Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    "I limit the amount of my CDs to $50k to 100k."
    $25 to 50k here. But maturities from 4/23 out to 11/25.
  • Could First Republic’s collapse trigger a recession?
    I'm guessing that the next raise will be .25%, but likely not this week. That would be incredibly poor timing, with a deaf ear to the marketplace reality (warranted or not.)
  • Could First Republic’s collapse trigger a recession?
    I am not concerned about a recession, resulting from a couple of troubled banks. I will be interested in seeing how the Feds react to the recent bank issues, but I am still expecting them to raise rates slightly, likely no more than .25%
  • Warren Buffett talking to Biden administration on banking crisis
    Excerpt:
    The conversations come as Buffett has been a savior to the banking sector in the past. The chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.B) invested $5 billion in Bank of America (BAC) in 2011 as he tried to bolster the bank due to its losses tied to subprime mortgages. In 2008, Buffett came to the aid of Goldman Sachs (GS), investing $5 billion in the bank in the depths of the financial crisis.
    Regional banks may need the help of Buffett after several of the banks' stocks cratered this week, such as Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL), KeyCorp (KEY) Comerica (CMA) and Zions Bancorp (ZION), after the twin failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3948701-warren-buffett-talking-to-biden-administration-on-banking-crisis-report
    The original article is in Bloomberg but it is behind a paywall.
    No detail release yet. In BOA case, WB got their preferred stocks at his asking price and dividend yield. Both were aimed at lowering his investment risk knowing that there is a high probability the government will come to help. FED did shortly. Read somewhere he made many folds over his initial investment with little risk. We will see what Buffet will ask for this time. Despite his age, he is a great investor.
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    I continue to buy short term CDs--bought two, 9 mo CDs, at 5.2% each, a few days ago. I limit the amount of my CDs to $50k to 100k. All of my recent CD purchases are either 6 month, or 9 month CDs. I have four other CDs maturing this summer, and I expect to be purchasing additional CDs when those mature. Until I am convinced that the Feds are going to stop raising rates, I prefer the shorter CDs.
  • UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion
    "has agreed"... (as in "an offer that cannot be refused")
    Credit Suisse, the battered Swiss banking giant, has agreed to a takeover by Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS — a move aimed at staving off immediate concerns of a disorderly bankruptcy and stemming panic about global financial turmoil.
    UBS has agreed to buy Credit Suisse in an emergency deal that ties up two of Europe’s largest banks, Swiss authorities announced Sunday.
    Swiss authorities are planning to speed up the process by circumventing laws that would require a shareholder vote, the Financial Times reported earlier Sunday. The Financial Times also reported that the value of the all-share deal was more than $2 billion, but that figure was not officially confirmed by the Swiss authorities.
    A “swift and stabilizing solution was absolutely necessary,” Alain Berset, president of the Swiss Confederation, said in a Sunday afternoon news conference. The UBS deal, he said, was “the best solution for restoring the confidence that has been lacking in financial markets recently.”
    In a joint statement Sunday afternoon, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell said that they “welcome” the announcement.
    “The capital and liquidity positions of the U.S. banking system are strong, and the U.S. financial system is resilient,” Yellen and Powell wrote. “We have been in close contact with our international counterparts to support their implementation.”
    Credit Suisse and UBS did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
    The takeover caps more than a week of speculation over the Swiss giant’s fate amid growing fears of a global financial crisis, after two U.S. regional banks suddenly failed earlier this month. Although U.S. regulators have taken sweeping steps, including backstopping deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York, those measures have done little to assuage fears of a cascading banking crisis.
    Those concerns went global this week, after Credit Suisse warned of “material weaknesses” in its financial reporting. On Thursday, the bank received $53.7 billion in emergency funds from Switzerland’s central bank, but it wasn’t enough to restore confidence in the bank’s viability. Shares of Credit Suisse have tumbled more than 20 percent in the past week, and more than 35 percent this year.
    The past week has raised new questions on what it will take to avert another crisis. On Sunday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called on Congress to lift the federal insurance cap for bank deposits above $250,000. She also urged lawmakers to repeal a provision of the 2018 law that had loosened restrictions on banks with $50 billion or more in assets, saying the latest tumult in the financial system underscored her belief that the Fed has fallen short on its core duties.
