The Week in Charts (10/24/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing...
00:00 Intro
00:17 Topics
01:02 Playing With Fire
06:55 The Longest Shutdown in History?
08:18 Inflation Hits a 16-Month High
13:33 Paving the Way for a Return to QE
16:37 Hello $38 Trillion
20:18 A Pause in the Gold Rush
22:28 Wall Street's Firing on All Cylinders
23:28 A Buyer's Market in Texas and Florida
25:12 Walmart's Winning Formula
Video
Blog

Good friend of mine has travelled to all 50 states since retiring 5 years ago. He started in a Transit van that he converted to an RV himself. Then bought a dedicated RV (used) and updated it. They are on the road 6 months out of the year.

Thanks, @hank.
Ya, everyone's situation is different, of course. I appreciate the details you offered. I'm still barely over half in equities. S-l-o-w-l-y growing my foreign stake. Lotsa faith in Giroux. PRWCX and PRCFX are 54.33% of my portfolio. Wait, that can't be right. I'm looking at Morningstar. Figures.

S&P closed 1379 on Jan 1 2008. It was mid-2012 before it hit that number again. More than 4 years. Correct me, if I have the numbers wrong.
Continued investments help a lot. I did same. No selling at all, I increased my buying. But, we shouldn't ignore that was a lot of lost time for many portfolios. I agree that the Great Depression is not equivalent to the GFC. In fact, that is my point. We could have something in the middle and it could still be very bad. I think that a solid portfolio hit to retirees could put a huge crimp in consumer spending. A lot of hunkering down.
Imagine a 5-10 year period where retiree portfolios initially drop 25% and then remain stagnant. That could certainly take the air out of consumer sentiment. I am prepared for such an event, but doubtful that many are.

It may be a long time before we see inflation at 3% again.
Y/Y trend:
April: 2.3%
May: 2.4%
June: 2.7%
July: 2.7%
Aug: 2.9%
Sept: 3.0%
Source: BLS CPI-U database https://data.bls.gov/toppicks?survey=cu

This is a good point. The trend is quite clear. With taxes on $3.4 trillion in imports, at rates as high as 50%, inflation is sure to follow. It is a direct and obvious relationship.
Companies are holding back and will dole out more price increases over time.

”But, the GFC was pretty darn bad. How many years before markets got back to previous highs? 4-6 years, maybe.”
I was young and foolish in ‘07-‘09 / Threw money at it. First gradually and later all at once. By early ‘09 I’d moved 80 or 90% to international stocks which got hit hardest.
From my records:
2008 - 21.9% (neg)
2009 + 28.86% (pos)
2010 +9.39% (pos)
Not everyone was in a position to do as I did. If you sold near bottom you were screwed. And the GFC was much shorter than the Great Depression. I’m not inclined to compare the two.
To answer @DrVenture’s question. My AI chat says,
”The S&P 500 took approximately six years to recover to its previous high following the Global Financial Crisis. The index bottomed in March 2009 and did not surpass its prior peak until March 2013, a period of about 65 months. This recovery timeline is consistent with other sources indicating it took around six years for the S&P 500 to regain its previous all-time high after the 2007–2008 crash.“
Article for thought - What Is the Difference Between a Recession and a Depression?

From the latest Barron’s:
Article - ”Stocks Could Climb Through 2026, According to Our Latest Survey of Money Managers”
... Watch Bloomberg and you might conclude, depending on the particular day. it’s either raining cats & dogs or the sun is out and will continue to shine forever. Little real analysis.

Even with "real analysis", you would get multiple conflicting views. And the usual share of manipulation and planted stories.

Yep - So many “talking their book” it’s hard to know. I may stop the BB subscription when it runs out in 6 months. ISTM the on-air programming is about 40% commercials anyway. I would like to really know what the odds of another 1929 being near are. 10%? / 50%?
And how the hell would this nation even survive such were it to come?

I think anything published by Zero Hedge needs to be fact checked.

