Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Are fund prices currently messed up on various trackers?
    This started last evening when 1 of my 2 tracking apps sent out a message from the administrator that they were unable to obtain day-end prices from Yahoo, but that we could go into settings and change our price source to Google. I did that with a couple holdings but didn’t resolve issue. Both of my main tracking apps and also some free online services are still showing varying prices and performance for identical funds this morning.
    Anybody else encounter issues with yesterday’s quotes? PRPFX is the one I’ve worked on. One tracker has it $47.98, a 5 cent gain. The other says $48.09, a 16 cent gain. MSN Money (Bing) shows currently $47.93, with no reference to the last daily move. If just that 1 fund, I wouldn’t mind. But several others are affected.
    Added later - CNBC is at 47.93 (PRPFX) which agrees with MSN Money, but neither tracking app. M* also says 47.93 and down 0.33%. And Google now has $47.93. Looks like both of my tracking apps are screwed up.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/19/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 4/19/23
    For the week ending on 4/19/23, neutral remained the top sentiment (37.7%; above average) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (27.2%; below average); bearish remained the middle sentiment (35.1%; above average); Bull-Bear Spread was -7.9% (below average). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed; dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (60+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds down, oil down sharply, gold down, dollar up. An unusually high 1m-3m T-Bill spread points to some liquidity issue developing. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1016/thread
  • Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund to be liquidated
    There was a related filing earlier on 3/20/23 on multi-asset VPGDX merger into moderate-allocation (fund of index funds) VSMGX that also outlined these steps: Liquidation of VG Alternative Strategies on/around 4/19/23, distribution of any related CGs, and then the completion of VPGDX + VSMGX merger by 5/19/23.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/736054/000168386323002318/f24738d1.htm
  • Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund to be liquidated
    update:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313850/000168386323003487/f25414d1.htm
    497 1 f25414d1.htm VANGUARD ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FUND LIQUIDATION

    Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund
    Supplement Dated April 19, 2023, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated February 27, 2023
    Important Changes to Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund (the Fund)

    On February 14, 2023, the board of trustees of the Fund approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund. Effective as of the close of business on April 19, 2023, the liquidation is complete.
    In connection with the liquidation, shareholders may receive proceeds that are taxable. Any liquidation proceeds paid to shareholders should generally be treated as received in exchange for their shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss, depending on their basis in the shares. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors about any tax liability resulting from the receipt of liquidation proceeds.

    © 2023 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
    Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor.PS 1298B 042023
    Vanguard Trustees' Equity Fund
    Supplement Dated April 19, 2023, to the Statement of Additional Information Dated February 27, 2023
    Important Changes to Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund (the Fund)
    On February 14, 2023, the board of trustees of the Fund approved a proposal to liquidate and dissolve the Fund. Effective as of the close of business on April 19, 2023, the liquidation is complete.
    In connection with the liquidation, shareholders may receive proceeds that are taxable. Any liquidation proceeds paid to shareholders should generally be treated as received in exchange for their shares and will therefore generally give rise to a capital gain or loss, depending on their basis in the shares. Shareholders should consult their own tax advisors about any tax liability resulting from the receipt of liquidation proceeds.
    Any references to the Fund in this Statement of Additional Information are hereby deleted.
    © 2023 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
    SAI 046C 042023
    Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor.
  • What Beat the S&P 500 Over the Past Three Decades? Doing Nothing
    I saw that article. Worth noting is that the method of reinvesting divs was different from what funds do. He reinvesting divs into the stocks generating those divs (computing total returns for each holding), while a fund or index (I presume) reinvests divs regardless of their source by prorating across all holdings.
    For buy and hold (and for beating the S&P 500 over the past three decades), see LEXCX.
  • Polen DDJ Opportunistic High Yield Fund is going to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1558107/000139834423007449/fp0083272-1_497.htm
    497 1 fp0083272-1_497.htm
    ALPS SERIES TRUST
    Polen DDJ Opportunistic High Yield Fund
    (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated April 19, 2023 to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated January 27, 2023, as supplemented
    On February 16, 2023, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of ALPS Series Trust (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Polen Capital Credit, LLC, the investment adviser to the Fund, approved the proposed reorganization of the Fund into a correspondingly named series of FundVantage Trust (the “New Fund”), subject to the approval of the shareholders of the existing Fund (the “Reorganization”).
