Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Gundlach says bonds are wickedly cheap compared to stocks and offers one way to get a 9 return
    Hi Wxman123
    He did not say
    ***Now, is an excellent time to buy bonds. Because nobody wants to buy bonds, according to him, a bank loan fund would be a good investment for investors with low-risk tolerance. He said there is a 300 bps difference between short-term and long-term rates. If the Fed raises interest rates to 4%, investors can return 7% but buy less than 95 bonds with a default rate of less than 1%.
    Gundlach sees an easy way to make money right now, but that could change if the Fed cuts interest rates to zero.***
    My hunches are invest in his funds or buy JNK HYLD Etf junkies bonds prob similar or better returns without extravaganza fees and they been beaten down badly last 9-12 months
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 9/21/22
    For the week ending on 9/21/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (60.9%; extremely high; highest since 3/5/09) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (17.7%; extremely low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (21.4%; low); Bull-Bear Spread was -43.2% (extremely low; lowest since 3/5/09). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed (+75 hike yesterday & 100-125 bps more hikes in 2022); market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (partial mobilizations in Russia; 30+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were down sharply, bonds down, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar up. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=783
  • Here’s the latest YTD numbers from Bloomberg - 3 major indexes gain / loss
    No wonder why Woods screaming ****rate halt ...deflation*** past few wks. She maybe couple months early
    So many folks lost $$ these days
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/she-never-explained-anything-im-a-senior-citizen-and-i-lost-100-000-in-the-stock-market-this-year-can-i-sue-my-financial-adviser-11663719152?mod=quentin-fottrell
    Dear Quentin,
    I am a senior citizen and have suffered major losses to the tune of $100,000 in the recent stock market turmoil. Can I sue my financial adviser? I understand the dynamics of the market as far as its ups and downs, and have ridden them out before.
    However, it’s been different with the market in this timeframe insofar as tech stocks are taking a major hit, as well as others. I advised my financial adviser I was heading into retirement months before all of this happened.
    As my account was taking losses, she did nothing to warn me that given the current situation it might be a good idea to move my assets to another area to lessen the losses — and return at a later date when things have stabilized.
    ....
  • Here’s the latest YTD numbers from Bloomberg - 3 major indexes gain / loss

    One fund to report - According to CNBC, ARKK is off -57.35%YTD and -65.56% for 1 year. Posted not to dump on Cathie, but to provide some perspective - ie: to show how much highly speculative, highly leveraged stocks have lost this year.
    Highly speculative, but not highly leveraged. At least for now:
    Currently, ARK's ETFs do not use any leverage. ARK ETFs aim to offer a moderate-to-high risk-reward profile, while leverage has the potential to increase volatility.
    https://helpcenter.ark-funds.com/do-the-ark-etfs-use-any-leverage
    Now if you really want to talk about leveraging, there's ARK3 (ARKK 3x leverage).
    It started the year at $4.164, and is now selling for 12.48¢. You do the arithmetic; it's too depressing.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARK3.L?p=ARK3.L
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Hi sir Derf -not sure about ust bonds but Corp bonds usually 5 or 10 bucks transactions fee without margin fees per 5k 10k I think w vanguard or schwab (margin fees usually calculate at end of month)
    For us they put it the final product/amounts after closure into margin acct to close the deals (before settlement date) unless you have more cash in account than the actual bonds + commissions + forcasted partial divs paid before actual divs date
    From vanguard***
    A separate commission is charged for each security bought or sold. Orders that execute over multiple days are charged separate commissions. In addition, a separate commission is charged for each order placed for the same security on the same side of the market (buying or selling) on the same day. Orders that are changed by the client and executed in multiple trades on the same day are charged separate commissions. These commission and fee schedules are subject to change.***
  • Here’s the latest YTD numbers from Bloomberg - 3 major indexes gain / loss
    End of day, Wednesday 9/21
    YTD:
    Dow Jones -16.94%
    S&P 500 -20.48%
    NASDAQ -28.28%
    One fund to report - According to CNBC, ARKK is off -57.35%YTD and -65.56% for 1 year. Posted not to dump on Cathie, but to provide some perspective - ie: to show how much highly speculative, highly leveraged stocks have lost this year.
  • FOMC Statement, 9/21/22
    Real rates to rise across the board
    Are you talking about rates for all maturity Treasuries, or various Fed rates (discount rate, Fed funds, ...), or something else? Certainly real rates will rise as inflation declines, unless the cure is worse than the disease and we head toward a significant recession. Then nominal rates could follow inflation down.
