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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I think fixed income is looking better (perhaps fairly valued) as the 10-year closes in on 5%. Added a bit to WEA, GGN & INCM. / Some CEFs with leverage may benefit from a sharp decline in rates should it occur (not a prediction). Sold the smallish amounts of NSRGY & FLO held at slight loss to raise funds, wanting to hold cash steady at 10%.
    The funds mentioned above comprise my “equity & income” sleeve - about 18% of portfolio combined. It’s the only sleeve that contains more than a single fund.
    Added - At some point I may move the entire sleeve into OAKBX. However, I think the metals (GGN) have a little more life left in them, so would not want to vacate them completely. A sharp correction in equities would be nice and would speed the plan along.
  • 351-Exchange ETFs - A New Trend in Customized ETFs
    If you have large gains in a highflying stock & want to sell it to buy a related etf for diversification, there is one obstacle.
    The IRS will want its cut from your large capital gains.
    Except when you do a 351-exchange from SMA or advisory portfolio into a 351-exchange etf without any tax consequences. But there are rules & restrictions.
    Diversification test for contributed portfolio - single stock holdings < 25%; top 5 holdings < 50%
    Accreditation requirements depend on brokerages
    80% Control post-launch by the launch-investors
    Tax-free Seeding happens only at inception; no continuing in-kind tax-free contributions
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/762/351-exchange-etfs
  • Maturing CDs

    Seems to me to be two completely different skill sets-
    • A): Insuring that numbers are being computed and accounted for properly, according to established accounting principles.
    • B): Manipulating numbers in an attempt to increase their values and sums to the maximum extent possible, while also remaining reasonably consistent with safety.
    And like most skill sets, there may be some degree of natural interest or aptitude involved, but education and training are the most important factors.
    Yeah, you seem to have missed my point. And other posters routinely missing my points is the primary reason why I don't post a lot. That said...
    I said earlier "Conversely, the women, many highly educated and certified in high level finance positions, were largely uninterested, uneducated and inexperienced in wealth mgmt."
    I cited their FEAR as the primary reason for this.
    Having education and work experience in accounting, finance and bizness administration IMO should increase the likelihood that a person understands investing more than the next person, and is less FEARful in investing. (Duh, we not only read financial statements, we create them, audit them and issue findings and recommendations related to them!)
    My family was blue collar. Nobody in my family ever owned a stock or bond until I did. We were collectively FEARful of markets, primarily due to inexperience and lack of financial intelligence.
    I did not start investing until I got my degree. I would have remained terrified of financial markets had I not had my base level, formal education in accounting, then LT employment in accounting. So, I overcame my FEAR of markets largely due to formal, financial education and work experience.
    Over the course of my 35+ years in the financial work force, and a similar amount of time assisting friends and relatives with their investments, I saw the exact same effect on other men. I did not see the same effect on women.
    BUT, when the women I knew who did overcome their FEAR, they generally went on to be highly successful investors. And as some studies show, women tend to be better investors as men. The biggest problem appears to be overcoming their FEAR about it all. (The study I linked notes "stress." Stress is the condition. FEAR is the resulting emotion that is expressed.)
    YMMV.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Year in Charts (01/07/25)
    The charts and themes that tell the story of 2024, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:58 Low Expectations
    02:37 Goodbye Bear, Hello Bull
    04:07 Japan's Black Monday
    05:59 Fed Easing Again
    11:03 The Least Affordable Housing Market in History
    13:50 Everywhere You Look: Extremes
    16:13 Mag 7 Domination
    18:39 $2 Trillion More in Debt
    20:54 Expansion Continues
    23:24 Triumph of the Optimists
    32:30 What Comes Next?
    Video
    Blog
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    @Crash, please do not re-watch for my sake. 5 day old macro is as actionable as a 5 day old fish. Besides, next Friday is around the corner and we will get a new episode.
    I forgot, are you entirely at Schwab now? Their fixed income desk is at 800-626-4600. The reps try to help. Their website is a bit clunky for bond purchases but doable. Also, I do not enjoy their timing of crediting of the account upon maturity of bonds / CDs - I think they are mostly delayed relative to Fido and the fact that you have to buy in - sell out of MM creates additional transactional / investment friction. So, i mostly buy them at Fido but Schwab has some low minimum funds to access.
    Hello. The last individual bond I recall personally buying was in 2003. It was a foreign 10-year "zero." I did well. For political reasons, I refuse to go back to the same source. And given my home and extended family situation, individual bonds and CDs don't work for me. Schwab may have things arranged to be pain-in-the-ass, but I just never use that function, anyhow. Yes, for simplicity, I'm all-in with Chuck. Like you, I don't like to have to sell-out of MM in order to buy stocks, stock funds or bond funds. But I live with it.
