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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    Hi @michaelt
    Regarding your reply and questions to Jim0445. He/she may not view this message thread again, to know you've written to he/she. However, if you place a @ symbol at their "name", as I have with you; they should receive an email notice, from your screen name here, directing them to this thread.
    NOTE: I am not able to provide any additional actions that all of you have already taken. It seems all of you have discovered the paths you need to use for the authorities, etc.
    The very best outcomes to all of you.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Looking ahead to Tax Year 2023
    “Taxation is the price we pay for civilization.” Oliver Wendell Holmes. According to fellow Supreme Court Justice Felix Frankfurter: “[Holmes] did not have a curmudgeon’s feelings about his own taxes. A secretary who exclaimed ‘Don’t you hate to pay taxes!’ was rebuked with the hot response, ‘No, young feller. I like to pay taxes. With them I buy civilization.”
    Holmes was a better writer than that. We pay taxes, not taxation. His words, excerpted from the source, Compania General de Tabacos v. Collector, 275 U.S. 87 (1927), were "Taxes are what we pay for civilized society". Priceless (no mention of price).
    https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/04/13/taxes-civilize/
    A phrase very similar to the familiar one is "taxation is the price which we pay for civilization". As Quote Investigator notes, this predates Holmes' dissent by 3/4 of a century. QI's citation for this 1852 writing is:
    1852, Journal of the House of Representatives of the State of Vermont, October Session, 1851, Appendix: Report of the Committee Appointed by the Governor to Take into Consideration the Financial Affairs of the State, Start Page 368, Quote Page 369, Printed by Chauncey Goodrich, Burlington, Vermont. (Google Books full view) link
    "The good news is America provides plenty of legal ways for people to avoid paying taxes, and the wealthier investors are, the more ways there are. "
    I'm not sure that's good news. For this, I'll point to the Oracle of Omaha who said that he pays less (in percentage terms) than his secretary in taxes. Legal tax avoidance techniques available to the wealthier often result in regressive taxation.
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    Hi Jim0445 - do you have any steps you think we should pursue? If this happened to you, what would you do? All of us victims have contacted multiple authorities SEC, FBI etc....
    What would you do if you were in our shoes?
    Thank you! Teresa
  • So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake? #2
    @johnN - why would you hold something for 3-5yrs if you bought at the wrong price? I don't understand.
  • Lights end of tunnel?
    i think the statistical measuring rods are just not showing RELEVANT data. Maybe they did, in days gone by. Before federal agencies re-defined stuff to make things look better than they actually are. It's all too mushy and opaque and convoluted. So THAT doesn't help anything, either.
    *Edited to add: remember when it was GNP that was reported? Not GDP?
    GDP curve doesn't look better (or worse) than GNP to these eyes.
    image
    Though zooming in on the past decade, one sees GDP slightly but clearly below GNP. Does the newer (lower) GDP figure make things look better than the older (higher) GNP figure?
    image
    Graph source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Vo1n
    GDP measures the goods and services produced within the country's geographical borders, by both U.S. residents and residents of the rest of the world. GNP measures the goods and services produced by only U.S. residents, both domestically and abroad.
    https://apps.bea.gov/scb/2021/03-march/0321-reprint-gnp.htm
    "For more on the changeover from GNP to GDP, [the Bureau of Economic Analysis] present[s] a reprint of the August 1991 Survey article on the topic."
  • U S TREASURY BILL DUE 04/20/23 DTD 04/21/22
    Stuff happens! But it wasn't a big mistake.
    In the Treasury purchase section at brokerages, the Auction and Secondary clicks are clearly indicated.
    It seems that unintentionally, you went into the Secondary section, and bought what you thought was a 26-wk T-Bill, but you bought this 52-wk T-Bill in the secondary market with 26-wks remaining,
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/A_20220414_4.pdf
    The correct purchase would have been this 26-wk T-Bill,
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2022/A_20221013_3.pdf
    Don't lose sleep over it.
    If you are buying 13-wk, 26-wk and/or 52-wk T-Bills for auction on Monday (10/31/22)/Tuesday (11/1/22), just be careful. As the announcements came out on Thursday, brokerages can accept orders after Thursday (10/27/22). Of course, Treasury Direct is now shut for maintenance all of Saturday and Sunday (you cannot login, but these general links should open - or may not).
    Bookmark this Treasury Auction Schedule,
    https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/221/Tentative-Auction-Schedule.pdf
  • TBO private board - respond to this thread to apply for access to the board
    Jim0445 your comment is not helpful at the moment. All the victims are conscious of their mistake. The private group is for victims of this scam to discuss the problems without public shaming.
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    Month over month is what tells us the current inflation rate. Year over year tells us a lot about past inflation, not that much about current.
    M-o-M for July was 0.0, August 0.1, and Sept. 0.4. Annualize those, and you get what the recent to current rates are ... nowhere near the year-over-year rate. But of course as prices, e.g., gasoline, fluctuate, those M-o-M figures are likely to vary, maybe quite a bit.
    Apparently figures like those are how the Bloomberg Real Yield crew in mid-month managed to crow that real yield on IG debt, like their name, is back after a pretty long absence.
    I'm still on the 6m T bandwagon; they're at 4.5% today with an auction coming up Monday. If 5% turns out to be the terminal Fed rate, as the RY guests lately have opined, there's still a runway prepped for higher CD and short-maturity T rates. I agree with dt that a roughly 6% peak on these safer investments is prob'ly a reasonable expectation. But if the Fed breaks something important before then, we might not make it there.
