“Powell's chances have fallen from about 80% in August to 61% as of Monday morning. The sharp decline comes amid an ongoing stock trading controversy that has ensnared several Fed governors and led to the resignations of Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan.”
Story
Third member now implicated amid growing public outcry
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida switched between $1 million to $5 million from a bond fund into stock funds a day before Chairman Jerome Powell said coronavirus poses risks to the US economy, according to his financial disclosures from 2020. Forms filed with the government ethics office show that Clarida shifted funds out of a Pimco bond fund on February 27 last year, and bought into the Pimco StocksPlus Fund and the iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor exchange-traded fund on the same day, Bloomberg reported on Friday.
Story
PS - I’ve played around with the caption - not wanting to allege wrongdoing by Clarida. For better or worse, his trading has drawn suspicion and he’s become part of the larger issue.

The S&P 5c is down now 5.5% from the top, well under the 50d ma, and right at 3.3% more will hit the 200d ma. Doesn't look good at all on the simple technicals.

Howdy folks,
The kid is selling. Sorry to be a downer but gee whiz folks, this is as frothy a market as I've ever seen or even heard of. BTD is akin to doubling down on your losing bet at the casino. Granted, I'm a momentum investor AND I have bought the dip a few times - '87 and the Gulf War, for example. This was more like buying the Crash. The difference is now, however, I see the risks far outweighing the potential rewards. Hell, we don't need a Black Swan event, we have the nightly news and it's ALL black swan. I liked Jeremy Grantham's outlook, although he's being a bit too optimistic.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/legendary-investor-jeremy-grantham-says-104259678.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAjSsNmuIEdYsi2i23Yzd7et9aMliiviWcZ4x24F7PxRP18FYK7VYZkPYkTi9LzS-A2z8iJZcQGQ8t9HSWXzx67I7XGiTgS88FsY0iTfvg7R9y0REf3p9AuYgSXJWCU-nhvGbsRKWrOLcwB4BqVfZOMMXtTppo0_XYsHCPgDXw2Q
and so it goes,
peace and wear the damn mask,
rono

IMHO there was no obvious point at which most people would say they would have sold TPINX, yet most people would have sold at some point. It seemed that this was a good fund to illustrate how one's sell discipline worked in "real life", given that there doesn't appear to be a "correct" answer.
Only one taker, though.
I did have a small position in TGBAX for several years, which I sold in late 2019. I held the position because I wanted, and still want, a smattering of international bonds to diversify the few bonds (funds) I do hold. Given that target allocation, I was not going to sell the fund because of lackluster absolute performance, but because of poor relative performance. Thus I compared with alternative funds.
Lipper shows only 22 international (as opposed to global) bond funds, excluding inaccessible ones like DFA. Currently, one can purchase the following tickers: BEGBX, WISEX (M* classifies as short term bond, I'd call it EM as it invests according to Sharia and seems to hold a lot in the middle east), DIBAX, LWOAX, DNIOX, EPBIX, FBIIX, MPIFX, GARBX (M* call it EM bond), HXIIX (likewise, EM bond), OIBAX, PXBZX, PFORX, PFUIX, RPIBX, TNIBX, TGBAX, TTRZX, FIBZX, TIBWX, VTABX, ESICX.
Ruling out the EM bond funds and funds that weren't even available in 2016 (FBIIX, PXBZX, TNIBX), that leaves just 16 peers not managed by Hasenstab. Of these, only 1/4, 2 PIMCO funds and 2 index funds (Vanguard, TIAA) returned more than 1.75% annualized over the past five years.
So these funds could serve as points of comparison. Here's a PortfolioVisualizer graph comparing TGBAX with the two PIMCO funds since the start of 2011. Actually, TGBAX doesn't look bad compared with PFUIX (unhedged) until 2020.
What happened was that the dollar took off in 2014 and 2015 (see graph here), hurting unhedged funds and apparently also TGBAX. Through the rest of the decade, as the dollar became rather volatile, TGBAX did not respond well. It's a unique fund in that it's a combination of a foreign bond fund and a currency fund. For example, it never had exposure to the Ukranian hryvnia. (More significantly, it tended to short developed market currencies.) The fact that it did not play currency well, which became apparent (to me) only in the late 2010s was a factor in deciding to sell. The fund was not adding value on the currency side.
I will tend to wait three year before pulling a trigger. 2017 was its worst year (relative) since 2011, and while 2018 was a relatively good year, 2019 was a disaster, in both absolute and relative terms. With increasing volatility as well. This, coupled with what now seemed a long term move into exclusively EM bonds, and the aforementioned failure to navigate currencies well said that it was time to leave. Not a single factor, but a combination.
One could easily argue that I should have left years ago. Had I known the dollar would go up so much and that the fund's purported currency expertise was not as advertised, I might have moved years ago into a hedged fund, or into a global fund.
A related question for others: why would you have bought the fund? I ask because in terms of performance being a trigger, if one buys into a type of fund (here, pure international, not hedged back to dollar), then IMHO what matters is performance relative to peers or benchmark. And one should be careful in identifying peers. Global and international funds are different, even if M* chooses to lump them together.

