Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Unconfirmed Reports of Expanding War Rattle Foreign Markets and U.S. Futures
    It appears that Israel has responded to Iran’s attack. This may widen the Middle East conflict.
    https://npr.org/2024/04/18/1245763498/israel-iran-missile-strikes
    Futures of oil and precious metals went up accordingly.
    Edits: 10 year treasury yield rose to 4.64%, the highest in 2024.
  • Unconfirmed Reports of Expanding War Rattle Foreign Markets and U.S. Futures
    FINVIZ offers some guidance as of 10:30 EST, Thursday evening.
    I happened to watch this interview this early evening on CNN. Erin Burnett's interview with Iran's foreign minister during the 7pm period, and perhaps 'whatever' was already in motion.
  • Unconfirmed Reports of Expanding War Rattle Foreign Markets and U.S. Futures
    Stocks Down, Bonds Up Sharply, Oil Hits $90, Gold & Safe-Havens Up
    Bloomberg / ABC / WSJ and others are citing numerous unconfirmed reports of an Israeli missile attack on Iran tonight (April 19). There are also a few unconfirmed reports. of explosions in Syria and Iraq. Japan’s Nikkei plunged 3% at the open. Other Asian markets down sharply. U.S. stock futures down well over 1% - with NASDAQ futures off over 1.5%. Oil has soared to $90. Gold has advanced past $2400. U.S.10-year bond rate has plunged overnight (bonds higher). The Yen has jumped 5% against the Dollar, Swiss Franc Up
    U.S. Officials confirm …
    Sleep well …
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    DJT has filed instructions on how to prevent shorting of the stock.
    2 steps are common and typical - move stock to the cash side (from the margin side), discontinue securities lending program.
    2 other steps mentioned may have fees - moving stock to the transfer agent or bank.
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000114036124020401/ny20026576x5_8k.htm
    That's not something you see every day. Methinks there's a sense of panic in the air......as there should be when promoting a meme stock with zero (or even negative) fundamentals.
    Too funny.
    Edit: Here's their IR FAQ page with guidance. LOL
    https://ir.tmtgcorp.com/faq/
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    DJT has filed instructions on how to prevent shorting of the stock.
    2 steps are common and typical - move stock to the cash side (from the margin side), discontinue securities lending program.
    2 other steps mentioned may have fees - moving stock to the transfer agent or bank.
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001849635/000114036124020401/ny20026576x5_8k.htm
  • CD
    VUSXX has virtually the same yield as VMFXX (this has been true for several months), and is mostly state tax exempt.
    In a moderate (5%) to high (10%) income tax state, the fund can save 20-40 basis points in taxes (assuming the fund is 80% invested in Treasuries and yields stay above 5%). It may not be worth shopping different institutions to gain a few basis points, but moving from VMFXX to VUSXX can be done overnight and doesn't involve multiple institutions.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/money-markets#mm-rates
    Of course this only makes sense in a taxable account.
    Can VUSXX be used as settlement fund at Vanguard?
  • CD
    I don't worry about government m-mkt funds with $1 NAV. Without the fear of gates, retail-prime m-mkt funds with $1 NAV will be fine too.
    For the most part, I agree with Yogi. My qualification is that liquidity is somewhat in the mind of the beholder. In my mind, I wasn't particularly concerned about the theoretical possibility of gates, just as I am not concerned about the current theoretical seven day notice requirement to get money out of a bank savings account or the current theoretical seven days it could take a MMF to deliver cash upon share redemption (see any MMF prospectus).
    Fidelity didn't seem to be concerned about gates when they existed. At Fidelity, you can keep all your cash in a "non-core" prime MMF and Fidelity will consider that the same as cash for all purposes. That is, you can use it to settle trades, write checks, etc. I asked Fidelity what it would do if I made a trade on Mon, and before settlement on Wed my prime fund implemented a gate (so settlement cash wouldn't be available on Wed). Fidelity's honest response was "we don't know".
