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+1 Thank you @Bobpa. It makes perfect sense put that way.I have it in my Schwab account and there are times when I want to move distributions from other funds into VWINX, but the $75.00 fee discourages that if the amount is not significant. That is the reason to look for another fund that is no-load.
This is the #1 reason why I refuse to hold bank preferreds. In good times, they're fine - but when the banks get into trouble (often at their own doing) they can nix or suspend the preferred dividend and treat our money (likely now trading for a capital loss on OUR books) like an interest-free loan that's likely going to remain (until it recovers value to us) on THEIR books.Long-term PFF chart from Twitter LINK. It is underperforming financials by a lot because of the concerns that noncumulative bank preferred may be worthless in the FDIC or other bank rescues.
It’s hard to come up with a better low-cost alternative than the highly regarded VWINX. Lots of good suggestions, In the end, it’s your decision. But changing horses mid-stream not always wise.”Since everyone’s situation is unique with respect to withdrawal needs., RMD, and investment horizon, the question is more on financial planning rather than a “drop-in” replacement with a different asset allocation fund.”
Good info.Last post @Bobpa posted on MFO was back in June 2022.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/151173/#Comment_151173
In this post, he talked about his portfolio and holdings where VWINX is one of the larger allocation fund. Bobpa is in his retirement and he is looking for a replacement for some reason that he did not specify on this post. Since everyone’s situation is unique with respect to withdrawal needs., RMD, and investment horizon, the question is more on financial planning rather than a “drop-in” replacement with a different asset allocation fund.
On Tuesday March 7, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., chair of the Subcommitee on Economic Policy, held a hearing on the debt limit, in which experts assessed its economic and financial consequences. In prepared testimony at the hearing, Mark Zandi, chief economist of the financial services company Moody's Analytics, said a default would be "a catastrophic blow to the already fragile economy."
Zandi warned of consequences akin to the Great Recession, including a roiled stock market that would cause market crashes, high interest rates and tanking equity prices. He said even if the default is quickly remedied, it would be too late to avoid a recession. Waiting too long to act could cause severe economic turmoil with global impacts.
The testimony included Moody's simulations of what an economic downturn could be, should the government default, casting a bleak view of the prospect that includes:
• Real GDP declines over 4% and diminished long-term growth prospects.
• 7 million jobs lost.
• Over 8% unemployment.
• Stock price decreases by almost a fifth, with households seeing a $10 trillion decline in wealth as a result.
• Spiking rates on treasury yields, mortgages and other consumer and corporate borrowing.
Further, Zandi expressed skepticism that lawmakers would be able to resolve their impasse quickly, as evidenced in part by the difficulty House Republicans had in electing McCarthy as speaker of the House. It took 15 rounds of voting for McCarthy to succeed.
"Odds that lawmakers are unable to get it together and avoid a breach of the debt limit appear to be meaningfully greater than zero," Zandi said in the testimony.
What would happen if the U.S. defaulted on debt?
If the default lasts for weeks or more, rather than days, it could trigger a fire-and-brimstone, Armageddon-level financial crisis for the U.S. and global economies.
A report from the White House Council of Economic Advisors in October 2021 warned of the possible effects of the U.S. defaulting, which include a worldwide recession, worldwide frozen credit markets, plunging stock markets and mass worldwide layoffs. The real gross domestic product, or GDP, could also fall to levels not seen since the Great Recession.
The U.S. has only defaulted once, in 1979, and it was an unintentional snafu — the result of a technical check-processing glitch that delayed payments to certain U.S. Treasury bond holders. The whole affair affected only a few investors and was remedied within weeks.
But the 1979 default was not intentional. And from the point of view of the global markets, there's a world of difference between a short-lived administrative snag and a full-blown default as a result of Congress failing to raise the debt limit.
A default could happen in two stages. First, the government might delay payments to Social Security recipients and federal employees. Next, the government would be unable to service its debt or pay interest to its bondholders. U.S. debt is sold to investors as bonds and securities to private investors, corporations or other governments. Just the threat of default would cause market upheaval: A big drop in demand for U.S. debt as its credit rating is downgraded and sold, followed by a spike in interest rates. The U.S. government would need to promise higher interest payments to justify the increased risk of buying and holding its debt.
Here’s what else you can expect to see if the U.S. defaults on its debt.
A sell-off of U.S. debt
A default could provoke a sell-off in debt issued by the U.S. government, considered among the safest and most stable securities in the world. Such a sell-off of U.S. Treasurys would have far-reaching repercussions.
Money market funds could sell out
Money market funds are low-risk, liquid mutual funds that invest in short-term, high-credit quality debt, such as U.S. Treasury bills. Conservative investors use these funds as they typically shield against volatility and are less susceptible to changes in interest rates.
In the past, investors have sold out of money market funds when the U.S. ran up against debt ceiling limits and signaled potential government default. Yields on shorter-term T-bills go up because they are impacted more compared with longer-term bonds, which give investors more time for markets to calm down.
Federal benefits would be suspended
In the event of a default, federal benefits would be delayed or suspended entirely.
Those include:
Social Security; Medicare and Medicaid; Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits; housing assistance; and assistance for veterans.
Stock markets would roil
A default would likely trigger a downgrade of the United States’ credit rating — the S&P downgraded the nation’s credit rating only once before, in 2011 when it was approaching default. The default combined with the downgraded credit rating would in turn cause the markets to tank, the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors said in 2021.
If current debt ceiling talks continue for too long, the markets are likely to become more volatile than they already are.
Interest rates would increase
As debt ceiling negotiations linger, Americans could see rates increase on consumer lending products, including credit cards and variable rate student loans.
Credit lenders may have less capital to lend or may tighten their standards, which would make it more difficult to get credit.
Depending on the timing of a default and how long the effects are felt, rates could increase on new fixed auto loans, federal or private student loans and personal loans.
Tax refunds could be delayed
If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, it could take more time for tax filers to receive their refunds — usually within 21 days of filing. If the government defaults, those who file late run a risk of not receiving their refund.
Housing rates would increase
A debt ceiling crisis won’t impact those with fixed-rate mortgages or fixed-rate home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs. But adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, holders may see rates rise even further than they already have — more than four percentage points on rate indexes since spring 2022. Those in the fixed period of their ARM can expect to see rates rise when reaching their first adjustment.
I agree. It's just another example of 'minority rule' disrupting the good workings of this country.@rforno
I think that applies to less than a majority of the GOP, maybe 20%. They hold influence because only 50% of people bother to vote
When your bank closes and the ATM is empty and your SS check doesn't arrive, I suspect people will notice.
The GOP will try to blame Biden, but whether this will work remains to be seen.
I still do not understand why the debt ceiling is not unconstitutional.
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