    The above is a complete and unedited transcript of a current article in The Washington Post.
  • UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion
    Credit Suisse Importance
    "The bank ranks among the world's largest wealth managers and crucially it is one of 30 global systemically important banks, whose failure would cause ripples through the entire financial system."
    "Credit Suisse has a local Swiss bank, wealth management, investment banking and asset management operations. It has just over 50,000 employees and 1.3 trillion Swiss francs in assets under management at the end of 2022, down from 1.6 trillion a year earlier."
    "With more than 150 offices in around 50 countries, Credit Suisse is the private bank for a large number of entrepreneurs, rich and ultra rich individuals and companies."
    Link
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    This morning there are fewer CDs (1 year) available this morning at Fidelity and Vanguard. On last Friday, there were many more choices. Stayed with large banks only - Morgan Stanley, UBS and Barclays.
    Will wait after March 22th FOMC meeting to see if treasury will return. Two weeks ago T bills were yielding over 5.2% (6 mo) and 4.8% (2 years). Just like that they were all gone.
    It is time to refocus on investment grade bond funds since corporate junk and bank loan funds took a sizable hit this week.
  • UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion
    UBS Group AG agreed to take over its longtime rival Credit Suisse Group AG for more than $3 billion, pushed into the biggest banking deal in years by regulators eager to halt a dangerous decline in confidence in the global banking system. The deal between the twin pillars of Swiss finance is the first megamerger of systemically important global banks since the 2008 financial crisis when institutions across the banking landscape were carved up and matched with rivals, often at the behest of regulators.
    The Swiss government said it would provide more than $9 billion to backstop some losses that UBS may incur by taking over Credit Suisse. The Swiss National Bank also provided more than $100 billion of liquidity to UBS to help facilitate the deal.
    Swiss authorities were under pressure to make the deal happen before Asian markets opened for the week. The urgency on the part of regulators was prompted by an increasingly dire outlook at Credit Suisse, according to one of the people familiar with the matter. The bank faced as much as $10 billion in customer outflows a day last week, this person said.
    The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month prompted investors globally to scour for weak spots in the financial system. Credit Suisse was already first on many lists of troubled institutions, weakened by years of self-inflicted scandals and trading losses. Swiss officials, along with regulators in the U.S., U.K. and European Union, who all oversee parts of the bank, feared it would become insolvent this week if not dealt with, and they were concerned crumbling confidence could spread to other banks.
    An end to Credit Suisse’s nearly 167-year run marks one of the most significant moments in the banking world since the last financial crisis. It also represents a new global dimension of damage from a banking storm started with the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier this month.
    Unlike Silicon Valley Bank, whose business was concentrated in a single geographic area and industry, Credit Suisse is a global player despite recent efforts to reduce its sprawl and curb riskier activities such as lending to hedge funds.
    Credit Suisse had a half-trillion-dollar balance sheet and around 50,000 employees at the end of 2022, including more than 16,000 in Switzerland.
    UBS has around 74,000 employees globally. It has a balance sheet roughly twice as large, at $1.1 trillion in total assets. After swallowing Credit Suisse, UBS’s balance sheet will rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG in asset size.
    The above is excerpted from a current article in The Wall Street Journal, and was edited for brevity.
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    I had forgotten the Robo Advisor cash level isssue
    Not having a sweep account is extremely irritating as it requires you to determine exactly how much you need to sell to cover a buy and since sells are not settled for a couple of days you have to go back and buy the MMF then. I think a lot of small accounts keep money in cash because of this, and a lot of people forget and have higher cash balances than they would like.
    IT didn't make much difference when MMF rates were below 1% but now with big accounts it adds up.
    Per "Simply Safe Dividends"
    "During the last tightening cycle from 2004 to 2007, clients' cash balances fell from 3.6% of assets to 2.2%. The decade of rock-bottom interest rates that followed caused uninvested cash balances to swell to around 6% to 7% of client assets....
    That said, if uninvested cash balances moved closer to 3.5% of client assets versus current levels near 6%, Schwab could lose $200 billion of cheap deposits – that's equivalent to nearly 40% of the firm's total assets."
    It seems unlikely they will create a sweep feature with those numbers.
