Fund Allocations (Cumulative), 9/30/25
Small shift into stock funds. The changes for OEFs + ETFs were based on a total AUM of about $42.33 trillion in the previous month, so +/- 1% change was about +/- $423.3 billion. Also note that these changes were from both fund inflows/outflows & price changes. #ICI #Funds #OEFs #ETFs
OEFs & ETFs: Stocks 61.72%, Hybrids 4.09%, Bonds 17.33%, M-Mkt 16.86%
(New high for stock % since 10/2024)
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2279/thread

"I have always been regretting that I was not as wise as the day I was born" - Henry David Thoreau
Well, yesterday a stock I’d bought only the day before, CZR (less than 2% portfolio weight), began tumbling before the open. I sold it at a 9.5% loss mid-day. It finally closed down more than 15% for the day. It was one of Gabelli’s picks in the Barron’s Roundtable. Takes two to screw something up that bad!
Today I remodeled the portfolio going from 3 baskets down to 2 / from 24 basket holdings to 20. (Each basket now amounts to 15.5% portfolio). I lifted the neutral cash position from 14.5% up to 22.5%. Added a bit to stalwarts LPXAX, CPLSX and RAPAX. Still well ahead YTD. The CEF basket has done nicely since started in March.
The goal lately has been to try to grow the portfolio without getting crushed when the high flyers come tumbling down. I think there’s probably more value in small and mid caps, but you need to be taking a sedative to buy and hang on! Honestly, most of us small players are no match for the pros, big hedge funds, short sellers, frequent traders, AI run algorithms and penny-sucking platforms that control the daily flow and squeeze money out of it.

From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
On this day in 1989, Mitsubishi Estate agreed to pay $846 million for 51% of Rockefeller Center
in New York City, setting off hysteria among U.S. pundits, who claimed that America’s patrimony
was being scooped up by the Japanese.

@WABAC
Ok, I don't know how my response to @JD_co 's funny and identifiable comment veered into a DCA discussion, but I appreciate it. My tax-deferred account does as you mention, but I make two Tech/SP500/International investments per year in my taxable account. I do my best to time it, but rarely do I find a true valley that is primed to climb. Cheers! So far, so good.

Thanks. Sounds like you got your bases covered both ways.
I'm typically more of a dumper than a dribbler, but I did dribble into some US and foreign equity funds in the IRA a week ago or so.
I dumped into foreign in the taxable the other day.

@WABAC
Ok, I don't know how my response to @JD_co 's funny and identifiable comment veered into a DCA discussion, but I appreciate it. My tax-deferred account does as you mention, but I make two Tech/SP500/International investments per year in my taxable account. I do my best to time it, but rarely do I find a true valley that is primed to climb. Cheers! So far, so good.

SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 10/29/25
AAII Bull-Bear Spread +7.1% (above average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 42 (fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 42.69% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 41.80% (negative)
These are contrarian indicators.
INVESTOR CONCERNS: Budget (DC shutdown, 10/1/25- ), debt, tariffs, inflation, jobs, Fed, dollar, recession, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (191+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+27 weeks; fragile peace).
For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up.
Fed fund rate cut -25 bps to 3.75-4.00%, bank reserves 3.90%, discount rate 4.00%. Beyond Dec 1, QTs for Treasuries & MBS will stop. This shutdown may soon be the longest. About 1-yr trade truce with China after Trump-Xi meeting.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2278/thread

Are you dollar cost averaging? If your broker won't accommodate that for you, you need another broker.

I don't follow. Drop = Invest. $10K invested in Tech in 2022 has gone a lot further than $10K invested in 2021. Don't plan to sell anything for at least 10 more years. Had a broker for 5 years, learned from him, then discarded him and his bias, and now do it myself.

Dollar cost averaging means you spread the allocated money out over a year, rather than dropping the bundle all at once. So divide your available funds by 12 months or 52 weeks.
Maybe that is already happening with an employee contribution program you are already involved in where the deductions are made whenever your paycheck is issued.
If you are dropping money all at once outside of an employee contribution plan, you might want to look into spreading the drop out over a year.
The theory is you're going to catch lows and highs. If you're confident in your own sense of market timing, and feel that the market is on an upward trajectory, then dropping the bundle when the cash is available might make the best sense for you.
Just shooting the breeze.