    The political situation coming up is going to be "interesting," to say the least! It will surely affect markets. More volatility is surely to be expected.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    Re: 03 Jan, '25:
    Expecting elevated volatility, uncertainty. The 2-10 year spread is at highest in over 2 years. Due to fiscal concerns. Davis (BMO) likes relatively attractive current yields on both Treasuries AND corporates. He's adding duration.
    Ed Al-Hussainy (Columbia Threadneedle) is concerned about policy uncertainty, most. Political and fiscal policy. "Underneath," there is also the Fed's interest rate adjustment stance.
    Leslie Falconio (UBS Global Wealth Management) sees the monetary side has been totally recalibrated. Her firm expects only two interest rate cuts in '25. (June and Sept.)
    Al-Hussainy: watch to see what happens with tariffs.
    Falconio: Fed will most likely wind-down QT in 1st or 2nd Q.
    Duration, Leslie? Yes, more duration now, but only out to the belly, around 5 years. When UST reach 4.75 at 10-years, they'll add further out the curve.
    Al-Hussainy: duration is becoming a good hedge vs. risk assets, yes. Long end, out to the end of the year, is still quite "scary."
    ***********
    DELUGE of I.G. bond issuance expected.
    Already, $15B of issuance from Credit Agricole, GM and Ford.
    -A poll shows $200B of junk issuance in '25 is expected. (Expected to exceed last year's record.)
    JoAnne Bianco (Bondbloxx:) Still see opportunity in credit, especially junk.
    Akila Grewal (Apollo Global) Private Credit will benefit in the impending higher-for-longer rate environment.
    Sinjin Bowron (Beach Point Capital) Currently deploying money across the quality spectrum--- including "distressed opportunities." Distressed HY in '24 was a big driver of returns. But FR outperformed fixed income. Going forward, more bets into FR makes a lotta sense.
    (Akila: ugh! Her manner of delivery is off-putting. Sounds just rushed and canned.)
    Anyhow: Apollo is still focused on higher quality, First Lien stuff.
    Bowron: Coming into '25 there are both solid credit fundamentals and very tight valuations. And wider spreads should not come as a surprise, simply given political uncertainty into '25. Nevertheless, credit quality remains robust.
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    @Crash, please do not re-watch for my sake. 5 day old macro is as actionable as a 5 day old fish. Besides, next Friday is around the corner and we will get a new episode.
    I forgot, are you entirely at Schwab now? Their fixed income desk is at 800-626-4600. The reps try to help. Their website is a bit clunky for bond purchases but doable. Also, I do not enjoy their timing of crediting of the account upon maturity of bonds / CDs - I think they are mostly delayed relative to Fido and the fact that you have to buy in - sell out of MM creates additional transactional / investment friction. So, i mostly buy them at Fido but Schwab has some low minimum funds to access.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold a little VOO, added to ICMUX and also purchased a new 5 year Goldman Sachs 5.375% bond, matures 01/22/2030, callable 1/2027 so at least I'll get 2 years of 5.375%.
  • WSJ: Your Fancy, New ETF Might Be a Little Too Fancy
    Its a bit ridiculous. I was conversing with a few friends who are advisors and they were talking about how they are spending a lot of time helping their clients try and even begin to understand these products. and not because they want them to buy them but their clients are inquiring.
    IMO turn about is fair play. The industry has spent years purposely complicating their clients portfolios to keep the customer in the dark.
    but its crazy, these are technically niche products that 30% of all new etfs are them in 2024 is nuts. although it begs the question of how many new etfs are actually being created. 30% of 500 is less than 20% of 1000.
  • consolidate accounts
    This depends on your specific 401(k) plan.
    As YBB mentioned, some plans allow in-service withdrawals while others do not.
    You may want to check the 401(k) Summary Plan Description or contact your HR department.
    My 401(k) Summary Plan Description states:
    If you are age 59½ or older and still actively employed by company or a related company,
    you can take a withdrawal from your pre-tax accounts once a year.
    There are no early withdrawal penalties for this type of distribution.
    You may roll over a pre-tax distribution to another eligible retirement plan or traditional or Roth IRA.
    If you are age 59½ or older and still actively employed by company or a related company,
    you can also take a withdrawal from your Roth after-tax account once a year.
    There are no early withdrawal penalties for this type of distribution.
    You will also not be taxed on distributions of your Roth after-tax contributions,
    and the earnings on those contributions will not be taxed if the distribution is taken
    after you have had a Roth after-tax account in the Plan for at least five years.
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    Are there AA-AAA rated companies that would do seller financed purchases, with or without life estate (i.e., lease back)? If not, I would think there is a lucrative market for this product.
    I'm having trouble making sense of some of this.
    "Do seller financed purchases". What does "do" mean? Are you thinking of brokering (arranging) purchases? That is, finding an interested buyer and/or handling the paperwork? For those types of services I don't see what difference a company's credit rating would make.
