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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    I am little concerned w USA jobs market/ data Feds plans, recessions, uncontrolled inflation....
    I am more concerned w other parts of world - EU USSR and especially CHINA economy -housing bubble [??Lehman brothers 2.0) -c19 frequent recurrent Locks Downs -recession surely pull all of us down/sink whole global economy
    If that the case sp500 head toward 2900 Triple dip [april 2020, early 2022, and late 2022-2023)
    Sp500 severe resistance near below 3900 if breaks ...waterfall
  • Bumped into this website: charts, ratings, numbers
    Lots friends I know use trading views very good for research but medium w costs
    Schwab has good information about companies stocks good research chart ok
    Yahoo finance /finviz good w lots free
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Webull one of best around may have lots information w chart -w Mcad /many indicators 50ma 200ma etc... lots technical analysis if you like it. Colors beautiful w webull (imho probably better one)
    Please try webull...think 25k for free trades and chart minimal fees
    Stockcharts also good but 50 bucks per month
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    @bee, I modified your PV run also for initial 4% ($4K/yr) level, initial 4% ($4K/yr) inflation-adjusted:
    Strategy, Ending balance, Notes
    4%, $218.731K, Withdrawal amounts variable; details by @bee
    4K level, $251.433K, More like an annuity
    4K infl-adj, $231.433K, Infl-adj annuity is rare commercially
    MFO doesn't preserve spacing.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Using Mutual Funds for Retirement Income
    I have posed this question to myself... could a fund... or funds serve as a funding source for inflation adjusted retirement income?
    Withdrawal Scenario:
    If a retiree started taking a 4% safe withdrawal rate from a $100,000 investment in PRWCX, how would this fund and the income withdrawn over time fare (3, 5,10, and 15 year) later? Portfolio Visualizer can't predict future returns, but it does allow a user to look back over stressful and successful market conditions.
    To stress test this scenario using PV, I add a market hurdle where by the retiree starts withdrawing from retirement savings at the end 2006. They buy $100,000 worth of PRWCX (or a portfolio of these types of funds) and began taking a 4% yearly withdrawal each year, from 2007 going forward ( 15 year time frame). Over the first two years of retirement, the "annuity portfolio" experienced a 41% loss in value as well as absorbed the required 4% income withdrawals (4% annuity payment). That's stressful.
    Questions:
    Over those first two years of retirement (2007 - 2009), the $100,000 portfolio (stand alone portfolio of just PRWCX) would have dropped to $63,000. Could a retiree hang in there through these first two years? The retiree's withdrawal rate of 4% may have started at $4,000 (4% of $100K), but as the portfolio dropped in value, their next year's withdrawal dwindle to a little less than $3,000 (4% of $63,00) in 2008. Having a cash/ ST bond component to this portfolio might provide a buffer...especially at the start of retirement.
    We have had an investment environment over the last 15 years that has included both monetary stimulus (QE and lowering interest rates) and market shocks (GFC, Covid, Supply disruptions and the rise interest rates). ISTM that a collection of well managed allocation funds could help individual investors balance the risks of the day with the rewards of the day.
    PRWCX seems successful at this. VWINX and VWELX are two others that I run retirement withdrawal scenarios with. Do you have a favorite? Maybe a collection of these would be a better approach. It would help reduce manager risk and might diversify manager strategies.
    Here's a link to Portfolio Visualizer where you could run some of your own scenarios:
    PRWCX as an Annuity
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    With extremely low unemployment and still many unfilled jobs looking for applicants, it seems that inflation may remain at a fairly high level for longer than many expect. Hence, the Fed may have to be quite aggressive in its tightening process over the next couple of years to achieve its stated goals. The markets could experience some tough times down the road.
    As David Rosenberg suggests: "Play the long game by being patient, being nimble, since intermittent rallies will come and go, and focusing mostly on capital preservation." This, it seems to me, is particularly good advice for retirees.
    Along those lines, two funds that I have been following performed quite well in yesterday's market crash. PGAGX gained 0.47%, and has a YTD gain of 8.44%. FARIX lost only 0.32%, but has a YTD gain of 5.22%.
    Good luck,
    Fred
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    Short Term traders - bad sentiments, bearish, doom gloom/ shorts sales make sense
    Long term 2-5 yrs -maybe good time to add positions/buy more and you maybe laughing your ways to the bank 5 yrs from today if we do have market recovery/ bullish scenario
    Still waiting but i did buy more last 8 wks...