    As Fidelity and Vanguard are not publicly traded, the problems we are less likely to hear about problems there.
  • Could First Republic’s collapse trigger a recession?
    We’ll know a lot more Wednesday when the FOMC releases its statement. Barron’s reports that the futures markets are pricing in a 65% likelihood of a .25 bp rate hike Wednesday. Forsyth seems to adhere to that view. But there are articles by others in Barron’s predicting the Fed will pause at this week’s meeting. Pause? Yes, they should. In fact, I don’t understand the haste with which they’ve already pushed-up rates - or their fixation with 2% inflation in the first place.
    No single bank failure should trigger a recession. The issues with banks run deep. (And SVB represents more than 1 failing.) The problems with banks are directly related to the speed with which the Fed raised rates. For a body which prides itself on “transparency”, to shift almost overnight from “transient” inflation and accompanying very low overnight lending rates (below 2%) into full crisis mode with rates now approaching 5% is “remarkable”. And it helps explain how some banks’ investment managers came to be caught flat-footed and leaning the wrong way.
    ISTM there will be some type of recession in the next year or two. Recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle. The question should be: how deep and how long lasting?. How all this relates to investing is a different animal. Stocks, from my understanding, tend to fall leading into a recession but begin recovering prior to a recession’s end. Also, provided stocks were bought at reasonable value in the first place, they should appreciate over time along with inflation.
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    Isn't the real issue with Schwab Bank that while 80% of their deposits are under FDIC limit, of their $550 Billions asset base a very large % is in the Schwab Bank Deposit Program, paying almost no interest to the depositors.
    This represents cash balances in folks brokerage accounts, and Schwab invests the money in T Bills etc that generate income for Schwab, not the depositor.
    If people use these funds to buy their own Tbills and get that interest for themselves, Schwab loose a huge source of income and assets on the bank, not the brokerage balance sheet.
  • Right Now: Treasuries vs CDs
    @sma3, check this thread out, https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/post/34619/thread
    Schwab clients pull 8.8 B from prime funds in three days
    (YBB)
    OK, so lot of money shifted internally from Schwab Prime m-mkt funds (subject to gates and/or redemption fees) to Schwab Government m-mkt funds (no gates or redemption fees).
    I looked at prime-retail SWVXX specifically (I am a bit short for its Ultra class SNAXX) using Schwab website data on flows,
    www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/swvxx
    YTD Net Flows to 3/16/23 +$21.55 billion (inflow)
    7-day Net Flows to 3/16/23 -$2.11 billion (outflow)
    3-day Net Flows to 3/16/23 -$3.91 billion (outflow)
    Peak Outflow on 3/14/23 -$3.34 billion (outflow)
    Fund AUM on 3/17/23 $114.51 billion
    It is a big fund with big numbers. I don't see problems with the numbers above in the context of the fund AUM. BTW, the OP is for ALL Schwab m-mkt funds. For SWVXX, the modified headline may be "Schwab clients pull 3.9 B from prime SWVXX in three days".
  • Happier Days at SVB / File Photo from WSJ
    ”A party at Silicone Valley Bank in 2015
    image
    Article: ”We Never Thought A Bank So Successful Could Collapse This Fast”
    Photo / Article appeared in the March 18, 2023 edition of The Wall Street Journal
    Photo Caption - “A Party At Silicone Valley Bank in 2015
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    A bank will fail if there's a run on the bank in excess of the amount of cash the bank can raise.
    Negative equity makes it hard for a bank to raise a lot of cash, since even if it could liquidate its investments without driving prices down, it still wouldn't raise enough cash to cover 100% of deposits.
    The failure arises because of the run on the bank that cannot be met. Merely having negative equity doesn't cause the failure. If we assume that depositors act rationally (there's your joke for the day), then insured depositors will not pull out their money. Under that (ridiculous) assumption of rationality, it also matters what percent of deposits are uninsured.
    To take an extreme case, if there's just a single dollar in a bank that's uninsured, the bank is going to be able to cover a withdrawal of that dollar, regardless of how deeply negative its net equity is. And the remaining dollars, being insured, won't be pulled in a panic.
