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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    Thanks FD. Yes $2500 min at Fido. And one more “fund performance site” to add to my collection and further mess with my brain.
    I decided years ago to stop using ALT funds. They are not reliable and inconsistent. I developed my own timing system(link) that worked very well for me. I started practicing it in 2013.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    Thanks FD. Yes $2500 min at Fido. And one more “fund performance site” to add to my collection and further mess with my brain.
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    The sell-off has been highly uneven. So those major averages may not tell the entire story or the extent of devastation in some sectors. Folks can speculate on possible reasons. 40-45% down on TRP?? OK, I realize that follows a sizzling hot 2021. But still ….
    And maybe Cathie’s long-shots will tumble 20% more before this is all over. But I’d rather buy a bit at 75% down from the recent highs than a year back.
    I think when people buy depressed stocks they’re not expecting to get rich quick. Nor do they believe that stock can’t tumble another 10, 20%. No. The reasoning is that much of the risk has been taken out. Still might loose money, but your odds of making money are far superior to what they were a while ago.
    To be up-front here. I have not / will not invest in TROW. I did, however, buy another money manager Friday and look forward to adding to the currently small position on further declines.
    Well, there’s my 2.5 cents worth.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    TIPS are finally offering positive real yields.
    The 10-Year TIPS has a 1.07% real yield in the secondary market.
    There is a 10-Year TIPS reopening auction scheduled on Sept. 22.
    The 5-Year TIPS has a 1.14% real yield in the secondary market.
    It will be interesting to see Oct. 20 auction results for 5-Year TIPS.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    FARIX seems like an interesting fund, but it has a $1 million minimum investment.
    All you got to do is check it out. Fidelity and Schwab have only $2500 min.
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    Just an FYI - on the question of commissions, most brokerages appear to charge a commission (e.g., 0.01%) in buying and selling Agency bonds. Today, Agency short term bonds were yielding nearly 50 pbs higher than Treasuries of the same maturities. If there is a wider interest in exploring Agency debt, we should open a separate thread to keep this thread on topic.
    Since we are now in the new environment where rates are rising, I think it would be great to open a separate thread on buying and selling Agency bonds instead of bond funds.
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    To feel better, look at last 3 months - NOT bad! If this continues for just 2 more weeks, the Q3 statements could be encouraging. Reason is simple - we are still a few % above the mid-June lows. Of course, things can get ugly in 2 weeks too.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=$SPX&compare=$COMPQ,$INDU,$TRAN,IWM&id=p13771285746
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Nothing definitive regarding my five--OK, really 2, maybe 1--cents, but my feeling is: 1. The selloff hasn't been that bad compared to others I've seen. 2. We haven't seen any major defaults yet from the rise in interest rates. 3. Valuations still aren't cheap by historical standards. 4. There are still perma-bulls out there saying buy. 5. Though others disagree with me, I don't think the Fed cares much about the loss of jobs that will eventually occur from defaults and reduced consumption from rising interest rates and that will drive us into a potentially severe recession. Once we enter a recession, I would imagine more bloodletting. Yet I really don't know for sure, and anyone claiming they do is lying.
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    @Lewis - just wondering if the extra 3 cents on your opinion is due to inflation or supply chain issues. Or maybe yours has always been worth 5 cents.
  • Mechanics of Buying & Selling 5-Yr TIPS
    For those interested in buying Treasuries at auctions,
    26-week and shorter are every week.
    Next 1-yr/52-week on 10/4/22 (Tu), 11/1/22 (Tu), etc
    Next 2-year on 9/26/22 (M), 10/25/22 (Tu), etc
    Next 5-year TIPS on 10/20/22 (Th), 12/22/22 (Th), etc
    Orders can be entered only after the related announcements are out until the early-AM on the auction day.
    Treasuries can be bought in the secondary market anytime, although these make more sense when there are no nearby auctions. Note that there is bid-ask, and one buys at "ask", sells at "bid".
    https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/TentativeAuctionScheduleQ32022.pdf
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    For those who want to buy at auctions only, 26-week is every week, while the next 1-yr on 10/4/22, next 2-yr on 9/26/22, next 5-yr TIPS on 10/20/22.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Good idea. 26 weeks treasury is in the sweet spot near 4%, whereas the yields flattens out quickly beyond 2 years. Also the auction is taken place weekly on Monday at brokerages or directly at TreasuryDirect.
    After September rate hike, treasury yields will go up again. Think treasury yield at 5% or more by year end is not unreasonable.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    Check out FARIX much better performance(3 times in the last 3 years) with similar SD.
    See (PV)
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Last time pessimism this low / high Vix 28 low 30s, sp500 w another leg stretches down - were near June bottom and market bounces off +16% until Jackson Hole.... after hrs market Fri premarket show sp500 still dances / rebound toward near 50d MA now. Bigwhales did buy more after marker hrs, I think they are holding for 6 12 months and may think these levels maybe good entries. Momentum maybe shift toward next wk after big sales off and everyone focuses in Fed imploding plans, if 75 basis points may have another rally.