Pretty much #3. Mine is largely a static allocation spread across too many specific types of funds / investments to get into. I rebalance every 3 months - but only if if pre-determined allocations stray too much due to market activity. I benchmark against PRSIX (age 75). So not swinging for the fences.
I do allow up to 3% for speculative investments. Picked up some DFKG in late June & early July after a short seller blasted it. Bought at an average around $45. Closed around $50 Friday. I enjoy wagering on NCAA on the site in the winter months and figured if I enjoy using it, others may. Right now I’m debating whether to off-load a small speculative position in DOG. Bought August 30 (and reported that here). September was a nasty month for the Dow and the fund has gained around 4% since buying. I suspect there will be more Dow sell-off. However, I’m not very comfortable shorting any market. Sold a small piece several days back on a big down day and may hit the eject button one of these times. Really hard to say. At 1% of holdings, it’s of little consequence.
Point I’m making - It’s OK to play around the edges for fun or profit. But lean into the wind with your preplanned allocation. Rebalance as necessary. Ernie Harwell used to say: “Dance with the one that brung ya.”
Caveat - Having lived through a few market crashes in my lifetime, should a steep 15-30% selloff in the major indexes occur, I’d start dipping - regardless of any predetermined allocation model. Those types of opportunities don’t come along very often. Make hay while the sun shines.

I bought during the recent stock market dip on 9/17, S&P500 @4433 and then again on 9/21, S&P500 @4354 with these buy steps opening my fall investment spiff position which I generally hold through the winter months and then average out of during spring months moving into summer. Generally, I make six to eight percent on my fall spiffs, sometimes more, thus making me a happy camper.

One reason to question whether the mini-selloff in equity has run its course: the S&P 500 hasn't recovered to its 50 day moving average yet.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/trading-investing/autumn-stock-market-correction
Excerpt:
That seasonal window is now upon us, and like clockwork the market has been testing its 50-day moving average (MA). Given how many times the S&P 500 has successfully tested this support level over the past year, it wouldn't surprise me if it eventually fails to hold. Perhaps we will see a test of the 200-day moving average in the coming weeks, which would amount to a proper 10% mid-cycle correction.
Nor would it surprise me, and yes, I will BUY more stocks if it does.
Note (if you haven't already) that (beyond the headline news) a significant % of US stocks have already lost 10+%. Some think that as long as the big techs DON'T fully roll over, we're headed towards 4500-4700 by YE.

