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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fed Watch
    Anybody tempted to watch the press conference?
    You will probably be able to tell what Powell says based on SP500
  • Sell all bond funds?
    I would say all bonds and bond funds are affected by duration, but if you hold an individual bond to maturity you don't notice it. If you choose to sell that 5-year TIPS in a rising rate environment prior to maturity, you would realize losses from the duration impact. As for taxes, my impression is the treatment and phantom-income like tax adjustments is the same for individual TIPS as for TIPS funds. You pay taxes on the inflation adjustment with an individual bond even though you don't receive it as income:
    https://cpapracticeadvisor.com/2022/04/07/the-tax-tips-about-tips-treasury-inflation-protection-securities/49016/
    This is why the TIPS funds pay out the inflation adjustments because they are a taxable event and treated by the IRS as income. If anything, I'd rather have the payout in hand from the funds to help pay the taxes. Interestingly, the same is not true for I Savings bonds. The income is completely deferred tax wise.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    If the objective is to keep up with inflation, 5-yr TIPS held to maturity will do that. Longer-term TIPS will too, but it may be harder to hold them maturity. TIPS funds on the other hand are affected by duration and non-maturity; they are also required to distribute inflation-adjustment annually, whether earned or not, inflows or not.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VTIP&compare=$$CPI,TIP&id=p91391514086
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Who knows? Not the sharpest knife in the bond deck here. But I have a lot more bonds (thru funds) than cash. If short or intermediate duration bonds, they may possibly do better than cash over time without a whole lot of duration risk. Don’t overlook some capital appreciation if rates fall. Bonds / bond funds do move around in value day to day, so having some might temper portfolio volatility more than cash would if striving for balance. But it’s a close call.
    I like global bonds as a hedge against a falling dollar. I’ve been moving my small bit of cash in and out of a GNMA etf, buying in at near 4% on the 10 year and unloading them when the 10-year nears 3.5%. So I’m currently out with the 10 year around 3.6%. That game will work until it doesn’t. Likely, interest rates are headed higher over the long term - which would kill that goose.
    There’s no certainty any of the above will work out as planned. I usually operate differently than most here. So realize cash has been the “flavor of the month” for quite a few months now. The rates are currently attractive. Do I want to tear apart a balanced portfolio to throw a bunch into cash? No.
    (PS - I don’t do TIPS. Others can debate the merits. I notice some added commentary below.)
  • Sell all bond funds?
    Not a bad strategy, but it’s a mistake to compare past performance to future expectations as in “I don’t own a single bond fund that can come close to that over the past five years and only one that tops that over 10 years.” It’s the next five- and ten-years that matter, not the last ten. Moreover, if you had held a CD 10 years ago until today, you wouldn’t have received 5.34% annualized either, closer to zero I bet as much of that period rates were considerably lower. So, you must look at the forward yield and credit quality of bonds today and compare them to the forward yield and credit quality of CDs with comparable maturities. I also think the fact that the CDs you mentioned are callable is problematic. If rates go lower, your yield disappears.
  • Sell all bond funds?
    I realize that bond fund returns go up and down, but their abysmal long-term returns after the past year or so are astonishing. With CD yields so high right now, why not just ditch bond funds and put all the money in CDs? I can construct a 5-year CD ladder at Fidelity with every issue exceeding 5% and an overall yield of 5.34%. Jeez … I don’t own a single bond fund that can come close to that over the past five years and only one that tops that over 10 years. How many years would it take my bond funds to earn as much as this simple CD ladder? Answer: a lot.
    The only fly in the ointment is that few of the higher yielding CDs are call-protected, so if yields drop a lot, I suspect that many of these banks will be calling in their CDs.
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    MSF - I really appreciate the effort you put into this analysis! I'm 75, widowed, good health (so far), earning $60K (after 401-K contribution) from working part-time (which I plan to continue). Most of my income is from investments, pension, and SS. True retirement would probably drop me into the 32% federal tax bracket. Thanks for your insight!
  • Vanguard Said to Shutter Business in China, Exit Ant Venture
    AS reported in Barron's this week (my summary below, LINK), JPM is going into China,
    "Mary ERDOES, JPM. RISK management in banking is essential. 3 recent bank failures (Silvergate, SVB, Signature) were partly from weaknesses in risk controls. The banking system as a whole is in much better shape now than during the GFC 2008-09 – the loan/deposit ratios are low; the capital ratios are high. There is much higher regulatory scrutiny for the systemically important banks (SIBs) than for smaller banks and may be new regulations can address that. Chances for US RECESSION are high (65%) and JPM is prepared; some sectors of the economy such as housing may be in recession already. FED’s path to +2% average inflation won’t be easy or smooth. After the disaster last year, the 60-40 portfolios look attractive for these volatile markets. ALTERNATIVE investments are fine for those who can take higher risks, but don’t overdo those as some university endowments have done. DIVERSIFICATION is useful but keep in mind that diversified mixes evolve; problems arise when investors get stuck on some fixed diversification mixes. HOME-COUNTRY biases are strong in the US but are everywhere. The ESG is in flux, and it is important to provide the asset managers the leeway on ESG. JPM is using AI for security and fraud prevention.
