For the week ending on 10/19/22, Bearish remained the top sentiment (56.2%; extremely high) & neutral became the bottom sentiment (21.2%; extremely low); bullish became the middle sentiment (22.6%; extremely low); Bull-Bear Spread was -33.6% (extremely low). Investor concerns: Recession; inflation; supply-chain disruptions; the Fed; US elections; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (34+ weeks); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Thursday-Wednesday), stocks were up, bonds down, oil down, gold down, dollar down. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/141/aaii-sentiment-survey-weekly?page=7&scrollTo=811

Incredible. Boris is the Tory favorite to step back in as P.M. if Truss goes.

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2022/10/12/dynamic-withdrawal-rates-based-on-the-shiller-cape-swr-series-part-54/
plus the comments
site is in need of proofing, also dummies' summaries, plus fixes of what appears to be some sketchy java/html (?) coding; but possibly of interest to crunchers here

I don’t think it is funny that my 85 year old Vietnam ( LBJ’s War] veteran father and a man with a masters degree in Special Education with diagnosed with dementia is more verbally with it than a man with a finger on the nuclear trigger. There is no troll like than a liberal in self denial about putting a man in power who has obviously has cognitive decline and attacks everyone else who has eyes and ears to see it. God Bless America and it’s working class blue collar people .

Near the end of that song: “When the air becomes Urania …” - I was waiting for him to rhyme that with “Crimea” which would have worked lyrically. Missed opportunity.

May be nuclear attack by Russia.
That rich investor may be Elon Musk> Elon Musk supports Russia keeping Crimea—because he’s worried about nuclear escalation and World War III ('Fortune.com'.)

Could be. Musk could than use his “winnings” to hasten completion of his Mars spaceship. With some incredibly good luck, he just might escape this planet in the nick o’ time.

@Old_Joe, ^ is a symbol for power. Now to 2/14/23 is about 4 months, so the power (12/4) to annualize. Result is 1.04048, or rate 4.048% or 4.05%.

Math is surely not my strong point, but I have no idea regarding the above formula.
(100 divided by 98.686) = 1.0133,
then the "^" symbol (I have no idea what that is)
and then (12/4) which of course = 3.
How does all of this = 1.4048, and how does 4.05% magically appear?

YB-Let me try - Cusip - 912796ZU6 UNITED STATES TREAS BILLS ZERO CPN 0.00000% 02/14/2023 - asking 98.6860 ask yield 4.155 what will I get when it matures on 2/14/2023.
Thanks,
D

T-Bills are sold at discount. So, you buy at $98.686, get $100.00 on 2/14/23. My TR calculation is approximately (100/98.686)^(12/4) = 1.04048, or 4.05%, and that is close enough (better results with counting days).

YB-Let me try - Cusip - 912796ZU6 UNITED STATES TREAS BILLS ZERO CPN 0.00000% 02/14/2023 - asking 98.6860 ask yield 4.155 what will I get when it matures on 2/14/2023.
Thanks,
D

@kings53man, the secondary market for Treasuries is huge and liquid, so bid-ask spreads are tiny, unlike those for corporates and munis.
I do prefer buying Treasuries at auctions, but I was saying that it is easy to START a Treasury ladder by buying in the secondary market.

I think interest rates will be lower in 2 to 3 years, so I would buy either 3 to 5 year treasuries or solid corporates that are non-callable
Does anyone else have different ideas about how far out to go on the yield curve?
Any body tempted by "make whole Calls" ? As I understand them, if called the issuer has to also pay you the interest owed till maturity. While there is an opportunity cost if rates have fallen significantly, you would do better than with a traditional call.
Several low yield bonds ( APPL 2025 under 1%) are trading for 85 to 90, ie as almost zero coupons with YTM of 4 to 5%. I would think the issuer would be unlikely to call a bond with that low an interest rate.
There are others paying higher rates, which would also cost a bundle to call.

The ACA pre-existing condition requirement covers ALL health insurance plans unless it’s a grandfathered plan: https://www.hhs.gov/healthcare/about-the-aca/pre-existing-conditions/index.html

The information there is at best poorly written. If it is meant to describe only individual plans, the writing is poor because it doesn't say that. If it is meant to apply more generally, it is simply wrong.
Medicare supplemental health insurance plans can deny coverage (except during initial open enrollment period or in special circumstances) based on health conditions.
https://www.medicare.gov/supplements-other-insurance/when-can-i-buy-medigap
There is a lot in the ACA that is specifically targeted to Medicare. So I don't wish to give the impression that the ACA does not apply at all to Medicare.
In addition to Medicare supplemental plans, the medical underwriting restrictions in the ACA do not apply to large employer plans. Though they do apply to small employer plans. The rationale for the distinction is that if a small employer has one employee who is costly to insure, and if the insurer consequently hikes the plan rate, it could become unaffordable for the employer. Health coverage for every employee might vanish as a result.