    Hang tight very volatile next few weeks -months, maybe another 7 10% leg down testing June's lows ( many gaps unfulfilled)
  • Vanguard Funds Vs Vanguard Index Funds
    Taking a wild guess : yes the return on a single dollar will be more on a low fee passive fund than on a active fund. But if the active fund nets 10% return in a year that its passive near-equivalent nets 5%, you're gonna make more money with the investment in the active fund. Am I missing something?
  • China’s Record Drought: What effect on world trade and environment?
    Barron's cover story this week is on global water crisis. The US has its own water crisis in Colorado River areas - Lake Mead and Lake Powell are below 30% capacity. Agriculture, semi chips and other production along the River path are affected.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/water-shortage-drought-investing-51661467637?mod=hp_HERO
  • Please, what's the difference?
    China has been notorious about not allowing PCAOB access to Chinese audit work and has not followed through with past agreements re such access. There is no guarantee it is going to stick this time. I hope all the PCAOB staff visiting China are on diplomatic visas. PCAOB currently reviews / audits 50 foreign countries’ companies audit work and did not have to deal with this type of B.S. China looks at every routine process / matter as an opportunity to gain leverage. I do not think China has changed its stripes. I place most of the blame at the feet of our investment bankers for putting US investors in this precarious situation. Our politicians are next to be blamed before we turn our ire on China who is exploiting our politicians’ disinterest in governing and protecting US investors.
  • WSJ: Pension Funds Are Selling Their Office Buildings
    Thanks, @old_joe. Re converting office space into residential property, here is one video from CNBC -
    Other YouTube videos and articles on this topic turned up on google search.
    I am still struggling to find out which financial assets can do OK in the new world order, assuming the post-Covid world order is different from pre-Covid world order (i.e., increase in structural inflation)?
    For lack of better ideas, I bought some PRWCX and SPY today at market close. I disclose this only because in the past few weeks I mentioned in this forum on Aug 12 that I sold some equities (I also sold more equities the following Monday, Aug 15). So, today's buy is just trying to get back to previous equity allocation %age. I am under-weight equities relative to PRWCX, based on Giroux's note to shareholders.
  • Powell's Jackson Hole Speech
    Excerpts from Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech are below.
    The S&P 500 declined 3.37% while the Nasdaq declined 3.94% today.
    "The labor market is particularly strong, but it is clearly out of balance, with demand for workers substantially exceeding the supply of available workers. Inflation is running well above 2 percent, and high inflation has continued to spread through the economy. While the lower inflation readings for July are welcome, a single month's improvement falls far short of what the Committee will need to see before we are confident that inflation is moving down."
    "Restoring price stability will likely require maintaining a restrictive policy stance for some time. The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. Committee participants' most recent individual projections from the June SEP showed the median federal funds rate running slightly below 4 percent through the end of 2023."
    "Our responsibility to deliver price stability is unconditional. It is true that the current high inflation is a global phenomenon, and that many economies around the world face inflation as high or higher than seen here in the United States. It is also true, in my view, that the current high inflation in the United States is the product of strong demand and constrained supply, and that the Fed's tools work principally on aggregate demand. None of this diminishes the Federal Reserve's responsibility to carry out our assigned task of achieving price stability."
    Full speech
  • China’s Record Drought: What effect on world trade and environment?
    I've not seen extensive detailed coverage of this situation, but it seems evident that in addition to being a major disaster within China it will also affect world supply-chain commerce. Moreover, it does not bode well for China's efforts to help reduce climate-change emissions.
    Following are excerpts from a lengthy report in the New York Times, heavily edited for brevity:
    HONG KONG — Car assembly plants and electronics factories in southwestern China have closed for lack of power. Owners of electric cars are waiting overnight at charging stations to recharge their vehicles. Rivers are so low there that ships can no longer carry supplies.
    A record-setting drought and an 11-week heat wave are causing broad disruption in a region that depends on dams for more than three-quarters of its electricity generation. The factory shutdowns and logistical delays are hindering China’s efforts to revive its economy. The extreme heat is adding to frustration by snarling power supplies, threatening crops and setting off wildfires. Reduced electricity from hydroelectric dams has prompted China to burn more coal, a large contributor to air pollution and to greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. Many cities have been forced to impose rolling blackouts or limit energy use.
    The heat wave has scorched China for more than two months, stretching from Sichuan in the southwest to the country’s eastern coast and sending the mercury above 104 degrees on many days. In Chongqing, a sprawling metropolis in the southwest with around 20 million people, the temperature soared to 113 degrees last week, the first time such a high reading had been recorded in a Chinese city outside the western desert region of Xinjiang.