    Or does "do" mean taking the buyer side in the transactions? There, the credit rating of the company (as borrower) would matter. But what's the business model? Would the company build up an inventory of homes that it is buying "on time" and resell them to other buyers?
    "lucrative market"
    Would the profit come from paying well under market value, as "we buy homes for cash NOW" companies do? But then the seller wouldn't have any motivation to provide financing.
    Or would such a company pay a better price for the seller financed homes? It might hope to make a profit from the use of the cash (full price) it receives from the sale of inventory homes.
    It would pay the original seller one rate of interest (the seller financing rate) and earn another rate of interest on the proceeds from reselling the home. But where's the spread? The company would be borrowing long term from the original seller. Or would you expect seller-financed sales to be relatively short term (say, five years) with a correspondingly lower rate of interest?
    Can you offer an example of a transaction "done" by such a company? I don't get what you have in mind.
    "life estate (i.e., lease back)"
    These are two different things. A life estate is actual ownership of property. A lease back is a rental where someone else owns the property. If you want more clarification, look up the difference between freehold estate (ownership) and leasehold estate (rental). See, e.g. here (it's not letter perfect, but gets across the general idea).
    As far as Selleck is concerned, it's not a bad ad.
    Unfortunately, his message to “explore the potential” has been confused as a recommendation older homeowners should get one. This may not always be the case.
    Obviously, the time restrictions of TV commercials limit content. To his credit, though, he created national awareness of a less-known and frequently misunderstood resource that has the potential to increase and extend financial security – a hugely common fear among aging Americans.
    https://southshoresenior.com/2024/05/what-tom-selleck-did-not-say-about-reverse-mortgages/
    These commercials do a good job of introducing the reverse mortgage product. However, the decision to secure the loan can be complicated and confusing.
    https://www.boldin.com/retirement/tom-selleck-reverse-mortgages-telling-truth/
    When you take out a reverse mortgage, the lender deducts an upfront fee. It also charges interest over the life of your loan. Reverse mortgage interest rates are usually higher than conventional mortgage interest rates, but similar to rates on home equity loans.
    Kiplinger, 10 Things You Should Know About Reverse Mortgages
  • Retirees Spend Lifetime Income, Not Savings - Working Paper - Blanchett & Finke
    No confusion. My assumption was before I read the thread, and was acknowledging you guys educating me. The only time I had previously heard about reverse mortgages was from the Tom SelecK Ads.
    In any case,
    Are there AA-AAA rated companies that would do seller financed purchases, with or without life estate (i.e., lease back)? If not, I would think there is a lucrative market for this product.
    I would like to defer gain and reduce cap gain tax but have to balance the risks of being a creditor for 10 years or more. The 5% (20 to 15%) lower cap gain tax + 3.8% extra tax on NII + state tax income tax on higher brackets + extra Medicare premiums can all add up.
    Let us see if the goodies Trump will dole out to unfreeze the residential RE market include targeted tax brakes.
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    USFR rate is a nominal fixed rate (assume zero) + weekly auctioned 3 mo Treasury bill rate. My guess is Trump will put pressure to lower this to at least 3% by the end of 2025.

    No doubt.
    And he wants the oil companies to drill until they're giving oil away because there's no room left to store it.

    Focus will not be on volumes but on costs and profits for the industry. Environmental impact may be the casualty but I think NIMBY Americans already know it and are fine with it.
    I think that's a reasonable assessment of what industry hopes to get out of their campaign contributions.
    Trump seems to dream of seeing oil rigs in sight of everyone's ocean-front property, except perhaps his own. Industry might have to drill a few test wells in the National Parks and Wildlife Refuges just to keep him happy.
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    USFR rate is a nominal fixed rate (assume zero) + weekly auctioned 3 mo Treasury bill rate. My guess is Trump will put pressure to lower this to at least 3% by the end of 2025.

    No doubt.
    And he wants the oil companies to drill until they're giving oil away because there's no room left to store it.
    Focus will not be on volumes but on costs and profits for the industry. Environmental impact may be the casualty but I think NIMBY Americans already know it and are fine with it.
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    USFR rate is a nominal fixed rate (assume zero) + weekly auctioned 3 mo Treasury bill rate. My guess is Trump will put pressure to lower this to at least 3% by the end of 2025.
    No doubt.
    And he wants the oil companies to drill until they're giving oil away because there's no room left to store it.
  • Auto insurance
    @dtconroe Nothing wrong driving a 15 year old car in my mind. I had a 05 Toy that I sold in 23. Changed oil every 5K miles.
    @fundly Thanks for the reply. I also use ERIE.
    @BaluBalu : Thanks for the reply. My insurance has no charge to have someone come out & fix the chip. I heard it hit the window ,but couldn't see where it hit. Later I found a crack starting below the wipers & watched it crawl upward. Drove it that way until I sold it.
