The fallout from the SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) collapse has finally put fear into the hearts of investors, and especially options traders, pushing up the VIX from the low 20s to a close of 26.14 on March 15, 2023. That took the VIX Index up above the prices of all of its futures contracts, which creates a unique oversold sentiment situation that is the subject of this week’s chart.

Might be worth a read:
weekly_chart/vix_index_above_all_of_its_futures

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312523073504/d406143d497.htm
Janus Investment Fund
Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund
Supplement dated March 17, 2023
to Currently Effective Prospectuses
and Statement of Additional Information
On March 16, 2023, the Board of Trustees of Janus Investment Fund approved reopening Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund (the “Fund”) to new investors, effective on or about April 17, 2023. Class L Shares of the Fund remain closed to new investors.
As a result, effective on or about April 17, 2023, all references to the Fund being closed to certain new investors are removed from the Prospectuses and Statement of Additional Information for Class A Shares, Class C Shares, Class D Shares, Class I Shares, Class N Shares, Class R Shares, Class S Shares, and Class T Shares.

Unless there are serious issues in the biggest banks ( ie top 100) I don't think this will rival 2008
In retrospect it seems that any idiot could have predicted what would happen when you sold mortgages to people with no income. Few of us, I assume, knew that was going on until the headlines. But people who should have known better still went ahead and loaded up on this junk. This was a solvency crisis as the investments were worthless.
This seems to be much more a liquidity crises, which the Fed can fix. However, it remains to be seen what that will do to inflation, given they have undone 50% of their QT so far. Does a recession become more likely?

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/17/big-changes-in-the-sp-500-friday-highlight-power-of-index-providers.html

Ever wonder why Walmart is classified as a consumer staples stock in the S&P 500, but similar retailers such as Target, Dollar General and Dollar Tree are classified as consumer discretionary stocks? A lot of other people have wondered as well.
Friday, that will change.

And . . .

Ever wonder why Visa, Mastercard and Paypal, which seem like they’re financials, are actually listed as Technology stocks instead?
Other people have wondered that as well.

What does it all mean?

Here’s something else it reflects: the people who decide what goes in these indexes have become very influential. They are not fund managers, they are index providers, but don’t let that fool you: in a world where people buy funds that are tied to indexes, the people who determine what go into those indexes have become very powerful indeed.

Probably not going to give The Big Short a run for its money.

Appreciate the input, all. I am indeed riding it out. Somehow, I wasn't so affected by the Crash of '08-'09. Back then, I was stashing money in my 403b, into EM bonds. They did well in the aftermath. No more EM, now. @LewisBraham: 68, retired, wife works full-time. I'm just laying back in the tall cotton. 5 cash, 58 stocks, 33 bonds. Adding every month to PRTXX: Treasuries and repurchase agreements. A MM fund with TRP. (Sweep account.) Instant access, 4.31% yield, currently. Better than always running over to the Windward side, where our Credit Unions are. I do that often enough, already.
Surely, Jamie Dimon and the others that went to the aid of First Republic will want something in return. I believe we will see consolidations. CS is still in the toilet. No confidence in that bank's survival. Unless it becomes a zombie-front for the Swiss National Bank, which promised to prop it up.
And the Fed's discount window has already dispensed a record amount in a very short time. Are banks just looking for cheap loans at 3%???
Happy St. Patrick's Day. I'll join the local alumni chapter watching a double-header: Gonzaga men and women, both on tv. GU women vs. Ole Miss. Men vs. Grand Canyon Univ. No corned beef. Tacos, instead. Futures up, slightly.

Honestly, a roller coaster ride like I can't remember, ever before.
I only began investing in 2003. So maybe a bunch of you are more well versed in it all.

I recall that the Global Financial Crisis of 2007/2008 was much worse.
It felt (to me anyway) that the entire financial system might collapse.
Many financial institutions became bankrupt (notably Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutual).
GM and Chrysler also faced bankruptcy and were bailed out after cash
was diverted from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).
The S&P 500 had a weekly decline greater than 20% in October 2008.
I hope to never experience another financial crisis of this magnitude again in my lifetime.
Once is enough!

