volume day.
    See major indexes since 1/3/22, https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p13443845664
  • LHA Tactical Beta Variable Series Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1199046/000158064222004690/lhatact497supp.htm
    (the fund has no symbol yet)
    LHA TACTICAL BETA VARIABLE SERIES FUND
    Supplement to the Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information
    dated
    May 1, 2022
    Supplement dated September 13, 2022
    The Board of Trustees has determined that it is in the best interest of shareholders to liquidate the LHA Tactical Beta Variable Series Fund (the “Fund”).
    As of the date of this supplement, the Fund is no longer accepting purchase orders for its shares and it will close effective October 7, 2022 (the “Closing Date”). Shareholders who are insurance company separate accounts or qualified plans may redeem Fund shares at any time prior to the Closing Date. Individual investors may redeem Fund shares through their variable annuity or variable life insurance contract. Procedures for redeeming an account, including reinvested distributions, are contained in the section “How to Redeem Shares” of the Fund’s Prospectus. Any shareholders that have not redeemed their shares of the Fund prior to the Closing Date will have their shares automatically redeemed as of that date, with proceeds being sent to the address of record.
    Effective immediately, the Fund is no longer intends to pursue its investment objective. All holdings in the Fund’s portfolio are held in cash. Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional Fund shares, unless you have requested payment in cash.
    * * * * * *
    This supplement and the Prospectus provide the information a prospective investor should know about the Fund and should be retained for future reference. The Prospectus and a Statement of Additional Information dated May 1, 2022 have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated herein by reference. You may obtain the Prospectus or Statement of Additional Information without charge by calling the Fund at 1-833-351-2991 or visiting www.lhafunds.com.
  • Schwab Issued Corrected 1099 in August!
    It is irritating. May be comical?
    Schwab has issued ANOTHER corrected 1099 in September involving the SAME short-term muni fund FLTDX from Nuveen/TIAA. Again, the changes are for transactional CGs (ST, LT), and not in reported income or CG distributions. As these changes are related to mutual fund cost-basis recordkeeping, the issue can be with Schwab and/or Nuveen/TIAA. The total underreporting of CGs is now $50 (vs $30 in August correction). I may not do anything still.
    If you didn't hold FLTDX, this won't apply to you.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Let’s hope that August’s CPI number releases on Tuesday, Sept 13 is lowered than than of July, peaking of inflation maybe the turning point of the Fed to slowdown the rate hike. Many said a 50 bps is more likely. Think I will buy more treasury after the rate hike and hold them to maturity.
    I have been trading commodity futures in and out several times this year. Winter is several months away. Energy and food may lead the market again.
  • Harbor Emerging Markets Equity and Money Market Funds to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/793769/000119312522242476/d384549d497.htm
    497 1 d384549d497.htm HARBOR FUND - SAI SUPPLEMENT

    111 South Wacker Drive, 34th Floor
    Chicago, IL 60606-4302
    harborcapital.com
    Supplement to Statement of Additional Information dated March 1, 2022
    September 12, 2022
    Harbor Funds’ Board of Trustees has determined to liquidate and dissolve Harbor Emerging Markets Equity Fund and Harbor Money Market Fund (each, a “Fund”). The liquidation of each Fund is expected to occur on December 9, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”). The liquidation proceeds will be distributed to any remaining shareholders of the Funds on the Liquidation Date.
    Shareholders may exchange shares of a Fund for another Harbor fund, or redeem shares out of a Fund, in accordance with Harbor’s exchange and redemption policies as set forth in the Funds’ prospectus, until the Liquidation Date.
    In order to ready the Funds for liquidation, each Fund’s portfolio of investments will be transitioned prior to the planned Liquidation Date to one that consists of all or substantially all cash, cash equivalents and debt securities with remaining maturities of less than one year. As a result, shareholders should no longer expect that each Fund will seek to achieve its investment objective as stated in the Funds’ prospectus.
    Because the Fund will be liquidating, Harbor Emerging Markets Equity Fund is now closed to new investors. Harbor Money Market Fund was closed to new investors after the close of business on Friday, May 15, 2020 and will remain closed. The Funds will no longer accept additional investments from existing shareholders beginning on November 25, 2022. As of the Liquidation Date, the checkwriting privilege for shareholders in Harbor Money Market Fund will terminate. Effective immediately, check books will no longer be issued. Any checks written prior to the date of this supplement will be honored. Any checks written after the date of this supplement will be payable until the Liquidation Date.