    CHINA is challenging but important; even if you are not in China, it will affect your investments. After 100+ years in China, and lots of efforts there, JPM can now own 100% of its joint-ventures and it has big expansion plans targeted for the Chinese population. But JPM stays away from the politics of the US-China relations. JPM sent a delegation to UKRAINE in February because JPM is #1 debt issuer for Ukraine; it gave Ukraine 2-yr payment deferrals after the war started; it will also be involved heavily in post-war reconstruction and redevelopment (and some thought that JPM was pulling a stunt with its Ukraine trip)."
  • Janet Yellen to Reassure Bankers
    a@yogibb said,
    CME FedWatch THIS evening is showing these rate changes and probabilities (see image) for the next several FOMCs:
    +25--+25--hold--cut--cut--, etc.
    That sounds reasonable as US is approaching the end of the rate hike cycle. So we will see tomorrow.
    By the way, Canada has decided to hold their rate for now as sighs of inflation cooling (faster than they expected).
  • 401-K: To Rollover Or Not To Rollover
    There are too many variables and possibilities for me to write up a complete description let alone an analysis right now. Difference in tax rates post-retirement, number of years until retirement (at which point you should switch to IRA since the 401(k) then offers no more deferral of RMDs), number of anticipated years of life (not IRS tables), type of beneficiary (spouse or other), expected rate of return (and variability of returns).
    Broad picture - the more your tax rates drop in retirement the better off you are in keeping the money in the 401(k), since that will avoid RMDs until they're taxed at the lower rates. That tax savings can more than compensate for the extra fees in the meantime.
    If there's no change in rates, the picture changes. Each year you pay $8K in taxes using the IRA, meaning you have $8K less earning returns. Keep the $500K in the 401(k) and you have $4800 less due to fees that can earn returns. So you've got about $3.2K more with the 401(k) sitting there earning returns.
    But while the $4800 loss to fees in the 401(k) is permanent, the loss of an extra $8K in taxes with the IRA is temporary. Keeping the money in the 401(k), sooner or later, you'd still withdraw the $20K, post-retirement, and pay the $8K in taxes then.
    I don't have the time right now to delve more deeply into this. Gut feeling is that a sizeable post-retirement reduction in tax rates would justify keeping the money in the 401(k). Otherwise, moving the money to the IRA may come out better.
  • Regional Banks Spreadsheet and BHB
    See pg 13, https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/743367/000155837023003742/bhb-20221231x10k.htm
    It is clear to me. May be it didn't fit Editor's narrative of "high" uninsured deposits.
    So, (328.5 + 13.8)/3,076.625 = 0.1113, or 11.13%
    Some community banks just don't do much uninsured deposits - by choice or by reality. BHB also doesn't seem to use tools such as IntraFi for spreading large deposits around among other FDIC insured banks. Some banks that use IntraFi may state uninsured deposits as those NOT covered by FDIC directly OR through the IntraFi network.
    www.intrafi.com/solutions/depositors/
  • Regional Banks Spreadsheet and BHB
    @crash
    I asked him why BHB had “NA”:under % uninsured deposits
    here is his response which is a bit over my head
    BHB's deposit disclosure wasn't as clear to us. I copied in a relevant excerpt from the latest 10-K below, which could imply less than 15% of total deposits are uninsured. But I'm unsure if this is an all-inclusive figure as it feels low.
    ------
    30cee1b006c7b7cfbf14560c00bd3d16.png
    Estimated uninsured non-maturity deposits were $328.5 million as of December 31, 2022 and $352.9 million as of December 31, 2021. Estimated uninsured time deposits were $13.8 million and $24.6 million as of December 31, 2022 and 2021, respectively. The following table presents the scheduled maturities of time deposits greater than $250 thousand at December 31, 2022:
    a46383b59db36ae3365c894ab2fd71ba.png
    ------
    I am sorry the images dont copy but they are from 10-K
    Brian is very responsive so he might reply if you ask him. Great newsletter and lots of data but price has gone up a bit.
  • Janet Yellen to Reassure Bankers
    CME FedWatch THIS evening is showing these rate changes and probabilities (see image) for the next several FOMCs:
    +25--+25--hold--cut--cut--, etc.