    Hy bonds stocks equities appear near attractive prices again
    Thinking add more techs /transport etf/ growth stocks/ and iwm next wk, these were beaten down very bad
  • Wasatch re-opens six funds
    The “Parent” tab in the link for WGROX that yogi provided shows current year assets for Wasatch at $12.49B with net outflows of $0.70B for 2022. You can get a sense of what each fund’s outflow is just from the M* bar charts. I don’t know for sure, but I believe that the CG tax bill for the SCG funds I have been holding is going to be high for this tax year. Buying a fallen angel this year could result in pain come April 15, 2023.
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Ty for the heads up
    Not sure what to do now
    - wait w cash /buy more CDs hoping crisis will pass
    -pick solid companies (etfs funds you believe in) w good low Prices/ p.e. keep dca/buy into them (like faang stocks sp500 brkb Costco ev CMG target hd Walmart fdx etc) because they maybe at steep discounts
    - or do nothing /go away keep waiting, don't check on daily basis and maybe wake up in 16 24 months and see your portfolio maybe +10 +20%....
    Not sure what to make if it but Late Fridays especially afternoon and after hr see lots buying actions and indexes close near 50d MA.... Sentiments extremely poor and smart monies-big whales maybe buying again soon since they did possibly oversold past few wks after Jackson Hole. No one really know
    Loosing $$ extremely hard but you probably cannot do anything much. One friend mine computer engineer has brother own hedge funds, that brother been very sad recent last 10 months, his fund bellied up --25% because very high risk tradings/options and leveraged trades/margin call.... But he said keep at it, once market turn (and it will turn) , you may make $$ in 2 -4 yrs... Sit tight...
  • Pessimism is deepening as bellwether companies warn of worsening economic and business conditions.
    Following are excerpts from a New York Times article, heavily edited for brevity:
    A parade of prominent investors and corporate executives have made it clear that they believed the worst was yet to come for the economy and financial markets.
    After hitting a low in June, the S&P 500 had rallied more than 17 percent into mid-August, before losing steam again. The sell-off this week leaves the index just 5.6 percent above the bottom reached in June, after a fall of 0.7 percent on Friday that brought its weekly losses close to 5 percent. The market has only dropped 5 percent in a week three times this year.
    Yet even after the swift decline this week, some of the most powerful trading houses in the world, deploying trillions of dollars on behalf of pension funds, governments and other investors, are warning that there is more pain ahead.
    “If you asked me a year ago, ‘What is the worst scenario for financial markets?’ I think things are now worse than anything we could have imagined,” said the head of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the largest of its kind. The fund manages money generated by Norway’s extensive oil and gas sales and has $1.4 trillion invested around the world.
    Business leaders, policymakers and ordinary Americans are all grappling with the end of a decade of rock-bottom interest rates that helped propel the economy after the 2008 financial crisis, and a shift to a much-less familiar, once-in-a-generation burst of inflation. Crimped supply chains, the war in Ukraine and an emerging energy crisis are among a host of challenges that add to a level of uncertainty that some investors say they have not seen in decades.
    The drop on Friday came as the stock of logistics giant FedEx cratered more than 21 percent, after it warned that its profit was being hit by weakness in Asia and Europe. FedEx said that it would cut some services, close locations and freeze hiring, becoming the latest in a string of companies that have gone public with their concerns and rattled investor confidence.
    FedEx is seen as an economic bellwether because its package shipping business reflects both business and consumer demand. On Thursday the company’s chief executive predicted a “worldwide recession.”
    General Electric’s chief financial officer also warned of challenges, bemoaning lingering supply chain issues that remain “tough” and “impair our ability to deliver to our customers.”
    Economic worries were also evident in other corners of the financial markets: Corporate debt prices fell and oil prices notched a third straight week of losses.
    Mr. Tangen, of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, said that he did not think there was an investment area anywhere in the world likely to make money in the near future. “That’s the really depressing thing,” he said.
  • BAMBX’s current positioning?
    Here’s a very thorough discussion of BAMBX from last November:
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/58920/blackrock-systematic-multi-strategy-fund-bambx
    In it fred495 provided a direct link to LB’s Barron’s piece. It works whether you are a subscriber or not. I appreciated that. Reading Barron’s via an Amazon Kindle subscription does not allow me to access Barron’s website directly. So links to past articles don’t get me in the door. Fred’s link did work, however.
    Good article. The managers appear competent at what they do. They are bent on preserving capital - a worthy goal. What I’m trying to determine is the fund’s most recent weighting in long equity positions. Certainly behaves a lot more like a fixed income fund than a balanced, allocation or LS sort.
    Addendum
    Thanks Yogi & Lewis for your input. After more research I intend to keep BAMBX. It represents a small portion (around 15%) of a broader 45% allocation to Alternatives. It’s also the most conservative holding in that mix. To be down only 4-5% in a year when many intermediate bond funds have lost 10% or more is a tribute to the fund. It has dawned on me that there are other avenues I can pursue to ramp up risk exposure which involve buying or selling stocks or ETFs rather than mutual funds. I’m learning after a year with Fido that, when possible, it’s better not to make changes in NTF fund holdings as their 60-day holding period can come back to “bite” you at a later date.
    Regards