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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • OEFs and ETFs capturing Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
    Thanks for the reply @stillers. Most importantly, yes the Bills now have me very worried with NE starting to play consistently well. The Bills O-line was down 2 starters and they were the #1 reason for the loss against Jax. Allen was under siege on every play and when that happens he starts making bone-head plays. The 2 remaining games against the Patriots will be pivotal for who wins the division. Hence, my 2nd favorite team next weekend will be the Browns!
    Yes, I noticed the big opening spikes FDRV has had. Once bought (w/a limit order of course) the technology is obviously a long term holding, so buying at 28, 29 or even 30 probably won't matter much in 5 years.
  • Small Caps
    From a WSJ January 10, 2021 article, "The Top Stock Funds of 2020
    Morgan Stanley’s Inception Portfolio, under Dennis Lynch, won the stock-fund race with a gain of 150%," the fund's performance was due to investments in several stocks, but not limited to the following:
    Square, Tesla, Zoom Video, Spotify and Twillo during the pandemic.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    For those not familiar, and those who will soon wish they were not.
    That was NOT a serious question. Rather...
    FD1000 is a constant troll of mine who is Living in the Past (Thanks, Jethro!) , desperately trying to discredit me wherever he goes, with whatever vague, twisted memory he might still retain from years of our joint posting activity on several forums.
    He appears to have no life other than his inherently flawed and underperforming Yugo Racing Scheme, while trying to sell his wares on whatever forum allows his continued participation. Sadly he somehow still however finds the time for daily trolling of my posts. If he would have just done what he daily tells "Average Joe Investor" to do, buy and hold an S&P index fund, he'd likely have twice the net worth he currently has. A tall glass of FOMO juice would have served him well. It's truly sad.
    FWIW, I currently have a smallish 5-yr CD ladder yanking down 3.35% APY. All proceeds from maturing CDs over the past several years have been rolled into stocks. The ladder was started after early retirement at age 56 to bridge the Red Zone divide. It's done its job exactly as meticulously planned and has been being liquidated for several years.
    For 30+ years I was 99% stocks. That dropped to ~60/40 in the coupla years prior to retirement. Since retirement I have always maintained an acceptable % in stocks but increased that to a significant % since the 2020 crash. I've posted all that several times on several forums, but somehow selective memory and ill intent can get in the way of some posters.
  • OEFs and ETFs capturing Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
    I've been watching FDRV since you brought it up @stillers. I put in a buy at 29 and another at 28. Closed at 29.71 today. We'll see what happens.
    FDRV had one of its first rough days yesterday that I recall since buying it, in part driven by TSLA's slide.
    IMO, limit orders are a MUST on it despite its increasing avg daily volume. BEWARE of pre/post-market trades - seen some people apparently burned there.
    WAG: Your $29 order might fill, but pretty sure the $28 price is in its rear view mirror (yeah, pun intended) for the time-being at least. FWIW, my cost basis is a little under $27. Its UP ~15% since inception, while I'm UP ~10%.
    If I haven't posted this yet, note that Fido Community Forum thread Electric Vehicles - What's in Your Portfolio has a great discussion on EVs with several posts about FDRV. Lots of bright posters participating on it. I'm just along for the ride (yeah, 'nother pun).
    So are the Bills keeping you on the Edge of Wetness (Thanks, Carnac) this year? Crazy season!
  • World Stock Funds-Are they a viable alternative?
    Found this thread to be very informative to me when selecting Foreign / World funds for a portfolio. Returning to this thread after some time has passed. When looking at the performance this year - it appears that Foreign Large Growth has outperformed World LG. Note: I own MGGPX and MFAIX and PRGSX. Anyone own any of these funds? Thoughts on performance and future?
    Foreign LG:
    PWJZX +22.04
    MFAIX +20.00
    BUFIX +19.94
    WCMIX +19.11
    World LG:
    PRGSX +16.70
    BGAIX +15.73
    MGGPX +8.85 <-- Not a great YTD (at all).
    Edit Add: Since thread mentioned FSEAX ... that's one fund I'm hoping to exit soon. I also own ARTYX and may keep position there for a tad in EM.