    Here are two sources with fairly hard figures on percentage of uninsured deposits.
    https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/banks-report-most-exposed-to-uninsured-deposits/
    https://www.businessinsider.com/signature-svb-us-banks-have-over-1-trillion-uninsured-deposits-2023-3
    The IBD piece is based on an S&P report from a few days ago and lists the 10 banks with the highest percentage of uninsured deposits along with their loans and held-to-maturity (HTM) investments. Those are the investments that are hard to liquidate without taking losses, and marked-to-market tend to be below par.
    At the top of the list is BNY Mellon (96% uninsured), though with only 31% of deposits invested in loans and HTM securities. Both SVB and Signature bank are high in both uninsured deposits and HTM+loans (around 90% or higher).
    While not at the same stratospheric levels, Citigroup is notable for having 77% of deposits uninsured (First Republic is at 68%), and 64% of deposits in HTM+loans.
    Company			Symbol	Uninsured deposits / 	Loans and HTM/		YTD %
    domestic deposits total deposits change
    (higher is riskier) (higher is riskier)
    Bank of New York Mellon (BK) 96.5% 31.2% -0.1%
    SVB Financial Group (SIVB) 93.9% 94.4% -53.9%
    State Street (STT) 91.2% 40.1% -1.8%
    Signature (SBNY) 89.7% 93.3% -39.2%
    Northern Trust (NTRS) 83.1% 54.5% -3.1%
    Citigroup (C) 77.0% 64.6% 4.3%
    HSBC Holdings (HSBA) 72.5% 47.4% 11.9%
    First Republic Bank (FRC) 67.7% 110.6% -69.1%
    East West Bancorp (EWBC) 65.9% 91.1% -13.9%
    Comerica (CMA) 62.5% 72.8% -36.6%
    The Business Insider piece looks at "15 major banks" as of the end of 2022. Here too, Citigroup stands out. It must be nice to be TBTF.
    Financial institution	Deposits not insured by the FDIC
    Signature Bank 90%
    SVB 88%
    Citigroup 85%
    First Republic 68%
    JPMorgan 59%
    BNY Mellon 56%
    Citizens Financial 49%
    KeyCorp 47%
    PNC 46%
    Truist 46%
    M&T Bank 45%
    Fifth Third 42%
    Bank of America 33%
    Goldman Sachs 33%
    Huntington Bancshares 33%
  • How much fear is in the air about SVB and the greater implications?
    "And a question for Yogi, who is on the list of "two dozen" banks who would have negative equity if all their bond portfolios were marked to market?"
    @Jim0445, I haven't seen a specific list but that is from Twitter speculations based on full mark-to-market of underwater HTM holdings. See this link for a newest speculation, Twitter LINK.
    A big factor in the demise of these failed banks may have been the role played by the social-media and take all this with generous grains of salt. What used to spread over weeks or months can now spread in hours.
  • Wealthtrack - Weekly Investment Show
    Leading Wall Street economist Nancy Lazar discusses the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite several canaries in the coal mine examples of financial strain. Lazar shares her insights on why the economy is holding up better than expected and what we can expect moving forward, including the impact of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow down the recovery.


  • Summary of David Sherman’s 3/15/2023 web call
    Hi, MikeW.
    David Sherman does things that I like (and respect).
    (1) His strategies are consistently distinctive; there's not a "me, too!" in the bunch. They're thoughtful and serve a valid and important purpose: providing fixed income strategies that diversify a normal fixed income portfolio. Five of his six funds, for instance, have negative downside capture rates; that is, they tend to make money when the bond market is losing it.
    (2) He does not like losing money. That's "the return of principal" principle. His strategies are mostly credit driven; that is, their holdings are less affected by interest rate changes than by the creditworthiness of the issuer. And his team does really rigorous credit research, which is reflected in relatively small and relatively brief drawdowns. Strategic Income did have two positions misfire and/or blow-up about eight years ago, but that's been about it for serious goofs.
    (3) He executes those strategies well. His flagship Short-Term High Yield fund famously has the highest Sharpe ratio of any fund in existence over most of the time periods we've checked. (Over the past 10 years, it is #1 with a Sharpe of 2.26. The second highest ratio is 1.01.) The MFO rating - a conservative metric that relies on the fund's Martin ratio, which also drives the Ulcer Index calculations - for all six of his funds, ranging in age from 1.5 - 12 years, is in the top 20%. The MFO risk rating for five of the six is low and for one, Strategic Income, is below average.