    OTOH, the possibility of redemption fees on MMFs still exists, though in a different form than before. "non-government money market funds must impose a discretionary liquidity fee if the fund’s board (or its delegate) determines that a fee is in the best interest of the fund." (I leave it to readers to figure out what a mandatory discretionary fee is.) This just became effective April 2.
    https://institutional.fidelity.com/app/proxy/content?literatureURL=/9910956.PDF
    https://www.sec.gov/files/33-11211-fact-sheet.pdf
    Personally, I suspect I may be more likely to go down in a Boeing plane than to lose money in a MMF, though that's just a gut reaction.
  • The MOVE Index - Please Share your Insight
    I checked it years ago and I could not prove it helped me and why I stopped following it, my link includes what have worked for me very well...but...I looked again and now I see that MOVE > 110 has a nice correlation to high volatility in bonds and in most cases typical high-rated bonds don't do well.
    On 3-2-2020 it was at 125 = sell everything = correct. The week before it was already over 110.
    End of 02/2022 it was over 130 = sell and continue to get higher with some lower volatility.
    Also at the end of 2007, it was over 130 and higher in 2008.
    OK, I was wrong.
    (link)
    Key Takeaways
    The bond market tends to signal significant changes ahead of the equity market
    MOVE is 'the VIX for Bonds, by having a history of solid signals regarding the sentiment of the bond market
    MOVE can be used in conjunction with the VIX (explained below) to define general market risk and investor sentiment
  • CD
    M-mkt regulations are quite tough now. Look around, there are hardly any small m-mkt funds - they have been merged or liquidated. It was unheard of just few years ago for firms to offer m-mkt funds from other firms, but now, some even offer a menu of m-mkt funds from other firms (ML/BoA, E*Trade/MS, etc). Sure, Fidelity, Schwab, Vanguard still offer their own m-mkt funds, but many firms don't have that choice.
    And m-mkt reforms are ongoing, especially for gates for retail-prime m-mkt funds and other aspects for institutional-prime m-mkt funds (with floating NAVs).
    I don't worry about government m-mkt funds with $1 NAV. Without the fear of gates, retail-prime m-mkt funds with $1 NAV will be fine too.
    For liquid part of fixed-income, one can look broadly at a mix of m-mkt funds, T-Bills, short-term CDs, ultra ST bond funds. It isn't a good idea to rely entirely on any one of these, or to claim that one would never have x or y or z.
    BTW, institutions are stuck with m-mkt funds and T-Bills (ask Warren Buffett) because what will do with limited FDIC insurance, now restricted to 5x per account per bank with all sort of tricks.
  • CD
    I am redeeming cds as they mature and moving the cash to my VG MM fund, 5.27%. If cds start paying better than the MM, I may invest again at my cu. I only buy cds at my credit union. It has always paid a good rate. I will not shop around for a few tenths of a percent.
    I struggle a bit with how much money I want to hold in a Brokerage MM fund. None of it is insured, so you have to basically trust that the brokerage investors will do an excellent job of how to keep the MM money as safe as possible, without government insurance for protection. The great majority of my brokerage investments are in an IRA, and in general I choose to only hold an amount in my MM that equals the RMD amount for that year. Everybody has their system they believe in, but for now, I prefer the safety FDIC insurance of my CDs, even though I might get "a few tenths of a percent" more in that MM.
  • CD
    VUSXX has virtually the same yield as VMFXX (this has been true for several months), and is mostly state tax exempt.
    In a moderate (5%) to high (10%) income tax state, the fund can save 20-40 basis points in taxes (assuming the fund is 80% invested in Treasuries and yields stay above 5%). It may not be worth shopping different institutions to gain a few basis points, but moving from VMFXX to VUSXX can be done overnight and doesn't involve multiple institutions.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/money-markets#mm-rates
    Of course this only makes sense in a taxable account.
  • CD
    Callable CDs at Schwab are paying more than MMs. I'm buying 1-year CDs where the 1st "possible" call date is 6 months from now, at 5.5%.
  • CD
    I am redeeming cds as they mature and moving the cash to my VG MM fund, 5.27%. If cds start paying better than the MM, I may invest again at my cu. I only buy cds at my credit union. It has always paid a good rate. I will not shop around for a few tenths of a percent.
