Since 1928¹ there have only been three other instances of 25%+ returns in back-to-back years:
1935 (+47%) and 1936 (+32%)
1954 (+53%) and 1955 (+33%)
1997 (+33%) and 1998 (+28%)
So what happened next?
Something for everyone:
1937: -35%
1956: +7%
1999: +21%
Terrible, decent and great. Not helpful.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/2024-it-was-another-good-year-in-the-stock-market/
¹ "Standard & Poor's, initially known as the Standard Statistics Company, created its first stock market index in 1923.
It consisted of the stocks of 233 companies and was computed weekly.
Three years later, it developed a 90-stock composite price index computed daily.
That was expanded over the years.
On March 4, 1957, the Standard & Poor's 500 was introduced."
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-sp-timeline-idUSBRE9450WL20130506/

Such a strong rally leads us to higher-than-normal valuations. Will we pay the piper in 2025?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/likely-stock-market-crashes-under-095100991.html
"What's particularly worrisome is what's happened in the wake of Shiller P/E readings above 30 throughout history. There have been only six occurrences in 154 years where the Shiller P/E has topped 30, including the present, and the previous five were eventually followed by declines ranging from 20% to 89% in the Dow, S&P 500, and/or Nasdaq Composite. In other words, premium valuations aren't tolerated over long periods.
And the S&P 500's Shiller P/E isn't the only valuation tool sounding alarm bells. The "Buffett Indicator," named after Berkshire Hathaway's investor extraordinaire Warren Buffett, hit an all-time high in December.
The Buffett Indicator, which divides the market cap of all publicly traded companies into U.S. gross domestic product (GDP), was labeled by the Oracle of Omaha as "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment" in 2001. Whereas this market-cap-to-GDP ratio has averaged 85% (0.85) since 1970, it touched 209% in December 2024."

Thanks to @bee, here is last fall’ WeathTrack interview on David Giroux. Please scroll down to find it.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/184746/#Comment_184746
Giruox became bearish on the market due to the historical high valuation. Unlike his previous interviews, he seemed uncomfortable this time. Now he is forecasting a down year and that is rare coming from him. Everyone ignore Mike Wilson of Moran Stanley who is a perennial bear and being off for majority of the time. Maybe Wilson will be spot on this year.
Wonder what moves he is taking to migrate the risk in 2025? In light of rising yield of long Treasury, the asset correlation of bonds and stocks are merging as shown in recent weeks.

I'm playing this game by bundling cap gains into some years and ordinary income into others.
A few techniques to bundle ordinary income
- Do Roth conversions in "ordinary income years".
- Buy short term (1 year or less) CDs/T-bills in "cap gains years" that mature in "ordinary income years"
- Invest in muni (MM, bond) funds in "cap gains years", and taxable (Treasury, corporate) funds in "ordinary income years"
A couple of techniques to bundle cap gains
- Accelerate recognition of gains (sell and repurchase if desired) in "cap gains years"
- Sell "around" annual distributions - avoid distributions of ordinary income (if any) and repurchase after record date (recognizes additional cap gains)
Depending on how much space you have in your 0% cap gains bracket, creating more cap gains may or may not work out for you. In any case, the added cap gains are state-taxable, so that should be kept in mind as well.
On the flip side, Roth conversions may be partially or fully state tax-exempt, depending on the state. That's motivation to convert some money even if it eats into the 0% cap gains bracket.
Note that the numbers presented in the graph are incorrect.
Cap gains: $47,025 (top of 0% bracket) + $14,600 (std ded.) = $61,625, not $63,475
Ordinary inc: $47,150 (top of 12% bracket) + $14,600 (std ded.) = $61,750, not $63,475
Note also that the cap gains bracket does not line up exactly with the ordinary income bracket (as given by the IRS). Close, but different.
It looks like the author may have been adding in the 2023 extra deduction ($1,850) for being over age 65 (or blind). That would make the cap gains figure come out to $63,475.

I thought I knew a lot about investing until opening a brokerage account at Fido 4-5 years ago. Much wider landscape to work with than just having investments at a few different houses. So am still learning. But I do know my 2022 (bear market) return was better by 2 or 3 points then it would have been if stuck in the previous fund houses. From my (broad) family experience of 70+ years the real issue is convincing someone to save during their working years, Without having something to invest, all the coaching in the world can’t help you in retirement.
I’ll vote for better financial education: ”Give a man a fish, and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish, and you feed him for a lifetime.”
Great discussion. Thanks @stillers for the lengthy comment.

Michael Cembalest is the Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy at JP Morgan Asset Management.
Since 2005, Michael has been the author of the Eye on the Market, which covers a wide range of topics across markets, investments, economics, politics, energy, municipal finance and more.
For 2025:
Deregulation, deportations, tariffs, tax cuts, cost cutting, crypto, oil & gas, medical freedom and Agency purges: What could possibly go wrong?

