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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • PacWest falls 50% after hours on report bank is weighing sale
    Likely short sellers are hard at work here
    Reuters: U.S. officials assessing possible 'manipulation' on banking shares
    Increased short-selling activity and volatility in shares have drawn increasing scrutiny by federal and state officials and regulators in recent days, given strong fundamentals in the sector and sufficient capital levels, said the source, who was not authorized to speak publicly.
    "State and federal regulators and officials are increasingly attentive to the possibility of market manipulation regarding banking equities," the source said.
    ...
    Short selling ... is not illegal and considered part of a healthy market. But manipulating stock prices, which the SEC has defined as the 'intentional or willful conduct designed to deceive or defraud investors by controlling or artificially affecting" stock prices, is.
    https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-officials-assessing-possible-manipulation-banking-shares-source-2023-05-04/
  • PacWest falls 50% after hours on report bank is weighing sale
    It’s on the rebound. Bottomed around $2.50 / Currently $3.94.
    (I owned it for about 3-4 hours today.) :)
    I agree this is crazy. Thundering herd for sure. Hopefully, they’ll find a buyer - soon.
  • PacWest falls 50% after hours on report bank is weighing sale
    May 3, 2023
    PACIFIC WESTERN BANK ISSUES UPDATE
    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
    ...
    The bank has not experienced out-of-the-ordinary deposit flows following the sale of First Republic Bank and other news. Core customer deposits have increased since March 31, 2023, with total deposits totaling $28 billion as of May 2, 2023 with insured deposits totaling 75% vs. 71% at quarter end and 73% as of April 24, 2023.
    It's not in the same class. Facts rarely halt the thundering herds, however, once they get started.
  • FDIC Proposals to Modify Deposit Insurance
    This was a few days ago but the decision is not in the FDIC's hands. Action must be by the Congress (legislative) or the Treasury (executive). But this issues is heating up again due to the ongoing regional banking contagion. It won't be over just because a few people say so.
    https://www.fdic.gov/news/press-releases/2023/pr23035.html
  • PacWest falls 50% after hours on report bank is weighing sale

    Google Finance, losers list, 5-4-23 @10:48
    Several banks on this list again today.
  • PacWest falls 50% after hours on report bank is weighing sale
    PACW Down 60% today to $2.57 (10:30 AM)
    Repeat after me … ”The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient.”
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/3/23
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/3/23
    For the week ending on 5/3/23, bearish remained the top sentiment (44.9%; high) & bullish remained the bottom sentiment (24.1%; low); neutral remained the middle sentiment (31.0%; near average); Bull-Bear Spread was -20.8% (low). Investor concerns: Inflation (moderating but high); economy; the Fed (hiked +25 bps); dollar; crypto regulations; market volatility (VIX, VXN, MOVE); Russia-Ukraine war (62+ weeks, 2/24/22- ); geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks were up, bonds up, oil down sharply, gold up, dollar flat. The Fed is at/near the end on rate hikes. The regional banking crisis continues as the underlying problems remain (underwater portfolios & fast runs). #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1030/thread
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (05/02/23)
    A tour of the markets covering the most important charts & themes, including the First Republic freefall, the housing market standstill, the #1 reason for renting, and more.
    Video
    Blog
  • PacWest falls 50% after hours on report bank is weighing sale
    ”PacWest Bancorp shares tumbled 53% in extended trading on Wednesday following a report that the bank is weighing strategic options, including a potential sale. The regional bank has been assessing options, including a breakup or a capital raise, according to a Bloomberg report citing sources familiar. A formal sale has yet to start as PacWest does not have many potential buyers interested in the whole firm, the report said.”
    CNBC
  • Money Stuff, by Matt Levine: Is ChatGPT securities fraud?
    Here's a fun one from Mr Levine's commentary on 5/3 -
    I suppose we will end up finding a number of answers to that question. Will some ChatGPT-style large language model manage to do some insider trading? Will it, like, ingest some corpus of data that includes inside information, and then use it to answer questions like “which stocks should I buy?” Will some big company’s corporate development department use the model to answer questions like “should we buy Company X and what price should we pay for it,” and will the developers of the model use that information nefariously? Will the model itself become sentient, get a Robinhood account and use that information nefariously? Etc.