  • Biden admin considering shutting down Michigan pipeline ...
    So rail cars will be used instead...that makes safety sense.
    shutting down the Line 5 pipeline would require 2,100 rail cars to deliver the oil from Superior, Wis., to the Imperial Oil refinery in Sarnia, Ontario, just across the U.S. border.
  • Biden admin considering shutting down Michigan pipeline ...
    He's damned if he does...
    "Word that the Biden administration was quietly studying the potential market impact of killing the Line 5 pipeline, first reported by POLITICO, set off a firestorm of criticism from Republicans saying the move would worsen the spike that has already driven propane prices up 50 percent from a year ago just as Michigan residents — the nation's biggest consumers of the fuel — stock up for cold weather."
    And damned if he doesn't...
    "But equal pressure is coming from from environmental groups and Native tribes to back Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in her fight to shut the pipeline down. The groups say a potential oil spill from the 70-year-old pipeline that crosses the Straits of Mackinac would devastate the Great Lakes and Michigan’s coastal economies — a concern that grew after the lines were damaged by an anchor strike in 2018."
    Link
  • TREMX & PRLAX - Snarled supply chains force manufacturing exodus to Balkans, LatAm
    TREMX has had a emerging year (+60%...oops 55%).
    Major clothing and shoe companies are moving production to countries closer to their U.S. and European stores, smarting from a resurgence in cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus in Vietnam and China that slowed or shut down production for several weeks earlier this year.
    retailers-lose-love-asia-snarled-supply-chains-force-manufacturing-exodus
  • OEFs and ETFs capturing Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
    Also, a snippet from Barron's Review & Preview dated 11/05/21 follows.
    FWIW, our only specific play in the whole infrastructure/climate change/EV areas is Fido's recently incepted ETF FDRV. Up 11+% in less than a month. Nice bump in it Monday effectively explained in the last paragraph.
    YMMV. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Actual size may vary. Void where prohibited.
    Barron's Excerpt (Bold added):
    ...There was also a more concrete catalyst—quite literally—that boosted stocks today. Late on Friday evening, the House of Representatives passed a package of infrastructure legislation that includes some $550 billion in new spending. It’s part of a bill with a headline amount of roughly $1 trillion going toward investments in American roads, bridges, rail, waterways, electrical grid, high-speed internet, and other public works.
    Investors have had plenty of time to process the implications of the legislation, which passed the Senate months ago. Nonetheless, stocks of companies in affected sectors jumped today.
    Steel producers Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor gained 5.5% and 3.6%, respectively. Vulcan Materials and Martin Marietta Materials, which make cement and asphalt, rose about 5% and 3%. Caterpillar stock added 4%.
    But it was electric-vehicle charging stocks that saw the biggest bump today. ChargePoint Holdings stock closed up 12%, Volta gained 19%, and EVgo added 35%.
  • OEFs and ETFs capturing Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
    Stocks per MarketWatch
    https://www.marketwatch.com/discover?stackid=d848c2a2876e40432768c273f5448e67&siteid=nwhpm#https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/5-infrastructure-stocks-to-buy-now-that-bidens-bill-has-been-passed-according-to-jefferies-11636386524?mod=dist_mw_email
    I DO NOT endorse these USN&WR rankings, but for
    MFs:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/search?category=infrastructure&mutual-funds=true
    ETFs:
    https://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/rankings/infrastructure
    Stock and Bond Infrastructure MFs per Fido
    Fund Name (63 matches)View a detailed profile of the fund.