It is not hard to believe that someone fears that Cuban runs as a Democrat in 2028, so they are seeking to begin the mud slinging early. "Tyler Durdan" is a character from the movie Fight Club. Great way to advance an agenda.
I am not a fan of predatory lending. Still, how is this different from letting people run up credit card debt at the maximum (24%)? Something that every single financial entity in America has their hooks into. What is the solution here? Government enforced lending standards? IDK
I remember quite clearly that in the 1-2 years before both the Dotcom events and the GFC, many people were raising red flags. The common refrain was, "they have been saying this for months". I watched people buy more and more, at the top. Certain it would go up forever. It took well over a year for both these things to blow up in everyone's face. And it impacted even those who were not heavily in stocks. Jobs lost, homes lost, bad times all around.

New car prices topped $50K average for the first time. Ignore that every single automaker warned that tariffs would push prices higher.
Remember that at 2% inflation it takes 5 years to lose 10% of purchasing power, still a problem for those on fixed income. But at 3% inflation, the same 10% purchasing loss occurs in around 3 years. A significant difference.
And with rates coming down, it could end up even worse. And this impact will be on top of Covid era inflation.

Bought a towel hook for in the shower. $4.60 in Feb 2025 and 8 months later (now) $5.60. What inflation?

Yeah but, someone else did something too. So, it doesn't count! LOL
Wait until companies stop absorbing it and push prices even higher.
Keep those examples coming!

OP "The REAL Economy: 'Empty shelves, higher prices’- Americans tell cost of Trump’s tariffs"
Here’s my experience:
Over the past several weeks, I’ve been shopping at Walmart and Aldi every week — and I haven’t seen any issues. I also visited Kroger, Publix, and Trader Joe’s, and noticed the same.
I’ve been to Home Depot and Lowe’s as well, with similar results. Our old range lasted 25 years, and when it finally broke, we had a new one delivered within two days.
I stopped by Target once — no problems there either.
I even helped a friend buy a Toyota, and we found plenty of inventory.
The only place I saw empty shelves was at a dollar store — and yes, they were mostly cheap Chinese items.
Keep trying to spin and scare the kids—anything to bring the current admin down.
Since 01/2025
Shiller house price are down 1%
New auto prices are up about 0.5%.
Oil, a major component of many items, is down about 25%
===============
Healthcare in America will never be cheap. It’s a massive for-profit industry for many providers, while politicians are heavily influenced by special interests.
The so-called Affordable Care Act — or as I call it, the Unaffordable Care Act (UCA) — made coverage far more expensive for those who buy directly through the marketplace.
Before the ACA, I could find solid insurance for around $400 a month with a $3,000 deductible for both of us. Two years later, both numbers had doubled — that’s one of the reasons I worked an extra year.
Fortunately, I was able to transition to Medicare over three years ago. This year, my wife paid $1,200 per month with an $8,000 deductible under the UCA until she became eligible for Medicare.
Our excellent Medicare Advantage plan used to have zero premiums for years, but it’s increasing to $27 next year. Still, we can see any doctor or hospital in the U.S. for the same price, with specialist visits at just $20.
It also includes dental coverage (up to $4,000, with no deductible), free gym access, and more.

good pbs segemnt.
step 1. remove objective staffers
step 2. promote a better process somehow with fewer resources (to control)
step 3. indefinite pause of data release
step 4. show result of shiny new models
step 5. crash currency and economy
america is drifting between step 2 and 3...but 3 more years leaves plenty of time.

The irony continues. After years of panic-inducing narratives from unhinged Democrats, inflation is finally under control. Yet these same Democrats once denied the highest inflation in four decades during the Biden years—and now they’re attempting to spin the truth all over again.

Inflation is finally under control? The monthly premium on yours and mine - Humana Gold Choice H8145-069 (PFFS) Medicare Advantage plan is increasing from $0 to $27 for 2026. That’s an increase so steep you can’t even calculate the percentage!
I gather you will need to pick up a job. With your great hindsight, how about running a few funds for a big mutual fund company? If that does not meet your fancy, trade up to some faster Yugo’s.

Thanks for the dose of reality. What have you got on the shrinkflation of Three Musketeers Bars and the disappearance of 50 cent burgers at local lunch counters? :-).
1964 to 1974 isn't much time to a kid looking back from my vantage point I guess.
The first thing that happened was the local Ben Franklin that sold them went of business. I just remember them becoming very hard to find anywhere. This was shortly after the time Franklins, Kennedy's, Mercurys, Roosevelt's and any other silver coins disappeared, along with silver certificates.
Inflation scares the hell out of me.

