John Authers looks at inflation through the lens of the labor market.
"We can put the question of whether the latest dose of inflation is transitory to sleep; it isn’t, and many find it offensive to say so. But the question of how serious elevated price inflation will be and how long it will last is much more interesting, and much harder to answer."
Link

more nuance to the dynamics and variables
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20211119&instance_id=45812&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=74850&te=1&uri=nyt://newsletter/6a62367a-9f26-5e08-b070-ffc1bcb482c1

Good article from Kathy Jones again. Not sure why but there are seven missing figures in it.
My bond funds are having hard time already this year. There will be sizable headwind going into 2022 with several rate hikes.
@crash, I exited PRSNX in spring this year and added it to OSTIX (short duration high yield bond). High yield bonds tend to do okay in rising rate environment providing they are gradual, i.e. 25 bps at a time.

@sven. Thank you for that information! "Never say never," eh?

Inverse bond ETF. No... Because I'm not professionally paid to be in Finance, and that sounds about as convoluted as it can get..... I read that linked item last night, after having a tooth pulled, earlier. But my takeaway is that to be profitably in bonds, one should incrementally start adding to mid-and-longer duration paper. And it won't pay-off immediately...Of course.
RPSIX is a fund of TRP bond funds. I'm going to let it ride.
PRSNX ranks very highly against peers right now. Global reach, but dollar-hedged.
PTIAX is mostly Munis and MBS, and is listed by Morningstar as "Core-plus."
PTIAX is my newest bond holding, since 2018. I do not fly in and out of funds often. Deliberately. These three are not lighting the world on fire, but are holding up pretty darn well. The lowest ranked right now is RPSIX. But it's still in the top half, among Morningstar peers. I know that M* is faulty, mistaken and tardy a lot. But it's my handy reference.
I was planning to take a chunk from RPSIX and buy a bunch of TUHYX (TRP junk.). That very lucid article from Schwab asserts--- gently---- that I'd already be late to the party, on that score. So, I'll let what I'm already holding just ride. No changes, except that after the New Year, I'll be adding to my bonds: PRSNX, particularly. PTIAX can take care of itself, I've got a tiny trickle going in there every month, already, automatically. The goal is to continue to further insulate the portfolio from volatility and risk. I want to get to 35 stock and 65 bonds... But the stock market is making that difficult to achieve. A nice problem to have.

Thank you, @Crash, your comments are certainly informative. What are your stock holdings if you don't mind me asking?

Hello, @Mav123.
My only single stock holding amounts to a tiny sliver of one percent of my total: ENIC. Chilean electric utility. I'm looking at a loss these days which in percentage terms is big. But there's been lots of political junk happening, and on Sunday, 21st Nov. there is to be an election....
Fund-wise: PRWCX. PRIDX PRDSX and wife's IRA is in BRUFX. Both PRWCX (closed, still?) and BRUFX are allocation funds, holding both stocks and bonds. :)

@WABAC, you are enjoying life and that is most important after retirement. The ability to start at 62 takes planning ahead. Many of my friends took their at their full retirement age; few took them at 62 due to health reason. My family longevity history goes quite long and my health is doing ok with all that outdoor activities. So I am not sure which path to takes.

msf said: Schwab is projecting average real returns over the next decade of around 4.5% in the stock market and negative bond returns.

Would you please provide a link to Schwab? Thanks

Inverse bond ETF. No... Because I'm not professionally paid to be in Finance, and that sounds about as convoluted as it can get..... I read that linked item last night, after having a tooth pulled, earlier. But my takeaway is that to be profitably in bonds, one should incrementally start adding to mid-and-longer duration paper. And it won't pay-off immediately...Of course.
RPSIX is a fund of TRP bond funds. I'm going to let it ride.
PRSNX ranks very highly against peers right now. Global reach, but dollar-hedged.
PTIAX is mostly Munis and MBS, and is listed by Morningstar as "Core-plus."
PTIAX is my newest bond holding, since 2018. I do not fly in and out of funds often. Deliberately. These three are not lighting the world on fire, but are holding up pretty darn well. The lowest ranked right now is RPSIX. But it's still in the top half, among Morningstar peers. I know that M* is faulty, mistaken and tardy a lot. But it's my handy reference.
I was planning to take a chunk from RPSIX and buy a bunch of TUHYX (TRP junk.). That very lucid article from Schwab asserts--- gently---- that I'd already be late to the party, on that score. So, I'll let what I'm already holding just ride. No changes, except that after the New Year, I'll be adding to my bonds: PRSNX, particularly. PTIAX can take care of itself, I've got a tiny trickle going in there every month, already, automatically. The goal is to continue to further insulate the portfolio from volatility and risk. I want to get to 35 stock and 65 bonds... But the stock market is making that difficult to achieve. A nice problem to have.