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    This is neither Treasuries nor CDs, but caught my eye:
    3.5% high-yield ordinary online bank account with Salem Five Direct, the online branch of Salem Five. Branches all over eastern Massachusetts. Mutually owned, not publicly traded. Just a $10.00 minimum. (Salem, Massachusetts.)
    https://www.salemfivedirect.com/
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    If inflation stays elevated and above the CD yield, you are still losing unless you own IBond.
    Still it is nowhere near as bad when the bond index fund this year, -16% YTD. You are indeed doing very well to stay positive this year while many of us are not as lucky. The CD yield will climb as long as the ST rate continues to rise. Sometime next year it may get above 5-6% yield and it become very attractive to lock in at higher rates for several years. You can also consider a CD ladder would cover all the base.
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    Just bought 4.75 matures 5/6/24. Ladder is beginning to look pretty good. Will keep checking every few days to capture steadily higher rates.
    Agree with Sven & dtconroe.
  • Best brokerage for Bonds and CDs
    I use Schwab Brokerage exclusively and they offer a wide array of CDs, at very good rates. You do need to be careful about the "Call" feature, as it is easy to overlook that possibility of getting a callable CD. I bought a Schwab CD in May of this year, and it got called in September. Fortunately, I was happy this occurred as it was paying 2.1%, and after getting back $200k that I originally invested, I was able to reinvest it in new CDs paying 4% and 4.25%. I can't speak to Fidelity or Vanguard, but I suspect they have similar offerings. I am looking forward to several other short term CDs maturing in the next few months, and I anticipate reinvesting it a short term ladder when that occurs. I have not ruled out shifting some CD money to bond oefs in the future, but I am not expecting the bond oef market returning to total return strength in the near future. Just as side note, I am able to hold almost all on my cash in money market funds at Schwab that pays about 3%. for liquidity purposes. I am retired, 74 years of age, and I am loving the higher CD rates for investments.
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    I am loving the higher CD rates--just bought a 6 month CD at 4% and a 9 month CD at 4.25%. I have several other CDs maturing at the end of this calendar year and in the early part of 2023. Owning CDs have allowed me to have a positive Total Return YTD. I am retired, in mid 70s, and I focus on shorter term CDs, which pay a monthly yield, and the predictable yield allows me alot of opportunities for what I want to do with the investments. As far as what I expect in the future, I fully expect another .75% rate increase in November, and possibly another .75% rate increase in December. For 2023, I still expect rate increases, but smaller and less frequently. I fully expect to get 1 year and longer CDs, with interest payments at 5% or more by the end of this calendar year, and I think they will go up closer to 6% in 2023. Since my retirement total return objectives have been 4 to 6% for several years, I find CDs as a no risk opportunity to achieve my retirement performance goals, with minimal stress and risk.
  • Steady rising yields in CDs and treasuries
    Just pick up some 2yr CD with Morgan Stanley yielding 4.7%. CDs will likely get over 5% after Nov and Dec rate hike. If CPI stays above the historical average of 3.5%, stock and bond return will struggle, 2-3% total?
  • Seafarer Funds’ China Analysis
    It's funny but this is the proverbial "blood-in-the-streets" moment discussed in another thread. But I bet few takers. The ETF ECNS for instance currently has a p-e ratio of 5 and a price-book ratio of 0.6. Those are Ben Graham levels of cheapness for over a 200 stock portfolio. Need steel cajones to invest in it though.
  • So... Are the past couple of days upward just a head-fake? #2
    Ty
    Good discussion
    Prog good time to buy becauses price got a little cheaper, if you are wrong probably need hold 3_5 yrs. Not sure if price get lowered than these levels
  • Lights end of tunnel?
    Sp500 retrace back near 3800s AH ..cant stay away from this level
    Corp bonds /junks, small caps mid caps maybe holding the lines...
    CPI data may break or make market early tomorrow
  • Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1644419/000158064222005391/inspirefaithwardlgcap497.htm
    497 1 inspirefaithwardlgcap497.htm 497
    Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF
    (NYSE Arca: FEVR)
    (a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust IV)
    Supplement dated October 27, 2022 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (the “SAI”) dated March 30, 2022 and Summary Prospectuses dated May 5, 2022, as supplemented
    The Board of Trustees of the Northern Lights Fund Trust IV (the “Board”) authorized an orderly liquidation of the Inspire Faithward Large Cap Momentum ETF (the “Fund”), a series of the Northern Lights Fund Trust IV. The Board determined on October 25, 2022 that closing and liquidating the Fund was in the best interests of the Fund and the Fund’s shareholders.
    The last day of trading of Fund shares on NYSE Arca, Inc. (the “NYSE”) will be November 18, 2022 (“Closing Date”), which will also be the last day the Fund will accept creation units from authorized participants. Shareholders may sell their holdings in the Fund prior to the Closing Date and customary brokerage charges may apply to these transactions. Authorized Participants may redeem baskets of shares for a pro rata portion of the Fund’s portfolio on hand through the Closing Date.
    The Fund is expected to cease operations, liquidate its assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders on November 28, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    From the Closing Date (November 18, 2022), through the Liquidation Date (November 28, 2022), shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Fund’s shares during this time period. Between the Closing Date and the Liquidation Date, the Fund will be in the process of closing down and liquidating its portfolio. This process will result in the Fund increasing its cash holdings and, as a consequence, not tracking its underlying index.
    Shareholders remaining on November 28, 2022 will receive cash at the net asset value of their shares as of that date, which will include any capital gains and dividends as of such date. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of Fund shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation. Once the distributions are complete, the Fund will terminate.
    For additional information regarding the liquidation, shareholders of the Fund may call 1-877-658-9473
    This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information and should be read in conjunction with those documents. The Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information have been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are incorporated herein by reference.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE