Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Vanguard in 2023
    It used to be (until 2015 or so?) that Vanguard would provide Voyager Select and Flagship customers with a free financial plan. After reviewing the basic survey that a customer filled out, a CFP would discuss the customer's situation over the phone for about an hour. There would be shorter followup conversations, before and after the plan was prepared.
    The plan was not cookie-cutter, at least in the sense that it provided for keeping a lot of non-Vanguard assets, both individual stocks and funds. The plan offered suggestions on how to deal with specific (overweighted) individual stock holdings. Vanguard said it had tools to help the DIY investor implement the plan on their own, or that Vanguard could manage the portfolio for the investor.
    I didn't mention specific financial planning because this particular service was discontinued years ago and I don't know whether a service like this is integrated into Vanguard's current service offering.
  • Jamie Cuellar, CFA, passed away (Buffalo Funds)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1135300/000089418923003709/buffalosticker51523.htm
    Buffalo Funds
    Supplement dated May 15, 2023
    to the
    Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    dated July 29, 2022, as previously supplemented
    The Buffalo Funds regret to inform shareholders that Jamie Cuellar, CFA, a co-portfolio manager of the Small Cap Fund since 2015 and of the Discovery Fund since April 2020, unexpectedly and tragically passed away on May 8, 2023. Jamie spent more than 30 years as part of the investment management industry, including the last 8 with Kornitzer Capital Management, Inc. (“KCM”). The Funds and KCM are grateful for all of Jamie’s contributions. He will be greatly missed.
    Please note all references to Mr. Cuellar in the Funds’ Prospectus and SAI are deleted in their entirety.
    The Small Cap Fund continues to be managed by Robert Male, CFA, and the Discovery Fund continues to be managed by Dave Carlsen, CFA.
    Please retain this supplement with your Prospectus and SAI
    Picture:
    https://buffalofunds.com/team/jamie-cuellar/
  • The Case For International Diversification
    Dollar diversification is one of the reasons for foreign exposure. Dollar has been strong for last several years, but may have peaked in September 2022. Since then, the pattern is of a decline (look at declining 50d-MA and 200-dMA) with wiggles up/down.
    As has been noted, strong dollar is a headwind for foreign funds held by the US investors, while weak dollar provides tailwind. The currency-hedged foreign funds become popular in strong dollar eras.
    But currency movements/trends are hard to predict.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p35088383212
  • The Case For International Diversification
    FMIJX is an international equity fund which hedges currency (most foreign funds don't hedge).
    The strong U.S. dollar provided a tailwind for FMIJX.
    FMI introduced an unhedged version of its International Fund (FMIFX) on 12/31/2019.
    The link below shows the portfolio backtest results for both funds.
    FMIJX vs. FMIFX
  • The Case For International Diversification
    FMIJX has had two unusually bad patches (2020) and (2022) surrounded by some very strong years verses its peers.
    fmijx/performance
    Not International, but "Global Investing without the indigestion" might be another approach for diversifying away from the US:
    investing-without-an-ulcer
  • The Case For International Diversification
    There’s a whole other issue of whether the fund is dollar hedged, partially so, or not at all. You can find international funds in each camp depending on whether or not you want to hedge against potential dollar weakness. If you believe the dollar will remain strong, use dollar-hedged funds.
    Buffet sold a lot of U.S. stocks first quarter, but increased his holdings in Japan. I suspect part of his thinking involves relative currency valuations (dollar vs yen).
    Another question is how much of a premium you’re willing to pay for a more diversified portfolio. ISTM that if all of your investments are rising together there’s a pretty good chance that at some future date they will all decline together.
    It’s interesting that some really accomplished heads of corporations look out 5-10 years when making spending decisions about acquisitions, expensive new infrastructure, new streams of income. But a lot of us (self included) react to gains / losses much nearer term. I mention that only because international investing involves calculated longer term risk taking. Past may not be precursor to future.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    Very good analysis of massive benefits Middle and upper classes get from the government, while the poor get blamed for being lazy.
    Reducing the deficit will certain gore someone's sacred ox
    https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2023/04/20/the-high-cost-of-being-poor-matthew-desmond/?printpage=true
    According to recent data compiling spending on social insurance, means-tested programs, tax benefits, and financial aid for higher education, the average household in the bottom 20 percent of the income distribution receives roughly $25,733 in government benefits a year, while the average household in the top 20 percent receives about $35,363. Every year, the richest American families receive almost 40 percent more in government subsidies than the poorest American families.
    Taken from Desmond's new book Poverty, by America
  • Treasury Direct customer service
    Fortunately, I registered my wife and daughter at the time I bought the I-Bonds for them, but the process for creating gift accounts is confusing so that didn’t happen. Also you had to wait at least 5 business days after buying the bonds to transfer them, so I couldn’t do it at the time of purchase. I do remember indicating that they were gifts when I purchased them, but apparently did follow the correct procedures to have them show up in gift accounts. I was dreading having to go through a messy process to get them correctly classified as gifts and transferred, but it wasn’t difficult with guidance from the TD rep.
  • Treasury Direct customer service
    Last year I bought three batches of I-Bonds, one in my name and two intended as gifts for my wife and daughter. Apparently I did something wrong, and no gift accounts were created, although my holdings showed three separate holdings. I tried to figure out how to reclassify these as gifts using the TD website but got nowhere. So I finally broke down and called Treasury Direct this morning.
    My experience was very positive. I expected a hold time, and it turned out to be just as long as the recording advised me — 15 minutes. The rep was friendly, helpful and knew exactly what to do. He walked me through each step patiently, and I was able to reclassify two batches of the bonds as gifts and transfer them to my wife and daughter. This all took about 10 minutes.
    The I-Bonds for my daughter were a wedding present, so she can do whatever she pleases with them.
  • Dip Buyers Scorched by Cratering Bank Stocks Head for the Exits - Bloomberg
    Regional bank KRE is in mid-30s again (as in early-May). I think that is good price for it - but after an initial position in early-May, I am not adding to it here. The downside is 2020/pandemic-low in mid-20s. The upside is if there is a comprehensive reform on the FDIC insurance coverage.
    This is like catching a falling knife. So, don't just jump on it.
    Right now, the FDIC has a few proposals on deposit-reforms, and the Treasury (so, the White House) and the Fed are reviewing those. The FDIC is also proposing temporary fees on banks to recover its costs of covering ALL deposits (that it didn't have to do) in the rescues of 3 failed regional banks (SVB, Signature, First Republic). Of course, this cannot continue on ad-hoc banks as more regional banks fail - PACW seems to be in trouble now.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KRE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27896665771
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    But please leave out the widely understood part about past performance being no guarantee of future results. Got that part.
    Ok, but that's exactly what you based your whole argument on. Past 3-5 year performance.
    I do agree with everyone else though that with CD's at 5%, it's hard to take on more risk to get 6, 7 or 8% as rates plateau or start to come down. But it may be close to that time IMHO. I do believe the next 3-5 years will not look like the past 3-5 years. Extrapolate YTD returns on some of these funds now and it shows returns growing greater than 5% for the year.
    The only bond fund I've held on to over the past couple years is in my withdrawal bucket, RPHYX. I recently added RGHYX and SAMBX to that bucket in small dosage. A couple TIP funds too, but that bucket still consist of more than 50% in 3-12 month treasuries, CDs and MM. I'll add, because it's not talked about much, also a nice consistent player in this bucket has been SPC, Crossing Bridge Pre-Merger SPAC ETF.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    I dumped my TIPs bond fund but holding the rest of them, about 35% of my total portfolio. Most bond funds now have healthy yields, and I think the worst of the slaughter is probably over. I am holding more cash in money markets and CDs than ever before. I expect bond funds to produce excellent total returns when and if interest rates stabilize and potentially drop.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?

    ....
    It is hard to beat 4 to 4.5%
    =====================================
    With taxable and municipal bond funds, indeed it is.
    -------------------
    Here's a link to the 1,921 taxable bond funds that Fido currently offers.
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/overview/averageAnnualReturnsYear5/desc/1?assetClass=TBND&category=BL,CI,CL,CS,EB,FX,GI,GL,GS,HY,IB,IP,MU,NT,PI,RR,TW,UB,WH,XF,XP&order=assetClass,category
    For kicks, sort them by descending 5-yr total returns.
    Note that only 11/1,921, or 0.57% exceeded TRs of 4.50% for the past 5 years.
    -------------------
    Here's a link to the 903 municipal bond funds that Fido currently offers.
    https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/overview/averageAnnualReturnsYear5/desc/1?assetClass=MBND&category=HM,MC,MF,MI,MJ,ML,MM,MN,MO,MP,MS,MT,MY,SI,SL,SM,SS&order=assetClass,category
    For kicks, sort them by descending 5-yr total returns.
    Note that only 0/903, or 0.00% exceeded TRs of 4.50% for the past 5 years.
    -------------------
    Read it again s-l-o-w-l-y and try to understand it.
    Then s-l-o-w-l-y try to explain why an investor, going forward, should invest in either taxable or municipal bond funds in their portfolio's fixed income sleeve instead of say, 5-yr, 4.50%, non-callable CDs.