    The Board also approved an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization (the “Plan”) that provides that the existing Fund will assign all of its assets to the New Fund, in exchange solely for (1) the number of the New Fund shares equivalent in value to shares of the existing Fund outstanding immediately prior to the closing date of the Reorganization, and (2) the New Fund’s assumption of all of the existing Fund’s liabilities, followed by a distribution of those shares to such existing Fund’s shareholders so that the existing Fund’s shareholders receive shares of the New Fund equivalent in value to the shares of the existing Fund held by such shareholder on the closing date of the Reorganization. The Reorganization is intended to qualify as a tax-free reorganization for federal income tax purposes.
    The Trust will hold a shareholder meeting on July 5, 2023, as may be adjourned, at which shareholders of the existing Fund as of April 11, 2023 will be asked to consider and vote on the Plan. If shareholders of the Fund approve the Reorganization, the Reorganization is expected to take effect on or around July 24, 2023.
    Shareholders of the existing Fund will receive a combined prospectus/proxy statement with additional information about the shareholders meeting, the Reorganization, and the New Fund. Please read these materials carefully, as they will contain a more detailed description of the Reorganization.
    Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information.
  • Technology Issue Delays More Than 2200 Southwest Flights Tuesday
    Oh boy, we flew on Southwest 737 last summer. They switched from the long time stable DC-10 to this new plane.
    Hi @Sven - The DC-10 is a wide-body type of aircraft, probably closer to the early 747s in size than the 737. It’s very unlikely SW ever used it. Suspect you meant to refer to different generations of the 737, which has grown greatly in size and capabilities over its 50 decades in service.
    Some snippets from Wikipedia:
    “Since its inception, Southwest Airlines has almost exclusively operated Boeing 737 aircraft (except for a brief period when it leased and flew some Boeing 727-200 aircraft). Southwest is the world's largest operator of the Boeing 737.”
    “In November 2020, the FAA formally ended the 737 MAX grounding, and Southwest began the process of returning its 34 737 MAX aircraft to service and retraining all of its pilots. On March 11, 2021, Southwest resumed 737 MAX operation, becoming the fourth US airline to do so.”
    “In October 2020, Southwest announced that it was considering the Airbus A220 as an alternative to the MAX 7 to replace its 737-700s, with deliveries from 2025. However, in March 2021 Southwest announced an order for 100 MAX 7 jets with deliveries from 2022 and said that negotiations with Airbus were never initiated.”
    -
    Historically, the 737 line has been a very reliable aircraft and fit in well with Southwest’s point-to-point short-haul service model, which demanded high frequency takeoffs and landings and fast turn-around times, plus the ability to operate out of smaller airfields with shorter runways. Of course, the lastest 737 version, the MAX has created much havoc for SW.
  • Precious metals are breaking out
    SGOL and GLDM have lower ER (0.17 and 0.10) than IAU or GLD
    Precious metals ETFs have 28% capital gains tax rate as "Collectible".
    If you are interested PHYS is Canadian and qualifies as a PFIC (Passive Foreign Investment Corporation" and capital gains are taxed at usual capital gains rates ( ie 15 to 20%)
    https://www.sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-bullion-trusts/gold-and-silver/tax-information/
    However the forms ( 8621) required are complex and not supported by Turbo Tax so you have to file on paper. As I had a small refund coming I am not terribly worried about processing time.
    I think I figured it out but it took a while. I have the time as I am retired and like intellectual challenges ( even with the IRS).
    You should do your own calculations if the time and extra expense if you pay someone to do your taxes is worth saving 13% on your capital gains. Probably depends on size of your position.
    I am thinking if I have a gain by the end of the year the size of my position doesn't make it worthwhile and I will probably sell it.
  • Americans have a net worth problem, and it’s not positive
    Is this new to this young generation as this survey suggests? No. I don't believe it is generational at all. As Lewis suggests, it's where you stand on the economic ladder.
    And it's not new. A look at the number of todays seniors where social security is their sole income is not much different than this "survey's" critique genX or genZ or any other subset generation they want to pick. It's social status, not generational.
    Social Security is the sole source of income for about one in five (20 percent) people aged 65 and older. Certain subgroups are particularly reliant on Social Security. Of those age 65 and older, Social Security is the sole source of income for 40 percent of Hispanics, 33 percent of African Americans, 26 percent of Asian and Pacific Islanders, 18 percent of whites, and 20 percent of unmarried women.
    per https://www.nasi.org/learn/social-security/the-role-of-benefits-in-income-and-poverty-2/#:~:text=Social%20Security%20is%20the%20sole,people%20aged%2065%20and%20older.