    FNSTX Summary - Fidelity ® Infrastructure FundNo Transaction Fee
    AIAFX Summary - Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Fund Class ANo Transaction Fee
    AIFRX Summary - Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Fund Institutional Class
    BGLAX Summary - Brookfield Global Listed Infrastructure Fund Class A
    BGLCX Summary - Brookfield Global Listed Infrastructure Fund Class C
    MLXAX Summary - Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund Class A
    MLXCX Summary - Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund Class C
    MLXIX Summary - Catalyst Energy Infrastructure Fund Class I
    RGIVX Summary - ClearBridge Global Infrastructure Income Fund Class I
    DHINX Summary - Centre Global Infrastructure Fund Institutional Class
    DHIVX Summary - Centre Global Infrastructure Fund Investor ClassNo Transaction Fee
    CSUAX Summary - Cohen & Steers Global Infrastructure Fund, Inc. Class ANo Transaction Fee
    CSUIX Summary - Cohen & Steers Global Infrastructure Fund, Inc. Class I
    NXGAX Summary - Cushing ® NextGen Infrastructure Fund Class A Shares
    NXGNX Summary - Cushing ® NextGen Infrastructure Fund Class I Shares
    BILDX Summary - DoubleLine Infrastructure Income Fund Class I
    BILTX Summary - DoubleLine Infrastructure Income Fund Class NNo Transaction Fee
    TOLLX Summary - DWS RREEF Global Infrastructure Fund - Class ANo Transaction Fee
    TOLCX Summary - DWS RREEF Global Infrastructure Fund - Class C
    TOLIX Summary - DWS RREEF Global Infrastructure Fund - Class Inst
    ECOIX Summary - Ecofin Global Renewables Infrastructure Fund Institutional Class
    FMSSX Summary - Frontier MFG Select Infrastructure Fund Service Class
    FMGIX Summary - Frontier MFG Core Infrastructure Fund Institutional Class
    FCIVX Summary - Frontier MFG Core Infrastructure Fund Service Class
    GLEAX Summary - Goldman Sachs Energy Infrastructure Fund Class A SharesNo Transaction Fee
    GLPAX Summary - Goldman Sachs MLP Energy Infrastructure Fund Class ANo Transaction Fee
    GLPCX Summary - Goldman Sachs MLP Energy Infrastructure Fund Class C
    ICBMX Summary - ICON Natural Resources and Infrastructure Fund Institutional
    ICBAX Summary - ICON Natural Resources and Infrastructure Fund Investor ClassNo Transaction Fee
    GIZAX Summary - Invesco Global Infrastructure Fund Class ANo Transaction Fee
    GIZCX Summary - Invesco Global Infrastructure Fund Class C
    JEEBX Summary - JHancock Infrastructure Fund Class ANo Transaction Fee
    JEEIX Summary - JHancock Infrastructure Fund Class I
    KARIX Summary - Kayne Anderson Renewable Infrastructure Fund Class I
    KARRX Summary - Kayne Anderson Renewable Infrastructure Fund Class RetailNo Transaction Fee
    GLFOX Summary - Lazard Global Listed Infrastructure Portfolio Open SharesNo Transaction Fee
    GLIFX Summary - Lazard Global Listed Infrastructure Portfolio Institutional Shares
    VCRAX Summary - MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Fund Class ANo Transaction Fee
    VCRCX Summary - MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Fund Class C
    VCRIX Summary - MainStay CBRE Global Infrastructure Fund Class I
    MGVAX Summary - MainStay MacKay U.S. Infrastructure Bond Fund Class ANo Transaction Fee
    MCSGX Summary - MainStay MacKay U.S. Infrastructure Bond Fund Class B
    MGVCX Summary - MainStay MacKay U.S. Infrastructure Bond Fund Class C
    MGOIX Summary - MainStay MacKay U.S. Infrastructure Bond Fund Class I
    MTIPX Summary - Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Global Infrastructure Portfolio Class ANo Transaction Fee
    MTIIX Summary - Morgan Stanley Institutional Fund, Inc. Global Infrastructure Portfolio Class I
    NMFIX Summary - Northern Multi-Manager Global Listed Infrastructure Fund
    FGIAX Summary - Nuveen Global Infrastructure Fund Class ANo Transaction Fee
    FGNCX Summary - Nuveen Global Infrastructure Fund Class C
    PXDIX Summary - Pax Global Sustainable Infrastructure Fund Institutional Class
    PGJAX Summary - PGIM Jennison Global Infrastructure Fund- Class A
    PGJCX Summary - PGIM Jennison Global Infrastructure Fund- Class C
    PGJZX Summary - PGIM Jennison Global Infrastructure Fund- Class Z
    RMLPX Summary - Recurrent MLP & Infrastructure Fund Class I
    SMAPX Summary - Salient MLP & Energy Infrastructure Fund Class A
    SMFPX Summary - Salient MLP & Energy Infrastructure Fund Class C
    SMLPX Summary - Salient MLP & Energy Infrastructure Fund Class I
    TMLAX Summary - Transamerica Energy Infrastructure Class ANo Transaction Fee
    TMCLX Summary - Transamerica Energy Infrastructure Class C
    TMLPX Summary - Transamerica Energy Infrastructure Class I
    PGUAX Summary - Virtus Duff & Phelps Global Infrastructure Fund Class ANo Transaction Fee
    PGUCX Summary - Virtus Duff & Phelps Global Infrastructure Fund Class C
    PGIUX Summary - Virtus Duff & Phelps Global Infrastructure Fund Class I
  • Small Caps
    @JonGaltill: DMCRX is closed, but you can get the same managers in their SCG (DVSMX) and SMID (DSMDX) funds. The performance of the former has been superior to MSSMX.