    For what that's worth,
    David
  • Could First Republic’s collapse trigger a recession?

    Here's what "experts" say-
    How worried should the average person be about news that San Francisco’s First Republic Bank is teetering on the brink, following on the heels of Santa Clara’s Silicon Valley Bank, which imploded last week? The bigger issue is whether the bank crisis will continue to spread, and how it could ripple into the economy — for instance, by making it harder to get loans, spurring still more layoffs, and even tipping the country fully into a recession.
    Most experts think that we’re still far from dire consequences, although there could be more short-term pain ahead.
    “For the vast majority of people, this mini crisis is going to pass, and we’re all going to have many other things to worry about in our professional and personal lives,” said Ross Levine, a finance professor at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley. Still, he said, “This is a very uncertain time.”
    Darrell Duffie, a Stanford finance professor, was also sanguine: “The most likely scenario is that the economy will be fine because there won’t be a major problem in the banking system,” he said. “There might be some mergers and some problems at other banks. But I think it’s most likely that after one or two more banks have had to be rescued, whether by merger or similar treatment, it will stop there.”
    Why? “Because the government will do its darndest to make sure this won’t lead to significant contagion,” Duffie said. “There’s every sign the government means business. The speed and size of its actions so far are commensurate with putting a stop to this.”
    Those actions included the extraordinary steps of agreeing to backstop all Silicon Valley Bank deposits, even above the insured limits, and getting 11 big banks to deposit $30 billion into First Republic to signal confidence and help keep it afloat. In addition, the Federal Reserve is ensuring that banks have plenty of funds on hand by making money available to them on “terrifically generous” terms, he said.
    But not everyone was optimistic- John Lonski, former chief economist at Moody’s Investors Service and founder of the economic/market research firm Thru the Cycle, thinks that lots of smaller and regional banks could be consolidated or collapse, as happened in the savings and loan crisis, which triggered the failure of about 1,000 banks from 1986 to 1995.
    He thinks cascading effects this time could include banks tightening credit — which could make it harder for people to get mortgages or credit cards, and for businesses to get loans. And that could lead to an even worse outcome.
    “That credit crunch (could) finally push the U.S. economy into this long-expected recession,” he said. That would mean more layoffs, he said, particularly of middle-aged and older workers, who have higher salaries.
    Anastassia Fedyk, an assistant professor of finance at Haas, weighed in midway between the upbeat and downbeat views: “We are in a contagion spiral, going from Silicon Valley Bank to First Republic,” she said. “It’s speculation at this point about how much more damage we’ll see spilling over to others.”
    But, she cautioned, the domino effect could be real if investor confidence continues to sink. “We’re already on the second domino,” she said. “The regulatory responses were enough to stop some of the fallout from SVB, specifically. All those exposed deposits were protected, but not enough to quell fears that something similar might happen with similarly exposed banks like First Republic.”
    Although she thinks a recession “is in the realm of feasibility,” it’s still early, and the government has a lot more tools at its disposal to stem the risk, she said.
    All eyes are likely to be on the Federal Reserve next week as it meets to decide whether to continue raising interest rates to fight inflation, or press pause on its campaign, Levine said.
    “They face an excruciatingly difficult decision,” he said. “They need to assess the vulnerabilities in the banking industry. If they assess there really are no systemic vulnerabilities, that this is just a few small banks, then they are likely to choose to continue with (raising rates). If they see other risks, risks they view as genuine or (that) could induce banks to restrict credit — even if the Fed views banking as very sound — then they might decide to pause the raising of interest rates.”
    Duffie thinks the Fed is less likely to raise interest rates than it otherwise would have done. The banking events themselves could cause credit to tighten, thereby lowering inflation, he said. “It’s a shifting of probabilities from the Fed pushing on inflation and therefore taking a risk of recession to this brewing problem in the banking system having a similar effect on credit provision,” he said.
    “Given the uncertainties, pausing for one meeting cycle could be very prudent,” Levine said. “Markets are obviously very sensitive on banks now. Waiting to tighten credit might give everything a chance to calm down.”
    The above is a current article by Carolyn Said in The San Francisco Chronicle, lightly edited for brevity.