Very Interesting Article and Video Presentation.
market-insights/eye-on-the-market/outlook-2025

From The article:

For 2024, individuals with taxable income below $47,025 ($94,050 for married couples) pay 0% tax for long-term capital gains (LTCG). In years when you’re under the threshold you could effectively lock in tax-free long-term gains. The idea would be to realize just enough LTCG to stay within the 0% tax bracket. You also have to tack on the standard deduction which is $15,000 for individuals or $30,000 for a married couple. That means don’t have to pay federal income taxes on your long-term capital gains until your income exceeds a little more than $63,000 (single) or $126,000 (married couple). So you could realize more than $63,000 ($126,000) in capital gains and dividends without paying any federal income tax.

Link to Article:
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/how-to-pay-nothing-in-taxes-during-retirement/

I searched for DMX and didn't find any announcements or mentions at MFO or BB. It seems to me that a new active etf from a well-known provider is a notable event.
DMX - website info https://doubleline.com/funds/multi-sector-income-etf/
DMX Prospectus https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001886172/000119312524261677/d885097d485bpos.htm
DoubleLine etf Trust Activities https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1886172

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 10 January 2025, reflecting risk and return metrics thru December. Flows remain through Friday, 3 January.

@rforno: I can't locate any info on that UTG 60% ROC. Do you have a source?
If you like the sector and the managers take a look at UTES. However if it's the income you were after don't bother. DNP might be an income source.

Their 19(a) filing from December
https://api-funds.paralel.com/download_resource/?id=6372&ticker=UTG
DNP is also spitting out huge ROC in December - 83% of current distro.
https://www.dpimc.com/assets/files/jd/dnp_19anotice-1-9-25.pdf
Again, not panicking just watching. Some ROC is okay, some destructive ROC is tolerable ... I just want to poke around more before diving back into CEFs.

I thoroughly enjoy the round-table discussions every January. This week’s is the first of three. Mainly covers each panel member’s market outlook for 2025. The usual gang. I won’t bother pulling up the names. David Giroux leads off. Bearish on the market citing high PEs. Expects the S&P to finish the year substantially lower at around 5300. Nearly all members note the extreme concentrations that exist at the top of the S&P and NASDQ. This alarms most, but some find it justified based on fundamentals.
A few are neutral to upbeat. Abby Joseph Cohen recommends some foreign stocks, including one in Japan and one in China. She thinks that China’s markets may have bottomed. I try to read between the lines / under the surface to garner what insights into investing there might be. Henry Ellenbogen’s thoughts on small caps are always perceptive, even if I don’t invest in the sector. The ”elephant in the room” that pervades the discussion seems to be interest rates, although predictions are hard to find - a discussion that calls to mind the whimsical “one-armed economist.”
A chuckle from one of the readers who commented on the article:
”Did Barron’s send a bus to the rest home to pick up this rogue’s gallery of elderly prognosticators? Ms Cohen hasn’t picked a winner since she shorted the Dutch tulip bulb market and has been coasting since then. Mr Priest appears to have been disinterred for his photo. Let’s have some new panelists and fresh perspectives instead of this stale bunch.”

DoubleLine had launched 3 multi-asset funds:
DL Multi-Asset Growth - liquidated 10/2023
DL Multi-Asset Trend DBMOX / DLMOX - to be liquidated 02/2025; tiny AUM $10 million
DL Multi-Asset Income etf DMX; small AUM $25.9 million; 11/2024-
I haven't been following these DL funds, but I could have advised DL of its folly. Investors in multi-asset funds don't go for trend or growth. So, DMX was the only viable one and it has gathered respectable AUM in just 6 weeks.
BTW, Vanguard shut its multi-asset fund. Fido (FMSDX / FAYZX) and BlackRock/BLK (BAICX / BIICX) still have multi-asset funds.
For a while, there was quite a bit of hype about multi-asset funds as a modern version of the old Allocation/balanced funds, but the hype didn't pan out.

Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2024/Q4–January 13, 2025)
https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
(Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2024/Q4 and YTD to 12/31/24)
(No Supplement – it’s all within the main issue)
Pg 12:2024 was tough for stockpickers. So, look at the holdings of the top funds – LC-PAGDX, LC-BRAGX, MC-RCMFX, SC-HFCGX. Those included Magnificent 7, big tech, financials, energy. What may work for 2025? AI, energy, materials, infrastructure, travel.
Pg 14: In this Trump market, just follow the leaders. Watch cryptos, the best M* category (Digital Assets) of 2024, followed far behind by the MLPs. Trump and sons have a crypto venture called World Liberty Financial. Bonds and rate sensitive plays (utilities, real estate, etc) were laggards with the exception of financials that should benefit from coming deregulations. Funds related to Trump’s circle of friends did very well – PTIR (2x PLTR), TSLL (2x TSLA), MLXIX (9.6% in ET).
SP500 has 33% in tech and 13% in financials and did quite well in 2024 with +25% despite softness in stocks in 2024/Q4. The total ETF AUM was over $10 trillion with 4 ETFs among the top 10 being the SP500 ETFs. Inflows into ETFs, including the active ETFs, were strong. Mutual funds had outflows. Foreign funds didn’t do well (the US investor returns were also hurt by a strong dollar). (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
More on Funds & Retirement
RETIREMENT. Super Catchup for 401k/403b from 2025. Another Secure 2.0 provision for catchups for 401k, 403b, government 457 and federal TSP kicks in 2025.
For 55+ $7,500 (regular)
For 60-63 $11,250 (higher of $10,000 and 150% of regular catchup)
SIMPLE retirement plan catchups are also adjusted: 55+ $3,500, 60-63 $5,250.
Priority order – 401k to employer match, Roth IRA, HSA, top off 401k.
Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows.
https://i.ibb.co/dDw0rm1/Barrons-Cash-Track-011125.png
Q4 Top 5 Fund Categories (MFOP)
https://i.ibb.co/5x4xYCK/MFOP-Quarterly-Top5-010925.png
Q4 Bottom 5 Fund Categories (MFOP)
https://i.ibb.co/R69M4pz/MFOP-Quarterly-Bottom5-010925.png
LINK

Spectating today, as Mr. Market falls due to GOOD news about jobs.
Divorce between Wall St. and Main St.

There's often a disconnect between Main St. and Wall St.
Perhaps minor setbacks will allow U.S. markets to rise further this year while climbing a "wall of worry" ?
I wouldn't bet on another 25% return for the S&P 500, though.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1480207/000089418925000127/dblmatliquidationsupplemen.htm
497 1 dblmatliquidationsupplemen.htm 497
DoubleLine Funds Trust (the “Trust”)
DoubleLine Multi-Asst Trend Fund (the “Fund”)
Supplement dated January 10, 2025 to the Fund’s Summary Prospectus (the “Summary
Prospectus”), Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) and Statement of Additional Information (the
“SAI”), each dated July 23, 2024
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Summary
Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI and should be read in conjunction with the Summary
Prospectus, Prospectus and SAI.
The Board of Trustees of DoubleLine Funds Trust has approved a plan of liquidation for the Fund. The liquidation of the Fund is expected to take place on or about February 28, 2025 (the “Liquidation Date”). Effective after the close of business on January 24, 2025, the Fund’s shares will no longer be available for purchase by new investors or existing investors (other than qualified plans). Dividend reinvestments (where applicable) will continue until the Liquidation Date.
The proceeds per share to be distributed to each shareholder of record on the Liquidation Date will be the net asset value per share of the relevant class of shares of the Fund less any required tax withholdings, after all expenses and liabilities of the Fund have been paid or otherwise provided for. For U.S. federal income tax purposes, the receipt of liquidation proceeds will generally be treated as a taxable event and may result in a gain or loss. At any time prior to the Liquidation Date,
shareholders of the Fund may redeem or, subject to investment minimums and other applicable restrictions on exchanges, exchange their shares of the Fund for shares of the appropriate class of another DoubleLine fund (if available) pursuant to the procedures set forth under “Other Account Policies—Exchange Privilege” in the Prospectus.
In anticipation of the liquidation of the Fund, DoubleLine Alternatives LP, the Fund’s investment adviser, may manage the Fund in a manner intended to facilitate its orderly liquidation and the Fund’s portfolio may be reduced to cash, cash equivalents or other short-term investments on or prior to the Liquidation Date. As a result, during this time, all or a portion of the Fund may not be invested in a manner consistent with the Fund’s stated investment strategies, which may prevent the Fund from achieving its investment objective.
The sale of portfolio holdings will result in the Fund realizing gains or losses, and the proceeds payable to shareholders will generally be subject to federal (and state or local, if applicable) income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. The Fund may also make a distribution of undistributed net income or capital gains prior to the Liquidation Date.
If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account, your account may not be subject to tax withholdings if you take certain actions. For example, if you hold your shares in an individual retirement account (an “IRA”), you have 60 days from the date you receive your proceeds to reinvest or “roll over” your proceeds into another IRA to maintain their tax-

Sold INCM (not a bad income play). Leaped into RLTY. Gives me 3 equal weight CEFs in the equity / income sleeve, which is something I’d hoped to achieve, It’s a risky bet on rates falling and real estate turning up. Most of my other stuff is pretty conservative, so can play a bit here.