  • Auto insurance
    I tend to get as much mileage as I can out of my cars before I replace them. I now own a 15 year old car, and a 7 year old car--only Liability on the oldest but still have comprehensive on the "newest". I attempt to use Kelly Blue Book to monitor what my old cars value is now, and I have found that I am continuing comprehensive coverage longer than I use to. Uninsured Motorist Coverage is something that I pay particular attention to, when I decide on car insurance coverage renewal, and find that I have more discussions with my local insurance representative about my options there. My wife and I still do some extensive driving for our age, and so car insurance, including AAA coverage for break downs and towing, are particularly important to us, especially in our travels with our "newest" car.
  • 10 consecutive days down (12/5-12/18)
    USFR rate is a nominal fixed rate (assume zero) + weekly auctioned 3 mo Treasury bill rate. My guess is Trump will put pressure to lower this to at least 3% by the end of 2025.
  • Auto insurance
    @Derf,
    I remember the chip was at eye level on the driver side. It was 5-10 years ago. The fix has held up. The kits are sold by all chain auto parts shops (Amazon might have it too). You have to use it before the chip becomes a spreading crack.
    @Davidrmoran, So sorry for what you went through. I hope you make full recovery. I will keep the uninsured motorist insurance. I keep both bodily injury liabilities at $300/600k.
  • Auto insurance
    I understand it's about minimizing Insurance Cost $/Yr but
    What about Umbrella Insurance on top of Auto Liability coverage ?
    If due to Old age or any unknown reason you or spouse hit someone else?
    Lawsuit are always in Million$+,going nearby or going to say grocery store/errand or within 10 mile radius from home ? Don't need It ?
    Thanks.
    Majick
    Well. I got hit by a car a year ago, not horribly horribly serious yet well worth avoiding, but fractured my pelvis and was laid up for close to a month (meaning awful, awful leg muscle loss ffs). $190k total healthcare costs paid for MC and the various insurances. This all in a no-fault state.
    The driver's Commerce liability / injury policy is good for $100k, and that paper check less 30-33% for the PI atty comes to me next week. My own AmFam (Costco) policy (underinsured yada) is good for $250k less his $100k, so $150k less the PI cut is said to be in the works. (No Medicare lien yet, though always a possibility.) My umbrella was not involved, possibly a foolish choice in checking boxes.
    I mention this adventure because even in a 'low-value' case, much less one with greater injury and loss or death, these coverages help prevent the liable party from being gone after bigtime. As I understand it. This driver (elderly, meaning my age; clean record) has property and a summer place to boot, all jointly held, but my attorney told me in different / worse circumstances it might well be worth chasing, and different PI firms take different tacks. (Mine is classy and genteel, and my atty said she spends a lot of her time sadly explaining to families that, e.g., medical shit happens, or the other driver is from out of state and seriously underinsured and has no assets, and so on.)
    So: for self-protection and especially if one has a sense of ethics as to liability, it is probably smart to get as hefty injury coverages as is feasible. I'm kind of waving my hands here and at the limit of my insurance details knowledge; I hope others more informed weigh in.
    Everyone loves no-fault even if it means your own company is giving you serious moneys because it's fast and efficient and the common alternative is endless litigation at all amount levels.
    [As for details some might ask, I was in a crosswalk (local hospital parking lot, no less) at dusk and he was slightly speeding and in physical distress to the ER (where I was also headed, having just dropped off my wife). He did brake but I was thrown like 12' or more. All on security video, eesh. I was treated and then sent downtown for screwbolts and more. I discovered the complete heavenliness of fentanyl. No wonder it's such a problem.
    [A year of quad and calf / ankle PT, raises and half-squats and lunges and whatnot, has not been fully restorative. This following tedious recovery from serious pelvis and nerve pains. I can now climb stairs normal foot over foot but need a railing, and certainly could not carry an infant or a bag of groceries; and my general footing and stability remain subpar. Supposedly it'll come by fall. My personal goal is to be able to shoot a normal free throw. Seems far off still.
    [For the criminal part of the story, the state prosecuting in my behalf, the driver's idiot lawyer rejected initial judge summer offer of probation (onerous in Mass. to an extent) and opted for jury trial. Which they lost on all counts in a record half-hour. I coulda been crawling drunk in the crosswalk and he woulda been liable and so found negligent. (Unless you jump out from behind a bush, in other words.) The lenient judge sentenced him to 2 more months of no driving (totaling a year) and I think 18mos' probation w weekly check-in. No fines, some court costs. The asst DA told me the driver's dealings with his insurance company and then with RMV, including coursework and retraining, will be not pleasant. Plus if you run a stop sign, much less get some worse citation, you can be incarcerated promptly.
    [It turns out the full guilt findings and speed of verdict actually sway the insurance companies on the civil action side, which I guess I get.]