@Crash - Thought I’d mention that what rocked markets today was the announcement that J.P. Morgan had put together a “rescue package” (loan) for First Republic funded by a number of banks. I was surprised they didn’t wait and release the information until after market. But the news broke about an hour before close and helped propel stocks higher into the end.
From CNBC: “Stocks rose Thursday as Wall Street grew increasingly optimistic after a group of banks said it would aid First Republic Bank amid the industry's crisis.” CNBC Link

@Crash I'm not sure what more you could expect from Seafarer. The fund's beaten 91% of its emerging market fund peers in the past five years and 88% in the past ten with less volatility and downside risk. That's a strong record. It sounds like you have more of a problem with emerging market funds as a fund category than you have with Seafarer specifically. You can't expect Seafarer to behave like the S&P 500 or Treasury bonds if it isn't designed to do that.

Toyota is sticking with hybrids first, the EVs second. Some say it's foolish, others say that it works for Toyota.
Europeans are making good progress in the EVs; China too and it may be ahead in batteries. In the US, Tesla dominates.

If the "Fit for 55" CO2 emission targets are formally adopted, new cars sold in the EU
will need to reduce CO2 emissions by 55% (compared to 2021 levels) by 2030.
The 2035 "Fit for 55" CO2 emission reduction target for new cars and vans is 100% (zero-emission).
European auto manufacturers have a lot at stake...
Link

Well, since we don't know Crash's age and financial situation today as compared to the 2008 crash, we don't know if he can handle it. That was--hard to believe--15 years ago. It's a mistake to assume everyone should keep a stiff upper lip, keep calm and carry on during a difficult period. Circumstances and risk tolerances differ.
This is why, I should add, financial planners exist. A good one can assess your financial situation and risk tolerance and tell you, look your goals are X and you have this much cushion for losses, so you can afford to wait out this volatile market. Or, they can say, you're way overexposed to stocks, given your age and situation. You should dial back your exposure. I presume most people here are self-directed, though.

2008 09 credit housing crash, 2012 near double dip, 2015 -16 downturn/flat returns, 2000 crashes (decade 000 returns), 2020 Covid crashes also bad....
Just hold on to the ride
Drink lots wine/ weekend relaxation
Keep buying when ItS strikingly low.
You will be very happy 10 yrs from now if no WW3 and global warming won't kill us

Grandeur Peak's negligent behavior has been discussed many times before in this forum. Just repeatedly issuing mea culpa via fund manager commentary is not good enough. There is no change in Grandeur Peak's behavior. Fool me once shame on you and all that.
I have not looked at First Republic's asset mix but Silicon Valley Bank? Silicon Valley Bank has the highest percentage of long term securities in its assets of all the banks in the country. Every individual investor (incl those in this forum) has been worried about Duration risk for the past 10 years but not Silicon Valley Bank. Hopefully, we get to see someday the Duration risk (or the lack of) in the non-equity portion of its CEO's personal portfolio. Interestingly, even Signature bank ranked 45 places higher than Silicon Valley Bank for Duration risk ( Signature Bank allegedly was playing games with the info it was providing NY regulators, leading to its demise). But back to Grandeur Peak. There is no alleged material fraud in Silicon Valley Bank for a forensic accountant to unearth - its demise is from sheer incompetence (or moral hazard at worst) in plain sight. Incompetent (negligent) fund manager picking incompetent portfolio company management, that is all we have here.
Grandeur Peak US Stalwarts fund has 4.6% in First Republic and 2.3% in Silicon Valley Bank- as of Oct 31, per their website.
I am sorry for coming out strong on this fund company - I will go to temple and seek forgiveness. Every time we make excuses for active fund managers' repeated failings we are failing innocent investors who visit this forum. I will go back to holding my silence and not posting here.

@sma3, I learned a lot about the so-called state insurance then!
First, our money was tied up for 5-6 years, not months. Rates offered were below high m-mkt rates at the time. So, only opportunity lost, not nominal money.
I called our state insurance department and said that I wanted my money back. They said, not so fast. States' insurance departments were coordinating the rescue and I will just have to be patient. BUT, if I wanted my money right away, I could take the 40% haircut offer on the table. Well, I "decided" to be patient.
By now I have personal experiences with 1 bank failure and 2 insurance failures. Only the FDIC is prompt in setting quick up to the limit. No experience with the SIPC, but from the news, I think that they also take their time while brokerage positions held may be frozen.