    "Whoa! Nellie!" (Thanks Keith)
    DSMDX is a MCG fund so TR comparisons with MSSMX are not apples-to-apples. Either way, MSSMX has better TR over 1-yr (only period available other than YTD) 81% to 51%. How is that "superior"?
    DVSMX IS a SCG fund like MSSMX but MSSMX easily beats DVSMX over 1-yr, 81% to 61%, and over 3-yrs, 55% to 37%. How is that "superior"?
    You MUST be looking ONLY at YTD TRs in which DSMDX and DVSMX and are a bit better?
  • OEFs and ETFs capturing Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
    This is the one Congress passed Friday late evening. Are you aware of any funds that showed in their price movement today indicating their slant to constituents that might benefit from this new legislation?
    I checked the M* infrastructure category and none of the funds' price movement today suggest benefitting from this Act. It is possible the funds already captured the benefit when the Senate passed the bill a while ago or M* daily price updates are stale, as usual.
    Some clean energy ETFs are up nicely but they have been considerably off their 52 week high. Of the S&P sector funds, XLB performed the best today with a gain of 1.25%. XES - Oil & Gas services subsector fund happens to be up 1.79%.
    Thanks.
  • Small Caps
    So I sold out of MSSMX as it began its slide in early 2021 and just recently bought back 1/2 position in it.
    I don't follow/use MFO Ratings so can't help you there. You might want to check its M* SCG 1-yr rating which is still top 3%.
    And it's still best in class for 3-yr, 5-yr and 10-yr periods, and Dennis Lynch is still managing it.
    From afar: I think you bought this fund at/near its peak, suffered through its slide, and are about to sell it when it's (IMO, that's why I bought it back) likely to get back into its groove. VERY volatile fund as you know. Maybe too volatile for you?
    Good luck whatever you decide.
  • This Risk Free Bond Now Pays 7.12%
    I asked the Treasury if an LLC with a separate TIN could buy another $10,000 and they said yes.
    I think the key is the separate TIN. If you use your own SSN on the trust ( referenced above) I think the the Treasury will link the accounts and refuse the second purchase.
    An LLC is pretty easy to set up, although you have to register it with the secretary of state, write an organizational plan and pay a fee. Some states require annual fees of up to $500, but many do not.
    If I were going to do this, I would use it for more than just $10,000 of I bonds, or at least plan to buy $10,000 a year for a while.
  • Climate change funds
    Barron's had a short article on Climate change funds, maybe in honor of the Glasgow conference.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/climate-policies-fund-choices-51636068332?mod=past_editions
    I have been putting small amounts into solar, wind and alternative energy ETFs mostly but a lot of them seem based only on indexes, and I think active management has a far better chance of success.
    The other push for "ESG" funds seems to be too broad to allow a focus only on the transition to a low carbon environment.
    This will concentrate on alternative energy, grid development, energy storage, nuclear power, materials like lithium, uranium, carbon capture, water infrastructure etc, not good governance, inclusiveness, or other desirable social goals that have little to do with low carbon.
    There seem to be only a few actively managed Climate Change Funds available, like GMOs' GCCHX but it has minimums far out of the reach of mere mortals. A number of hedge funds are getting involved, and have lots of information, but again unless you have $1,000,000 or more you are on your own.