    Or I mean will someone ask ChatGPT a question like “what companies are frauds,” and ChatGPT will cheerfully and confidently say “oh Company Y is a total fraud, their revenues are super inflated,” and then people will short the stock, and then it will turn out that Company Y is fine and ChatGPT is just really good at confidently making stuff up? Is that securities fraud? By whom? (Or: Ask “what stocks are good,” ChatGPT says “Company Z is great, they have found a cure for cancer and their revenue will double,” people buy the stock, it was all made up.) Will sell-side analysts or journalists use ChatGPT to do their work, and will ChatGPT introduce market-moving factual mistakes?
    Lots of fun possibilities. But the most immediate way in which ChatGPT is going to be securities fraud is the usual “everything is securities fraud” way:
    • 1) ChatGPT is going to be disruptive to some number of businesses and industries.
    • 2) Some companies will lose money because ChatGPT disrupts their business.
    • 3) This will be bad, for them, and their stocks will drop.
    • 4) Every bad thing that happens to a public company can be characterized as securities fraud: “You didn’t sufficiently warn us about the bad thing, so we bought the stock thinking it was good, but then the bad thing happened and the stock dropped, so we were defrauded.”
    ChatGPT risk factors are starting to be included in securities offering documents, and the risks are starting to be realized:
    Chegg Inc. plummeted 42% after warning that the ChatGPT tool is threatening growth of its homework-help services, one of the most notable market reactions yet to signs that generative AI is upending industries.
    The company, which offers online guidance for students taking tests and writing essays, also gave revenue and profit forecasts for the current quarter that fell well short of analysts’ estimates. Chegg makes much of its money from subscriptions, which start at $15.95 a month, a revenue source that’s in peril if students see AI chatbots as an alternative to paying.
    The impact of ChatGPT, an OpenAI tool that surged in popularity last year, began to be felt this spring, Chief Executive Officer Dan Rosensweig said in prepared remarks accompanying Chegg’s first-quarter earnings Monday.
    And I tell you what, when I see that a public company has announced bad news and its stock dropped, I look for the lawsuits. We are early yet — the stock dropped yesterday — but lawyers move fast; I have not yet seen any lawsuits filed, but at least two law firms have announced “investigations” of Chegg and are looking for clients.
    At this point the lawsuits seem a bit far-fetched: “You should have warned us months ago that artificial intelligence would hurt your business” is unfair given how quickly ChatGPT has exploded from nowhere to become a cultural and business phenomenon. But now everyone is on notice! If you are not warning your shareholders now about how AI could hurt your business, and then it does hurt your business, you’re gonna get sued.
  • FOMC Statement, 5/3/23
    NOTES
    Fed fund rate hike +25 bps (range 5.00-5.25%); discount rate 5.25%; bank reserve balance rate 5.15%. Data & events dependent policy flexibility is indicated going forward. The QT continues at -$60 billion/mo Treasuries, -$35 billion/mo MBS. The monetary policy is restrictive.
    Tight credit conditions at banks are being monitored. They may have the effect of some rate hikes, but that is unquantifiable.
    Inflation remains high, well above the Fed’s +2% average target. Inflation-expectations are now modest. Labor markets remain strong. There is excess demand. The FOMC will make decisions meeting-by-meeting, but cuts in 2023 won’t be appropriate.
    Economy has slowed down, but recession may be avoided.
    The US banking system is sound. This crisis has revealed some issues for small/medium banks, including unexpected & fast runs. The unsured institutional money moved out first, and now, the retail money is moving out gradually. With the resolutions of the 3 biggest problematic banks, the banking crisis may be near the end. VC Barr has the sole and distinct constitutional role on supervision, but Chair Powell & other members do provide input. The focus now is on how the problems can be avoided in the future. Barr’s report will be implemented to the extent possible. US bank consolidations have been happening for decades. It is desirable to have small, medium & large size banks. But specific crisis-merger decisions are by the FDIC & it chooses the least costly option(s), makes related selections & any decisions on required waivers.
    Use of the overnight reverse repos by the money-market funds is being watched.