    The 10 year matters to me because I've been pushing my building to take a cap improvement loan at 5.5%, locked now, as opposed to waiting and taking a more conventional loan at (2.5% + 10 year rate) that doesn't lock until funded months down the road.
    FWIW, here's Goldman Sach's prediction for the 10 year rate, as of yesterday. Given the FOMC announcement was as expected, I figure this is still GS's prediction.
    https://www.isabelnet.com/u-s-10-year-treasury-yields-forecast/
  • FPA customer service?
    I've done that and then transferred the shares to a brokerage for convenience. I have seen soft closes where the fund says that shares purchased directly in a new account cannot be transferred for some period of time. But even then, the time limit does expire.
    OTOH, Janus makes its cheaper D shares available only through direct investment. That's a little different from the situation described above. The shares weren't closed at intermediaries - they were never offered through those channels.
    Only Class D Shares (the “Shares”) are offered by this Prospectus. The Shares are offered directly through the Janus Henderson funds to eligible investors by calling 1-800-525-3713 or at janushenderson.com/individual. The Shares are not offered through financial intermediaries.
    Janus Value Funds Prospectus
    For several years, Janus only allowed legacy investors - those who already had a direct account with Janus - to invest in class D shares. A couple of years ago it reopened direct investing to new customers. An interesting example of a fund family where you might want to invest directly (for lower cost) but couldn't.
    https://ir.janushenderson.com/news-events/press-releases/news-details/2020/Janus-Henderson-Investors-to-Reopen-U.S.-Direct-Business-Channel-to-New-Investors/default.aspx
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Shy JNK down today too
    No support
    Maybe bad 6 9 months bears
    Sp500 may go to 3000 as advertised previously
  • FOMC Statement, 9/21/22
    Notes from above & Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference
    Rates: Fed funds +75bps to 3.00-3.25% & more hikes to come; for reserve balances 3.15%; discount rate 3.25%. Real rates to rise across the board. Further +100 to +125 bps rise in fed funds expected by the yearend, so people can guess 75 or 50 or 25 bps hikes at the 2 remaining FOMC meetings. Fed policy to remain restrictive. Fed pause may be at some point, but Fed easing unlikely any time soon.
    QT to continue at -$60 billion/mo for Treasuries, -$35 billion/mo for MBS.
    Long-term inflation target is +2% average by 2024-25. The current PCE & CPI are too high. Future inflation-expectations are reasonable. Housing/rent (OER) contribution is high and sticky. No special consideration for housing.
    Post-pandemic economy will slow to below trend. Financial conditions will tighten; credit spreads will widen. Unemployment rate will rise (labor markets are too strong now, even out of balance). Wage growth will moderate. Soft landing is becoming less likely and recession more likely.
    Most global central banks are tightening. They share information but there is no global coordination.
    Complex global factors include pandemic, Russia-Ukraine war, supply-chain shocks, energy issues. Some improvements have been seen recently.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/158/fomc-statements-6-7-weeks?page=1&scrollTo=782
  • FOMC Statement, 9/21/22
    Here are a few takeaways from Jerome Powell's press conference.
    Core PCE inflation over the trailing 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months
    is running too high and is not where the Fed wants it to be.
    The shelter inflation component will remain high for some time.
    There needs to be a better balance between supply and demand in the labor market.
    The Fed wants to be in a place where there are positive real rates across the yield curve.
    FOMC economic projections for 2022 year-end:
    0.2% GDP; 3.8% unemployment; 5.4% PCE; 4.5% core PCE; 4.4% Federal funds rate.
    FOMC economic projections for 2023 year-end:
    1.2% GDP; 4.4% unemployment; 2.8% PCE; 3.1% core PCE; 4.6% Federal funds rate.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @johnN, for buying Treasuries to be held to maturities, "too high" (for yield) doesn't matter. The rate is locked in at purchase.
    BTW, prices this year are down for Treasury "funds". https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SHY&compare=IEF,TLT&id=p25950705860
  • FPA customer service?
    In the past 6 months I’ve had to phone Fido only 2 or 3 times. (d) So their website is incredibly sophisticated and able to anticipate 90%+ of your needs. But phone support is very good too. Today the Fido phone reps set a new record. Their website system flagged a sell order of a fund I thought should be fee-waived. The woman who picked up promptly answered my query & approved the pending sale in approximately 60 seconds. And was nice about it. Wow!
    Back in my “dark” days at TRP I was often “hanging” on hold for 15-30 minutes. And they got the problem solved correctly roughly 40% of the time. 400 is a good average if you’re batting in the majors, but not for client service reps.
