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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Former FCC Chair Newton Minow Dead at 97
    Newton N. Minow, who as President John F. Kennedy’s new F.C.C. chairman in 1961 sent shock waves through an industry and touched a nerve in a nation addicted to banality and mayhem by calling American television “a vast wasteland,” died on Saturday at his home in Chicago. He was 97 …
    On May 9, 1961, almost four months after President Kennedy called upon Americans to renew their commitment to freedom around the globe, Mr. Minow, a bespectacled bureaucrat who had recently been put in charge of the Federal Communications Commission, got up before 2,000 broadcast executives at a luncheon in Washington and invited them to watch television for a day.
    “Stay there without a book, magazine, newspaper, profit-and-loss sheet or rating book to distract you, and keep your eyes glued to that set until the station signs off,” Mr. Minow said. “I can assure you that you will observe a vast wasteland.”
    The audience sat aghast as he went on:
    “You will see a procession of game shows, violence, audience participation shows, formula comedies about totally unbelievable families, blood and thunder, mayhem, violence, sadism, murder, Western bad men, Western good men, private eyes, gangsters, more violence and cartoons. And endlessly, commercials — many screaming, cajoling and offending. And most of all, boredom.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/06/business/media/newton-n-minow-dead.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
    You may need a subscription to read. Upon request I’ll move this to OT if not deemed relevant to investing. Thanks for your patience.
  • AAAMCO Ultrashort Financing Fund to liqudate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/705318/000139834423009077/fp0083453-1_497.htm
    ASSET MANAGEMENT FUND
    (The "Trust")
    AAAMCO Ultrashort Financing Fund
    SUPPLEMENT DATED MAY 8, 2023
    TO PROSPECTUS DATED OCTOBER 28, 2022
    IMPORTANT NOTICE
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust (the "Board") has determined that, given the current asset size and market environment, it is in the best interests of the AAAMCO Ultrashort Financing Fund (the "Fund") to terminate and liquidate the Fund. Effective immediately, the Fund is closed to new investors and current shareholders may not make subsequent investments into the Fund, other than reinvestment of dividends. On May 31, 2023 or on such earlier date as determined by the President of the Trust, the Fund shall cease its operations and will begin winding up its business affairs. Any shareholders who remain in the Fund as of that date will have their shares redeemed on or about May 31, 2023 or on such earlier date as determined by the President of the Trust and the proceeds returned to them. Thereafter, the Fund will be liquidated and dissolved.
    This supplement SHOULD be retained with your Prospectus for future reference.
    ASSET MANAGEMENT FUND
    3 Canal Plaza, Suite 100
    Portland, ME 04101
  • VWINX
    I have it in my Schwab account and there are times when I want to move distributions from other funds into VWINX, but the $75.00 fee discourages that if the amount is not significant. That is the reason to look for another fund that is no-load.
    +1 Thank you @Bobpa. It makes perfect sense put that way.
    I don’t even own VWINX because Fido would hit me with a fee. From following the board many years I respect it for what it is. Has a good reputation. What I don’t do, generally, is sell a good, but underperforming fund, to buy another good, but outperforming, one. Generally, that will cost you longer term.
  • VWINX
    I have it in my Schwab account and there are times when I want to move distributions from other funds into VWINX, but the $75.00 fee discourages that if the amount is not significant. That is the reason to look for another fund that is no-load.
  • US banks are failing, and the authorities seem unlikely to intervene
    Long-term PFF chart from Twitter LINK. It is underperforming financials by a lot because of the concerns that noncumulative bank preferred may be worthless in the FDIC or other bank rescues.
    This is the #1 reason why I refuse to hold bank preferreds. In good times, they're fine - but when the banks get into trouble (often at their own doing) they can nix or suspend the preferred dividend and treat our money (likely now trading for a capital loss on OUR books) like an interest-free loan that's likely going to remain (until it recovers value to us) on THEIR books.
    I'm reminded of the scorpion-and-fox parable .... like the scorpion, banks just can't help themselves, because it's their nature.
  • US banks are failing, and the authorities seem unlikely to intervene
    Long-term PFF chart from Twitter LINK. It is underperforming financials by a lot because of the concerns that noncumulative bank preferred may be worthless in the FDIC or other bank rescues.
    image
  • In case of DEFAULT
    From Heather Cox Richardson's Letters from an American (05/04).

    "Meanwhile, the debt ceiling crisis has not gone away. Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines today told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on global threats that a U.S. default on our debts would enable both Russia and China to say 'such an event [demonstrates] the chaos within the United States, that we’re not capable of functioning as a democracy, and the governance issues associated with it.' She explained: 'It would be…almost a certainty that they would look to take advantage of the opportunity.'"
  • VWINX
    I probably wouldn’t replace it. All investments go through periods of overperformance and underperformance. The two alternatives you mention certainly have stellar records. INPFX gained over 38% during the 3 years from 2019 thru 2021. The likelihood of a repeat anytime soon would seem slim. That kind of outperformance leads me to suspect it is a riskier / more aggressive fund than VWINX.