    The drought has dried up dozens of rivers and reservoirs in the region and cut Sichuan’s hydropower generation capacity by half, hurting industrial production. Volkswagen closed its 6,000-employee factory in Chengdu for the past week and a half, and Toyota temporarily suspended operations at its assembly plant. Foxconn, the giant Taiwanese electronics manufacturer, and CATL, the world’s largest maker of electric car batteries, have both curtailed production at factories in the vicinity.
    In Ezhou, a city in central China near Wuhan, the Yangtze River is now at its lowest level for this time of year since record-keeping began there in 1865. The falling water levels in major rivers that serve the region’s main transport hubs have also led to delays elsewhere in the supply chain. The Yangtze River has receded so much that many oceangoing ships can no longer reach upstream ports. That is forcing China to divert large numbers of trucks to carry their cargo. A single ship can require 500 or more trucks to move its cargo.
    The extreme weather sweeping across China also has potential implications for the world’s efforts to halt climate change. Beijing has sought to offset at least part of the lost hydropower from the drought by ramping up the use of coal-fired power plants. China’s domestic mining of coal has been at or near record levels, and customs data shows that its imports of coal from Russia reached a new high last month.
  • Please, what's the difference?
    Interesting news TODAY, https://www.barrons.com/articles/sec-beijing-audit-china-companies-51661519976?mod=bol-social-tw
    ".....U.S. and China signed a Statement of Protocol, the Securities and Exchange Commission said on Friday, a first step toward allowing American officials to review audit documents of Chinese businesses.
    As part of the agreement, inspectors from the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board will be able to investigate the audit paperwork of U.S.-listed Chinese and Hong Kong companies. The officials hadn’t been willing to travel to China and Hong Kong unless such an agreement was in place for such a framework.
    The “inspectors must be on the ground by mid-September if their work has any chance to be successfully completed by the end of this year, ” said SEC Chair Gary Gensler....."
  • OIL
    Oil may hovering near 75-100s next few months because of still high inflation and volatility,
    Maybe good to place iron-condor -
  • WSJ: Pension Funds Are Selling Their Office Buildings
    If the trends mentioned here are the beginning of a long-term trend (i.e., symptoms of remote work, de-globalization, just in case inventory systems, etc.) could labor become more premium (i.e., wages as a source of inflation) than what we witnessed in the past decade(s)? Are we in a structural shift to higher inflation, leading to a change in Fed's target inflation rate from 2 to 3-4%? (Is realistic for the Fed to want to stick to the notion that a neutral fed funds rate is 2-2.5%?) I am trying not to become the blissful frog in the boiling water, especially when my income is entirely from capital and zero from labor.
    Add to the above, recent lower productivity readings.
    Which financial assets can do OK in the new world order, assuming the post-Covid world order is different from pre-Covid world order?
    Excess office spaces can be converted into housing which can put downward pressure on housing prices. It was in the news today that Blackstone will halt buying homes in 38 cities / markets.
  • PRWCX Semi Annual Report Dated 6/30/22
    Here's the link for the 6/30/22 semi annual report for TRP Capital Appreciation Fund, PRWCX/TRAIX. As usual a very good read.
    https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=semi&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77954M105
  • The bottom are likely in
    @Crash
    "I believe David Giroux invests in this BL fund for his bond allocation."
    Per PRWCX/TRAIX Semi Annual Report dated 6/30/22.
    1.6% of fund assets held in TRP Floating Rate Fund, Institutional share class.
    13.3% of assets held directly in bank loans.
    6.9% of assets held in corporate bonds.
    8.1% of assets held in U.S. Treasury Notes
    Here's the link for the 6/30/22 semi annual report that just hit my inbox. As always, a good read.
    https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=semi&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77954M105
  • WSJ: Pension Funds Are Selling Their Office Buildings
    TIAA T-REA/QREARX has been slowly changing its property mix. So, the offices are down to 29.6% of properties on 6/30/22 (from 36.6% on 6/30/21) and retail down to 12.3% (vs 16.9%). New purchases have been in apartments, medical offices, storage, industrial facilities, land. Following are periodic reports elsewhere for those interested,
    Advance Fact Sheets (sample) https://community.morningstar.com/s/question/0D53o00006AWMRuCAP/trea-fact-sheet-63022
    Quarterly 10-Qs (history since mid-2021) https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/733/thread