Thank you, @Crash, your comments are certainly informative. What are your stock holdings if you don't mind me asking?

In the Foreign Large Blend category, I like SCIEX and MIEIX*.
The SCIEX management team also manages 30% of VWILX.
MIEIX has below average costs, low turnover, and usually provides good downside protection.
Mr. Ling started managing MIEIX on 10/01/2009; Mr. Webber began managing SCIEX on 03/01/2010.
Portfolio Visualizer Results from Mar 2010 - Oct 2021
*Morningstar fund category was Foreign Large Growth prior to 2020

Thank you, @Observant1 as well. I looked up MIEIX and noticed a large outflow of funds this year from M*'s pages. By the way, which brokers allow to hold/trade this fund as Schwab says: "Restricted".

Vanguard list includes ETFs.
Typically, you have to go to ETF sponsors' sites. There are so many ETFs and ETF sponsors. But I suppose that a thread can be started with the major ETF Sponsors, BlackRock, Vanguard, State Street, Invesco, Schwab. But then it would be lot of effort to make the list complete.
BlackRock https://www.ishares.com/us/capital-gains-distributions
Vanguard https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/FADIVDAT_2021.pdf
State Street https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/resources/documents/capital-gain-distributions
Invesco https://www.invesco.com/us-rest/contentdetail?contentId=d575f061-c209-45fe-a6f5-cf8d9735aae5
Schwab - I only found its general schedule https://schwab.bynder.com/m/15dbdbecf7339e7f/

I added to GISYX last week at Fidelity. The fund has been soft closed at brokerages for a while. GPEOX (not mentioned here) is hard closed at brokerages. Both were announced at the same time if my memory is still good.
Here is some trivial info -
When they allow existing shareholders to add, they mean literally. I tried to buy investor class and convert into institutional class but upon my last such gimmick, I did not retain any investor class shares and so I was forced to pay the transaction fees and add to the institutional class.
@Jongaltlll, my first post was to provide info to @WABAC in response to their post mentioning GISYX.

Is GISYX eligible for Fido’s Automatic Investment Plan? That would be one way to reduce the transaction fee to $5 per trade.

"Our forecast is to have a negative return on US stocks over the next seven years. I strongly believe that will be accurate."
GMO's largest equity fund, GQETX, and probably has more than 50% of all their equity AUM.
https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/documents---manually-loaded/documents/fact-sheets/quality-fund
https://www.gmo.com/americas/investment-capabilities/mutual-funds/

I recently tried to move a Roth IRA from Vanguard to TRP. However, according to Vanguard I have too sell the Roth so the money goes into Money Market and then it can be transferred to TRP.
Vanguard Customer service said they couldn’t advise me any further as they didn’t know if this would be a taxable event.
The Money would go into TRP Roth IRA. So my question is if I sell it and move to TRP as all Roth Contributions, would the IRS tax me on selling Roth IRA. I’m only 58.
Thanks
John

Good article from Kathy Jones again. Not sure why but there are seven missing figures in it.
My bond funds are having hard time already this year. There will be sizable headwind going into 2022 with several rate hikes.
@crash, I exited PRSNX in spring this year and added it to OSTIX (short duration high yield bond). High yield bonds tend to do okay in rising rate environment providing they are gradual, i.e. 25 bps at a time.