@LewisBraham
When I read your comment, even before your link, I immediately thought of Olstein and his funds. I stumbled across him in 2004 and thought his approach made a lot of sense. Unfortunately I sold it several years later as since then it has generally outperformed the SP500 and value indices, although with larger draw downs.
Most people don't think about this type of analysis until after they needed it. But I can see why it is a hard pitch to make as he doesn't fit into a nice little box.

“I believe social media has magnified the bank panic.”
Both social and mainstream media have had a field day. “It sells in Peoria” (increases ratings).
There are no lines in front of banks. But there’s a lot of itchy fingers on keyboards moving money around. That modern day ability changes the instantaneity & speed of old fashioned “bank runs.”
I’d been using GNMA as a cash substitute. Sold all today. The 10 year was over 4% about 1 week ago. Dropped below 3.5% (around 3.4% at one point) this morning. Hard to say what’s coming down the pipe - but a guess is they’ll find a way to patch up the shaky banking system both here and in Europe - adding liquidity in one way or another - and that inflation will be well above 2% a year from now. Bonds might do well in that environment, but I wouldn’t bank on it. There’s probably good money to be made on some of the regional banks - but not for me.
To be clear - I still own a high-yield muni and a global bond fund.

I feel many fund companies including this one would benefit from having a CPA specializing in forensic accounting and detecting problematic balance sheets on staff. But very few fund companies have such employees, choosing the CFA or MBA manager/analyst route, and those folks mostly are just looking for growth, not fraud or balance sheet problems. It's a different skillset: https://barrons.com/articles/why-your-fund-manager-isnt-looking-for-fraud-51599250358

From M*: "For Grandeur Peak Global Stalwarts GGSYX, First Republic Bank was its largest holding as of Oct. 31, 2022, the most recently available portfolio data. The stock was 4.5% of the $210 million fund. The fund also held 1.9% In Silicon Valley Bank. Over the past five trading days the fund has fallen 9.5%." For a fund company describing its methodologies as "world class" they've made -- IMHO -- quite a few missteps over the recent past.

@catch22, MOVE is not only a blend but it is normalized, so it doesn't have a direct meaning as VIX.
But we can look at past values and ranges.
All-time high 264.60 (GFC, 2008), all-time low 36.62 (Covid, 2020).
Covid 2020 range 36.62-163.70.
Now 198.71 (3/15/23 EOD). So, well above its high during the credit-freeze of early-2020.

Bond volatility MOVE is now the highest since the GFC (2008-09). It is blend of Treasury volatilities of various maturities. Bond market has been whipsawed in the recent days by Powell's testimony last week (tough) and global banking crisis led by the US (not Europe) - 3 US bank failures in 4 days, needing a bank rescue plan (QE for banking? May be, QL - quantitative-lending?).
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^MOVE?p=^MOVE

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/809593/000113322823001332/abatrcf-html6116_497.htm
497 1 abatrcf-html6116_497.htm AMERICAN BEACON AHL TARGETRISK CORE FUND - 497
American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund
Supplement dated March 15, 2023
to the
Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated May 1, 2022
The Board of Trustees of American Beacon Funds has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate the American Beacon AHL TargetRisk Core Fund (the “Fund”) on or about July 7, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”), based on the recommendation of American Beacon Advisors, Inc., the Fund’s investment manager.
In anticipation of the liquidation, effective immediately, the Fund is closed to new shareholders. In addition, in anticipation of and in preparation for the liquidation of the Fund, AHL Partners LLP, the sub-advisor to the Fund, may need to increase the portion of the Fund's assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for the Fund’s expenses and to meet redemption requests. The Fund may no longer be pursuing its investment objective during this transition. On or about the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute cash pro rata to all remaining shareholders. These shareholder distributions may be taxable events. Thereafter, the Fund will terminate.
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