BIG swaths of the L.A. basin are going to have to be rebuilt, like N.O. after Katrina. Domestic Marshall Plan will be required. But federal budget is stretched already so far, you can feel it in the 51st State. (LOL.)

”U.S. stocks roared to another blockbuster showing in 2024. Few expect such a torrid advance in the year to come. The S&P 500 climbed 23%, notching 57 record closes as the economy remained healthy, inflation ticked lower and an Al-fueled rally in big tech stocks powered on. Even with a stumble in the last few trading days, the broad U.S. stock index wrapped up its best consecutive years since 1997 and 1998, according to Dow Jones Market Data, during the lead-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble.
“The rally has created millionaires and turned professional investors increasingly bullish: In December, the Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey found record enthusiasm for U.S. stocks, as measured by the net share of respondents favoring the group. The payoffs haven't been limited to the equity market: Gold had its best year since 2010, while bitcoin more than doubled, vaulting above $100,000 for the first time ….”
(Excerpted from today’s online Wall Street Journal 1/9/2025 / All I can say is Whoopie!)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836906/000168386325000122/f40414d1.htm
From Vanguard:
https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/who-we-are/pressroom/press-release-vanguard-expands-fixed-income-lineup-with-new-actively-managed-bond-etf-011025.html

I've gratuitously managed the ports of a lot of friends and relatives over the past ~40 years. I do it because they need the help and I can provide it. My goal is usually, depending on their age and my relationship to them, to educate them on the basics and someday have them feel confident enough to do it themselves.
But I don't do it for everyone who asks me for help. I am very selective in choosing whose port I'll manage. And I vary the scope of my work based on a bunch of factors too varied to detail here.
It definitely ain't all thankless and never have I gotten myself into an arrangement that came back to bite me. And regularly the friends and relatives throw things my way despite my insistence that they don't need to give me anything.
We've received some pretty incredible "Thank Yous'' that have taken us to places and events that we may have never been. And we've eaten a lot of great food at restaurants that we'd have never otherwise seen the insides of! And the home cooked meals are many times to die for!
The most financially rewarding situation (despite me not being in it for that) came after a very wealthy relative was told by a national tax service that she owed a combined ~$60K in FIT/SIT in a year she sold her home. Well, one relative smelled something amiss, and word quickly got out in the family that I should take a look at that before the relative signs the return and has it filed by the firm.
Yeah, huge error by the firm in their calculation of adjusted basis of the property. Relative actually only owed ~$5K, not ~$60K, in combined FIT/SIT. I worked with the national firm who admitted their mistake and they correctly filed the respective returns based on my corrections. The relative was beyond elated and thought (despite my urging to the contrary) that I should get a healthy chunk of the savings of would be taxes. I tried to stop her but could only contain her gratitude! (I was asked if I would be upset if she sent me a check for $X. I responded that I don't upset easily!)
Far beyond all that though has been the incredible boost this part of my relationships has added to our overall relationships. It works that way because I establish a framework that I will only work within and there are clearly expressed ground rules. At the first notion of problems, the portfolio mgmt part of our relationship is terminated. In all the years of doing this, that only happened once. It was no big deal and there were no ill effects to our overall relationship.
The other incredible by product of doing this is what I learn about risk, specific investments and varying investment strategies that I would have otherwise not likely learned had I not engaged in these activities. Over the years I found three funds that I might not have otherwise found via reviews of 401k and 403b options. I invested in all three and two of them have been cornerstone funds of ours for a long time now.
Yeah, I agree. Doing this ain't for everybody and many that do will suffer consequences that they could have avoided by just staying out of these relationships. But I'd caution taking advice from posters on internet forums who have never once engaged in this, or maybe had a bad experience, or heard about a cousin of a friend's uncle who did.

My parents have an advisor who is about to retire. he said he'll take care of them for as long as he's alive (my father is clergy and helped him through some losses) so thats nice but he's 5 years older than my parents!
I know what they are invested in and nothing is too out of bounds. I'd do it differently in all likelihood but nonetheless I don't want the hassle.
My dad wants me involved in all the meetings which is fine. I assume advisors roll their eyes at the idea of a novice stickign their nose in.
That said, I know one of the guys at his firm and he knows I know my stuff and has tried to get me to turn to a life of financial advice (blech) so its fine.
He asked me one day if I had any ideas I'd like to discuss. I was like I know you agreed to handle this for my parents and I appreciate that, but would it be better to move these 8 funds into a singular balanced fund that spits out a distribution that they can w/d or not w/d for their expenses? It seems like it woudl be easier for everyone involved. He's like thats a great idea but I'm not dead yet lets look at that later on.
I manage my fathers stock account (largely vtsax and john deere) that we use for charitable giving.