    Has anyone done any significant research here?
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    @stillers
    Sorry for the slow response. I have looked at several managed futures over the years, including AHLPX AQMNX AMFAX CSAAX, but not PQTAX.
    AHLPX is the clear winner with better performance ( 42% vs -3% 26% and 25% with better risk metrics than my previous choices, although PQTAX is running about equal. PTQAX has only recently caught up ( last year outperformed by 5%) by a significant outpreformance in 2021
    M* still has a "human" analysis of AHLPX
    "Man AHL (this strategy’s subadvisor) predominantly uses a systematic momentum-based approach that aims to profit from trends in prices across various markets and provide uncorrelated returns. The approach looks for trends across a two-month timeframe, on average, which is shorter than the typical peer in the managed futures Morningstar Category. That can reduce the strategy’s drawdowns in fast-moving markets relative to peers that are slower to adjust. The strategy’s responsiveness was on display during the first quarter of 2020, for instance, when markets took a sharp turn. It returned a healthy 7.8% during the quarter, outperforming the category average return by nearly 7 percentage points."
    It is hard to determine how they differ in portfolio, and I haven't delved into that much, as up-to-date data is hard to find, and they change positions frequently.
    In the past I have read that the usual reasons for these funds performance is if they guess the trend in interest rates properly.
    Both seem to be better diversifiers than TMRSX as the latter fund has not delivered much with a correlation to the SP500 of .61, while managed futures are both - 0.15
  • This time it's different ?
    Barron’s is exceptional in the latest (Nov.7) issue. Several good articles touch on this overall theme. (And I’ve posted the cover art)
    - One writer makes the distinction between “market peaks” and asset “bubbles.” He thinks what we’re witnessing qualifies as the latter (good). When a peak turns into a correction or crash, most everyone gets hit. With bubbles you can move assets out of the overpriced bubble(s) gradually and into more reasonably valued assets (ie: funds, stocks, sectors).
    - One article visits a large public Crypto Conference recently staged in NYC’s Times Square. It hones in on a 30 -something aged woman who is amassing a collection of high priced “non-fungable” tokens. These digital certificates give the owner the “exclusive rights” to things like dog photos or images of funny looking hats that are actually free to view on the internet, In other words worthless. She learned how to “invest” on U-Tube and has also taught “investing” to her mother and siblings, who are now investing in these assets.
    Enough said.
    peace
    image
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    I agree opt out programs significantly increase participation rates above that of opt in programs. They may be the most effective way of boosting participation. However there is the danger of unintended consequences for lower income workers that tax credits or some other form of subsidy could mitigate.
    From the same report, pp. 24-25:
    Authorize Automatic IRAs at the Federal Level
    ...
    Advocates of automatic IRA efforts cite that the coverage gap between workers with and without pension coverage will decrease and that increased savings will reduce the burden on future social assistance programs. In addition, some researchers found that automatic IRAs implemented early on in individuals’ careers could increase retirement income for between two-thirds and one-half of individuals in the lowest quarter of the income distribution at age 70.
    Others caution that automatically enrolling lower-income individuals into savings plans may have unintended consequences. For example, increased savings could result in decreased standards of living during working years and could result in disqualification from means-tested governments programs (e.g., losing Medicaid eligibility due to mandatory withdrawals in retirement). One study found that automatic enrollment in retirement accounts may cause increases in auto loans and first lien mortgage balances. Another found that automatic enrollment may not necessarily have large impacts on household net worth over time.
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    "Fifteen percent of households in the labor force without employer-sponsored pensions indicated owning an IRA in 2019."
    Congressional Research Service, Individual Retirement Account (IRA) Ownership: Data and Policy Issues, Dec 9, 2020.
    https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46635/3
    So for the vast majority of people without jobs offering 401(k)s or 403(b)s, the size of the IRA contribution limit makes no difference.

    A retirement plan for those without access to traditional 401k/403b plans could include an automatic enrollment provision to increase participation rates. Vanguard released a study earlier this year which indicates that participation rates tripled in 401k plans with an automatic enrollment feature.
    This can be a very useful "nudge".
    PDF