Copied from the Big Bang Investing Board ... Investment Insights Section ... for posting on the MFO Board.
This briefing is for the week ending November 19, 2021.
The Index Review
For the week the major equity indices finished mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back -1.38%%. the S&P 500 Stock Index gained +0.32%, the Nasdaq Composite climbed +1.24%% while the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index lost -2.85%. The three best performing major equity sectors for the week were consumer discretionary +3.74%, technology +2.39%, and utilities +0.98%. The widely followed S&P 500 Index closed the week with a dividend yield of 1.26% and is up year to date 25.08%. The widely followed US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) was listed with a yield of 1.83% and for the week lost -0.10%. Year to date AGG has had a negative total returned of -1.83%.
Global Equity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my global equity compass were QQQ (US Nasdaq QQQ) +2.35%, EWT (Tiawan) +1.41% and SPY (US S&P 500) +0.32%.
Fixed Income Compass: For the week my three best performers in my fixed income compass were TLT (20+Year US Treasury Bond) +0.70%, IEF (7 to 10 Year US Treasury Bond) +0.21% and AGG (US Agg Bond) +0.11%.
Commodity Compass: For the week my three best performers in my commodity compass were UNG (Natural Gas) +4.11%, DBA (Agriculture) +1.62% and GLD (Gold) -1.05%.
Producer Compass: For the week my three best performers in my producer compass were PIO (Global Water) -0.16%, MOO (Agribusness) -1.37% and TAN (Solar) -1.50%.
Currency Compass: For the week my three best performers in my currency compass were UUP (US Dollar Bullish) +0.98%, FXB (British Sterling) +0.14%% and FXY (Japanese Yen) +0.02%
A Blurb About Old_Skeet's Portfolio: My "All Weather Asset Allocation" of 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity affords me everything necessary to meet my needs now being retired and in the distribution phase of investing. The benefit of this asset allocation is that it provides me sufficient income, maximizes my diversification, minimizes my volatility, and provides me long-term returns.
The 20% held in cash area provides me ample cash should I need a cash draw over and above what my portfolio generates plus it can provide me the capital necessary to fund a special investment position (spiff) should I choose to open one during a stock market pullback or to take advantage of seasonal investment trends. In addition, cash helps stabilize a portfolio during stock market volatility. Example of investments held in this area are currency, money market mutual funds, FDIC bank deposits and CD's. Generally, this area benefits from rising interest rates.
The 40% held in the income area provides me ample income generation to meet my income needs in retirement. It is a well diversified area that incorporates a good number of income generating type funds. Some examples of investments held in this area are AZNAX, BAICX & PONAX .
The 40% held in the equity area provides me dividend income along with some growth, that equities generally provide, which, over time, helps to offset the effects of inflation. Some examples of investments held in this area are AMECX, IDIVX & SPECX.
From their neutral weightings, 40% each for my stock and bond areas, overweights (underweights) are allowed at + (or -) 5% with rebalance thresholds set at + (or -) 2% from desired weightings while cash is allowed to float. Thus the maximum weighting for both stocks and bonds could be as high as 47% each with their minimum weightings being as low as 33% while cash is allowed to float with a weighting range of 6% to 34%. So what seemed, at first glance, to be a very conservative asset allocation does allow for positioning based upon market reads along with some other influencing factors. Currently, I am overweight equity through the engagement of a spiff position and a little underweight in my fixed income sleeve due to anticipated rising interest rates.
Generally, for my income distributions, I take no more than a sum equal to what one half of my five year average total return has been. In this way, I have found, principal grows over time as well as the size of my disbursements. My objective is to continue to grow my principal along with increasing my income stream.
Articles of Investment Interest
Is Investing an Art, a Science, or a Craft?
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/969787/seth-klarman-is-investing-an-art-a-science-or-a-craft
Europe Lockdown Fears Knock Stocks, Spark Dash for Bonds
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-wrapup-3-pix-2021-11-19/
The Big Green Push to Get Rid of Coal Had the Opposite Effect
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-big-green-push-to-get-rid-of-coal-had-the-opposite-effect
Wall Street Forecasts for the U.S. Dollar and 10-year Treasury Yield in 2022
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-street-forecasts-us-dollar-10-year-treasury-yield-2022-2021-11-18/
Old_Skeet's Favored Reference Links
Short Volume S&P 500 Index ... https://nakedshortreport.com/company/SPY
Breadth Reading ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p25768973625
S&P 500 Chart, Elder Ray System ... https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20881173280
T/A Stock Opinion, SPY ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/opinion
T/A Bond Opinion, AGG ... https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/AGG/opinion
Thanks for stopping by and reading; and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet

“As you can see in the chart below, Dumb Money Confidence has surged … ”
They’re apparently referencing a chart published a few days earlier. Here is the Schwab article from November 15 which contains the referenced chart.

Inverse bond ETF. No... Because I'm not professionally paid to be in Finance, and that sounds about as convoluted as it can get..... I read that linked item last night, after having a tooth pulled, earlier. But my takeaway is that to be profitably in bonds, one should incrementally start adding to mid-and-longer duration paper. And it won't pay-off immediately...Of course.
RPSIX is a fund of TRP bond funds. I'm going to let it ride.
PRSNX ranks very highly against peers right now. Global reach, but dollar-hedged.
PTIAX is mostly Munis and MBS, and is listed by Morningstar as "Core-plus."
PTIAX is my newest bond holding, since 2018. I do not fly in and out of funds often. Deliberately. These three are not lighting the world on fire, but are holding up pretty darn well. The lowest ranked right now is RPSIX. But it's still in the top half, among Morningstar peers. I know that M* is faulty, mistaken and tardy a lot. But it's my handy reference.
I was planning to take a chunk from RPSIX and buy a bunch of TUHYX (TRP junk.). That very lucid article from Schwab asserts--- gently---- that I'd already be late to the party, on that score. So, I'll let what I'm already holding just ride. No changes, except that after the New Year, I'll be adding to my bonds: PRSNX, particularly. PTIAX can take care of itself, I've got a tiny trickle going in there every month, already, automatically. The goal is to continue to further insulate the portfolio from volatility and risk. I want to get to 35 stock and 65 bonds... But the stock market is making that difficult to achieve. A nice problem to have.