  • Americans have a net worth problem, and it’s not positive
    I know. But it seems irrelevant to say Americans aren't saving enough when so many have nothing left over to save after paying their bills. I often think the constant complaints posed in the media over "financial illiteracy" are really just a coded repeat of the "personal responsibility" mantra, blaming the victims of massive income inequality for their own suffering when that inequality is systemic and, largely, by design, and not primarily due to individual moral or ethical failings. Yes, people should save more and put more in their retirement plans. But there are often really good reasons they can't, and in certain cases lousy reasons. There tends to be a fixation on the lousy reasons.
    I think it's a combination of structural inequity AND lack of personal responsibility.
    If money's tight, do we really need to go into hock for that summer vacation just because it's summer vacation and everyone is 'supposed' to take a trip? I would argue no; find something local that's more cost effective and go when you're not going to spend the next 10 years paying interest on the credit card debt used to finance the week away.
    But at the same time, one can argue that the structure of the capitalist system also runs against people, too. For example, think how many things are now subscription-based versus years ago. Or why is there a 'PBM' dictating what medicine you can get when they're NOT your doctor? Etc, etc.
    And don't get me started on the insane nature of our retirement system, account limitations on contributions, etc. I long since quit playing the annual contribute-and-convert-to-Roth game because for only 5-7K/year it wasn't worth it. If you want to create responsible savers, let them save what they want WHEN THEY WANT TO. Had a windfall year and can sock away 50K? Great! Had a bad year and couldn't contribute more than 5K? Okay, that's fine, too. But things like the Roth phase-out and the huge delta between 40X contribution levels and IRA contribution levels remains a sore spot for me. Nobody these days can expect a comfy retirement in 2050+ on tucking away 5-7K a year in an IRA no matter how much it might grow or how lucky the investments are.
    And there's the whole single-person-penalty when compared to married couples on taxation and more. Hell, our tax code in general is slanted against most people anyway. Grargh....
    Living within your means and staying debt free is what enables true freedom, but that thinking just ain't profitable.
    (sorry, I'm on a roll this week - I'm hosting 2 different sessions for our uni's financial literacy week)
  • Americans have a net worth problem, and it’s not positive
    Just tossing this Credit Karma survey out there for those interested.
    ° More than half of Americans don’t know how to calculate their net worth (51%)
    ° Nearly one-third of Americans have a net worth of $0 or less (31%)
    ° 30% of Gen Z care more about celebrities’ net worth than their own
    Survey
  • even more evidence about not beating the market
    So we're near the end of two pages of discussion on this topic and not ONE time has the term "alpha" been stated
    If I own a volatile fund, I expect it to go down more than the market. But I also look for it to more than make up that underperformance on the upswing.
    That's an intuitive description of alpha, at least for funds with beta above one. Though I should have been clearer, by "market" I meant the submarket of the investible universe in which the fund operates, as opposed to the "broad market" or "market as a whole".
    While alpha purports to quantify this sense of outperformance, it has a number of flaws, starting with Investopedia's definition. When a fund's performance is regressed against an inappropriate benchmark (such as calculating alpha of a sector fund by comparing it to the "broad market") the result is meaningless (low R²).
    In case there's any uncertainty that by "broad market" Investopedia means the investible universe, it removes all doubt when it says that "there is no way to systematically earn returns that exceed the broad market as a whole." That's true only if it is impossible for a fund to fish outside of the "broad market", i.e. if the broad market includes "everything".
    Yogi alluded to this problem, noting that with Zacks one often doesn't know what the benchmark is.
    Timeframe is another problem with alpha. Lewis implicitly flagged this in pointing out that fund performance is typically inconsistent. While I generally like using standardized time frames, for statistics like alpha and beta complete market cycles would seem to give more meaningful figures.
    FWIW, PRWAX beats the S&P for ALL SIX YTD-to-Life interim periods. We are current and LT holders of PRWAX (drumroll) because of its alpha and those results.
    Rule 482 [see 17 CFR § 230.482(d)(3)(ii)] and Rule 34b-1 permit the inclusion of performance information in investment company sales material. If performance information is included, Rule 482 requires disclosure of the fund’s maximum sales charges and its average annual total return for the most recent one-, five- and 10-year periods, as of the most recent calendar quarter.
    https://www.finra.org/sites/default/files/NoticeDocument/p017302.pdf
    Portfolio Visualizer compares All-Cap PRWAX with the total stock market (e.g. VTSMX). PRWAX comes up short in the alpha department in one of those standard time frames (each of which terminates on the quarter ending March 31, 2023), and over its lifetime. Click on the "Metrics" tab for the alpha figures:
    1. PV 1 year (April 2022 - March 2023): alpha = -1.87; S&P 500 alpha = +1.00
    2. PV 5 year (April 2018 - March 2023): alpha = 3.66; s&P 500 alpha = 1.00
    3. PV 10 year (April 2013 - March 2023): alpha = 3.39; S&P 500 alpha = 0.78
    4. PV lifetime (Oct 1985 - March 2023): alpha =-0.09; S&P 500 alpha = 0.47
    IMHO YTD is meaningless, but for completeness PRWAX underperformed both VTSMX and VFINX YTD (using standardized period, i.e. through March 31st). It also underperformed VFINX YTD through April 17th.