  • IRS Waiver of Annual RMD for Inherited Retirement Accounts
    There was indeed confusion in early-2021 and there were revised versions of IRS Publication 590-B [
    As you wrote in the cited link, "So, this new 590-B dated 3/25/21 makes things clear."
    Hence the original two year transition waiver through the end of 2022.
    If the rules have been clear since 3/25/21, then ISTM that by providing additional waivers for 2023 and then 2024, all the IRS is doing is rewarding people who didn't read rules that were clear for two years or more at the time they were required to take RMDs (2023 and later).
  • IRS Waiver of Annual RMD for Inherited Retirement Accounts
    There was indeed confusion in early-2021 and there were revised versions of IRS Publication 590-B. See the contemporaneous discussion at another site. So, it wasn't just the matter of carefully reading the regulations.
    https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/373/irs-new-guidance-rmds-rule
  • IRS Waiver of Annual RMD for Inherited Retirement Accounts
    To be clear here (somewhat ironic choice of words), the IRS is rewarding failure to read the rules by waiving a rule for another year.
    Some individuals who are owners of inherited IRAs ... [misunderstood] the new 10-year rule. ... Specifically, [they] expected that the [new] 10-year rule would operate like the [old] 5-year rule. [They though that] there would not be any RMD due for a calendar year until the last year of the 5- or 10-year period following the ... death of the eligible ... beneficiary. ...
    [B]eneficiaries of individuals who died in 2020 explained that they did not take an RMD in 2021 and were unsure of whether they would be required to take an RMD in 2022. [They] asserted that ... the Treasury Department and the IRS should provide transition relief for failure to take distributions that are RMDs due in 2021 or 2022
    https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-24-35.pdf
    Fair enough. To avoid penalizing beneficiaries due to initial confusion about the new rule, the IRS provided a two year period where penalties were waived.
    Apparently two years weren't enough for some taxpayers. The IRS extended the waiver for 2023, and now again for 2024. As near as I can see, there was no additional rationale given beyond that used for the initial transition waiver.
    Note that the same rules apply to inherited employer-sponsored plans (401(k)s, 403(b)s).
  • IRS Waiver of Annual RMD for Inherited Retirement Accounts
    IRS Waiver of Annual RMD for Inherited Retirement Accounts
    STRETCH went away (SECURE Act) for most INHERITED retirement accounts; there are important exceptions for ELIGIBLE beneficiaries that include spouses & minors. There was initial confusion for the new 10-yr Rule to empty most inherited retirement plan balances whether the annual RMDs will be still required. The IRS flip-flopped on this & now has resorted to ad-hoc annual WAIVERS. So, we now have a waiver for 2024 RMDs from inherited accounts for the 4th year. What a joke!
    https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2024/04/17/irs-waives-2024-rmds-for-ira-beneficiaries-under-10-year-rule/
    https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-24-35.pdf
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (04/12/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:18 Topics
    00:57 Inflation Heating Up
    08:43 The Most Absurd # in CPI
    10:53 See You in September (Fed Cut Pushed Back)
    17:28 The Higher For Longer Impact
    20:59 The Start of a Correction?
    27:24 Correlation ≠ Returns
    30:53 Reversion to the Meme
    32:54 Fast Food Isn't Cheap Anymore
    37:13 Rising Donations
    Video
    Blog
  • The MOVE Index - Please Share your Insight
    Unfortunately Move isn't accurate and can't tell you when to get out in a timely manner and why I don't look at it.
    Link
    Your link provided doesn't even mention MOVE, so it's unclear what you tested and why it "isn't accurate"?
    Every data point doesn't have to provide a simplistic buy/sell strategy.
    Your link for short-term momentum stuff mentions only VIX that is a volatility measure for SP500 (there are several other stock-VIX too), while MOVE is a volatility measure Treasury yields - those have been quite volatile (and then there was 2022). With your bond-heavy approach, maybe you should look at MOVE more.
  • CD
    Bought an 18 month non-callable CD this week at Schwab, to replace one that matured last week. The CD pays 5% interest, and is from an A rated bank. The 18 month CD fits well into a CD ladder I have in place. As a retired person, I am very comfortable buying CDs, which pay at least 5%, from banks with a strong financial rating.