    We will know for sure TOMORROW.
    image
  • Regional Banks Spreadsheet and BHB
    @Crash- Not on this list, at least-
    Banks With Highest Uninsured Deposit Balances
    Bank of New York Mellon ____ 96.5%
    SVB Financial Group________. 93.9%
    State Street ________________ 91.2%
    Signature _________________- 89.7%
    Northern Trust _____________- 83.1%
    Citigroup __________________ 77.0%
    HSBC Holdings ____________ 72.5%
    First Republic Bank _____-___ 67.7%
    East West Bancorp ____..____ 65.9%
    Comerica ____________._____ 62.5%
    Source
  • Janet Yellen to Reassure Bankers
    Banks With Highest Uninsured Deposit Balances
    Bank of New York Mellon ____ 96.5%
    SVB Financial Group________. 93.9%
    State Street ________________ 91.2%
    Signature _________________- 89.7%
    Northern Trust _____________- 83.1%
    Citigroup __________________ 77.0%
    HSBC Holdings ____________ 72.5%
    First Republic Bank _____-___ 67.7%
    East West Bancorp ____..____ 65.9%
    Comerica ____________._____ 62.5%
    Source
  • Regional Banks Spreadsheet and BHB
    Simply Safe Dividends is an investment news letter that I have found very helpful. It focuses on dividend stock portfolios but also analyses hundreds of companies.
    The editor just published a "regional bank spreadsheet" with data from dozens of regional banks including BHB ( @Crash )
    https://www.simplysafedividends.com/world-of-dividends/posts/5757-most-regional-banks-look-stable-but-may-face-tougher-regulations-higher-funding-costs
    I think you can access it without a membership. He breaks them down into low medium and high risk and also takes into account risk of increased regulation.
    I have the spreadsheet but can't figure out how to copy and paste it here.
    THANKS! Very grateful. Thanks for thinking of me.
    *******
    We reviewed 59.....Assuming the Fed's actions (more on that below) minimize the probability of widespread bank runs, we do not anticipate changing many Dividend Safety Scores in response to these events outside of the downgrades we issued this week for First Republic, Zions, and UMB Financial....More downgrades are possible
    ...That said, these are the banks (in alphabetical order) that have a higher mix of uninsured deposits, larger unrealized investment losses, and/or more exposure to tougher regulations
    :
    BHB falls in the "Medium to Low" category. So, as far as they can tell, it's among the safer regional banks.
  • Don't believe --- Bruce Fund
    I hold Bruce, too, in wife's T-IRA.
    WSJ website reports for 2022:
    Income distrib. $13.09
    CG. $58.66
    Thanks for the heads-up.
    Yes, over the longer-term, Bruce has served us very well.
  • Don't believe --- Bruce Fund
    From @NumbersGal linked article:
    Bruce Fund (BRUFX)
    Inception date: 3/20/1968
    Capital gain in 2022: 58.7%
    This fund invests in domestic stocks and bonds, along with zero-coupon government bonds. It currently has about $505 million in assets, and its price declined 20% last year. With a current NAV of $520, an investor with 10 shares worth would have a capital gains bill of about $3,100 to then pay taxes on.
    Per M*:
    BRUFX had a loss of (8.76%) while the Category average was a loss of (14.96%).
    NAV can be impacted by distributions. BRUFX distributed both LT gains and a dividend but $3100 on 10 shares? This article seems a bit off. More Like $1000 on 10 shares. Maybe the author is a ChatGPT 'bot?
    Interestingly, the last time BRUFX had an NAV of $520 (aside from the COVID hiccup) was 2/4/2019. Yesterday its NAV was $520, but had you owed the fund over that time period you would have gained almost 35%. I personally own this fund in an HSA so I pay no taxes on these gains.
    image
    BRUFX, long term, has been berry berry good to me.
    image
  • Morningstar charts not working
    @sma3 - LINK (Direct link to the IOS / Portfolio Trader Stock Tracker website.)
    Also, here’s a link to a MFO Discussion last June after M* announced an end to the free tracker.
    In my second comment beginning “Not a website. But $1.99 a month gets you a fantastic tracker …” I described the tracker. Further into the discussion some were having trouble locating it (some had the wrong app) and I tried to further describe it.
    So after 8+ months I’m still in awe. It’s never failed to produce accurate up to date pricing. The colorful pie-charts it automatically produces allow 2 different way to look at allocations - in numbers or percentages (just tap the screen). I’ll say it is a “pistol” to learn. As I mentioned in one post, I spent several hours one weekend playing around with it before inputting real data. It would be easy to get discouraged and give up.
    A glimpse into how I use it: I have 4 overall sleeves - Growth, Income, Alternatives, Hedges. Each sleeve appears in aggregate on a combined pie chart w / % or sum. Then each of those subsets has its own pie chart which is further broken down into the funds or stocks held inside. Have only sent off 1 question to support. It came back within 24 hours with actually more information than requested. One more nice feature is that it automatically syncs across all your IOS devices. Password protected of course.