Memories fade. Perhaps the 25¢ comic books you are thinking about were the 80 page Giants, containing mostly reprints.
Prices for regular editions, by year and publisher:

and the widely estimated +3.1% wasn't that bad.

That's the attitude I remember from the mid 60's when comic books went from 12 cents to 25 cents in no time at all.

I think BLS said that data collection stopped with DC shutdown on 10/1/25. BLS only recalled CPI data analysts who used the data on hand as of 10/1/25. These data analysts didn't try to complete any surveys in progress or collected any new data. IMO, the analyst team could have just stayed home and the widely estimated +3.1% wasn't that bad.

Do you believe the numbers?
No I don't, not the numbers in the Wolf Street piece. From that writing:

Overall CPI rose by 0.31% (+3.8% annualized) in September from August. So not a benign inflation reading, but the second worst since January.

The eight M/M CPI changes since January, in descending order since January are:
0.444% (Feb), 0.341% (June), 0.311% (April), 0.287% (Aug), 0.254% (Sept), 0.225% (Mar), 0.209% (May), 0.151% (July).
As it turns out, 0.310% is the M/M seasonally adjusted increase for Sept. But the writer does his best at directing you away from adjustments. A commenter says that BLS didn't release seasonally adjusted figures; the writer posts a response but doesn't correct this part of the comment. Perhaps ironically, the only M/M figures in the BLS press release are those that are seasonally adjusted.
BLS press release
My figures are calculated from monthly seasonally adjusted and unadjusted CPI values as posted by the BLS.
As far as OER is concerned, it looks like the writer was confused about what it represents. He wrote:

OER is a stand-in for the costs of homeownership. OER indirectly reflects the expenses of homeownership such as homeowners’ insurance, HOA fees, property taxes, and maintenance. It’s the only measure for those expenses in the CPI. It is based on what a large group of homeowners estimates their home would rent for, with the assumption that homeowners would try to recoup their cost increases by raising the rent.

Suppose a homeowner, renting out their home, is netting $100/mo in profits (i.e. rent minus expenses), e.g. $2100 rent - $2000 expenses. Then if expenses go up 10%, the owner will only raise the rent enough to maintain that $100 profit. The owner will charge $2300 in rent (with $2200 in expenses). That is, the owner will increase the rent by $200, or by just 9% (of $2100), even though inflation is running at 10%. No wonder the writer thinks the OER is rigged. He's got the definition wrong.
OER is, as he wrote "based on what ... [a] home would rent for". That's what the market will bear. If an owner's costs go up, they might eat some of those costs (as sellers are currently doing with tariffs), they might just try to recoup those costs (as the writer claimed), or they might try to pad their profits (if housing is in short supply and renters are expecting large hikes in rent). Whatever the rent increase is, it is only loosely coupled to costs (expenses).
See Ken Perry's comment in the cited piece.
Side note: my home is assessed for property taxes according to OER, not comparable sales. So this is of more than academic interest to me. While the method used to calculate my OER is different from the BLS's (my municipality looks at rents in comparable buildings), and the city calculates a figure per building, not an aggregate for the region, the idea is similar.

The irony continues. After years of panic-inducing narratives from unhinged Democrats, inflation is finally under control. Yet these same Democrats once denied the highest inflation in four decades during the Biden years—and now they’re attempting to spin the truth all over again.

One-track mind. No, it's not just Dems who can see the higher prices. I'm no Dem, nor a Rep. The Orange Moron took office and soon instituted tariffs which upended any kind of trade normalcy. He claims lots of money coming into the Treasury. Who's paying it, in the end? The U.S. consumer. Businesses will eat the cost of the tariffs for only so long. Then it falls on everyone who needs to buy anything, literally.
I do believe Joe was too free in throwing around covid-era money, to rescue the economy. It resulted in big-time inflation, which Yellen, Powell and the others claimed for too long, was "transitory." They got it wrong. I see no one here denying that. Go fight your own straw man where we're not bothered by it.
Jump right in to 1:50 of this clip, if you care to taste a bit of Reality. And I never thought I'd be agreeing with Ronny Ray-guns about anything, but there it is:

Bought a towel hook for in the shower. $4.60 in Feb 2025 and 8 months later (now) $5.60. What inflation?