I have seen several posters thru the years providing detailed spread sheets comparing taking at 62 and investing vs wait and collect the benefit at a later date. Most "take it now" analysis forgets to reduce the investment portfolio by the tax owed on the SS benefit since most retirees collect other sources of income. They also fail to factor in the tax owed from the SS income + cap gains from the investment each year. If one waits to receive benefits, the base benefit will increase risk free.... this year at a 8% + 5.9% COLA with zero taxes owed obviously. The higher the base, the higher the COLA increase for the rest of your life. Possibility exists for significant COLA next few years. The other side of the coin is longevity... which IMO trumps everything. Most of my good friends died suddenly.

No one (including myself, Mr. Grantham, Dodge & Cox or T Rowe Price) is offering investment advice.
Grantham may be exercising a time honored persuasive technique.

This is an example of the tracking of the AAII Sentiment Survey that I do. It is available elsewhere and my intention is not to start the series here.
AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/17/21
For the week ending on 11/17/21, there was a decrease in the bullish sentiment but it remained the top sentiment (38.8%; now average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (27.2%; below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (33.9%; above average). Early December deadlines loom for budget & debt-ceiling. The decision on Fed Chair (POWELL or BRAINARD?) has to be made soon with Powell's term expiring in February 2022. Electric-vehicles (EVs) remain a very speculative area (Rivian/RIVN, Lucid/LCID, etc).
Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
10-14-21 37.91% 30.33% 31.75%
10-21-21 46.89% 25.36% 27.75%
10-27-21 39.83% 30.74% 29.44%
11-04-21 41.50% 32.50% 26.00%
11-11-21 48.00% 28.00% 24.00%
11-17-21 38.8% 33.9% 27.2%
Observations over life of survey
Avg 38.02% 31.43% 30.54%
STD 10.01% 08.36% 09.50%
LINK

“Grantham for all his long term predictions does not invest his funds in line with his predictions.“
A legitimate point. But I don’t invest according to my own predictions either. Does anyone?
Prediction does not = certainty. So some humility as investors is appropriate. What I attempt to do is tilt things in the direction I think will reduce overall portfolio risk while achieving best hoped for results under varying market environments. Not a perfect science. And beyond the scope of this discussion - except that philosophically it might help understand Grantham’s seeming hypocrisy. What may not be apparent in the list of Grantham’s investments (linked below) are derivatives he may have employed which are designed to offset losses in down markets.
One thing that set me to thinking about all this was Dodge and Cox’s revelation in a recent portfolio report (for DODBX) that they hold a 5% short position in the S&P, which they think highly overvalued, while continuing to invest in the stocks they find attractive. Quite an unusual step for this very conservative house.
And this from T.Rowe Price’s May 31 Annual Report for their Spectrum Allocation funds …
“As we look ahead, the central question for investors—assuming the economy’s recovery from the pandemic continues apace—is whether the returns on financial assets will be as robust. Valuations are elevated in nearly all asset classes, and in some areas, there are clear signs of speculation. It is not an easy environment to invest in, but our investment teams remain rooted in company fundamentals and focused on the long term, and they will continue to apply strong fundamental analysis as they seek out the best investments for your portfolio.” https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=ann&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77957L302
Note: The above was written 6 months ago. Can we say valuations are better now than they were than? And the “signs of speculation” less apparent?
Grantham’s Top Investments

Mr. Grantham's investments are quite aggressive despite his gloomy market predictions.
“This is going on as far as the eye can see. It’s an unfair advantage for green investing, Grantham said.
There may be a bubble that will affect this for a year or two, but it will come back bigger and better than other groups because of this tailwind. This is going to be the most important investment theme for the rest of your life.”
"To exploit this green boom, Grantham is making risky bets.
Venture capital and other private investments now compose more than three-quarters of the $1.4 billion in assets he manages across a foundation, a charitable trust and his personal holdings."
"Grantham says his venture-capital portfolio has returned 19% annually over the past decade, including a 102% jump in 2020, a 'watershed' year."

Link