    If you are still spread equally across 5 different funds (per some of your earlier posts), you should be able to continue holding VWINX during a period of underperformance. Eventually, it may make up lost ground - either by outdistancing many peers during favorable markets or by declining less than them if the bear market resumes.
    @Sven summed it up pretty well …
    Since everyone’s situation is unique with respect to withdrawal needs., RMD, and investment horizon, the question is more on financial planning rather than a “drop-in” replacement with a different asset allocation fund.”
    It’s hard to come up with a better low-cost alternative than the highly regarded VWINX. Lots of good suggestions, In the end, it’s your decision. But changing horses mid-stream not always wise.
  • VWINX
    Last post @Bobpa posted on MFO was back in June 2022.
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/151173/#Comment_151173
    In this post, he talked about his portfolio and holdings where VWINX is one of the larger allocation fund. Bobpa is in his retirement and he is looking for a replacement for some reason that he did not specify on this post. Since everyone’s situation is unique with respect to withdrawal needs., RMD, and investment horizon, the question is more on financial planning rather than a “drop-in” replacement with a different asset allocation fund.
    Good info.
    Might be best to leave things alone rather than start jumping around at that age.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    An excerpt:
    On Tuesday March 7, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., chair of the Subcommitee on Economic Policy, held a hearing on the debt limit, in which experts assessed its economic and financial consequences. In prepared testimony at the hearing, Mark Zandi, chief economist of the financial services company Moody's Analytics, said a default would be "a catastrophic blow to the already fragile economy."
    Zandi warned of consequences akin to the Great Recession, including a roiled stock market that would cause market crashes, high interest rates and tanking equity prices. He said even if the default is quickly remedied, it would be too late to avoid a recession. Waiting too long to act could cause severe economic turmoil with global impacts.
    The testimony included Moody's simulations of what an economic downturn could be, should the government default, casting a bleak view of the prospect that includes:
    • Real GDP declines over 4% and diminished long-term growth prospects.
    • 7 million jobs lost.
    • Over 8% unemployment.
    • Stock price decreases by almost a fifth, with households seeing a $10 trillion decline in wealth as a result.
    • Spiking rates on treasury yields, mortgages and other consumer and corporate borrowing.
    Further, Zandi expressed skepticism that lawmakers would be able to resolve their impasse quickly, as evidenced in part by the difficulty House Republicans had in electing McCarthy as speaker of the House. It took 15 rounds of voting for McCarthy to succeed.
    "Odds that lawmakers are unable to get it together and avoid a breach of the debt limit appear to be meaningfully greater than zero," Zandi said in the testimony.
    What would happen if the U.S. defaulted on debt?
    If the default lasts for weeks or more, rather than days, it could trigger a fire-and-brimstone, Armageddon-level financial crisis for the U.S. and global economies.
    A report from the White House Council of Economic Advisors in October 2021 warned of the possible effects of the U.S. defaulting, which include a worldwide recession, worldwide frozen credit markets, plunging stock markets and mass worldwide layoffs. The real gross domestic product, or GDP, could also fall to levels not seen since the Great Recession.
    The U.S. has only defaulted once, in 1979, and it was an unintentional snafu — the result of a technical check-processing glitch that delayed payments to certain U.S. Treasury bond holders. The whole affair affected only a few investors and was remedied within weeks.
    But the 1979 default was not intentional. And from the point of view of the global markets, there's a world of difference between a short-lived administrative snag and a full-blown default as a result of Congress failing to raise the debt limit.
    A default could happen in two stages. First, the government might delay payments to Social Security recipients and federal employees. Next, the government would be unable to service its debt or pay interest to its bondholders. U.S. debt is sold to investors as bonds and securities to private investors, corporations or other governments. Just the threat of default would cause market upheaval: A big drop in demand for U.S. debt as its credit rating is downgraded and sold, followed by a spike in interest rates. The U.S. government would need to promise higher interest payments to justify the increased risk of buying and holding its debt.
    Here’s what else you can expect to see if the U.S. defaults on its debt.
    A sell-off of U.S. debt
    A default could provoke a sell-off in debt issued by the U.S. government, considered among the safest and most stable securities in the world. Such a sell-off of U.S. Treasurys would have far-reaching repercussions.
    Money market funds could sell out
    Money market funds are low-risk, liquid mutual funds that invest in short-term, high-credit quality debt, such as U.S. Treasury bills. Conservative investors use these funds as they typically shield against volatility and are less susceptible to changes in interest rates.
    In the past, investors have sold out of money market funds when the U.S. ran up against debt ceiling limits and signaled potential government default. Yields on shorter-term T-bills go up because they are impacted more compared with longer-term bonds, which give investors more time for markets to calm down.
    Federal benefits would be suspended
    In the event of a default, federal benefits would be delayed or suspended entirely.
    Those include:
    Social Security; Medicare and Medicaid; Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, benefits; housing assistance; and assistance for veterans.
    Stock markets would roil
    A default would likely trigger a downgrade of the United States’ credit rating — the S&P downgraded the nation’s credit rating only once before, in 2011 when it was approaching default. The default combined with the downgraded credit rating would in turn cause the markets to tank, the White House’s Council of Economic Advisors said in 2021.