    Debt-ceiling is a fiscal issue that must be addressed timely. Consequences of a US debt default would be unknown but severe, & no one should expect the Fed to protect from those.
    Powell isn’t dwelling on the past but wants to control the controllable going forward.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1029/thread
  • Eli Lilly: Experimental Alzheimer’s drug slows cognitive declines in large trial
    To me, the question isn't just of efficacy, but whether the government can force these pharamaceutical companies to lower their drug costs? Somehow I don't think a year's worth of this drug costs $25,000 to $58,000 to manufacture. I wonder what the profit margins will be on it, even after factoring in the R&D costs? If it's effective even somewhat, that matters. One thing I would add is the current annual cost of a private room in a nursing home is $108,408: https://health.usnews.com/best-nursing-homes/articles/how-to-pay-for-nursing-home-costs It is sad but true that the most expensive nursing home patients are ones with Alzheimer's as they can be physically healthy otherwise, but still be mentally unfit to care for themselves, becoming both a danger to themselves and others. So, unlike most elderly patients, they can end up in nursing homes for many months or even years. As strange as this sounds, the medicine, if it works, would be cheaper.
  • Eli Lilly: Experimental Alzheimer’s drug slows cognitive declines in large trial
    Certainly if every Alzheimer's patient on Medicare in the US received this drug, Medicare would be bankrupt very quickly. Part B premiums increased 14% in anticipation of the costs of Anduhelm two years ago, before CMS and FDA wisely decided to limit it's use to clinical trials.
    It is too early to decide if donanemab is cost effective, but at $25000 to $58,000 ( initial projected cost of Anduleum) a year, shouldn't we wait to see some data on cost reductions before wholesale approval?
    The limited information Lilly released ( press releases have a bigger effect on the stock price than a peer reviewed scientific article!) indicates it "stabilizes" cognitive decline, but does not reverse it. No information on how long this lasts. Hopefully a year of treatment will provide long lasting benefit, but there is no data.
    It is also not benign. 35% of patients had brain swelling and/or bleeding and at least three died. This is a common problem with these drugs. There may be ways to predict who is at most risk, but this is not a well tolerated medication.
    This country needs to have a serious discussion of the goals of Alzheimer's treatment and how many Billions of Medicare money we can afford to pay for it. But, of course it is unlikely this will occur. The Alzheimer's lobby said the FDA was "ignoring" Alzheimer's patient's medical needs when it put up "barriers at every turn" to prevent patients from receiving a drug that reduced the decline in a cognitive test by few points.
    The tortured course of Anduleum should be a warning of how aggressive the pharmaceutical industry, academics and patient advocates will be to force approval of drugs that show any possible benefit
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aducanumab
  • Eli Lilly: Experimental Alzheimer’s drug slows cognitive declines in large trial
    Stock's up 6% today, although the efficacy is far from 100%. Still, any help for this horrible disease deserves praise: https://cnn.com/2023/05/03/health/alzheimers-drug-donanemab-eli-lilly/index.html
    An experimental Alzheimer’s medication slowed declines in patients’ ability to think clearly and perform daily tasks by more than a third in a large clinical trial, drugmaker Eli Lilly said Wednesday.
    Based on the results, in people with early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease, Lilly said it plans to file for approval from the US Food and Drug Administration by the end of June.
    The medicine, donanemab, works by removing plaque buildups in the brain known as amyloid that are a hallmark of Alzheimer’s disease. However, there were some side effects reported; there were three deaths in the trial among people taking the drug, two of which were attributed to adverse events such as brain swelling or microhemorrhages, known as amyloid-related imaging abnormalities or ARIA. The trial was run in more than 1,700 patients for 18 months.
    Alzheimer's drug lecanemab receives accelerated approval amid safety concerns
    “For every medicine, for every disease, there are potential risks and potential benefits,” said Lilly’s chief scientific and medical officer, Dr. Daniel Skovronsky. But he noted that almost half of the participants taking the drug, 47%, showed no decline on a key measure of cognition over the course of a year, compared with 29% of people taking a placebo.
    That’s “the kind of efficacy that’s never been seen before in Alzheimer’s disease,” Skovronsky said.
