Fed's Brainard: “Move with caution” on rates.
These guys all seem to be whistling from the same flute collection. Powell must be the master composer. They’re apparently in the process of shifting messaging from a fast paced Fox-trot to a slower tempo waltz. Something got their attention? Or perhaps they had preconceived notions of how far they’d let markets tumble before bringing out the stops. (Good luck guys.)
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Similar note from Fed’s Charles Evans on CNBC ‘s Squawk Box October 10:
“A little nervous about rate hikes …”
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ISTM Newton’s first law of motion might well apply here. Or to mix metaphors terribly - It’s a lot easier to start a brush fire than to put one out.

Everywhere you turn, the biggest players in the $23.7 trillion US Treasuries market are in retreat. From Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banks, where once they were lining up to get their hands on US government debt, most have now stepped away. And then of course there’s the Federal Reserve, which a few weeks ago upped the pace that it plans to offload Treasuries from its balance sheet to $60 billion a month.

https://fa-mag.com/news/the-most-powerful-buyers-in-treasurys-are-all-bailing-at-once-70058.html?section=3

Sounds like TD is really clumpy. Here is what is stated on TD for changing banking information:
To edit an existing bank account, click the "radio button" for the bank you wish to edit and click the "Edit" button.
The ManageDirect >> Bank Change Form Request page will appear.
A page will display with a link to a Bank Change Request FS Form 5512 to edit an existing bank in your TreasuryDirect Account.
You must sign the paper form in the presence of an authorized certifying official available at a bank, trust company, or credit union and mail it to us for processing. Certification by a Notary Public is not acceptable.
Your request will not be processed until we receive and approve your form with any necessary supporting documentation. We will notify you by e-mail when your transaction has been completed.
You may be able to do this by phone. To find out, call (844) 284-2676, choose option 4 at the first menu, and choose option 1 at the second. Or, if you prefer, you can send us FS Form 5512 as described below.
If you provided the routing and checking account numbers of Schwab bank account, TD should not have any issue. The routing number identifies the banking institution.

@BenWP, coincidently, my TD account link is with Schwab Bank and I haven't had any issues so far.
My TD account (Trust) did take about 6 weeks to activate after sending the requested Signature Guarantee paper.
This may help,
https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/help/treasurydirect-help/faq/#id-managing-my-account-536497
"To add a new bank or edit an existing bank account, simply select the ManageDirect tab, then select Update my Bank Information under Manage My Account. Click the Add or Edit button on the ManageDirect Bank Information page. This will take you to the the Bank Change Form Request page where you will be directed to complete and mail a Bank Change Request FS Form 5512 to add a new bank or edit an existing bank.
Note: The bank selected as your primary bank appears first on the bank information list and in the drop-down boxes throughout TreasuryDirect. To designate a different bank listed in your existing bank information as the primary bank, e-mail us by clicking the Contact Us link or call us at (844) 284-2676."
Complete the FS Form 5512, get Signature Guarantee from your bank/credit union, and mail to the address indicated.
https://treasurydirect.gov/forms/sec5512.pdf
Edit/Add: BTW, TD has redesigned its website, so if you have saved/bookmarked TD links, they won't work anymore. They need to be replaced or removed.

PRPFX is one of my oldest holdings. About 15 years. Does tend to track gold a little, so having an off year along with gold. I’m encouraged by today’s market downdraft. The NASDAQ is now almost 33% off YTD. A rough guess is we’ve now reached the half-way point on the way to market bottom. Whew. Quite a ride.

@MikeW, the stable value fund I use is a private fund offers through my 401(k), not assessable for the public. For alternatives, I invest in PRPFX after I replaced TMSRX and IAU last year. Also I invest in GPANX (multi-strategies) and PQTAX (managed futures). So far they are holding up much better than those from PRPFX and TMSRX. My goal to have closer to 10% alternatives since their asset correlation to S&P500 are less than 0.5 for the last 2.5 years.
One has to pay attention to the underlying components invested in the alternatives. For example, PQTAX has a healthy % in commodity, metals, agricultural grains, and currencies in addition to the derivatives that Pimco often deploys. Lynn Bolin calls it the “ black box fund”. Commodity futures have done well while tracking WTI prices and natural gas. USD is rising over other currencies. The others are flat. GPANX is a relative new addition, but it is has stay afloat despite the drawdown lately.
To migrate risk of the unknown, I like to build the position to the target % over say 3 months while watching how it responds to S&P500, for example. Consistency over various market cycles is something we are all seeking. Lynn’s article also pointed out recent severe drawdown day and YTD data that provided insights of how these alternatives behaved under those circumstances. The other is the asset correlation to S&P500 and to different types of alternatives.

Bear market or not, we often hear the mantra: Active managers can't beat index funds. This has proven to be true most of the time, but there are exceptions. If you can recognize when these exceptions may apply, you may be able to outperform even some of the best index funds. In this article, I will deal solely with investing in Vanguard index ETFs and unmanaged mutual funds and comparable managed ETFs and funds. Contrary to current perception, that there is a place for managed funds, especially when overall market performance is ailing, such as now.

unmanaged-etfsmutual-funds-may-not-be-your-best-choice-now

Thank for sharing your alternatives. I too invest in PRPFX after I replaced TMSRX and IAU last year. Also I invest in GPANX (multi-strategies) and PQTAX (managed futures). So far they are holding up much better than those from PRPFX and TMSRX. My goal to have closer to 10% alternatives since their asset correlation are less than 0.5 to that of S&P500 for the last 2.5 years.
BTW, AQR have a number of alternatives with good returns, but they require $1M even as investor shares.