    If current debt ceiling talks continue for too long, the markets are likely to become more volatile than they already are.
    Interest rates would increase
    As debt ceiling negotiations linger, Americans could see rates increase on consumer lending products, including credit cards and variable rate student loans.
    Credit lenders may have less capital to lend or may tighten their standards, which would make it more difficult to get credit.
    Depending on the timing of a default and how long the effects are felt, rates could increase on new fixed auto loans, federal or private student loans and personal loans.
    Tax refunds could be delayed
    If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, it could take more time for tax filers to receive their refunds — usually within 21 days of filing. If the government defaults, those who file late run a risk of not receiving their refund.
    Housing rates would increase
    A debt ceiling crisis won’t impact those with fixed-rate mortgages or fixed-rate home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs. But adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, holders may see rates rise even further than they already have — more than four percentage points on rate indexes since spring 2022. Those in the fixed period of their ARM can expect to see rates rise when reaching their first adjustment.
  • Concentration in the Stock Market
    +1
    The value penalty has been seriously real for over 45y, sc too, seems to me
  • Concentration in the Stock Market
    Periodically, the S&P 500 becomes concentrated in its top holdings.
    This is a feature, not a bug, of cap-weighted indexes.
    The top 10 holdings in the S&P 500 comprised 27% of the index as of April 27, 2023.
    The S&P 500 returned 8.3% YTD (through April 27).
    The top 10 holdings contributed 6.0% of the return while all other holdings contributed only 2.3%.
    Fundamental indexes (weighted by earnings, revenue, dividends, etc.) attempt to circumvent concentration risk.
    These alternate-weighted indexes often have value and/or small-size factor tilts.
    Concentration risk may be eliminated but other risks are introduced.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @rforno
    I think that applies to less than a majority of the GOP, maybe 20%. They hold influence because only 50% of people bother to vote
    When your bank closes and the ATM is empty and your SS check doesn't arrive, I suspect people will notice.
    The GOP will try to blame Biden, but whether this will work remains to be seen.
    I still do not understand why the debt ceiling is not unconstitutional.
    I agree. It's just another example of 'minority rule' disrupting the good workings of this country.
    I don't think that blaming Biden for a default would stick, either. And I've read this morning that the WH hasn't removed invoking the 14th Amendment from the table ... or letting it go into the courts and let SCOTUS ultimately rule that a default is a constitutional violation -- which would also give Biden cover since it's not *him* or the D's that are making the decision here, it's the judiciary, such that it is.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @rforno
    I think that applies to less than a majority of the GOP, maybe 20%. They hold influence because only 50% of people bother to vote
    When your bank closes and the ATM is empty and your SS check doesn't arrive, I suspect people will notice.
    The GOP will try to blame Biden, but whether this will work remains to be seen.
    I still do not understand why the debt ceiling is not unconstitutional.
  • SMILE: BUFFETT Other people doing dumb things
    Can't disagree with the primary statement. A short video at page top after 15 second ad.
    Text and video, Mr. Buffett
  • % or $
    One can live off dollars, one can’t on percentages. Although I understand on an abstract level removed from your actual life, it’s “all about math,” in reality in one’s life, it is not at all. This is especially so if one worked for those dollars, spent the fleeting hours of one’s life earning them.
    Psychologically, it’s quite interesting. Think about if you found $100 on the street and lost it versus if you worked eight hours, gave your entire day to earning that $100 and then lost it. Would it feel the same? It’s why when losses eat into the principal you invested instead of just erasing gains you already made on top of your principal it feels worse. And losing $50,000 is always going to feel worse than $100 even if in percentage terms they’re the same, especially if that $50,000 is the equivalent to a year’s salary for many Americans and they now need to live off that $50,000 in retirement.
  • Concentration in the Stock Market
    Mike Wilson, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, has noted the spread between S&P 500 index and RSP index has increased since the beginning of the year. (He is one of the most bearish analyst out there and get ignored often). This implies that only a handful of large cap stocks are pushing the cap-weight index forward and masking the remaining 490 stocks. These are the tech stocks and they are trading at high valuation. This trend IMHO is not healthy as one would like to see a broad-based movement of all stocks that indicates a healthy economy. Earning reporting over the last several weeks is revealing the slowing and in some cases a downward trend.
    This reminds me of the internet stocks during the run up of 2000. CNBC was cheerleading the Nasdaz moving passed 5,000 as bubble grew and grew (>800%) Then came October 2000 the dotcom bubble burst, and Nasdaz gave up all its gains during the bubble (740%). Will this time be differs than previous market cycles? I think we are heading into a recession and the severity is unknown.
  • VWINX
    Covering 11 years of total returns, there is not much different in the 3 you noted. Yes, they will travel slightly different paths during a 6 month or 1 year time frame, but this is the nature of management investment choices and market valuations during such periods. The largest spread over the entire time frame is 5.3% more return for WBALX vs VWINX. As noted previous; have you a serious reason to desire changing funds ?
    VWINX , INPFX , and WBALX chart from May 18, 2012 to May 5, 2023.
  • % or $
    Hover over the date field and it shows 11/5/22, 1:15 PM.