    But please leave out the widely understood part about past performance being no guarantee of future results. Got that part.
  • Dip Buyers Scorched by Cratering Bank Stocks Head for the Exits - Bloomberg
    Well! I've learned some lessons through the years. I cannot sell my smallish, mid-sized bank stock at THIS point. (Stick out foot, then pull trigger.) ...I did unload a true beast: PRISX. TRP Financials, though. I redeployed the money, not taking it out. When I get some spare cash again at the head of the month of June, I'll be buying more of BHB. They've even managed to RAISE the dividend a tiny bit. P/E stands at 7.23. And P/B is 0.84. Price-to-cash-flow = 5.96. Trailing div is 5.81%. (That last one is surely connected to the fall in the share price.) The geniuses at Morningstar say I'm holding a stock that sits at 33% less than its true value. Market cap = 343.7588 Mil. Call me stubborn. But this one I can see is a "keeper." This crisis will pass, like the others. And I sense that it's a GOOD thing that this stock is not in the news.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @msf In addition to the evidence you provide about Dem vs Rep budgeting, there have been a number of studies refuting the 1998 research @Baseball_Fan cites by Feldstein and Wrobel regarding progressive tax policies, income inequality and wealth migration:
    https://cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/tax-flight-is-a-myth
    https://researchgate.net/publication/4731605_Do_Redistributive_State_Taxes_Reduce_Inequality
    While it is possible for a billionaire to leave a high tax country for a low tax one with relative ease, it is far less likely for the average high-earning wealthy person to do this. Among the reasons is that normally people are usually later in their lives when they are at their peak earnings levels, and have established important career and business ties in their local area that are not so easy to rebuild in a new state. Moreover, moving is a pain, and causes disruption of family and friends.
    The evidence indicates that Feldstein and Wrobel's research was skewed by the fact that progressive tax states already had high levels of income inequality to begin with before such taxes were enacted. It is one of the reasons the taxes were enacted in the first place. The taxes reduce inequality, but there remains often a higher than average level of income inequality in such states. No tax is going to fix the difference between a Silicon Valley millionaire/billionaire and the average person. But it eases the pain.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    The state budget/pension situation is why I gleefully bought into the 403(b) option versus the state pension when I joined the uni system. Not only was the 403b portable and fully-vested immediately, but if I was going to lose (or make) money, I wanted to be the one responsible, not some politically-appointed state investment board who might, for example, think 25% or more in high-priced hedge funds is a good idea.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Yes I maintain a little in a global bond fund and also hold a high yield mini fund. They’ve long been part of a well diversified low risk portfolio. Bonds & bond funds got whacked in 2022. Worst year for bonds I can remember in more than 25 years of managing my own investments. That didn’t deter me from keeping the same allocation. Since my total allocation to all fixed income (cash and bonds) is only 20% you might assume there’s not a whole lot in bond funds. Where possible, I favor multi-asset allocation and alternative investment funds to either pure fixed income or stock funds.
    *Note: I also hold a convertible bond fund. That’s considered an “alternative” type investment and so is not included in the above fixed income amount.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    yes, even h.y. munis give 4.15 now. HYMU...although i don't own it.
    I keep some bond funds, yes. I'm not the sort that reacts and makes moves based on the macro picture------much. SCHP tips and HYDB junk. And prcpx & tuhyx, both junk. I bought into tuhyx at just the wrong time. i held on, and it's very slowly rising for me. attractive dividends.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    State budgets have to follow the rules of economics, because they cannot print money. CT was running neck and neck with IL for the most indebted state
    consequently, taxes went way up, real estate shriveled ( housing prices were flat from 1987 to 2019!) and people left.
    A moderate Democrat has refused the left wing's demand to spend more, and the pension deficit is easing.
    Massachusetts was in similar shape in the past but they have a flat rate income tax, passed a law preventing town budgets from rising more than 2 1/2% without voter consent and they let loose Harvard and MIT Biotech and they are no longer Taxachussets.
    But with the Covid budget surplus, the politicians want to spend again and they haven't learned their lesson
    There are massive amounts of money that can be cut in the Federal budget, if the corporate hogs were kept away from the trough.
    Medicare is a prime example. The US spends twice as much as any other country on health care, with worse results.
    "Of the 10 highest paid among all corporate executives in the US in 2020, 3 were from Oak Street Health, and salary and benefits included, reportedly, $568 million for the chief executive officer (CEO). Executives in large hospital systems commonly have salaries and benefits of several million dollars a year."
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2801097
    The budget busting Alzheimer's drugs are just the start.