Hi guys,
Thanks to those that made comment on my post and the linked article.
I am providing a short blub on how I roll which will explain in some detail why I chose option 1. This was taken from a recent weekly briefing and market recap that I write.
Now being in the distribution phase of investing (age 74) I run an all weather asset allocation portfolio with asset weightings of 20/40/40 (cash/bonds/stocks) and I can move up, or down, five percent in the bond area, in the stock area, or in both areas while letting cash float. I am presently at a neutral weighting while I await the next stock market pullback. Most likely, I will engage the stock market and overweight stocks through a special investment (spiff) position to play the rebound; and, then exit through a step sell process during the updaraft until I reach, or maintain, my desired asset allocation weighting. Generally, I rebalance at plus (or minus) two percent from my desired asset weighting. However, I can move from a low asset allocation weighting of 33% to a high asset allocation weighting of 47% in both the stock and bond areas, or some point in between, without having to do a force rebalance. At the low asset weighting (33% each) I could be as high as 34% cash and at the high asset weighting (47% each) I could be as low a 6% in cash. At first brush, what appeared to be a mudane portfolio does indeed afford for some good range in asset movement for positioning, based upon market reads, plus the portfolio generates a sufficient income stream which is important to me being retired.
From what I wrote in a recent weekly briefing and recap.
Today, September 17th being tripple witching day, with the S&P 500 Index closing at 4433 I opened my first "spiff" buy step to start my seasonal special investment position. Generally, I will load equites coming into fall, hold them during the winter, and then exit the position as spring arrives moving sell proceeds into either bond funds, cash or some of both. This is a strategy that I learned from my late father back in the 1970's as I became a more achmpolished investor. Through the years most spiffs have been beneficial for me with positive returns, but not always. Click on the below link to learn more about the strategy. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/602700/sell-in-may-and-go-away-here-we-go-again
Taken form my September 24th briefing and recap.
During the week I made my second spiff step buy. I have now made two equally weighted spiff buy steps at S&P 500 Index readings of 4433 & 4354 for a gain of 1.4% as of Friday's market close (4455). These spiff buys will open my fall seasonal investment strategy where I usually load equities coming into the fall, hold them through the winter months and then start ot lighten up coming out of winter and moving into spring. I have found that the strategy does not work every year but has worked more times than not. I generally limit the strategy to no more than five percent of my portfolio.
And, taken form my October 1st briefing and recap.
Since, I have bought equity step buy positons during the last couple weeks (during market dips opening my fall equity spiff position) this was watch the action week collecting my month and quarter end mutual fund distributions and building cash while I await bigger declines. If not, then I will continue with an average in process building my fall spiff position as we move into the winter months.
Thus, in review of the options listed in the linked article I felt option 1 was the best fit although option 3 somewhat fits because I am generally not a seller in a stock maket decline which option 2 covers although I do rebalance, from time-to-time as some have noted in their comments.
Take care and thanks for stopping by and reading.

@Stillers: "Friday was a pretty important day in which the Dip/Diplet appears (to me and the people I read/follow) to have abated. At least for the time being that is, and stopping a potential gusher after you've rolled the dice a bit is always an upbeat time for me."
Do you mind sharing with us where you read / follow those people, assuming those are public and free sites? Did these folks also mention why the market went down? It will be good for me to also read other forums.
...

Do you mind sharing with us where you read / follow those people,
No, I would rather NOT share their names/company's names. I'm getting bashed here a bit and the last thing I want to do is post names of my fave T/A's, market analysts, PMs, etal that I subscribe to/follow, and then have to fend off the additional bashing about them. Not worth my time.
assuming those are public and free sites?
No, they are not all (free) public sites. I pay for a coupla investment service newsletters.
Did these folks also mention why the market went down?
Hmmm...first, a LOT of investors/media get bent out of shape over DOWN moves of 5% in the overall market. That's still in the normal market breathing range for me. Yes, they all state their thoughts on the specific reasons for this LITTLE move DOWN we've had recently. They of course vary. That said, IF there's a consensus among them, it's that the recent action was highly predictable/widely expected and normal market breathing.
It will be good for me to also read other forums.
You can read "forums" until you're blue in the face. LOTS of threads out here frequented by LOTS of posters with varying levels of investment experience and expertise (yeah, they're different). There were a couple posters who have made me "real" money over the past 10 years, namely the old M* CEF Forum crew who daily, for years, provided a pretty much paint-by-numbers plan to profit from FI CEFs, and the poster who got me to fully understand and apply his main investment axiom, "Volatility is the price you pay for growth." They are more the exception than the rule of forums. Kindly suggest finding some worthy professionals to regularly read. I will throw out two names. Start with Katie Stockton (for T/A) and Jurrien Timmer (for market perspective). See if you like them and if not, find someone that you do. Also, disregard the widespread bashing of CNBC. They have regulars and guests on there who provide priceless, free, current analysis on the market. Three notable PMs who are regulars on there are amongst my faves for market analysis and portfolio construction.

@Stillers: "Friday was a pretty important day in which the Dip/Diplet appears (to me and the people I read/follow) to have abated. At least for the time being that is, and stopping a potential gusher after you've rolled the dice a bit is always an upbeat time for me."
Do you mind sharing with us where you read / follow those people, assuming those are public and free sites? Did these folks also mention why the market went down? It will be good for me to also read other forums.
P.S. to everybody: I happen to buy on Thursday Close and again on Friday - not a high conviction that we have seen the seasonal bottom but I am not good at picking the bottom. As an aside, I could not stop smiling when I read the outrage about Clarida buying multimillion $$ in equity index funds on February 27, 2020 while on February 28, 2020 Powell mentioned the Fed is watching the markets. Clarida lost 25%+ of the investment in less than a month to the March 23, 2020 bottom. If he waited for the required two day cooling period and bought at the open on March 26, he would have avoided 17% of that paper loss or would have bought 27%+ below the February 19, 2020 market top. Poor guy, he must have received an earful from his spouse for his trade! May be the dip/diplet buyers do not have any scar tissue from buying too soon and watching the market keep going down in Feb-March 2020, granted we do not currently have a similar massive unknown (but now we know from the pandemic how vulnerable we are - i.e., there is nobody at the steering wheel). I still do not understand why the market went down in September.