  • even more evidence about not beating the market
    At LewisBraham. His 15 year streak ended in 2006. A remarkable achievement. Think that record will ever be broken? Seems unlikely. Who was Bill Miller?
  • TRP's Bi-Annual Investor Insight Magazine
    Topics this Month:
    Hitting Your Retirement Savings Goal
    5 Things to know about the New RMD Rules & Secure 2.0
    20 Years of Target Date Funds
    Non Financial Aspects of Retirement
    Investor Insight Magazine
  • even more evidence about not beating the market
    Use the incessant annual/interim articles to help you identify which PMs/funds are the ones that consistently outperform their benchmarks.
    That is the problem in a nutshell, though. There are virtually no funds--perhaps none at all--that consistently outperform their benchmarks, especially in the large-cap U.S. stock space. Even the best funds often have lumpy performance, and many investors, including investors on this board, can't psychologically handle that lumpy performance when the fund is having a bout of significant underperformance. In fact, the lack of consistency is one reason the stats of underperformance versus the S&P 500 long-term are so high. The fund that outperforms the S&P 500 this year will very rarely be the same as the fund that outperforms it in the next. Meanwhile the fee drag of active management is consistent year after year and is utterly predictable. It is the most predictable thing about active management. Over time the outperformance of big up years can't overcome the cumulative effect of that fee drag for almost every large-cap fund. And even when the fund can overcome the fee drag many of its investors don't enjoy it because psychologically they buy and sell the fund at the wrong times, chasing its hot performance and bailing out of it at the bottom.
    I would add that the referenced PRWAX has also not consistently beaten its benchmark even in calendar years, let alone rolling ones. Morningstar benchmarks it against a Large Growth index and T. Rowe benchmarks it against the Russell 3000. In both cases, there are lagging years:
    https://troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/all-cap-opportunities-fund.html In fact, the fund has lagged its T. Rowe-chosen Russell 3000 benchmark in both 2022 and 2021 as well as 2016 and 2014--lumpy but strong overall performance.
    Fun Trivia question: What fund manager holds the record for beating the S&P 500 the most consecutive calendar years in a row? The old-timers here should know. The answer in a way explains why you can't really put much faith in most active managers long-term.
    Finally, I would note that the best use of a consistent alpha metric--as opposed to an intermittent alpha one--might be for identifying fraud. There is probably something fishy going on with a fund that beats its benchmark every single year. I bet Madoff had some really high alpha.
  • even more evidence about not beating the market
    This post is NOT in direct response to ANY particular prior post.
    So we're near the end of two pages of discussion on this topic and not ONE time has the term "alpha" been stated and no attempts have been made to assert its relevance/importance in this discussion. (Another reason why I generally find worthless the annual/interim discussions of the performance of all stock funds vs indexes.)
    So then...
    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alpha.asp
    Excerpt:
    What Is Alpha?
    Alpha (α) is a term used in investing to describe an investment strategy's ability to beat the market, or its "edge." Alpha is thus also often referred to as “excess return” or “abnormal rate of return,” which refers to the idea that markets are efficient, and so there is no way to systematically earn returns that exceed the broad market as a whole. Alpha is often used in conjunction with beta (the Greek letter β), which measures the broad market's overall volatility or risk, known as systematic market risk.
    Alpha is used in finance as a measure of performance, indicating when a strategy, trader, or portfolio manager has managed to beat the market return over some period. Alpha, often considered the active return on an investment, gauges the performance of an investment against a market index or benchmark that is considered to represent the market’s movement as a whole.
    The excess return of an investment relative to the return of a benchmark index is the investment’s alpha. Alpha may be positive or negative and is the result of active investing. Beta, on the other hand, can be earned through passive index investing.