The Affordable Care Act limits the factors that can be used to charge consumers greater health insurance premiums. For insurance coverage effective January 1, 2014, health insurance issuers in the individual and small group markets are allowed to vary premiums based on age (within a 3:1 ratio for adults), tobacco use (within a 1.5:1 ratio and subject to wellness program requirements in the small group market), family size, and geography.

https://www.cms.gov/CCIIO/Programs-and-Initiatives/Health-Insurance-Market-Reforms/Market-Rating-Reforms

The US SPR is getting alarmingly low. Increasingly, the SPR is involved in the US oil policy and the fiscal/budget policy.
In the WH announcement, notably item #2 implies using futures contracts, probably privately negotiated, not the public futures markets; or a mix of the two. Those futures prices are seen at CME for 2024 but there isn't any meaningful trading activity or volume in those futures.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/18/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-announce-new-actions-to-strengthen-u-s-energy-security-encourage-production-and-bring-down-costs/
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.quotes.html

Here in California, ARCO has perhaps the lowest cost gasoline. Since the composition of the profit margin for fuel from any gas station is a "black box", it's pointless to wonder what part of the price may be ascribed to anything.
...
ARCO's price differential between cash and credit is also significant. So it's a no-brainer: if there's a convenient ARCO station, go there, use cash.

Years ago (the last time I lived near ARCO stations), ARCO didn't take credit cards and sold cheaper grade (not Top Tier™) gasoline.
Apparently not any more. ARCO's moved up in the world. Still cheaper, though.
https://www.savingadvice.com/articles/2020/10/30/1034665_is-arco-gas-bad-for-your-car.html
This got me looking, Where I live, the cheaper stations tend to be BP (no ARCOs). It seems that last year BP stopped selling Top Tier gasoline. Though BP claims that its Invigorate® additive exceeds Top Tier requirements.
Invigorate® FAQ
On the investment side, BP purchased ARCO in 1999. In 2012 it sold the ARCO brand and a refinery to Tesoro (now part of Marathon Petroleum), while licensing back the name for gas stations in Northern California, Oregon, and Washington State.
As near as I can tell, OJ's ARCO station is still owned by BP. I don't know what brand gasoline comes out of its pumps.

Graust - my understanding was 1/4 of 5.75 but wrote incorrectly - will fix.
I am looking at new issue now in my fidelity account - cusip - 17330RME2 CITIGROUP GLOBAL MKTS HLDGS IN SER N 5.45000% 10/21/2024 MTN - looks like 2 year Bond - callable after 1 year and then can be quarterly.
Rating: Moody's: A2
Rating: S&P: A
Coupon: 5.75
Maturity: 10/21/2024
Callable: Yes - after 1 year and then quarterly.
My understanding - will collect 2.725 every six months - 2 times (i.e. 1 year) and then the accumulated interest with face value when it matures or called.
Plan is to hold till maturity or called.
Just 10K investment so moving slow, hopefully dust will settle by then.
Thanks,
D

This helped me a lot.
(Snip)
Plan is to collect 5.75% every 3 months till maturity or called earlier.
(Snip)
Thanks a lot to everyone.
D

Just a reminder that the 5.75% is annual…so you will get a quarter of that (1.875%?), every quarter :)
Never thought I would actually be buying treasuries, or CDs, or individual bonds in general, in my investing account! Thanks everyone for all the knowledge-sharing!

YB - I am just starting my journey on this individual bond purchase so not confident about buying bonds in secondary market at this time
Progress - I checked my Fidelity account - trade executed today at 3:58 p.m. I now own 100 bonds of 3134GX4W1 FEDERAL HOME LN MTG CORP MTN 5.75000% 10/27/2027. I will ignore the market price which will fluctuate. I expect to get 143.75 every quarter till the bond is called.
Next looking for Corporate bond category - JohnN mentioned about it - will look for new issue and will come back with Q.
Thanks to all of you for helping me in this journey.
D

Yup, she won't be there for too very long. No love for Labour, either, after they screwed Corbyn.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/25/what-really-happened-during-labours-anti-semitism-crisis
https://www.ajiunit.com/investigation/the-labour-files/

Outside of the US, surcharges for credit card purchases are common. Once when I returned from a foreign trip, I was surprised to see not only 4% card surcharges (expected) but also 3% currency fees (unexpected), for a total of 7%!
Merchants have dealt with these costs for a long time (sale-billing-payment; even check payments may take several days to clear and some may bounce). In pre-credit-card days, "factoring" was common - merchants sold 30-90 day receivables at 3-5% discount to raise quick cash. So, they didn't mind much when a more efficient credit card system developed and credit card "interchange" fees replaced the old "factoring" costs (messy, cumbersome, inefficient). Merchants may complain about such costs, but they have been used to these 3-5% sales related costs for decades, if not centuries.

Here in California, ARCO has perhaps the lowest cost gasoline. Since the composition of the profit margin for fuel from any gas station is a "black box", it's pointless to wonder what part of the price may be ascribed to anything.
That makes the choice very clear: ARCO's prices, both cash and credit, are clearly posted for comparison against competitors, and ARCO prices are typically much lower- 30, 40, 50¢ per gallon... sometimes even more, especially when compared to Chevron.
ARCO prices are roughly equivalent to Costco, but Costco stations are few and far between, and of course there's the membership charge at Costco.
ARCO's price differential between cash and credit is also significant. So it's a no-brainer: if there's a convenient ARCO station, go there, use cash. Every week we travel back and forth between SF and our weekend place, and fortunately there's an 18-pump ARCO just north of the Golden Gate bridge, with some of the lowest prices in the Bay Area.