    Alzheimer’s affects more than 6 million Americans, with an estimated 1.7 million to 2 million people over 65 in the early stages of the disease, according to Lilly. Drug development for Alzheimer’s has been riddled with failures, but Lilly’s drug is among a new group showing promise. The first, Eisai and Biogen’s Leqembi, received accelerated FDA approval in January.
  • Latest in Artificial Intelligence / AI Stock Picker
    (NOT a recommendation)
    What could possibly go wrong here?
    Candlestick takes the hard parts of investing out of your hands and puts money into them. Our advanced model constantly updates to give you weekly AI stock picks that outperform the market. The model, which incorporates dozens of metrics per stock, learns to pick stocks by training hundreds of times over past data until it can achieve superhuman results. To put it simply, Candlestick uses the power of AI to make the stock market work for regular people.
    Candlestick
    Note: It appears from 100+ reviews that this has been on the market about a year. Overall rating at Apple’s App Store is 4.5 / 5 (which is good). However, some disgruntled reviewers report losing a whole lot of money using this. One said one early pick fell 4% in a single day after he bought it. (Tried, unsuccessfully, to cut and paste some of the reviews)
  • What to do with a pension
    Your other post was on pension valuation which is a controversial concept. You don't need to do that at all.
    Instead, do an income-gap analysis. Add up all of your estimated annual expenses; subtract your VA pension, Social Security (if any; you didn't mention it), and any other steady income stream(s). The difference is the income-gap that has to be covered by your portfolio. Incidental expenses would be extra.
    I think you can handle $500K portfolio DIY. It may cost 1.0-1.50% on top of fund fees etc to use an advisor.
  • What to do with a pension
    I don’t post here much, but I do follow the website each day.
    So, in turn we are both turning 60 this year. I am military retired and work part time. My spouse works full-time for an insurance broker doing accounting procedures. I have been doing my own investing over the years and mine is at Fidelity and hers at T Rowe Price. I started hers at TRP when she was a green card holder and is now a dual citizen and has been this way for 20+ years.
    We are both in generally good health. I have my aches and pains left from the military though which are covered by the VA. Our medical insurance is through Tricare and the other insurances (dental, eyes, car & house) comes through her work at discounted price. We purchased long term care insurance a few years ago for a cheap price for $4k a month if we ever need it.
    Our current medical insurance is through Tricare (Humana Military). When we turn 65 will have to get Medicare as primary payer and Tricare for Life becomes secondary payer. We will continue to get our drugs through Medicare/Tricare
    So, my wife has suggested to me that I get an advisor to manage what we have so it lasts throughout our lives and have a good time traveling seeing friends and family. Not so quick, wifey, I think I’ve done a good job of investing and saving.
    Even took money out of Roth IRA and paid off the house, and this still leaves us over $1/2m to have a good time with.
    My military retired check covers all the bills including the insurance coverages, plus some left over. Her pay and my pay collect in savings accounts for vacations, household repairs etc.
    So, the odd question everyone has about their portfolio is what to do with it. Where do I put it? I had posted a thread under What is Pension worth: Old_Joe had mentioned to create a new thread in other investing in what to do with your portfolio now. We don’t have anyone to leave our money too, so now it’s time to spend it. But where do we put it.
    So here I am:
    Her’s
    PRWCX – Capital Appreciation
    PRHSX – Health Science
    PRFDX – Equity Income
    TREMX – Emerging Europe, bought it when price tanked 2.60 share
    PRSVX – Small Cap Value
    His
    VWENX – Wellington
    FSMEX – Medical Tech & Devices
    TRMCX – Mid Cap Value
    FIEUX – Europe Fund
    FSCOX – Small Cap Foreign
    FXAIX – S&P 500 Fund
  • The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
    Fine line between reality and make believe these days....
    So.
    All these bank issues remind me of what Marc Faber (the guy you don't see on the shill networks anymore because he speaks truth which don't agree with the political/social views of the censors I mean management of said networks) was saying in recent times.
    Said to Diversify. What does that mean. Get a good portion of your monies in another currency outside the dollar, US Stonk, Bond market...meaning you need to get your monies outside of the US, Canada, Aussie..the 5 eyes countries...
    Makes you wonder if he is right....and I would have no idea as to how to go about doing that...
    Good Luck to ALL