M* has often been reported as being slow to update.
My problem is that M* wouldn't present a Legacy view. Just a blank area where the portfolio is supposed to be. This time I waited about 5 minutes and the legacy portfolio finally showed up.

I use these memos as a source of advice and counsel and not as source of actionable items.
I feel that I am a more rounded investor for having read and learned from them.

FD1000 believes articles or stories must include information that is currently actionable in order to be valuable.
He will often judge writings which don't meet this standard to be merely clickbait.
There are some who may conclude that FD1000 is the antithesis of the "thinking man."

The only US investment over the last 30 days was to HTD, a hybrid CEF with a 55/45 blend of utility stocks with preferred shares as the fixed income component.

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months."

It seems to me that the FOMC is favoring the employment side of its dual mandate.
The PCE Price Index YoY has consistently exceeded 2% over the past twelve months.
PCE increases for June, July and August¹ were 2.59%, 2.60% and 2.74% respectively.
¹ latest release due to government shutdown

Post FOMC Presser Notes
Rates: Fed fund rate cut -25 bps to 3.75-4.00%, bank reserves rate at 3.90% (generous), discount rate at 4.00%. On December 1, the Treasury QT of -$5 billion/mo will drop to $0, & MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo to $0 but futures reinvestments will be in Treasuries (not MBS). Fed balance sheet has declined by -$2.2 trillion so far.
DC shutdown effects should be temporary. Lack of government data is a concern but for now, there are estimates from state and private data & surveys.
Tariffs effects should be one-time. They are in goods inflation, but not in services.
Inflation is sticky. Unknowable neutral rate may be between 3-4%. Financial conditions are restrictive despite huge capex seen in AI. Fed is more concerned about financial stability, not market levels.
Labor market has been soft. Announced layoffs by companies aren't showing in unemployment claims. Economy is bifurcated (like K) & there is more spending by higher income earners that by lower income earners.
Banking losses from low-rated debt are being monitored, but that isn't a broader issue.
December FOMC looks very cloudy.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2277/thread

Are you dollar cost averaging? If your broker won't accommodate that for you, you need another broker.

I don't follow. Drop = Invest. $10K invested in Tech in 2022 has gone a lot further than $10K invested in 2021. Don't plan to sell anything for at least 10 more years. Had a broker for 5 years, learned from him, then discarded him and his bias, and now do it myself.

Bought a few shares of a tech ETF today (toehold). So, you can be sure the top is near.

Lol. I feel your angst. Every year I drop about $10K in a Tech ETF/Fund, an S&P500 Index fund, and an International Large Growth fund. Wish I could time things better but overall it's been relatively positive.

Are you dollar cost averaging? If your broker won't accommodate that for you, you need another broker.

Bought a few shares of a tech ETF today (toehold). So, you can be sure the top is near.

Lol. I feel your angst. Every year I drop about $10K in a Tech ETF/Fund, an S&P500 Index fund, and an International Large Growth fund. Wish I could time things better but overall it's been relatively positive.

@DrVenture- I checked the tube operating voltages in my very dog-eared copy of the 1954 RCA Receiving Tube Manual. Had that since high school days. :)

From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
This day in 1929 became known as "Black Tuesday."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 30 points to 230.07, an 11.7% collapse.
At one point during the day the Dow was down 18.5%.

FOMC Statement, 10/29/25
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251029a.htm
Presser in 30 minutes

Howard Marks's last January memo called for a bubble. I posted the following months ago, and it's still true now. Mark's memos have lots of fluff and hardly anything about what to do.
10 months later the SP500 is up close to 20%.
I can play Marks, we are in a bubble, just to cover my axx, I don't have a clue when it will happen.

Well, the market seems to be giving the middle finger to the newly-morphed AKRE ETF. Hopefully, it's a temporary coincidence, but it's a losing bet so far as AKRE's top 5 holdings (CSU.TO, MA, BN.TO, KKR, & V), which represent almost 50% of its asset value, are having a rough go in this AI-infused market. What the heck is going on with Constellation Software??? AKRE management seems to be chasing their losses as they have invested almost 12% of their $$ into it (and are defending their decision with a letter to investors).