Incredibly helpful info @yogibearbull. Thx so much for sharing. Managed futures looks enticing but worried that this year is a blip… Where are others hiding out in this market? I’m at about 50% cash and money markets.

Thanks guys. That remark was directed towards another board member as I recall. But not nice.
Markets run in cycles and usually overshoot on both the up and down sides. There are many funds / ETFs that short the overall market or parts of it and it’s natural that many will gravitate to those under current conditions. I subscribe to a newsletter that has been consistently recommending about 12% in SPDN. I played that game for a few months. But with the major indexes now down 20-30% from their highs, it’s not a game I care to play any longer.
Baring something like 1929, I personally feel the odds are in your favor now if you have a 3-5 year time horizon and own a portfolio of good equity funds. But I could be wrong.
Re @Sven’s earlier reference to “alternatives”. The only fund I currently hold that meets the strict definition of alternative is NLSAX. But I also include ABRZX and PRPFX in my “alternative” sleeve along with 3 stocks in smaller quantity. Of those, the insurer has had a great year (even with Ivan). But the bank and baker have both lost $$.

Also, if it helps - I have that pos`s bank information that he used to receive all our money. The bank wire information is Truist Financial. His bank account number is:
1340017489258. The Truist swift number is SNTRUS3AXXX. And we all know the account name he used was HMC Trading LLC. I wonder if Truist knows they were the conduit (or one of them) for this major fraudulent scheme?

New rates on 11/1/22 should be lower. Variable inflation has moderated but fixed rate may be raised above 0%. Estimates are 6.278-7.825%.

That is still higher than long term treasuries without taking on sovereignty and credit risk with emerging market bonds. We will but more iBond in 2024.

TROW is sitting around $105 today - off more than 46% YTD. Used to be only Cathie Wood could post those kinds of numbers. :)
I think money managers like TROW worth watching because it may say something about the mood of the retail investor. And it’s not an outlier. Generally, brokers and money managers, especially at the retail level, have been taking a beating all year.
TRBCX (cited briefly in the Barron’s thread) was off 37% YTD as of Friday. Largest holding is AMZ. Its ETF counterpart TCHP is down 2% today - so expect similar for TRBCX.
The war heated up over the weekend with Ukraine (reportedly) damaging a key Russian infrastructure and Moscow retaliating with a barrage of missile attacks on Ukrainian residential areas. Gold, typically a hedge against chaos, responded by falling about $35 from already low YTD levels. Go figure.
There are small pockets of green here and there today - some defensive consumer staples and isolated pockets of commodities - but overall the path of least resistance is down, down, down. Lots of shorting going on I’m sure.
With the NASDAQ now down nearly 33% YTD I thought a visual might be appropriate.

To provide some nuance, I will add the folowing excerpt:

If all of this makes you consider throwing in the towel on active management, you’re not alone. Investors continue to shift money into indexed exchange-traded funds and away from mutual funds. In the Large Growth category, some $16.2 billion has flowed into ETFs in 2022, $8.6 billion of that during the first two months of the third quarter. In the Large Growth mutual fund category, $54.8 billion has fled this year, and $14.5 billion in July and August.
The big ETF winners, flow-wise, in Large Growth this past quarter have been Vanguard Growth (VUG), with $2.1 billion of inflows, followed by SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (SPYG), with $2 billion. The biggest mutual fund Large Growth outflow losers were T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth (TRBCX), down $3.1 billion, and Harbor Capital Appreciation (HCAIX), down $2.1 billion.
Some 70 Morningstar mutual fund categories suffered outflows this past quarter, while most ETF categories experienced inflows or only small outflows. While September’s full-month flow numbers aren’t available yet, the mutual fund outflows are part of a longer-term trend that some have dubbed “flowmageddon,” which could have harmful tax effects.

I-Bonds rate is still 9.62% for 6 mo if purchased by 10/31/22. Annual limit is $10K/person.
New rates on 11/1/22 should be lower. Variable inflation has moderated but fixed rate may be raised above 0%. Estimates are 6.278-7.825%.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/209/savings-bonds-6-months-nov?page=3&scrollTo=803

@Crash: Voltaire’s Candide and its famous conclusion are quite profound investigations into what we humans can do in the face of a world which is a mean place. Voltaire attacks a philosophy then known as optimism which posited that this is the best of all possible worlds. Candide and his companions experience many horrors (the Lisbon earthquake of 1755, senseless wars, unmitigated violence, the loss of a fortune in gold, etc.) during their whirlwind tour of two continents. The philosopher Pangloss (a straw man mouthing Leibniz’s brand of optimism) is clearly ridiculous; Voltaire intends that we reject what he called « metaphysics, » by which he meant organized religion. « But we must cultivate our garden » comes in response to yet another foolish comment from Pangloss who recommends consulting a highly placed clergyman about the plight of the group of survivors who wind up in Turkey on a small farm. Candide’s comment literally encourages gardening, but more broadly urges us to take care of our side of the street, support our friends and loved ones despite their flaws, and reminds us to keep it simple.
Voltaire kept meticulous accounts of his business dealings and his gardens at his chateau at Ferney. Maybe he checked his portfolio a lot, it seems likely. Proust, however, was profligate, even going so far as to buy an airplane for his chauffeur with whom he was in love.

@Sven et al
Available money market funds used by many at Fidelity, to park money, are:
SPAXX = 2.51% yield (no minimum)
FDRXX = 2.59% yield (no minimum)
FDZXX = 2.96% yield ($100,000 minimum)

For FZDXX (2.96% yield), the $100K min is for Taxable accounts only. For IRA's the min = $10K.

@balyan55 and others, if you get calls from a site just because you searched for them on the web, those can be traps. Don't slide from one scam into another.