    Sounds like @Ben is frustrated at FPA . I’m a bit confused because he appears to be dealing with one particular fund house here and perhaps looking to move to a different one. Not a bad plan. However, IMHO a full service brokerage is a lot nicer.
    PS - Can’t help wondering if TRP’s client service (disservice) has anything to do with their stock’s dismal performance this year, compared against just about any other of their peers. I’ll note than a lot of their formerly stalwart funds have also suffered - for whatever reason.
  • Timely charts: Liz Ann Sonders
    https://twitter.com/lizannsonders/status/1572320149646053379?s=21&t=-XmIjVxzB_STi9om3ZXD7w
    There are a number of folks posting on Twitter with insightful and timely data…Helene Meisler is another.
  • What’s a Pig Butchering Scam? Here’s How to Avoid Falling Victim to One.
    What is so awful here is both the victims and the victimizers are abused. An excerpt from the longer article:
    .Fan’s descent into forced labor began, as human trafficking often does, with what seemed like a bona fide opportunity. He had been a prep cook at his sister’s restaurant in China’s Fujian province until it closed, then he delivered meals for an app-based service. In March 2021, Fan was offered a marketing position with what purported to be a well-known food delivery company in Cambodia. The proposed salary, $1,000 a month, was enticing by local standards, and the company offered to fly him in. Fan was so excited that he told his older brother, who already worked in Cambodia, about the opportunity. Fan’s brother quit his job and joined him. By the time they realized the offer was a sham, it was too late. Their new bosses wouldn’t let them leave the compound where they had been put to work.
    Unlike the countless people trafficked before them who were forced to perform sex work or labor for commercial shrimping operations, the two brothers ended up in a new occupation for trafficking victims: playing roles in financial scams that have swindled people across the globe, including in the United States.
    Tens of thousands of people from China, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam and elsewhere in the region have been similarly tricked. Phony job ads lure them into working in Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, where Chinese criminal syndicates have set up cyberfraud operations …..
    ….About 8,000 miles from Cambodia, an American who lives near San Francisco got a WhatsApp message on Oct. 7, 2021, from a stranger calling herself Jessica. She seemed to have reached him by mistake. Jessica asked the man, whose middle name is Yuen, if they knew each other; she said she had found his number on her phone and didn’t know why. Yuen responded that he didn’t know her. But Jessica was chatty and friendly, and her photo was alluring, so they kept talking….
    At the moment Jessica initiated contact, Yuen was vulnerable. His father was in a hospital, dying from a lung disease. He had entrusted Yuen, the youngest of four siblings, with the power to decide whether to cut off his life support. It would also be up to Yuen to plan his father’s funeral and distribute his estate.
    The family had immigrated to the U.S. from Hong Kong decades earlier. Yuen, who is in his early 50s and works as an accountant for a major university, was more affluent than his siblings, who are all older than him. He felt it was his duty to take care of them in old age, much as he was caring for his father and had cared for his late mother. Jessica told him she admired his commitment to his family. She shared her own tale of having a grandfather in the hospital….
    Yuen made it clear he couldn’t afford to lose any money. If he did, he said, he’d have to kill himself. Jessica said there was no need to worry: Uncle was never wrong. Yuen owed it to his father to seize the opportunity.
    On Oct. 26, the day he had to go to the hospital to discuss his father’s end-of-life care, Yuen put money on the line for the first time. A conservative investor and lifelong saver, he’d been petrified to put even $2,000 into the brokerage. Jessica convinced him to start with $10,000 and taught him the two-step process to fund his account. First, he wired money from his bank to buy a cryptocurrency called ethereum. Then he could transfer the ethereum to a crypto wallet, whose address she provided.
    Jessica insisted that using a cryptocurrency would help Yuen minimize his tax burden. He admitted he had very little idea of what he was doing….
    Jessica didn’t seem to grasp what a hospice was. When Yuen explained that it was a care facility for the terminally ill, she perked up: “You need to make more money.” Jessica told him he should raise his account balance to $500,000 so he could cover the cost more easily.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought today more Treasuries maturing on 4/30/23 at an yield of 3.95%.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I made several similar orders lately. But I have a slight concern with respect to Treasuries vs cash. Fidelity money market fund FZDXX yields 2.23% now. When fed rises rates, it follows accordingly, with a short delay, so perhaps in a week or two it will yield 2.9%, and then few months later it will be about 3.5% or more. All that with maximal liquidity, which may come handy if in the next 6 months market plunges and then start running up. I still think that 26 weeks Treasuries is a good deal as compared to cash, but this may be different for different people.