    Please temporarily couch your bias for/against Zack's. Just using a page of theirs below to illustrate the relevance/importance of it in this discussion, and in the scoping of funds that consistently outperform benchmarks.
    https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2079438/is-t-rowe-price-all-cap-opportunities-fund-prwax-a-strong-mutual-fund-pick-right-now?cid=CS-YAHOO-FT-mutual_fund_equity_report-2079438
    Excerpt:
    Risk Factors
    With a 5-year beta of 1, the fund is likely to be as volatile as the market average. Another factor to consider is alpha, as it reflects a portfolio's performance on a risk-adjusted basis relative to a benchmark-in this case, the S&P 500. Over the past 5 years, the fund has a positive alpha of 2.72. This means that managers in this portfolio are skilled in picking securities that generate better-than-benchmark returns.

    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/compare/overview/averageAnnualReturnsYear3/desc/1?order=&tickers=PRWAX,FXAIX
    FWIW, PRWAX beats the S&P for ALL SIX YTD-to-Life interim periods. We are current and LT holders of PRWAX (drumroll) because of its alpha and those results.
    Bottom Line: Use the incessant annual/interim articles to help you identify which PMs/funds are the ones that consistently outperform their benchmarks. Avoid concentrating on the headline news that, um, duh, most of them don't.
  • even more evidence about not beating the market
    Nicholas Fund. Third ave value. Sogen international. Mutual shares. Of course Fidelity Magellan. Those are just the ones I can remember. But they come and they go.
    CNN/Money, THE BEST MUTUAL FUNDS Here Are the Pros' Choices for the Next Decade, October 12, 1987.
    The text is presented in a single, unbroken, stream of sentences, so I don't recommend reading. A few highlights:
    "Although the managers we interviewed were divided on when a market downturn would come, almost all agreed that one is long overdue. When it does happen, many fear stock prices could sink 20% to 40%".
    The dateline of the piece is Oct 12, 1987. Black Monday was exactly one week later, when the Dow dropped 22.6% in a single day. That was after selloffs Oct 14-16 that resulted in the Dow declining 4.6%.
    https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1987
    Results:
    1. VWNDX, then managed for 23 years by John Neff (age 56). Had a wide lead over #2 winner.
    2. MUTHX, then managed by Max Heine and Michael Price (age 36). Money says that Price had been managing with Heine for 13 years, which would date back to his joining Heine Securities in 1975. Money also describes Price as the principal manager. But the 1995 prospectus for the fund says that Price had been managing the day-to-day operations for five years (i.e. starting around 1990).
    " In contrast to our top two funds, both of which employ a primarily conservative (and contrarian) approach, eight of the top 10 ... are either aggressive growth or long-term growth funds."
    3. NICSX - managed by founder
    3. (tie) ACRNX - managed by founder, Ralph Wanger
    5. SEQUX - managed by founder
    6. PENNX
    7. Evergreen Fund - managed by founder
    This fund is hard to trace. Evergreen funds were owned by First Union Corp. (banking company), which merged into Wachovia in 2001, which was acquired by Wells Fargo in 2008. Somewhere along that line the Evergreen fund may have gotten renamed or merged into another Evergreen or Keystone fund.
    Evergreen was so scandal-ridden (e.g. 2001-2003 trading abuses, 2008 ultra short bond mispricings), not to mention merely being owned by Wells Fargo, that it's no surprise one cannot find a trace of it now. I especially like the lead in the CBS piece on the ultrashort bond fund: "There's really only one word that can be used to describe people who engaged in the sorts of activities Evergreen is accused of: crooks."
    8. FMAGX. "(up 1,795% to July 1 [for past 10 years], compared with 590% for Windsor). ... . One of the reasons for Magellan's downgrading is that the fund, like many growth seekers that remain fully invested in stocks at all times, is likely to stumble in declining markets."
    VPMCX, only 3 years old at the time, came in at #12.
    Perhaps a good summary of attitudes at the time is this part of the text:
    low in our experts' esteem were index funds -- the increasingly popular vehicles that aim to match the returns of a major market barometer such as the S&P 500. Ralph Wanger, manager of the third-place Acorn Fund, was the one maverick in our survey, awarding a vote to Vanguard's $900 million no- load Index Trust, up 27.3% for the six months to July 1, compared with 27.4% for the S&P 500 that it attempts to duplicate. Says Wanger: ''At least you're assured of approximating the market averages with an index fund. The S& P 500 is one tough bogey."
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    CFG Bank out of Baltimore. 12 and 18 months available: $500 minimum. Must fund it by ACH. Must be able to upload DL. Deal-breaker for me. Rate: 5.08% and yield = 5.2%.
    https://originate.cfg.bank/TeaOGDZRznczU20/getting-started/landing-page
    https://www.cfg.bank/personal-banking/personal-deposit-rates/
    EDIT: DL upload not essential. I tried it. The process did allow me to go forward, though I did not finish. Not ready.