One reason to question whether the mini-selloff in equity has run its course: the S&P 500 hasn't recovered to its 50 day moving average yet.

Mr. Walthausen has retired. Investors received a new proxy agreement concerning investment advisory agreements:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001418191/000141304221000838/walthdef14a.htm
Excerpt:
The enclosed Proxy Statement contains information about a proposal to approve new investment advisory agreements between Walthausen Funds and Walthausen & Co., LLC on behalf of the Walthausen Small Cap Value Fund and Walthausen Focused Small Cap Value Fund. The new advisory agreements are required because John Walthausen, the founder of Walthausen & Co., LLC, has retired and along with that retirement comes a planned internal change in ownership of the firm. We are pleased that the current management team will assume the responsibilities of Mr. Walthausen and carry forward the traditions and values established by Mr. Walthausen. His dedication to the firm and its clients, his unwavering commitment to independent research, and his insistence on excellence are ingrained in the culture of the firm and will serve the firm well into the future.
...Presently, 56% of the voting interests of the Adviser are held by John B. Walthausen, 12% by Paul T. Nichols, 10% by DeForest R. Hinman, 8% by Stanley M. Westhoff, 7% by Mark L. Hodge, 3% by Gerard S.E. Heffernan, and 3% by Curtis J. Lasek. Mr. Walthausen intends to withdraw as a member of the Adviser, and upon withdrawal his membership interests will convert to non-voting financial interests in the Adviser (the "Transaction").
From Walthausen's website:
http://www.walthausenfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/20180214_Walthausen_PM_Announcement_FINAL.pdf

@CecilJK : It's good to see you posting .
Looking at doing #2. Selling to keep most of the gain. 3 funds I bought last Nov. all had gains of 25 % or more. I decided if gain fell below 25 % I would sell. One of the funds has crossed the line a couple of times & will put in a sell if below 25% when I check later today.
Derf

@hank & @David_Snowball ; Unless you both own homes of 5000 sq. ' or more your contractor is running up the bill ! If one or both had water & of termite damage I would think otherwise. Two , maybe three days for a roof job ! Second thought. How many workers were on the job ?
Enjoy your updates, Derf
P.S. We have on going
updating also.

Hmmm...No reasonably intelligent investor thinks the market now has no chance of losing a point over the next three months.
That said, Friday was a pretty important day in which the Dip/Diplet appears (to me and the people I read/follow) to have abated. At least for the time being that is, and stopping a potential gusher after you've rolled the dice a bit is always an upbeat time for me.
As I've posted previously, I've been BTD pretty successfully throughout 2020-21 with few exceptions when they opportunities arose. My experience over that period of time suggests to me I may have played this one right again.
Either way, UP or DOWN from here, yeah, I'm pretty happy I exchanged a bond OEF holding for more stocks when they were in total DOWN ~5% from their highs, and on indv stocks, DOWN >10% from their high.
NOTE: At least one recent study showed that investors are more than 2x more upset when they lose money in the market than they are happy when they make money. Since reading that study, I take every opportunity I can to BE HAPPY when I make worthy trades/make money.
The football reference was simply an analogy. No intention to actually make that bet OR turn this thread into a football discussion.

Oct 2nd Episode:

Hi guys, In viewing my portfolio in M*'s Portfolio Manger this morning (Saturday 10/2) around 5:45 AM, I am finding than a good number of my mutual funds have stale pricing from Thursday's market close and M* has failed ... yet again ... to update many mutual funds in my portfolio with Friday's nav market closing values. No wonder M* gets bashed on many investment boards.

Thank you Old_ Skeet.

Hi guys, In viewing my portfolio in M*'s Portfolio Manger this morning (Saturday 10/2) around 5:45 AM, I am finding than a good number of my mutual funds have stale pricing from Thursday's market close and M* has failed ... yet again ... to update many mutual funds in my portfolio with Friday's nav market closing values. No wonder M* gets bashed on many investment boards.

How about “Falling Star”? Seems like as soon as I latch on to one of their 5-star funds it starts falling … down to 3 stars in no time at all.